LCID stock

[xponents]

I hope you're right, and you may well be. I guess I'm just too haunted by the history of some brands that attempted to go downmarket while trying to maintain a premium brand luster.

I think of Packard, once a rival to Cadillac for both luxury and engineering, and the attempts to go down-market that spelled its doom. Some business historians think that had Packard contented itself with staying a low-volume luxury manufacturer, it would have been an 80,000-unit-per-year manufacturer from the 1950's onward.

I think of Cadillac, once truly the engineering standard of the automotive world, that by the 1980's was pumping out the vile Cimarron in an attempt to get Chevrolet Cavalier buyers to pony up some extra cash for more vinyl and chromed plastic trim. Even today one of its best-known offerings is the gargantuan truck-based Escalade -- which occupies a place in the public imagination as a platform to bling out for drug dealers and pimps. (And it'll stay on this path with a 9,000-pound electric version that requires a 200-kWh battery pack to get minimally-acceptable range.)

I think of Mercedes and the GLA 250 I once had the misfortune to pick up at a rental counter. Anyone who drove that car as their first Mercedes experience would never understand what the S and E Class Mercedes once stood for. (And seeing the bloated rolling video arcade that is the EQS would not take them any further down the road to understanding.)

I think Porsche might offer Lucid the best example of how to maintain a premium caché while broadening offerings downward. With well-engineered products such as the Cayenne and the 718 sport series, they figured out that you could broaden beyond an iconic product such as the 911, sell them at somewhat lower but still substantial prices, and keep the company's growth and success perpetually on the boil.

People get too focused on EV versus ICE when it comes to brand identify and marketing dynamics. I believe these things ultimately will remain relatively constant regardless of powertrain type.

As @stealth says, Tesla has walked away from the high-end caché in pursuit of becoming an electric Toyota. Let Tesla be Tesla. Lucid needs to find a different path. The Air proves it has the engineering chops to be whatever it wants. Let it want to be the maker of the best-engineered and designed premium electric vehicles on the planet.

Porsche seems to me to be exactly what Lucid aspires to be, seeing the focus on driving dynamics over headline grabbing figures(although they both have some of those) as well as the premium pricing over Tesla. They also have similarly huge price spreads between trims, which are usually over 100k alone. I would love it if Lucid retained that same luxury across all their models like porsche, the only differing factor mainly being driving dynamics and size. I would also hate it if they went the CLA/A class way, with those creaky, terribly engineered, FWD pieces of crap.


If Lucid becomes like Porsche(which they are very similar to, even the gravity is similar to the cayenne in all aspect including pricing), I will be a very happy person.

 

[joec]

Porsche seems to me to be exactly what Lucid aspires to be, seeing the focus on driving dynamics over headline grabbing figures(although they both have some of those) as well as the premium pricing over Tesla. They also have similarly huge price spreads between trims, which are usually over 100k alone. I would love it if Lucid retained that same luxury across all their models like porsche, the only differing factor mainly being driving dynamics and size. I would also hate it if they went the CLA/A class way, with those creaky, terribly engineered, FWD pieces of crap.


If Lucid becomes like Porsche(which they are very similar to, even the gravity is similar to the cayenne in all aspect including pricing), I will be a very happy person.

Porsche is indeed a brand worth aspiring to be. I would be very happy to see Lucid model themselves more in that direction.

 

[no gas]

I think it's more just a matter of pride saying it was built in the Kingdom. Just a guess

Unfortunately it’s widely documented and accepted that Auto Unlock and lock does not work very well especially with a phone key. The key fob is much better but it seems like the range in which cars unlock is widely different as well. Not to mention the dead spot in the trunk which is also widely documented. Most of us can’t unlock our trunks unless we approach the car from the side and touch the handles. These aren’t user issues, lucid knows of this issue but they do not have a solid solution. Service centers will tell you it’s a common complaint and they will also tell you that there’s not much they can do to fix it at this current time.

So yes I would agree that people need to read the manual but also would say that things suggested in that manual do not work very well especially when it comes to the door issue.

Mine works quite well.

 

[HariK]

Porsche is indeed a brand worth aspiring to be. I would be very happy to see Lucid model themselves more in that direction.

Yes. I remember that Porsche was the last to enter the SUV segment. https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/porsche-us-sales-figures/ Porsche had a record year in the United States in 2022, with sales of 70,065 cars, up 13.6% from 2021. The company’s best-selling model was the Macan SUV, with 23,688 units sold, followed by the Cayenne SUV with 21,194 units sold. The Panamera sedan and 911 sports car also saw strong sales, with 4,224 and 3,913 units sold, respectively.
I think we will see sales move to Gravity from Air and that is not a bad thing financially for Lucid as long as we do not become step children with sedans.

 

[no gas]

Yikes! Is there something in the air today? Spanning several threads, so much of the commentary seems to be distressingly negative, and this is where I come for a little encouragement from the faithful. Especially after watching the stock being manipulated down 5% or so every day. Think I'll sign off and go for a ride!

Bought more today, will keep on buying!

 

[hmp10]

Porsche seems to me to be exactly what Lucid aspires to be . . . .

Except that Rawlinson still talks about moving more into the mass market where EVs can do the most good for the environment, and Lucid is already said to be starting work on a Model Y rival as the follow-on to the Gravity.

Tesla is already showing what it can and will do with price cuts to drive less-established competitors to the wall.

Musk can't seem to get Rawlinson out of his head. But it's high time Rawlinson gets Musk out of his.

 

[joec]

Except that Rawlinson still talks about moving more into the mass market where EVs can do the most good for the environment, and Lucid is already said to be starting work on a Model Y rival as the follow-on to the Gravity.

Tesla is already showing what it can and will do with price cuts to drive less-established competitors to the wall.

Musk can't seem to get Rawlinson out of his head. But it's high time Rawlinson gets Musk out of his.

I completely agree. Competing with Tesla would be suicidal. But I’m not convinced that’s the long-term play. Rawlinson cares too much about the driving dynamics to ever take Lucid in that direction entirely.

 

[hydbob]

Except that Rawlinson still talks about moving more into the mass market where EVs can do the most good for the environment, and Lucid is already said to be starting work on a Model Y rival as the follow-on to the Gravity.

Tesla is already showing what it can and will do with price cuts to drive less-established competitors to the wall.

Musk can't seem to get Rawlinson out of his head. But it's high time Rawlinson gets Musk out of his.

I see it more like, Porsche 911...downmarket is the Cayman/Boxster or the Cayenne then downmarket is the Macan

 

[xponents]

I see it more like, Porsche 911...downmarket is the Cayman/Boxster or the Cayenne then downmarket is the Macan

My exact thoughts. The Gravity to me seemed like the Cayenne as noted above, while the Macan(which still has the great engineering, driving dynamics, and largely luxury as higher porsches) would be the midsize SUV.

 

[no gas]

After looking at this, I’m loading tomorrow. Shows you how committed the PIF is to Lucid.

A look at PIF’s ownership of US equities in Q3 2023

The Public Investment Fund (PIF) cut its ownership in US equities from $38.93 billion in Q2 2023 to $36.48 billion in Q3 2023, according to a US Secur

www.argaam.com

 

[hmp10]

I see it more like, Porsche 911...downmarket is the Cayman/Boxster or the Cayenne then downmarket is the Macan

My exact thoughts. The Gravity to me seemed like the Cayenne as noted above, while the Macan(which still has the great engineering, driving dynamics, and largely luxury as higher porsches) would be the midsize SUV.

The problem is that Rawlinson has been all over the map about where Lucid wants to land the brand. In a December 2021 interview with" Axios" he said, "I don't want to be doing wealthy people's cars." This comment was the segue into a discussion about going downmarket all the way to a $25,000 car within four years.

But there's been confusion as to what that means. In a February 2022 interview with "Business Insider" Rawlinson talked about how Lucid's efficiency could get the cost of battery packs down in aiming at a $25,000 car: "I could buy cells at, say, under $100 a kilowatt-hour, maybe $90. I could buy the cells for that pack for $2,300. I could build a pack for under $3,000. And then I could have a $25,000 car. That's the future."

But in talking to "Axios", Rawlinson said the $25,000 car would come not from Lucid, but by licensing Lucid's technology to mass producers of lower-end cars. But we all know how those licensing aspirations are shaping up. The only significant agreement so far has been to put Lucid technology into Aston Martins, while the late-to-the-EV-party mass producers remain intent on in-house powertrain development and are willing to put less efficient cars on the market rather than turning to Lucid to license its leading-edge efficiency.

None of this sounds much like Lucid is planning to pitch its tent on Porsche turf . . . unless they stumble onto it by default as they run into dead ends with other strategies.

But getting there by a stumble is okay with me. Accidental success is still success.

 

[borski]

while the late-to-the-EV-party mass producers remain intent on in-house powertrain development and are willing to put less efficient cars on the market rather than turning to Lucid to license its leading-edge efficiency.

For now. Lucid's leading-edge efficiency is not cheap enough yet for it to be licensed by the likes of Toyota, etc. That was Peter's point re: getting the efficiency down, as I understand it.

But getting there by a stumble is okay with me. Accidental success is still success.

If there's anything I learned in running a few businesses, every success is an accidental success, and no success is overnight. Even when it happens overnight (the comedian Matt Rife, for example), there was like 12 years of work beforehand honing his craft and working nonstop before the sudden 'overnight' success, which he wouldn't have had without all that prep. Thing is, the hard work doesn't guarantee success either, but you can't have the latter without the former, ever.

And, also importantly, everything is a stumble. Lucid is still looking for true PMF (product market fit). Tesla didn't find it until the Model 3. Lucid didn't find it with the Air; they have a spectacular product, but sold to the wrong market. The market is too small to sustain the company. That's OK. Now they have to continue to stumble their way into the right market with the right product. They'll get there.

Hell, it's worth remembering that just a few short years ago this was Atieva and they made batteries and any car, much less the most awarded of 2022/2023, was a pipedream.

 

[hmp10]

For now. Lucid's leading-edge efficiency is not cheap enough yet for it to be licensed by the likes of Toyota, etc. That was Peter's point re: getting the efficiency down, as I understand it.

There is also the question of whether automotive giants such as Toyota would be willing to become dependent on licensing for something as core to their product as powertrains.

What I don't understand is why a company like Jaguar wouldn't turn to Lucid technology. They abandoned their attempt to bring an electric XJ to market when the development costs overwhelmed them, but the XJ would have been at a market point similar to the Air and presumably could have absorbed the licensing cost of a Lucid powertrain. Unless there's something I don't know about Rawlinson's tenure at Jaguar, where he was Principal Engineer, I would have thought Jaguar would understand what Rawlinson could bring to the table.

After spending about a year expecting to see a Lucid-Jaguar licensing agreement, when it didn't materialize I began to suspect that the licensing leg of Lucid's business plan was shaky.

Rolls-Royce, which sources its gas engines from BMW, did not turn to Lucid for its electric powertrain.

Rivian, which initially sourced its motors from Bosch before turning in-house with its Enduro motor, never partnered with Lucid.

Honda and Sony, both of which wanted a partner to enter the EV market, turned to each other for the Afeela instead of to Lucid's cutting-edge technology, although neither had any significant footprint in BEV technology.

The cost of batteries for all these companies is little different from the cost of batteries to Lucid, and the rest of the Lucid powertrain reduces the number of batteries needed for a given propulsion goal. So I don't think it has to do with the current cost of Lucid technology.

It's left me wondering whether majority ownership by the Saudis isn't playing a role here. It may not be a coincidence that the only auto builder to license Lucid technology so far -- Aston Martin -- has the Saudi PIF as its second-largest shareholder.

One thing now seems clear. In the near term, Lucid cannot turn to the stock market to raise capital. It is completely reliant on the PIF until the Gravity demonstrates whether it can put a heavy footprint in the sales numbers.

 

[xponents]

There is also the question of whether automotive giants such as Toyota would be willing to become dependent on licensing for something as core to their product as powertrains.

What I don't understand is why a company like Jaguar wouldn't turn to Lucid technology. They abandoned their attempt to bring an electric XJ to market when the development costs overwhelmed them, but the XJ would have been at a market point similar to the Air and presumably could have absorbed the licensing cost of a Lucid powertrain. Unless there's something I don't know about Rawlinson's tenure at Jaguar, where he was Principal Engineer, I would have thought Jaguar would understand what Rawlinson could bring to the table.

After spending about a year expecting to see a Lucid-Jaguar licensing agreement, when it didn't materialize I began to suspect that the licensing leg of Lucid's business plan was shaky.

Rolls-Royce, which sources its gas engines from BMW, did not turn to Lucid for its electric powertrain.

Rivian, which initially sourced its motors from Bosch before turning in-house with its Enduro motor, never partnered with Lucid.

Honda and Sony, both of which wanted a partner to enter the EV market, turned to each other for the Afeela instead of to Lucid's cutting-edge technology, although neither had any significant footprint in BEV technology.

The cost of batteries for all these companies is little different from the cost of batteries to Lucid, and the rest of the Lucid powertrain reduces the number of batteries needed for a given propulsion goal. So I don't think it has to do with the current cost of Lucid technology.

It's left me wondering whether majority ownership by the Saudis isn't playing a role here. It may not be a coincidence that the only auto builder to license Lucid technology so far -- Aston Martin -- has the Saudi PIF as its second-largest shareholder.

One thing now seems clear. In the near term, Lucid cannot turn to the stock market to raise capital. It is completely reliant on the PIF until the Gravity demonstrates whether it can put a heavy footprint in the sales numbers.

I can think of numerous reasons that Jaguar would not partner with Lucid, as partnering with two competing british automakers would not go well. In addition, JLR is working on their own technology already and have a dedicated platform. The electric XJ was rebooted, by the way.

Rolls royce would continue to use BMW motors, as they are owned by them.

Rivian might, but I suspect they would not want to be known as a partner with Lucid. After all, with Gravity, they will be one of Lucid's fiercest rivals...

As for Honda, again I would say that they want to be known for their OWN thing, not a "saudi funded thing" in the eyes of them. Also, Lucids motors are probably prohibitively expensive for them(believe me, I have inquired about this. if they made it available, i was told it would be around 6-8k for buying a crate motor...)

 

[hmp10]

I can think of numerous reasons that Jaguar would not partner with Lucid, as partnering with two competing british automakers would not go well. In addition, JLR is working on their own technology already and have a dedicated platform. The electric XJ was rebooted, by the way.

Rolls royce would continue to use BMW motors, as they are owned by them.

Rivian might, but I suspect they would not want to be known as a partner with Lucid. After all, with Gravity, they will be one of Lucid's fiercest rivals...

As for Honda, again I would say that they want to be known for their OWN thing, not a "saudi funded thing" in the eyes of them. Also, Lucids motors are probably prohibitively expensive for them(believe me, I have inquired about this. if they made it available, i was told it would be around 6-8k for buying a crate motor...)

. . . all of which supports the view that the licensing leg of Lucid's business plan is not going to pan out.

I suspect that the price for a one-off purchase of a motor would be different from a volume purchase to a licensing partner. One of the points Rawlinson has made is that the Lucid motor was engineered for manufacturability, particularly its windings, and that it was one of the most cost-efficient EV motors to build.

But what would a 14-year-old be wanting with an expensive crate motor?

 

[xponents]

. . . all of which supports the view that the licensing leg of Lucid's business plan is not going to pan out.

I suspect that the price for a one-off purchase of a motor would be different from a volume purchase to a licensing partner. One of the points Rawlinson has made is that the Lucid motor was engineered for manufacturability, particularly its windings, and that it was one of the most cost-efficient EV motors to build.

True. Crate motors like the one I inquired about for a conversion usually have massive profit margins on them. I do hope those motors are cheap to build, or at least are getting cheaper as time goes on.

 

[no gas]

There is also the question of whether automotive giants such as Toyota would be willing to become dependent on licensing for something as core to their product as powertrains.

What I don't understand is why a company like Jaguar wouldn't turn to Lucid technology. They abandoned their attempt to bring an electric XJ to market when the development costs overwhelmed them, but the XJ would have been at a market point similar to the Air and presumably could have absorbed the licensing cost of a Lucid powertrain. Unless there's something I don't know about Rawlinson's tenure at Jaguar, where he was Principal Engineer, I would have thought Jaguar would understand what Rawlinson could bring to the table.

After spending about a year expecting to see a Lucid-Jaguar licensing agreement, when it didn't materialize I began to suspect that the licensing leg of Lucid's business plan was shaky.

Rolls-Royce, which sources its gas engines from BMW, did not turn to Lucid for its electric powertrain.

Rivian, which initially sourced its motors from Bosch before turning in-house with its Enduro motor, never partnered with Lucid.

Honda and Sony, both of which wanted a partner to enter the EV market, turned to each other for the Afeela instead of to Lucid's cutting-edge technology, although neither had any significant footprint in BEV technology.

The cost of batteries for all these companies is little different from the cost of batteries to Lucid, and the rest of the Lucid powertrain reduces the number of batteries needed for a given propulsion goal. So I don't think it has to do with the current cost of Lucid technology.

It's left me wondering whether majority ownership by the Saudis isn't playing a role here. It may not be a coincidence that the only auto builder to license Lucid technology so far -- Aston Martin -- has the Saudi PIF as its second-largest shareholder.

One thing now seems clear. In the near term, Lucid cannot turn to the stock market to raise capital. It is completely reliant on the PIF until the Gravity demonstrates whether it can put a heavy footprint in the sales numbers.

Aston Martin deal excludes certain manufacturers till 2026, also Jaguar will compete with Lucid. Maybe that’s why.

 

[hmp10]

Aston Martin deal excludes certain manufacturers till 2026, also Jaguar will compete with Lucid. Maybe that’s why.

Since Lucid from the get-go announced plans to expand its lineup to more affordable cars and to different vehicle categories, it suggested that they would eventually be in competition with almost all brands. Yet their licensing strategy assumed this would not be an impediment.

You may be right about the competition angle . . . but, if so, it's just another indication that Lucid's licensing strategy will remain a footnote in their business results.

 

[HariK]

I don't think Rawlins plans to license tech to Toyota for instance for a low priced car and enter the same market with a smaller version of Air unless he plans to limit Toyota to not sell a Lexus version of it and he sells something even above a Lexus version with more range etc. For now the 80k entry point of Gravity surely means much higher volumes than Air but execution and time to market is the key.

 

[borski]

Since Lucid from the get-go announced plans to expand its lineup to more affordable cars and to different vehicle categories, it suggested that they would eventually be in competition with almost all brands. Yet their licensing strategy assumed this would not be an impediment.

You may be right about the competition angle . . . but, if so, it's just another indication that Lucid's licensing strategy will remain a footnote in their business results.

And they may yet be - but it is entirely possible that for Lucid, a new brand, to get Aston, a very incumbent luxury brand, to commit to a licensing deal they had to provide some number of years of exclusivity.

Remember, the iPhone was exclusive to AT&T for years, because no other carrier wanted to work with Apple on their crazy new idea; every other carrier turned them down. Accidentally a massive massive win for AT&T for a bunch of a years, but all of that was because nobody wanted to partner with Apple on cell phones for their crazy new carrier ideas.

AM is a fantastic partner, and I hope they get more of them eventually.