Grand Touring Tracker (Archive)

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Does anyone have any intel---or even educated guesses---about the following:

1) Assuming 25,000+ reservations, how are they spread among DE, GT, Touring, and Pure?

2) From the small sample size so far, what % of reservation holders decline to commit when their number is called (or ask for their deposit back before)?

Great question. At 25,000 reservations - the average cost was 95,000. We can assume now that reservation totals are Pure > Grand Touring > Touring > Grand Touring Performance.

I don’t know how many have cancelled once it’s time to pay, but there have been 4-5 people on here who got moved up because someone cancelled.
 
Here is my take on this from before:


tldr: We don't have enough information to truly know the distribution of orders. If we were able to learn how many more GT than Touring reservations we could nail it down.

@Dortreo also considered this question and did a really neat analysis.
 
Here is my take on this from before:


tldr: We don't have enough information to truly know the distribution of orders. If we were able to learn how many more GT than Touring reservations we could nail it down.

@Dortreo also considered this question and did a really neat analysis.

It would be nice if Lucid released a breakdown, I don't see how doing so would be a negative business move. But given how secretive they have been, I don't see them doing so.
 
It would be nice if Lucid released a breakdown, I don't see how doing so would be a negative business move. But given how secretive they have been, I don't see them doing so.
As they move through the trims and release numbers during earnings reports, we should get a much better picture at what the real breakdown is.
 
The real figures would make for bad press and the stock price might drop drastically. Hopefully they can ramp up before the second quarter report comes out.
 
I think Lucid protected themselves a bit for a rough Q1 and Q2 earnings report. They said in the last earnings call that they’re hindered by quality and shortages and didn’t expect that to improve until June.

Peter said recently that that plant can go faster than what it is today but glass, carpet etc. caught them out. So it may be that the back half of the year is going to speed up immensely vs. the trickle that continues. Looking over the last few weeks though, more and more cars seem to be hitting the lots and Service Centers so things do seem to be moving in the right direction.
 
As they move through the trims and release numbers during earnings reports, we should get a much better picture at what the real breakdown is.
I'd expect the analyst community to ask some of these questions---maybe on the next earnings call in May.
 
Given December 28th confirmation, getting VIN April 24 to May 1st would suit me fine. Given current delivery times that should put my car in Millbrae mid June.
Not sure what the impact of Grey production will be but based on recent activity of those that received a VIN in March and got deliveries, it's more like 2 to 4 weeks from VIN to delivery.
 
That plant is supposed to be capable of producing 24 to 34 thousand cars a year, so at a minimum 66 cars a day if they have their supply chain in order. But we don’t know if that number accounts for the current assembly line occupying the paint shop in AMP-1, which will continue until AMP-2 is opened. So, the number could be a lot less because the paint shop is a bottleneck.

In the end, it’s all speculation.

A few observations:

I think Lucid by and large sticks to what they say they are going to do. However, their scenario planning probably didn’t account for supply issues with commodity components. (And the production plant is probably not communicating these issues too well, so sales is left in the dark. But that’s a different topic.) So, I believe that Lucid’s management is fully expecting to exceed the 14K target. But the follow-on effects from a totally borked supply chain will keep things interesting.

Lucid is willing to hold cars back if they don’t pass their quality inspection and that’s what you want when you buy a six figure auto. While I see this as an overall positive, it does mean lower throughout, especially as cars seem to get hung up in PDI. It’s also not clear how well their quality inspections work as major issues appear to be cropping up at PDI.

Lucid’s long term problem will be demand, not supply. There’s just not much of a super car market out there. And it’s being divided up amongst many players with better name recognition. The Gravity being delayed a year is not great news either. So, Lucid has to continue to encourage demand even in the face of difficulty in supply. Hence, lots of marketing activities that will strike those of us waiting for cars as tone deaf.
 
Here is my take on this from before:


tldr: We don't have enough information to truly know the distribution of orders. If we were able to learn how many more GT than Touring reservations we could nail it down.

@Dortreo also considered this question and did a really neat analysis.

Thanks! I projected these numbers a while back after the Q1 earnings call and haven't touched them since. I wouldn't be surprised though if the numbers are drifting downward due to ongoing supply issues. Take these numbers with a very large boulder of salt. These numbers are really meant to be an illustration of what Lucid would have to achieve if it really wants to get to 14K cars produced in 2022. At some point, Lucid's going to have to hit the inflection point and actually run that factory close to its max capacity. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if the sigmoid part of the curve ends up being a lot flatter due to supply and process issues. If that's the case, Lucid's got no path to 14K vehicles this year.

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I suspect almost every single manufacturer will miss their estimated projections this year
 
I think Lucid protected themselves a bit for a rough Q1 and Q2 earnings report. They said in the last earnings call that they’re hindered by quality and shortages and didn’t expect that to improve until June.

Peter said recently that that plant can go faster than what it is today but glass, carpet etc. caught them out. So it may be that the back half of the year is going to speed up immensely vs. the trickle that continues. Looking over the last few weeks though, more and more cars seem to be hitting the lots and Service Centers so things do seem to be moving in the right direction.
But are the cars in the service centers there for “service” or “delivery”?
 
Here's some information I got from a sales advisor today at Oak Brook Mall:
  • If you were to order a silver GT today, you're looking at December timeframe for delivery.
  • There has been no internal communication about a potential sentry mode update.
  • Your confirmation date dictates your place in production, once you get your confirmation email, your reservation date is now obsolete.
  • Touring confirmations expected to start in Q3, sent in batches similar to how GT started.
I also observed the studio model of the Pre-Production Dream they had was on version 1.0.0 (current version available is 1.2.1) and it has 21" Aero Blade wheels (Dreams usually have Aero Dream wheels).
 
Here's some information I got from a sales advisor today at Oak Brook Mall:
  • If you were to order a silver GT today, you're looking at December timeframe for delivery.
  • There has been no internal communication about a potential sentry mode update.
  • Your confirmation date dictates your place in production, once you get your confirmation email, your reservation date is now obsolete.
  • Touring confirmations expected to start in Q3, sent in batches similar to how GT started.
I also observed the studio model of the Pre-Production Dream they had was on version 1.0.0 (current version available is 1.2.1) and it has 21" Aero Blade wheels (Dreams usually have Aero Dream wheels).
December?! But I confirmed mine in March so it’ll be ready in July…right? If not…at least my wife won’t need to Xmas shop for me. <sigh>
 
December?! But I confirmed mine in March so it’ll be ready in July…right? If not…at least my wife won’t need to Xmas shop for me. <sigh>

These studio advisors are (sorry Lucid employees reading this) not the most knowledgable on the most up-to-date information. This is just what he said. He did not do a great job selling me on Grand Touring to upgrade.
 
That plant is supposed to be capable of producing 24 to 34 thousand cars a year, so at a minimum 66 cars a day if they have their supply chain in order. But we don’t know if that number accounts for the current assembly line occupying the paint shop in AMP-1, which will continue until AMP-2 is opened. So, the number could be a lot less because the paint shop is a bottleneck.

In the end, it’s all speculation.

A few observations:

I think Lucid by and large sticks to what they say they are going to do. However, their scenario planning probably didn’t account for supply issues with commodity components. (And the production plant is probably not communicating these issues too well, so sales is left in the dark. But that’s a different topic.) So, I believe that Lucid’s management is fully expecting to exceed the 14K target. But the follow-on effects from a totally borked supply chain will keep things interesting.

Lucid is willing to hold cars back if they don’t pass their quality inspection and that’s what you want when you buy a six figure auto. While I see this as an overall positive, it does mean lower throughout, especially as cars seem to get hung up in PDI. It’s also not clear how well their quality inspections work as major issues appear to be cropping up at PDI.

Lucid’s long term problem will be demand, not supply. There’s just not much of a super car market out there. And it’s being divided up amongst many players with better name recognition. The Gravity being delayed a year is not great news either. So, Lucid has to continue to encourage demand even in the face of difficulty in supply. Hence, lots of marketing activities that will strike those of us waiting for cars as tone deaf.
Your comment about demand being Lucid’s long term challenge reminded me — I’ve been seeing a second wave of tv commercials, first since early last year. Is everyone seeing them across the country or is it a regional campaign (I’m in the mid-Atlantic)? I don’t know the cost / benefit of these ads but unless management is really out of touch they must have confidence their production will soon catch up. Otherwise, why advertise now?
 
Your comment about demand being Lucid’s long term challenge reminded me — I’ve been seeing a second wave of tv commercials, first since early last year. Is everyone seeing them across the country or is it a regional campaign (I’m in the mid-Atlantic)? I don’t know the cost / benefit of these ads but unless management is really out of touch they must have confidence their production will soon catch up. Otherwise, why advertise now?
Yea, it's really not terrible considering any other EV you try and order now is pretty much 1 year away anyways.
 
No advertising in the Houston, Texas area. The metropolitan area is approx. 8 million.
 
Your comment about demand being Lucid’s long term challenge reminded me — I’ve been seeing a second wave of tv commercials, first since early last year. Is everyone seeing them across the country or is it a regional campaign (I’m in the mid-Atlantic)? I don’t know the cost / benefit of these ads but unless management is really out of touch they must have confidence their production will soon catch up. Otherwise, why advertise now?

I see them frequently. They aired it on the Oscars and has been airing since then. I’m in Chicago.
 
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