Lucid Production

Sandvinsd

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Looks like the mods closed the previous thread. Saw this article today and it is quite damming for Lucid investors With the current production numbers. Everything in the article is very factual.

 
While all the things in there are factual, I think it is missing some key points. Firstly, Lucid is a luxury brand, and while volume is great for investors and the numberbooks, Lucid has sort of implied from the start that volume isn't their primary aim; that's why they're starting with an expensive flagship product. They could have started with a $25k car and gained millions of reservations, but that was not the point of Lucid. It shouldn't need to compete with Polestar and Rivian on deliveries yet, because they are in completely different price brackets. This isn't to say that I wouldn't be absolutely delighted if Lucid could increase their delivery, reservation and production numbers. It also omits that Lucid has the 50-100k orders from the Saudi Government, so they could probably easily move all the cars parked in the factory lot if they did suddenly run out of reservation holders. That's not to mention the fact that the PIF seems to have a vested interest in seeing Lucid succeed, so I have no doubt they would do anything they could to help Lucid. I disagree that $3.25 is a fair valuation for Lucid's stock price. Peter Rawlinson has made a point I find very accurate; Lucid and Tesla are tech companies, not just car companies. Expecting Lucid to deliver 20k very expensive cars to customers is a bit unfair in my eyes. If Lucid continues having problems with finding customers once it moves down market to cheaper cars, then I would have reason for concern, but at this point in time, I'm not that bothered by slower production in this time of economic downturn.
 
Looks like the mods closed the previous thread.
Just in case it wasn’t clear, we closed that thread because it devolved into a group of folks who couldn’t shut up about Elon Musk. We have no issue with discussing Lucid production numbers. Thanks for sharing.
 
While all the things in there are factual, I think it is missing some key points. Firstly, Lucid is a luxury brand, and while volume is great for investors and the numberbooks, Lucid has sort of implied from the start that volume isn't their primary aim; that's why they're starting with an expensive flagship product. They could have started with a $25k car and gained millions of reservations, but that was not the point of Lucid. It shouldn't need to compete with Polestar and Rivian on deliveries yet, because they are in completely different price brackets. This isn't to say that I wouldn't be absolutely delighted if Lucid could increase their delivery, reservation and production numbers. It also omits that Lucid has the 50-100k orders from the Saudi Government, so they could probably easily move all the cars parked in the factory lot if they did suddenly run out of reservation holders. That's not to mention the fact that the PIF seems to have a vested interest in seeing Lucid succeed, so I have no doubt they would do anything they could to help Lucid. I disagree that $3.25 is a fair valuation for Lucid's stock price. Peter Rawlinson has made a point I find very accurate; Lucid and Tesla are tech companies, not just car companies. Expecting Lucid to deliver 20k very expensive cars to customers is a bit unfair in my eyes. If Lucid continues having problems with finding customers once it moves down market to cheaper cars, then I would have reason for concern, but at this point in time, I'm not that bothered by slower production in this time of economic downturn.
Right? Now lets compare lucid to the s class and 7 series production numbers...
 
The downturn in the economy is a real bummer. If Lucid had been able to start deliveries a year or two sooner, they would be in a much better position. Thems the breaks, as they say.

It’s going to stay ugly for a while. The only question is whether they can hold out long enough for a turnaround. Which right now is not in sight. The stock will likely go nowhere at best for a while.

Personally, I’m optimistic, but I also don’t want to have my head in the sand. It’s going to take a lot of work to get the word out and reach more of those luxury customers. That’s the only play they have in the short term. Any cheaper car is years from production. Keep expanding to more markets and grab as many wealthy buyers in each of those markets as you can. Take the time to keep improving on software and production quality, so you can avoid expensive service and improve customer satisfaction. Ride out the storm.
 
The downturn in the economy is a real bummer. If Lucid had been able to start deliveries a year or two sooner, they would be in a much better position. Thems the breaks, as they say.

It’s going to stay ugly for a while. The only question is whether they can hold out long enough for a turnaround. Which right now is not in sight. The stock will likely go nowhere at best for a while.

Personally, I’m optimistic, but I also don’t want to have my head in the sand. It’s going to take a lot of work to get the word out and reach more of those luxury customers. That’s the only play they have in the short term. Any cheaper car is years from production. Keep expanding to more markets and grab as many wealthy buyers in each of those markets as you can. Take the time to keep improving on software and production quality, so you can avoid expensive service and improve customer satisfaction. Ride out the storm.
Thats no issue
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(they were flat a long time)
 
It also omits that Lucid has the 50-100k orders from the Saudi Government, so they could probably easily move all the cars parked in the factory lot if they did suddenly run out of reservation holders.
I am wondering, what does the Saudi government want with 50k Lucids (i.e. 10k/year for 5 years)?
 
I just saw that PIF is supposedly disappointed in Lucid and will be investing in $MULN as well. I just sent in my payment, jeez this does not bode well
 
Insofar as Lucid is around and servicing cars for the next 5 years, I'm okay but I really worry about whether they'll be around that long. If PIF pulls out, selling your Lucid will be impossible or at a great loss.
 
I just saw that PIF is supposedly disappointed in Lucid and will be investing in $MULN as well. I just sent in my payment, jeez this does not bode well
Do you have a source for that? What are they disappointed by? From my own research, I don't think that is true at all. The Saudi Government has recently announced that it will be paying for the training of staff at the Saudi Lucid AMP 2 factory, and the Prince has announced four economic regions in Saudi, one of which will directly benefit Lucid as they grow their factory in the region. I highly doubt the PIF and the Saudis are getting cold feet just because of a smaller reservation number and perhaps a dip in production/deliveries in Q1 (which was anticipated, as they mentioned an inventory count that would significantly decrease numbers for Q1). I doubt the PIF would have invested in Lucid, and then given it an additional $1.5 billion in funding if it thought it would fail.

Remember, the PIF is more than making a quick buck for the Saudis; it is their investment plan past 2030 and into clean green technologies.

As for investing in Mullen, the PIF does not invest in one company only. They are an investment fund that invests in many many companies, so just because it is taking an interest in whatever Mullen has to offer, I don't think it is necessarily related. Does Mullen offer technology superior to Lucid? Do they have a factory that is currently producing vehicles? (I hope this doesn't throw the thread into another comparison about Mullen Vs Lucid or something)
 
I am wondering, what does the Saudi government want with 50k Lucids (i.e. 10k/year for 5 years)?
Probably government transport cars? Local government workers, ticket enforcers? I don't think all 50k cars will be Airs, I think it will be a mix of Air, Gravity and the cheaper cars past 2025.
 
Do you have a source for that? What are they disappointed by? From my own research, I don't think that is true at all. The Saudi Government has recently announced that it will be paying for the training of staff at the Saudi Lucid AMP 2 factory, and the Prince has announced four economic regions in Saudi, one of which will directly benefit Lucid as they grow their factory in the region. I highly doubt the PIF and the Saudis are getting cold feet just because of a smaller reservation number and perhaps a dip in production/deliveries in Q1 (which was anticipated, as they mentioned an inventory count that would significantly decrease numbers for Q1). I doubt the PIF would have invested in Lucid, and then given it an additional $1.5 billion in funding if it thought it would fail.

Remember, the PIF is more than making a quick buck for the Saudis; it is their investment plan past 2030 and into clean green technologies.

As for investing in Mullen, the PIF does not invest in one company only. They are an investment fund that invests in many many companies, so just because it is taking an interest in whatever Mullen has to offer, I don't think it is necessarily related. Does Mullen offer technology superior to Lucid? Do they have a factory that is currently producing vehicles? (I hope this doesn't throw the thread into another comparison about Mullen Vs Lucid or something)
It was in this live. Now I haven't seen any other source besides this but it does make me concerned, particularly because the poster is a pro-lucid guy as well.
 
Should also add that while PIF has thus far backed Lucid, I don't think that necessarily means they will continue to do so. Lucid needs a huge cash injection (which I hope they announce has been secured during Q1 earnings report). If PIF refuses to put in more money, what happens? PIF can easily absorb a few billion loss.
 
It was in this live. Now I haven't seen any other source besides this but it does make me concerned, particularly because the poster is a pro-lucid guy as well.
I have tried searching up who Lawrence Hardge is, and there is basically no information on who he is and what he does. Is he a person inside the PIF? Does he have special connections? What is his relation to the PIF? The most I can find is a self-written biography that says somethings about being an inventor of a new "revolutionary battery technology", but I can barely find any other source that lists him as an inventor of some magical battery technology. I doubt the PIF would let people openly talk about their internal thoughts and potential investment management strategies.

I personally am taking what he says with a very large grain of salt.
 
Should also add that while PIF has thus far backed Lucid, I don't think that necessarily means they will continue to do so. Lucid needs a huge cash injection (which I hope they announce has been secured during Q1 earnings report). If PIF refuses to put in more money, what happens? PIF can easily absorb a few billion loss.
Oh, of course it doesn't necessarily mean they will continue to do so. But Lucid can offer the Saudis something far more than a few billion dollars. Their technology has the potential for "marine, agricultural and aerospace applications" (Peter Rawlinson said roughly these words in the Lucid Air reveal video in 2020). Ultra power-dense and efficient motors, great battery technology and engineering knowhow can help the Saudis further develop their Vision 2030 plan. So, even though there is a possibility of the Saudis just deciding to take the hit and lose a couple billion, I doubt it.
 
Idk who they are either haha.
Apologies for not properly vetting the source, I saw the "news" right after I sent my payment and *instant regret*. Should have done better DD.
I do believe Lucid will be around for 5 more years at the least but I think they really need to work on spreading a more positive image. I know many people who would buy a lucid but are scared of the company going belly up.
 
Lucid will be around for quite a while due to their technology. However, the stock could be in big pain for a while. I would concur with the Seeking Alpha article that at $7 a share, the stock is more overvalued than it was at the IPO price of $15, if you look at the production projections. But stock pain over the next year will be a huge buying opportunity and the price won’t likely recover until Gravity is in full view and/or the current sales numbers improve.
 
The Gravity will compete with GLS, X7, Range Rover, etc. The total US market for the segment is on the order of 170k units per year. With (still!) practically no brand awareness, how much of that segment can Lucid hope to take, and how much do they need to become profitable? In a normal year even the Range Rover, which everyone knows, sells very roughly 18k units in the US.

Having unfortunately never run a car company, I don't know their path forward. But it seems like they need a good technology licensing deal, to be building powertrains for other manufacturers, or perhaps act as a contract manufacturer a la Magna but for EVs. Until then I am not exactly bullish on their stock either.
 
Gravity isnt really looking too good either. It will have the RR ev to compete with(range rover) and its only better factor will be technology.(efficiency, etc) Im not trying to berate lucid and their wonderful optimization, but MOST ultraluxe SUV buyers dont give a sh!t about range. Just look at the r1s.
 
Lucid will be around for quite a while due to their technology. However, the stock could be in big pain for a while. I would concur with the Seeking Alpha article that at $7 a share, the stock is more overvalued than it was at the IPO price of $15, if you look at the production projections. But stock pain over the next year will be a huge buying opportunity and the price won’t likely recover until Gravity is in full view and/or the current sales numbers improve.
Can you or someone post the article? I cannot read it bc it is asking for subscription.
 
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