LCID 2021 Q4 Earnings

[Neurio]

I believe that once deliveries or production numbers are reported the stock will dip into the teens. Once AMP-2 and 3 are finished and production gets to where we'd like it to be, that number could go as high as $65 this year. Who knows what we will see this month, however, Bear's Workshop seems to think they made more than 520 DEs.

They may have produced more than 520, but some are testers or display vehicles. They said 520 customer cars and there's no reason to believe they are planning to make more than that.

 

[mnewber1]

They may have produced more than 520, but some are testers or display vehicles. They said 520 customer cars and there's no reason to believe they are planning to make more than that.

I sure hope they didn't make more than 520 customer cars but I fully believe if they made more (even for studios) they will use those numbers.

 

[steveairgt]

It seems that best case they deliver all 520 DEs by ER or end of Feb. That gives them 10 months to deliver 21,500 vehicles. As much I want/hope it will happen, it really can’t IMO. So Lucid will most likely reduce guidance to a lower number like 10,000 - 12,000. Can they really ramp up production from a few where they are now to a level of 1000 per month in the next month or so?

Remember they can’t realize revenue until the car is delivered even if paid for.

 

[Grnr92663]

I believe that once deliveries or production numbers are reported the stock will dip into the teens. Once AMP-2 and 3 are finished and production gets to where we'd like it to be, that number could go as high as $65 this year. Who knows what we will see this month, however, Bear's Workshop seems to think they made more than 520 DEs.

Most of the time, when there's a consensus about how a stock would move, it often goes the other way around ....

NOBODY can predict how the stock would move near term (matter of fact, nobody can even predict share price at all). In short term, share price & company potential has little coupling. The market can drive share one way or another based on whatever narrative it comes up with.

The last time LCID reported earnings, its share price went up more than 300% and burned a lot of shorts. Similarly, when there was a strong rumor that PIPE would dump on Jan 19th and cause a massive price drop, shares went all the way to near the 50s, took out all the shorts. Then tank, and smacked the long along the way....

Our family own more than 200K shares of LCID (at avg low teens), and have witnessed a couple of cycle of violent rise & tank in the last 14 months. To us, that is the price (volatilities) for investing in a high growth & potential company in its infancy. We made the decision to invest into LCID (CCIV back then) based on the result of our research about the company's technology and its people/culture - as we've often done with our other investments.

We went through similar phases with AMD (yep, at one time, share price was $2 pre-split, less than 10 years ago) and NVDA... Both were laughed at by INTC & IBM fans as a wannabe little as five years ago.

 

[MidwestLucidDude]

I believe that once deliveries or production numbers are reported the stock will dip into the teens. Once AMP-2 and 3 are finished and production gets to where we'd like it to be, that number could go as high as $65 this year. Who knows what we will see this month, however, Bear's Workshop seems to think they made more than 520 DEs.

You may be right, and yes, Bear's Workshop thinks they've made more, or perhaps they're just moving cars around on their lot to confuse Bear? But here is the point in Bear's Workshop video where he talks about this issue. He certainly thinks more have been made, perhaps on a boat to Saudi Arabia!

 

[hydbob]

I wonder why people think they are shifting cars around to confuse people instead of just sorting out batches based on where they are parked lol

 

[mnewber1]

You may be right, and yes, Bear's Workshop thinks they've made more, or perhaps they're just moving cars around on their lot to confuse Bear? But here is the point in Bear's Workshop video where he talks about this issue. He certainly thinks more have been made, perhaps on a boat to Saudi Arabia!

I think a lot of people on these forums think that Bear's numbers aren't accurate and I tend to agree. There's no way to know how many cars have come and gone, or what cars were taken for test drives and moved to a different spot. Because GT only just begun production and VINs being assigned, I have a feeling that they maybe just barely met their 520 number recently or shortly in the future.

@Adnillien, did you have your name on the Dream Edition waitlist? If so, and you weren't offered a Dream, I doubt anyone else really got one.

 

[SaratogaLefty]

My guess is they are storing the cars on the lot depending upon what "fit and finish" part(s) they are waiting for. My HA told me there are cars waiting on different parts. So it could be they are sorted and then come into the shop when that particular part is received.

 

[Steveinarizona]

They increased production of the Dream once before. They could do it again. I've looked on the Lucid website and the Q3 2021 report. Can't find any statement that they'll limit to only 520.

Assuming Lucid did make such a claim, then all it has to do is slightly reconfigure it and call it something different.

 

[steveairgt]

My guess is they are storing the cars on the lot depending upon what "fit and finish" part(s) they are waiting for. My HA told me there are cars waiting on different parts. So it could be they are sorted and then come into the shop when that particular part is received.

I believe you are right. Why would they spend any resources trying to fool Bear? I think he’s all about click bait. Doesn’t show anything definitive.
It makes much more sense that they sort cars based on what parts are being waited on. That could also explain why a higher DE number is delivered before a lower number.

 

[Adnillien]

@Adnillien, did you have your name on the Dream Edition waitlist? If so, and you weren't offered a Dream, I doubt anyone else really got one.

I was not on the DE wait list.

My guess is they are storing the cars on the lot depending upon what "fit and finish" part(s) they are waiting for. My HA told me there are cars waiting on different parts. So it could be they are sorted and then come into the shop when that particular part is received.

I agree and hence Bear's would have no way of knowing which cars were new and which were just moved. I seriously doubt Lucid would waste their time intentionally trying to confuse Bear's

 

[CLTGT]

I agree, but it would be kinda funny. They should just sprinkle them throughout the employee lot.

 

[SaratogaLefty]

I believe you are right. Why would they spend any resources trying to fool Bear? I think he’s all about click bait. Doesn’t show anything definitive.
It makes much more sense that they sort cars based on what parts are being waited on. That could also explain why a higher DE number is delivered before a lower number.

So the person who indicated his DE# was 458 did not provide a photo yet. In fact he hasn't received his car yet and is just going by what his DA told him. My DA said they don't have any way to determine the DE# from their end so I'm skeptical if his number is really 458. When/if he provides a photo then we will know for sure.

 

[dawktah LucidGT]

I think a lot of people on these forums think that Bear's numbers aren't accurate and I tend to agree. There's no way to know how many cars have come and gone, or what cars were taken for test drives and moved to a different spot. Because GT only just begun production and VINs being assigned, I have a feeling that they maybe just barely met their 520 number recently or shortly in the future.

@Adnillien, did you have your name on the Dream Edition waitlist? If so, and you weren't offered a Dream, I doubt anyone else really got one.

I can't wait to find out what part(s) are the fit and finish they are having issues with.

 

[SaratogaLefty]

I can't wait to find out what part(s) are the fit and finish they are having issues with.

I asked but she said she didn't have any specific information. My guess is we will never know exactly which part(s) have caused the holdup. I'm still wondering if it is just software updates that are causing the delays?? Maybe they don't want to put any more cars out on the road until the new 1.1.7 update is fully available??

 

[mnewber1]

I asked but she said she didn't have any specific information. My guess is we will never know exactly which part(s) have caused the holdup. I'm still wondering if it is just software updates that are causing the delays?? Maybe they don't want to put any more cars out on the road until the new 1.1.7 update is fully available??

The one delivery that was delayed so that they can have 1.1.7 was delayed on request on behalf of the owner. AFAIK Lucid was going to deliver it without the update until the owner asked for it.

 

[HC_79]

I'm also assuming the cars being placed all over the lot are in batches due to missing parts etc. The thing that amazes me though is how Lucid got so caught out on this. The car was delayed 6 months and they still couldn't manage to make sure they had the parts for 520 vehicles??? Or did they just store them in a warehouse and when going into production realized there was a quality issue with the parts then scrambled to order more.

Given the supply chain constraints you would have thought they would have ordered things well in advance to make sure they could hit the deliverables. Again, this was for 520 cars so if they screwed it up on that small number how can we trust that it's not entirely messed up for the mass produced cars and everything coming from Lucid is going to be at a snails pace.

All speculation of course, but Lucid not communicating doesn't help them at all.

 

[hmp10]

They may have produced more than 520, but some are testers or display vehicles. They said 520 customer cars and there's no reason to believe they are planning to make more than that.

This might rest on the meaning of "customer cars". At one point, Lucid mentioned 577 Dreams would be produced. And in mid-2020 I was told by someone at Lucid that some of the Dreams would go to company directors, senior executives, and major investors. I suspect they are a large part of what might account for the difference between 520 "customer cars" and 577 Dreams to be produced.

 

[mnewber1]

This might rest on the meaning of "customer cars". At one point, Lucid mentioned 577 Dreams would be produced. And in mid-2020 I was told by someone at Lucid that some of the Dreams would go to company directors, senior executives, and major investors. I suspect they are a large part of what might account for the difference between 520 "customer cars" and 577 Dreams to be produced.

Major investors, like the Saudis? That might explain why there may have been more than 520 made and observed.

 

[hmp10]

The thing that amazes me though is how Lucid got so caught out on this. The car was delayed 6 months and they still couldn't manage to make sure they had the parts for 520 vehicles???

I think you're overlooking the impact of disruptions throughout the supply chain. The vendors who make components for Lucid almost certainly do so for other manufacturers as well, most of whom are much higher volume customers than Lucid is at this early stage. These vendors quite likely also had the same problems with securing materials, transport disruptions of supplies into their shops, high absenteeism during Covid, etc. that has plagued almost all manufacturers for the past two years.

As has happened with chips and an array of products, these vendors would likely give first priority to filling orders for older, higher-volume customers than for Lucid.