Ordering and Delivery: Lucid Air Touring

[Halodde]

There’s no way they are going to have that big of a moss on deliveries, they HAVE to start confirming specs in December at at least deliver in Q1 ‘23 or this company simply won’t make it. You simply cannot have those kinds of misses on your earnings reports.

I was their biggest promoter among my friends, love the design and team they assembled to lead it, but I’m entering my second year without a car waiting for them to deliver and they have been more disappointing than Covid was, while lucid keeps pushing out production rivian is expecting to accelerate production…

Like Joec says below, there are not a lot of Touring reservations compared to GT or Pure. So, I doubt that a "miss" on Touring specifically would even be much of an issue upon earnings. BTW, I've been waiting 2 years for my Touring.

The offer to upgrade to GT at the original price expired back in the summer. They made that pretty clear.

Given they are finally ramping up, I find it an odd time to think they’d be falling further behind on Touring production. From what they’ve said about GT numbers for Q3, they are hitting their revised targets and are well poised to beat the 6-7k produced by end of year. I see no reason to suspect they won’t keep to their planned Pure and Touring production start by year’s end. Unless they say so explicitly at the quarterly meeting. What the reason for that would be is not within my grasp at this point.

They simply don’t have enough GT reservations to keep them busy for all of next year at their current rate, let alone once they add their second line.

And if they start Touring in early 2023, even, they should easily finish all reservations within six months, at most. Probably less. It’s a short list.

Also, they clearly aren’t idiots. They know Touring and Pure customers will walk if they don’t start rolling those trims off the line soon.

I think all Touring customers will have their cars well before the end of 2023.

Pures are another matter. Way more of those need to be built.

@joec What do you know that I don't know about the GT reservations? Do you have a number? It seems to me that part of the reason that Touring production has been pushed back multiple times is d/t additional GT reservations coming in and multiple models (GTR and GTP).

Obviously, I want them to email me asap with my invite to confirm so that I could possibly have my car in 2022. But, seeing as how we are 2/3 of the way through October now, even if they emailed me today, I'm not confident of a delivery this year.

I'm going to post in the thread about the tax credit too. Lucid has told me that it doesn't matter when the car is delivered. My tax guy disagrees with them.

 

[SaaSManKS]

Like Joec says below, there are not a lot of Touring reservations compared to GT or Pure. So, I doubt that a "miss" on Touring specifically would even be much of an issue upon earnings. BTW, I've been waiting 2 years for my Touring.

@joec What do you know that I don't know about the GT reservations? Do you have a number? It seems to me that part of the reason that Touring production has been pushed back multiple times is d/t additional GT reservations coming in and multiple models (GTR and GTP).

Obviously, I want them to email me asap with my invite to confirm so that I could possibly have my car in 2022. But, seeing as how we are 2/3 of the way through October now, even if they emailed me today, I'm not confident of a delivery this year.

I'm going to post in the thread about the tax credit too. Lucid has told me that it doesn't matter when the car is delivered. My tax guy disagrees with them.

I'm not 100% sure what your debate is here, but they committed to Touring and Pure in Q4, so technically if Lucid starts calling customers to confirm their orders before January 1, 2023, they will claim to have met that goal, but in order for them to be able to do that for the Pure they will have had to have gone through all that for Touring, which is another indicator they have so few Touring orders.

If you look in the AGT Delivery forum, they are lighting up that board with ~2 week VIN assignment to delivery period which I would say is an amazing piovt and in an ideal world I'm sure they would like to still improve that.

 

[joec]

Like Joec says below, there are not a lot of Touring reservations compared to GT or Pure. So, I doubt that a "miss" on Touring specifically would even be much of an issue upon earnings. BTW, I've been waiting 2 years for my Touring.

@joec What do you know that I don't know about the GT reservations? Do you have a number? It seems to me that part of the reason that Touring production has been pushed back multiple times is d/t additional GT reservations coming in and multiple models (GTR and GTP).

Obviously, I want them to email me asap with my invite to confirm so that I could possibly have my car in 2022. But, seeing as how we are 2/3 of the way through October now, even if they emailed me today, I'm not confident of a delivery this year.

I'm going to post in the thread about the tax credit too. Lucid has told me that it doesn't matter when the car is delivered. My tax guy disagrees with them.

I don’t know anything official. Let me start with that. No insider info here.

It’s possible they’ve had a flurry of GT orders since the end of last quarter. But how many could there be, realistically? How many people are in the market for a $150k+ EV? And how likely would they be to choose Lucid at a time when all the press has been talking about missed production schedules, fit and finish issues, and poor software?

If reservations are up over the last few months, they would likely be up in the same ratio that they’ve been all along. Vast majority Pure, then GT, then Touring.

So maybe we’re going to be a month or two behind because of a few thousand extra GTs. But a whole year? Not likely.

And what I’ve been thinking all along is that unless they plan to set up three individual production lines (one for each trim) they will at some point have to pause GT production in favor of Touring. Letting someone order a GT today and get it before the first Touring customer who has been waiting over two years is a sure fire way to lose all your Touring customers. The GT customer is very likely to be fine waiting 4 or 5 months for all the Tourings to be made.

In other words, no matter how much more they make on a GT sale, it won’t make up for a lost Touring sale. So they have to set a break point somewhere.

Pure, I’m assuming, will get its own production line that does nothing but Pure. And when they catch up to both Touring and GT, they may end up with two lines just cranking out Pure for a while.

And here’s something else to consider: maybe the start of Pure and Touring is delayed because they want those cars to all be shipped with 2.0? That would make sense to me. Keep cranking out as many GTs as possible for now, so you don’t lose delivery momentum, but once 2.0 is solid and out the door, start Touring and Pure in earnest?

(Ironically, people who pay less tend to be more critical of things like poor software. If we think the GT and Dream customers are nitpicking a lot, just wait until the Pure customers start getting their cars.)

As far as your Touring goes, Lucid stated production would start this year, not that deliveries would happen this year. I thought they may want to deliver a few by December just for the press benefit, but that’s looking unlikely at this point. I think the first deliveries won’t be until February or March.

 

[joec]

I'm not 100% sure what your debate is here, but they committed to Touring and Pure in Q4, so technically if Lucid starts calling customers to confirm their orders before January 1, 2023, they will claim to have met that goal, but in order for them to be able to do that for the Pure they will have had to have gone through all that for Touring, which is another indicator they have so few Touring orders.

If you look in the AGT Delivery forum, they are lighting up that board with ~2 week VIN assignment to delivery period which I would say is an amazing piovt and in an ideal world I'm sure they would like to still improve that.

I would not assume that Lucid plans to finish all Touring before starting Pure. I think there’s every possibility they will do those two trims simultaneously. Too many Pure customers have been waiting too long already.

 

[SaaSManKS]

I don’t know anything official. Let me start with that. No insider info here.

It’s possible they’ve had a flurry of GT orders since the end of last quarter. But how many could there be, realistically? How many people are in the market for a $150k+ EV? And how likely would they be to choose Lucid at a time when all the press has been talking about missed production schedules, fit and finish issues, and poor software?

If reservations are up over the last few months, they would likely be up in the same ratio that they’ve been all along. Vast majority Pure, then GT, then Touring.

So maybe we’re going to be a month or two behind because of a few thousand extra GTs. But a whole year? Not likely.

And what I’ve been thinking all along is that unless they plan to set up three individual production lines (one for each trim) they will at some point have to pause GT production in favor of Touring. Letting someone order a GT today and get it before the first Touring customer who has been waiting over two years is a sure fire way to lose all your Touring customers. The GT customer is very likely to be fine waiting 4 or 5 months for all the Tourings to be made.

In other words, no matter how much more they make on a GT sale, it won’t make up for a lost Touring sale. So they have to set a break point somewhere.

Pure, I’m assuming, will get its own production line that does nothing but Pure. And when they catch up to both Touring and GT, they may end up with two lines just cranking out Pure for a while.

And here’s something else to consider: maybe the start of Pure and Touring is delayed because they want those cars to all be shipped with 2.0? That would make sense to me. Keep cranking out as many GTs as possible for now, so you don’t lose delivery momentum, but once 2.0 is solid and out the door, start Touring and Pure in earnest?

(Ironically, people who pay less tend to be more critical of things like poor software. If we think the GT and Dream customers are nitpicking a lot, just wait until the Pure customers start getting their cars.)

As far as your Touring goes, Lucid stated production would start this year, not that deliveries would happen this year. I thought they may want to deliver a few by December just for the press benefit, but that’s looking unlikely at this point. I think the first deliveries won’t be until February or March.

To your point about AGT RSVP's vs Touring RSVP's they are 100% catering to the AGT. If you call and put in an order for a AGT you will get pushed in front of Touring production. I called and asked a rep to verify and a friend of mine who has a rsvp for the AGT about a year after me got his call on Monday...that is infuriating....Funny point about nitpicky customers at lower price points, I would agree, my OCD can be a blessing and a curse. But I don't think they would hold back deliveries for 2.0. that's too simple of a deployment and "experience" for customers it's like iOS, Apple ships them and as soon as you get it, they start you in on updates, as a software engineer that's my take at least.

 

[Halodde]

I'm not 100% sure what your debate is here, but they committed to Touring and Pure in Q4, so technically if Lucid starts calling customers to confirm their orders before January 1, 2023, they will claim to have met that goal, but in order for them to be able to do that for the Pure they will have had to have gone through all that for Touring, which is another indicator they have so few Touring orders.

If you look in the AGT Delivery forum, they are lighting up that board with ~2 week VIN assignment to delivery period which I would say is an amazing piovt and in an ideal world I'm sure they would like to still improve that.

I didn't mean to sound like I was debating anything. Sorry if it came across that way. I was only pointing out that, as has been said multiple times by Lucid and here, there are not a lot of us waiting for Touring. So, if Lucid decided to completely skip Touring production and go right to Pure, the market might not even consider that a miss. They might actually even like it since the company would be producing the category that will likely (eventually) be their biggest money maker.

I don't think they would do that to us. But, basically, I'm saying that I don't know how much weight we, the Touring reservation holders, actually have here as such a small group.

 

[Tesla2.0]

To your point about AGT RSVP's vs Touring RSVP's they are 100% catering to the AGT. If you call and put in an order for a AGT you will get pushed in front of Touring production. I called and asked a rep to verify and a friend of mine who has a rsvp for the AGT about a year after me got his call on Monday...that is infuriating....Funny point about nitpicky customers at lower price points, I would agree, my OCD can be a blessing and a curse. But I don't think they would hold back deliveries for 2.0. that's too simple of a deployment and "experience" for customers it's like iOS, Apple ships them and as soon as you get it, they start you in on updates, as a software engineer that's my take at least.

It not all financially driven, the assembly line has pre-assigned task stations. Not having to reconfigure assembly line won’t slow down the production. They determine to knock out AGT trim right away then add additional shifts for newer trims. Their AMP-1 factory is growing for needed space. They are just doing problem solving to. Having super set of task stations rolled out proven quality, they will only make cars faster with subsets of stations. Building AGT first was their quality stress test.

 

[Halodde]

As far as your Touring goes, Lucid stated production would start this year, not that deliveries would happen this year. I thought they may want to deliver a few by December just for the press benefit, but that’s looking unlikely at this point. I think the first deliveries won’t be until February or March.

Oh, I know what they said. Doesn't mean I have to like it lol

 

[joec]

To your point about AGT RSVP's vs Touring RSVP's they are 100% catering to the AGT. If you call and put in an order for a AGT you will get pushed in front of Touring production. I called and asked a rep to verify and a friend of mine who has a rsvp for the AGT about a year after me got his call on Monday...that is infuriating....Funny point about nitpicky customers at lower price points, I would agree, my OCD can be a blessing and a curse. But I don't think they would hold back deliveries for 2.0. that's too simple of a deployment and "experience" for customers it's like iOS, Apple ships them and as soon as you get it, they start you in on updates, as a software engineer that's my take at least.

Apple always ships new hardware with the updated software in the box. They do a point release or so afterwards. iOS 16.1, for instance, will ship on Monday, and the new iPads they just announced already have it installed. They would not have shipped this year's iPhones with 15.4.

And yes, thus far, they are catering to GT. What I'm saying is they can't do that forever.

The fact remains that the bulk of the money represented in Lucid's current reservation pool is going to come from Pure sales. And as few Touring sales as there may be, they can't make up for losing all of those sales by just selling a few additional GTs. Anyone who was willing to "upgrade" to a GT from Touring has done so at this point. Everyone else is a potential lost sale.

We'll find out more at the earnings call. But thus far, there's no evidence to suggest they are off target from what they predicted at the end of Q2. If they thought then that both Touring and Pure production would start by the end of the year, my guess is they still think that's possible? Which means they have a plan to start them both simultaneously.

If someone places an order for a GT on December 31st, they aren't going to throw their whole plan out the window to make an extra $40k.

 

[Babyrocko1908]

If they start production of touring and pure in Dec as they said in the last quarter report, hopefully the first deliveries will be in Feb or Mar 23

We might be buried in snow in Feb here in PA. I actually don't mind waiting until March or early April for my car especially since I'm getting the 21" Aero Blades with the summer tires. If I take delivery in the dead of winter, the car will basically be sitting in my garage for a few months before I'll be able to really drive it.

 

[Babyrocko1908]

I've had a Touring reservation since Oct 2021. I spoke with my sales rep and offered to upgrade my reservation to a Grand Touring if they Grandfathered original GT price, but they refused. My personal belief is that Touring deliveries will not happen until the second half of 2023. The company has lacked transparency, which is incredibly frustrating.

Yup. They are holding firm very firm in not offering the grandfathered price for the GT's. Not sure what the reason is other than lower margins.

 

[Babyrocko1908]

There’s no way they are going to have that big of a moss on deliveries, they HAVE to start confirming specs in December at at least deliver in Q1 ‘23 or this company simply won’t make it. You simply cannot have those kinds of misses on your earnings reports.

I was their biggest promoter among my friends, love the design and team they assembled to lead it, but I’m entering my second year without a car waiting for them to deliver and they have been more disappointing than Covid was, while lucid keeps pushing out production rivian is expecting to accelerate production…

And Rivian just recalled literally ALL of their R1T's and R1S's because of a faulty, and potentially deadly, steering wheel manufacturing defect. I can continue to wait for my Touring. Speedy production alone isn't always the best strategy. There needs to be a balance of speed, quality, and SAFETY in manufacturing.

 

[Babyrocko1908]

Please add me to the Touring Tracker. Original reservation date for Pure March 7, 2022. Upgrade to Touring Oct 17, 2022.

Cosmos Silver
Glass Canopy
Mojave interior
20" Aero Lite Wheels
Dream Drive Pro
Surreal Sound Pro

You did it! Welcome!! Did they honor the grandfathered Touring price for you?

 

[joec]

Yup. They are holding firm very firm in not offering the grandfathered price for the GT's. Not sure what the reason is other than lower margins.

They gave everyone with a Touring order the opportunity to upgrade to GT at the old price. But they set a deadline on it. I can't fault them for sticking to their deadline.

Presumably they raised the price of the GT for a reason. The math wasn't working out for them selling a GT at the old price.

Thus far, they've been increasing their margins every quarter, but they are still negative. If they can't continue towards an eventual positive margin, the stock will tumble even further.
I think at this point they may want to knock out the Touring run as fast as possible, and then maybe even drop the trim altogether. Just offer more options on the Pure line, and be done with it.

 

[Babyrocko1908]

They gave everyone with a Touring order the opportunity to upgrade to GT at the old price. But they set a deadline on it. I can't fault them for sticking to their deadline.

Presumably they raised the price of the GT for a reason. The math wasn't working out for them selling a GT at the old price.

Thus far, they've been increasing their margins every quarter, but they are still negative. If they can't continue towards an eventual positive margin, the stock will tumble even further.
I think at this point they may want to knock out the Touring run as fast as possible, and then maybe even drop the trim altogether. Just offer more options on the Pure line, and be done with it.

To even consider dropping the Touring trim makes no sense to me. When I test drove the GT back in June, the Studio Manager told me that the vast majority of the orders he's seen were for the Touring model and that Lucid is banking on this being their most profitable model in a few years. He suggested while Pure was a good value, it was too limiting in options for the masses in Air's target price range.

 

[joec]

To even consider dropping the Touring trim makes no sense to me. When I test drove the GT back in June, the Studio Manager told me that the vast majority of the orders he's seen were for the Touring model and that Lucid is banking on this being their most profitable model in a few years. He suggested while Pure was a good value, it was too limiting in options for the masses in Air's target price range.

That directly contradicts what the CEO stated during the last earnings call in August. Touring is the least popular trim of the Air. Pure is by far the most popular.

They could drop Touring and offer the same Touring options on the Pure. You get to keep the base price low but satisfy far more people. And you simplify the lineup.

 

[Babyrocko1908]

That directly contradicts what the CEO stated during the last earnings call in August. Touring is the least popular trim of the Air. Pure is by far the most popular.

They could drop Touring and offer the same Touring options on the Pure. You get to keep the base price low but satisfy far more people. And you simplify the lineup.

Just repeating what I was told in June. We'll find out soon enough.

 

[segfault]

We have decided that if we don't have a VIN for our Touring by Dec 31, 2022, we're dropping our order and losing the $1000 deposit. We originally ordered in August of 2020 and had no idea it would take this long. My wife and I have been sharing a car for the last year as we are in this kind of car purgatory. We need a car bad.

 

[Babyrocko1908]

Similar boat. I've been driving my "winter car" "my hooptie" which is a 2005 Scion XB that is fabulous in the snow. I sold my Jaguar XF to my in-laws in April after they made me an offer I couldn't refuse in this used car market. Wifey drives a Jeep Wrangler and she's not trying to share.

We continue to wait, and wait, and wait........

 

[joec]

We have decided that if we don't have a VIN for our Touring by Dec 31, 2022, we're dropping our order and losing the $1000 deposit. We originally ordered in August of 2020 and had no idea it would take this long. My wife and I have been sharing a car for the last year as we are in this kind of car purgatory. We need a car bad.

Totally understandable. August 2020 should put you pretty darn close to the front of the line. Especially with the options you chose. I have to believe you'll be asked to confirm by December.

Not sure how long we're going to see confirmation -> Vin -> Delivery. That seems to be getting shorter by the minute with the GT.