LCID 2021 Q4 Earnings

[Sandvinsd]

Well we are under two weeks for the Q4 earnings, scheduled for February 21st. Yes, they will have a horrific loss in the earnings report, but of more interest will be deliveries and reservation numbers for Q4. Any guesses out there for both deliveries and reservations? Thoughts on what else they might say?

 

[RichMalden]

Obviously they missed the 520. I think they've been extra silent and are basically doing whatever they can to dampen the disappointment and effects of that reality with a forward looking statement saying that the 520 have since been delivered by the earnings call date and I think they will do almost anything to get at least 1 GT into a buyer's hands so they can say those deliveries have started. This has probably been their hope over the last couple of weeks now we'll see if they succeed.

I am also hoping for a good jump in orders. When they announced their previous orders the full impact of receiving the Car of the Year award was just beginning to settle in.

 

[Sandvinsd]

I think they will do almost anything to get at least 1 GT into a buyer's hands so they can say those deliveries have started. This has probably been their hope over the last couple of weeks now we'll see if they succeed.

Perhaps it’s why the first people with VINs live in AZ? Much easier to make that delivery when the customer is 10 miles from the plant.

 

[SaratogaLefty]

Obviously they missed the 520. I think they've been extra silent and are basically doing whatever they can to dampen the disappointment and effects of that reality with a forward looking statement saying that the 520 have since been delivered by the earnings call date and I think they will do almost anything to get at least 1 GT into a buyer's hands so they can say those deliveries have started. This has probably been their hope over the last couple of weeks now we'll see if they succeed.

I am also hoping for a good jump in orders. When they announced their previous orders the full impact of receiving the Car of the Year award was just beginning to settle in.

First of all the number for 2021 Deliveries was 577, not 520. The original number of Dream Edition models was 500 and Rawlinson promised 577 deliveries back then. Then the EPA rating came out and they decided to increase the Dream from 500 to 520 to honor the EPA rating. Many people starting thinking the delivery promise was changed to 520 but the reality is the number never changed from the promised 577. As to the 2021 miss, my guess is they didn't deliver even 250 Dream Edition cars in 2021. Pick you own number and we'll see who is correct.

 

[Adnillien]

Perhaps it’s why the first people with VINs live in AZ? Much easier to make that delivery when the customer is 10 miles from the plant.

I volunteer to get my GT before earnings call but realistically my DA has not led me to believe that my car will be ready that fast.

 

[Sandvinsd]

I volunteer to get my GT before earnings call but realistically my DA has not led me to believe that my car will be ready that fast.

I hope you do!

 

[MidwestLucidDude]

Orders will rise from 17,000 to 30,000.
Delivered Dreams will be 750. Dream Editions are still coming out the factory door because Lucid is overwhelmed by Dream orders and decided to deliver more of this high margin item.
Grand Touring deliveries are delayed so they can pump out more of the Dream Editions because demand is so high.
Stock is back up to $55 as everyone is surprised by the news.
You heard it here first.

 

[HC_79]

Delivered Dreams will be 750. Dream Editions are still coming out the factory door because Lucid is overwhelmed by Dream orders and decided to deliver more of this high margin item.

There is no more than 520 Dreams. This has been well stated that it was a limited edition and reservations have been closed for a long time now.

 

[hydbob]

Orders will rise from 17,000 to 30,000.
Delivered Dreams will be 750. Dream Editions are still coming out the factory door because Lucid is overwhelmed by Dream orders and decided to deliver more of this high margin item.
Grand Touring deliveries are delayed so they can pump out more of the Dream Editions because demand is so high.
Stock is back up to $55 as everyone is surprised by the news.
You heard it here first.

lol no way, if they produce more than 520 that is a REALLY bad look for them

 

[MidwestLucidDude]

lol no way, if they produce more than 520 that is a REALLY bad look for them

How would it be bad to find out that demand was off the chart for a $169,000 car?

 

[manitou202]

Orders will rise from 17,000 to 30,000.
Delivered Dreams will be 750. Dream Editions are still coming out the factory door because Lucid is overwhelmed by Dream orders and decided to deliver more of this high margin item.
Grand Touring deliveries are delayed so they can pump out more of the Dream Editions because demand is so high.
Stock is back up to $55 as everyone is surprised by the news.
You heard it here first.

I have a feeling you are going to be pretty disappointed on February 21st.

They are limiting Dream's to 520. I'm on the wait list for a Dream Edition and was specifically told they are all sold out and no more than the 520 will be produced.

 

[MidwestLucidDude]

There is no more than 520 Dreams. This has been well stated that it was a limited edition and reservations have been closed for a long time now.

You are probably right...but lets ponder this for a moment. Lucid still allows Grand Touring Edition reservation holders to get on a wait list for the Dream (see image attached). Yes it is a limited edition but I've never read that Lucid promised no more than 520 will ever be produced. People are turning around and selling them for $200,000! For a cash intensive business, Lucid would be crazy not to deliver more of their highest profit margin car.

 

[hydbob]

How would it be bad to find out that demand was off the chart for a $179,000 car?

It's not bad to know the demand was great, but saying you will only produce 520 and then producing more is the bad look.

 

[dawktah LucidGT]

It's not bad to know the demand was great, but saying you will only produce 520 and then producing more is the bad look.

Yes, but I have the feeling they will when they came out with the Dream R version.

 

[Paladin732]

You are probably right...but lets ponder this for a moment. Lucid still allows Grand Touring Edition reservation holders to get on a wait list for the Dream (see image attached). Yes it is a limited edition but I've never read that Lucid promised no more than 520 will ever be produced. People are turning around and selling them for $200,000! For a cash intensive business, Lucid would be crazy not to deliver more of their highest profit margin car.

They promised the owners that already bought them it would be 520 and no more. They can't do that without getting sued for lost value (ie: my car is no longer as valuable as it was as now there are 600 of them vs just 520)

 

[MidwestLucidDude]

It's not bad to know the demand was great, but saying you will only produce 520 and then producing more is the bad look.

Some may look at it that way but it could also get people thinking this thing is RED HOT and I gotta have one. Making a few hundred more would be OK for most, I would think. But if you were going to double the number of limited editions then I would agree with you more. Look at it this way. We know Lucid has a waiting list. Those folks want a Dream. Do you want to be the person who tells those folks you can't have one? To me that is the bad look.

 

[MidwestLucidDude]

They promised the owners that already bought them it would be 520 and no more. They can't do that without getting sued for lost value (ie: my car is no longer as valuable as it was as now there are 600 of them vs just 520)

I agree. But I've not seen anything printed where Lucid says, "We will produce only 520 Dreams." I have read that was their goal by the end of 2021. If you can share a screen shot where Lucid states the Dream is Limited to only 520, then I'll believe it!

 

[MidwestLucidDude]

I agree. But I've not seen anything printed where Lucid says, "We will produce only 520 Dreams." I have read that was their goal by the end of 2021. If you can share a screen shot where Lucid states the Dream is Limited to only 520, then I'll believe it!

They increased production of the Dream once before. They could do it again. I've looked on the Lucid website and the Q3 2021 report. Can't find any statement that they'll limit to only 520.

 

[mnewber1]

They increased production of the Dream once before. They could do it again. I've looked on the Lucid website and the Q3 2021 report. Can't find any statement that they'll limit to only 520.

I guess that's a good point, I will look for the explicit statement saying they're limiting Dream Editions to 520. I guess what's suspicious is that the highest DE # we've seen is 354, so you would think if they're going over that 520 amount, we would've seen at least one person saying they have a higher number.

 

[dawktah LucidGT]

So far I've only heard of one person that was upgraded from AGT to Dream.