LCID 2021 Q4 Earnings

[Paladin732]

So far I've only heard of one person that was upgraded from AGT to Dream.

I know of two, including myself.

 

[MidwestLucidDude]

I guess that's a good point, I will look for the explicit statement saying they're limiting Dream Editions to 520. I guess what's suspicious is that the highest DE # we've seen is 354, so you would think if they're going over that 520 amount, we would've seen at least one person saying they have a higher number.

You raise a good point too. As well as dawktah LucidGT who said they only heard one person being upgraded from AGT to Dream. Those are solid indicators but no way conclusive or scientific. My hunch is that the vast majority of people ordering a Dream are in a different class that highly value their privacy and may not even have social media accounts. Just guessing, but I'd say maybe 25% of Dream owners might be of the type to toot their own horns (pun intended). Out of that 25%, we know of none that have a VIN number higher than 354 and only one has been upgraded to Dream. Yes, I still think out of that 25% someone should have a VIN higher than 354, but you never know.

Here is my thought process if I wanted a Dream. I've read the Car and Driver review, and it won Car of the Year. It is obviously an instant classic. I want a Dream P or nothing. The only way to have a shot at it is to reserve a AGT and then get my name on the wait list for a Dream. In fact you can still do that today. When Lucid calls to say they can confirm my order, if they don't have the Dream P I want, I let them know I'm canceling my order. I don't even want the AGT. I now picture the discussion at Lucid HQ. Do we really want to give up orders for our most profitable car because people on the wait list don't want a AGT? Do we want to lose the sale altogether? Then, what number seems logical to you? My hunch is they'll end up with 550-750 Dream Editions to satisfy the demand. That number still makes it exclusive and is a reasonable increase. Really hoping my hunch is spot on.

 

[WildRide47]

So far I've only heard of one person that was upgraded from AGT to Dream.

I do have to agree somewhat with MidwestLuciddu. It would have made more sense for Lucid to say we are planning to make just 520 DE cars, but will reconsider adding if demand is there.

I highly doubt that anyone who ordered a DE would cancel their order. I would assume most who ordered this car did so because they wanted the top horsepower model. And if some did cancel, I'm sure that would be more than made up by others who would fill in the difference.

Lucid could have made more money this way. Why limit their potential income. I doubt there would have been that many cancellations.

After all, are people ordering this car(DE) for collector status or are they ordering it for what this car offers in performance etc

 

[Grnr92663]

The strategy that car companies have used & worked well: make just enough to be a bit bellow demands.

Seen it with Hermes, Ferrari, Porsches, Lambo, Philips Patek.... Can't see why Lucid won't do it with the Dream Air.

 

[HC_79]

Lucid can't survive on making a $170K car alone so the longer they focus on Dreams only the harder it is to get a steady volume of sales. They need to get to the Pure as quick as possible in order to compete in the market it wants to play in. Much larger group of people in the $70K to $100K arena than there are in the $150K+ arena. Mercedes seems to be playing a very interesting game when it comes to its EV pricing and also seems to be one of the more efficient cars coming out of Germany. Lucid has a very limited window to get itself established and with the EQE coming down the pipeline they need to get the Pure out before if not at the same time.

What's the majority of responses when they flaunt the EPA of the Lucid? It's $170K! That's not a positive comment for a company trying to appeal to a broader audience. They need to move on from the Dreams as quick as possible.

 

[MidwestLucidDude]

The strategy that car companies have used & worked well: make just enough to be a bit bellow demands.

Seen it with Hermes, Ferrari, Porsches, Lambo, Philips Patek.... Can't see why Lucid won't do it with the Dream Air.

Right. The question is what level is that at? We don't know. European Old Money, Saudi Oil Rich, Drug King Pins, Hollywood Moguls. You know those folks that have to have only the best and look at it in part as an investment, where's the demand? To me, 520 seem to me to be a drop in the bucket.

 

[hydbob]

See, I look at it the other way, the small amount they can make by going back on what they promised is not worth their reputation hit. It's one thing to promise a certain amount of deliveries by a specific time but you can't because of outside influences. To decide to produce more than what you said speaks to the corporate philosophy and that is bad to go back on that.

 

[MidwestLucidDude]

See, I look at it the other way, the small amount they can make by going back on what they promised is not worth their reputation hit. It's one thing to promise a certain amount of deliveries by a specific time but you can't because of outside influences. To decide to produce more than what you said speaks to the corporate philosophy and that is bad to go back on that

What worked for Cabbage Patch Dolls works for cars. If it is hard to get one you want it even more. I see no hit to a reputation when demand is high. It will only be hit if the delays are due to quality issues or parts shortage.

IF...there is huge demand for the Dream, who do you want too piss off more? A Dream is just a more powerful motor and perhaps a software code tweak. Let's say $25,000 more profit per car. IF you decide to make 1,000 instead of 520, that is $12 million more in Lucid's bank. IF...you are having supply chain shortages and high demand for the Dream, how would you solve that problem? I would take the money and run. This could be a dream come true....for Lucid.

 

[dawktah LucidGT]

Lucid can't survive on making a $170K car alone so the longer they focus on Dreams only the harder it is to get a steady volume of sales. They need to get to the Pure as quick as possible in order to compete in the market it wants to play in. Much larger group of people in the $70K to $100K arena than there are in the $150K+ arena. Mercedes seems to be playing a very interesting game when it comes to its EV pricing and also seems to be one of the more efficient cars coming out of Germany. Lucid has a very limited window to get itself established and with the EQE coming down the pipeline they need to get the Pure out before if not at the same time.

What's the majority of responses when they flaunt the EPA of the Lucid? It's $170K! That's not a positive comment for a company trying to appeal to a broader audience. They need to move on from the Dreams as quick as possible.

Bingo! Lucid shot themselves in the foot by introducing the Dream P. Should have left the AGT as the leader of the range pack as it is a car remaining in production! They are almost forced to make more Dream P, its only 4 miles but tell that to the silver medalist.

 

[hydbob]

What worked for Cabbage Patch Dolls works for cars. If it is hard to get one you want it even more. I see no hit to a reputation when demand is high. It will only be hit if the delays are due to quality issues or parts shortage.

IF...there is huge demand for the Dream, who do you want too piss off more? A Dream is just a more powerful motor and perhaps a software code tweak. Let's say $25,000 more profit per car. IF you decide to make 1,000 instead of 520, that is $12 million more in Lucid's bank. IF...you are having supply chain shortages and high demand for the Dream, how would you solve that problem? I would take the money and run. This could be a dream come true....for Lucid.

12 million is a drop in the bucket if investors lose confidence that the company philosophy isn't aligned with what they are saying to the public.

 

[Adnillien]

12 million is a drop in the bucket if investors lose confidence that the company philosophy isn't aligned with what they are saying to the public.

I agree with @hydbob here. Lucid sold the Dream Edition as a limited run of 1st vehicles. Some buyers waited 4 or more years for those cars. Lucid would lose a lot of goodwill if they went back on that. When building a new brand reputation and trust are very very important.

Besides the the West Coast Lucid Dudes at Lucid HQ have already teased the tri-motor Air that will have more horsepower than the Dream. Hence, Lucid has a plan to tap the market that @MidwestLucidDude speaks of. The plan does not offend any DE buyers, in fact some DE buyers may trade up for it.

 

[steveairgt]

I would expect lawsuits from current DE owners if they sell more than 520. It was announced as a limited edition to a specific number.

Personally I would love a DE. On the other hand if I already bought this limited edition item and now they allowed others to buy after the 520, I’d be pissed.

Having said that, I’m long Lucid and awaiting my AGT.

 

[WildRide47]

12 million is a drop in the bucket if investors lose confidence that the company philosophy isn't aligned with what they are saying to the public.

Once they make the tri-motor, the Dream will no longer be the top dog. Over time, something better always comes along. That's why some people trade in cars in less than 5 years, when most cars will last a decade or longer. I agree with Midwest. Why give up more money. They could just offer the Dream motor(in Range) as an upgrade over the GT for an additional 20K and I bet they would get a lot of takers. And the Dream would still be unique.

 

[HC_79]

It is interesting that Peter made this comment

“The simple fact is that manufacturing, ensuring the quality of our product is right, is too precious, too critical, an activity to entrust to a third party,” he told investors. “We have to control our own destiny.”

Yet, what has caught them out with the delays? a part from a 3rd party....... It's kind of embarrassing for all the promises he made and couldn't even secure quality parts for 520 vehicles.

 

[MidwestLucidDude]

I would expect lawsuits from current DE owners if they sell more than 520. It was announced as a limited edition to a specific number.

Personally I would love a DE. On the other hand if I already bought this limited edition item and now they allowed others to buy after the 520, I’d be pissed.

Having said that, I’m long Lucid and awaiting my AGT.

They already increased it once. Check out that news below. I'm sure there is nothing in writing promising only a certain number. That would be really dumb on Lucid's part.

Lucid Will Build More Dream Edition Cars To Celebrate Range Record

Lucid has announced final details of the limited production Lucid Air Dream Edition cars, which will enter the market in two versions (Range and Performance).

insideevs.com

 

[steveairgt]

Hi folks
It seems those of us on this owners site know a lot more about the state of deliveries than others.

I’m on several Facebook groups where people seem to try to pump up the stock regardless of what anyone says. When someone says they’ve read on owners sites and forums that Lucid didn’t meet their stated goals of 520/577, that it’s more like 200-250, they get jumped all over. People say you don’t know that for sure.

My question is since we all know “approx” what the delivery numbers are for 2021, don’t Wall Street analysts know this? Wouldn’t you expect the stock to be lower than it already is? Plus it seems there’s no way they can sell 20,000 cars this year. We all expect I think a lowering of forecast.

Your thoughts?

 

[steveairgt]

They already increased it once. Check out that news below. I'm sure there is nothing in writing promising only a certain number. That would be really dumb on Lucid's part.

Lucid Will Build More Dream Edition Cars To Celebrate Range Record

Lucid has announced final details of the limited production Lucid Air Dream Edition cars, which will enter the market in two versions (Range and Performance).

insideevs.com

That was a long time ago based on the EPA number. I suspect if they increased it arbitrarily to say 600 due to demand, existing owners would be upset.

 

[HC_79]

Hi folks
It seems those of us on this owners site know a lot more about the state of deliveries than others.

I’m on several Facebook groups where people seem to try to pump up the stock regardless of what anyone says. When someone says they’ve read on owners sites and forums that Lucid didn’t meet their stated goals of 520/577, that it’s more like 200-250, they get jumped all over. People say you don’t know that for sure.

My question is since we all know “approx” what the delivery numbers are for 2021, don’t Wall Street analysts know this? Wouldn’t you expect the stock to be lower than it already is? Plus it seems there’s no way they can sell 20,000 cars this year. We all expect I think a lowering of forecast.

Your thoughts?

I guess it depends to how aggressively Wall Street follows forums, Facebook etc. All the news about Lucid on the internet seems to be positive with awards, accolades, etc and the issues seem to be a very closely guarded secret and hidden well. I wouldn't be surprised to see the price tank on the earnings call based on the missed deliveries and re-forecasting the yearly but I could be wrong.

 

[eurekaboo]

Lucid's own press release states that the "limited run" is 520 vehicles, so it would be pretty bold for them to change that.

Announcing final details of the limited production Lucid Air Dream Edition.

There were luxury cars, then EVs, and now there’s Lucid — the new generation of luxury electric.

www.lucidmotors.com

Besides @Jon_Rettinger there's at least 3-4 more of us on this forum that have said they upgraded from AGT reservations, so there were a decent number of cancellations.

 

[MidwestLucidDude]

Hi folks
It seems those of us on this owners site know a lot more about the state of deliveries than others.

I’m on several Facebook groups where people seem to try to pump up the stock regardless of what anyone says. When someone says they’ve read on owners sites and forums that Lucid didn’t meet their stated goals of 520/577, that it’s more like 200-250, they get jumped all over. People say you don’t know that for sure.

My question is since we all know “approx” what the delivery numbers are for 2021, don’t Wall Street analysts know this? Wouldn’t you expect the stock to be lower than it already is? Plus it seems there’s no way they can sell 20,000 cars this year. We all expect I think a lowering of forecast.

Your thoughts?

I agree with your assessment of Facebook and even Twitter. The only thing I've learned is don't make a big stock purchase based on what you hear on social media. What this group could help us with is this:

1. Insider trading - Are insiders buying, holding, or selling? I would expect to see insider selling if there are serious production issues even though that is technically not allowed. But then ask yourself how did Musk sell so much at the top of the market?

2. Big institutional positions - Here again, those institutions closest to the action such as the Saudi Wealth Fund. Are the buying, holding, or selling?

3. Suppliers - Lucid is getting their aluminum from CENX, their batteries from LG, and LG is getting lithium from several sources including Sigma Lithium. They all are doing well but Lucid is only a small part of their business. I don't know where Lucid is getting their chips. The more we can share supplier information and look for clues about the business they do with Lucid, that might help just a little.

But your right, we all should heavily discount the news on social media. Do your own research as much as possible.