Take a Guess on Daily Production End of March 2022

[MPawelek]

This last month I have been reading with interest about videos over the parking lot at the production facility and car count, theories on how many of each level of Air ordered and stoppage due to paint and carpet shortages and slow down checking for improper tightened bolts.
With no parts shortages and a few months of production experience now can anyone venture a guess how many Air’s might be produced per day if everything goes without a hitch? Are we talking dozens to one hundred or less? What is the plant capable of at 100% production?

 

[mnewber1]

This week
+4 VINs assignments reported
Monday: 198 cars
Wednesday: 161 cars
Friday: 98 cars

Tough to tell production with shipments going out.

At 100% production, the AMP-1 should be capable of 34,000 cars per year. Once AMP-2 is done, it will increase to 90,000 cars per year.

 

[Dortreo]

From a purely mathematical point of view, production ramp ups often fit a sigmoid curve as bottlenecks get resolved and production approaches capacity. However, the slope and timing of the steep part of the curve matter a lot. If Lucid hopes to hit 14K cars this year, it’ll require hitting the steepest part of the curve by around July. Roughly, this would mean producing from 150 to 200 cars in March going to 200 to 250 cars in April. By the end of this year, they will need to produce about 2000 to 2500 cars a month, or roughly 80 cars a day.

However, due to parts shortages, it’s clear that what constitutes a completed production car isn’t clear at all! For example, Lucid could not claim a car as completed when they were lacking carpets for footwells. But everything else was done. And labor and parts shortages will be a significant issue through this year at least.

And their production won’t really become efficient until AMP-2 is ready so that the Lucid can have a fully functioning paint shop in AMP-1 where the assembly line currently sits.