Lucid replaced one of its top people

[WildRide47]

Lucid’s manufacturing facility in Casa Grande, Arizona
This development, taken together with the late May news that Lucid replaced its manufacturing chief, could portend a further cut in full-year 2022 vehicle production guidance. In late February, Lucid reset its 2022 goal to 12,000 to 14,000 Lucid Air electric cars from the 20,000 unit goal it had articulated as recently as mid-November 2021.

In order to produce 12,000 to 14,000 vehicles in 2022, equivalent to 1,000+ per month, Lucid would have to increase the pace of manufacturing dramatically. The company delivered just 360 cars to customers in 1Q 2022 and 125 in 4Q 2021.

(in thousands of US $, except for shares outstanding)	March 31, 2022	December 31, 2021	September 30, 2021
Lucid Air Vehicles Delivered	360	125	0
Revenue	$57,675	$26,392	$232
Operating Income	($597,530)	($485,684)	($497,050)
Operating Cash Flow	($494,639)	($312,733)	(A)
Capital Expenditures	($185,082)
Adjusted EBITDA	($383,781)	($299,583)	($244,962)
Cash – Period End	$5,391,844	$6,262,905	$4,796,880
Debt – Period End	$1,998,571	$1,997,057	$7,955
Shares Outstanding (Millions)	1,668	1,648	1,642

 

[MoniputerLM]

Lucid’s manufacturing facility in Casa Grande, Arizona
This development, taken together with the late May news that Lucid replaced its manufacturing chief, could portend a further cut in full-year 2022 vehicle production guidance. In late February, Lucid reset its 2022 goal to 12,000 to 14,000 Lucid Air electric cars from the 20,000 unit goal it had articulated as recently as mid-November 2021.

In order to produce 12,000 to 14,000 vehicles in 2022, equivalent to 1,000+ per month, Lucid would have to increase the pace of manufacturing dramatically. The company delivered just 360 cars to customers in 1Q 2022 and 125 in 4Q 2021.

(in thousands of US $, except for shares outstanding)	March 31, 2022	December 31, 2021	September 30, 2021
Lucid Air Vehicles Delivered	360	125	0
Revenue	$57,675	$26,392	$232
Operating Income	($597,530)	($485,684)	($497,050)
Operating Cash Flow	($494,639)	($312,733)	(A)
Capital Expenditures	($185,082)
Adjusted EBITDA	($383,781)	($299,583)	($244,962)
Cash – Period End	$5,391,844	$6,262,905	$4,796,880
Debt – Period End	$1,998,571	$1,997,057	$7,955
Shares Outstanding (Millions)	1,668	1,648	1,642

Interesting that my DE is #185, received 12/31/2021, but Lucid had only delivered125 cars by then.

 

[Sandvinsd]

Old news. But as for the productions estimate cuts, many of us on the forum have been saying for months that their downward revised estimates are still too optimistic. Considering that Lucid gives earnings reports at the last possible date, they aren’t scheduled to say anything about Q2 production until very late August. Don't expect anything before then. I expect those Q2 numbers to be abysmal. They are hoping to have their sh** together by late August so they can say - although supply chain constraints affected our Q2 numbers, we have scaled up considerably and produced xxx cars in July or August. The Q1 call said that these supply chain constraints would end in June, Well, June is in the rear view mirror, July is next week and they are still taking up to 13 weeks to deliver a car post VIN assignment.

 

[Sandvinsd]

Interesting that my DE is #185, received 12/31/2021, but Lucid had only delivered125 cars by then.

Neither Dream edition numbers or confirmation dates were done / are done in order.

 

[MoniputerLM]

Neither Dream edition numbers or confirmation dates were done / are done in order.

I assumed that. I am sure that color was a factor. Just seems like a big gap. I am not complaining, I got my car as promised, "by the end of 2021".

 

[Sandvinsd]

I assumed that. I am sure that color was a factor. Just seems like a big gap. I am not complaining, I got my car as promised, "by the end of 2021".

Yes. You were lucky.

 

[Demosthenes]

Yeah there seem to be two categories of ‘luckies’ - those that got their dreams before the end of 2021 and those that got their GTs by April 2022.

 

[joec]

Old news. But as for the productions estimate cuts, many of us on the forum have been saying for months that their downward revised estimates are still too optimistic. Considering that Lucid gives earnings reports at the last possible date, they aren’t scheduled to say anything about Q2 production until very late August. Don't expect anything before then. I expect those Q2 numbers to be abysmal. They are hoping to have their sh** together by late August so they can say - although supply chain constraints affected our Q2 numbers, we have scaled up considerably and produced xxx cars in July or August. The Q1 call said that these supply chain constraints would end in June, Well, June is in the rear view mirror, July is next week and they are still taking up to 13 weeks to deliver a car post VIN assignment.

Are they, though?

Are you certain a VIN assigned today will take 13 weeks to deliver? I might take that bet mysefl, but we won't know for sure until 13 weeks from now, right?

I get that a lot of VINs assigned 13 weeks ago are still outstanding, but by your own words, that was during the supply chain constraints that Lucid was both aware of and made us aware of.

 

[Sandvinsd]

Are they, though?

Are you certain a VIN assigned today will take 13 weeks to deliver? I might take that bet mysefl, but we won't know for sure until 13 weeks from now, right?

I get that a lot of VINs assigned 13 weeks ago are still outstanding, but by your own words, that was during the supply chain constraints that Lucid was both aware of and made us aware of.

Never said that VINs issued today will take 13 weeks, but who knows. If you want to bet on the April VINs which I was referring to, then what do you want to wager? I’m at 9 weeks now. Remember, it takes a couple of weeks minimum for transport and PDI and my car is still at the factory.

as for 2022 production numbers:

• Peter in the Q1 earnings call said supply chain constraints would be resolved by June. June ends this week.
• If the supply chain constraints had been solved, those April VINs should be out of production. The fact that they have not indicates that constraints are still present. Perhaps the next couple weeks will tell us more.
• Next week starts Q3. They are going to have to average almost 2k per month, or 500 per week to meet their lowered estimates. Through Q2, they have not even done 500 mer month. That is a steep production ramp slope to climb. Year end numbers will have to be revised downwards.

As for timelines for confirmations and VINs issued today and getting back to realistic ones.

• For the 2-4 month delivery post confirmation. Lucid must either restrict new confirmations or increase throughput. Supply chain constraints limit throughput so Lucid has done the former. Fewer vehicles are entering the queue because they are not confirming orders as fast (only when a new GT reservation gets made. No touring orders have been confirmed). They are currently working on NOVEMBER confirmations which are now in month 8. They must clear about 5 months of confirmation backlogs To get any sense of normalcy. You won’t see touring confirmations until they are confident they can reduce this backlog. Believe me, I have been wanting to see the first Touring emails go out because it means that my car might actually be close to delivery.
• By limiting the number of orders going in the front end, the queue *should* get shorter as cars dribble out and they *should* be able to return to a 2-6 week delivery post VIN. As with confirmations they must either restrict VIN issuance or increase throughput. They appear to have reduced the number of new VINs issued during the month of June.. Throughput has not increased yet. Fewer VINs being issued should help clearing clear out April, May and June ones on the books. The next few weeks will tell if they can clear the backlog. A VIN issued today *should* be delivered by the end of July to meet their original 2-6 week timeline. Therefore, they need to clear out ALL April, May and June VINs in the next 4 weeks to catch up.
• If production problems and supply chain constraints, one should see many more VINs start to be issued, followed by an increase in confirmations evidenced by Touring confirmation emails being sent.

Bottom line, I do not think new VINs will take up to 13 weeks for delivery. Lucid got cocky and overconfident in their production capabilities, confirmed too many orders and issued too many VINs for the factory to handle. They did not communicate anything to those customers and essentially shot themselves in the foot. Now they are paying the price with unhappy customers and QC problems by moving too fast. By right sizing the input they will get the timelines back to normal. However, that does not give them 12-14k vehicles this year. Time will tell.

 

[Tesla2.0]

I just counted, I got it real lucky then. VIN assignment to deliver to me was merely 3 weeks. Perhaps I got a canceled order???

 

[Sandvinsd]

I just counted, I got it real lucky then. VIN assignment to deliver to me was merely 3 weeks. Perhaps I got a canceled order???

Perhaps. That would make sense as the timeline is in record speed.

 

[Tesla2.0]

Perhaps. That would make sense as the timeline is in record speed.

I was always assuming I ordered the most common specs, red/Tahoe/21 to get an earlier assembly. DA told me it should be 4-6 weeks to go thru QA and transport; however to my surprise, 3 weeks later, they told me it is already here, the day after they announced Lucid started delivery GT and introducing GTP. I believe everything is all based on variance. Lucid has no intent to make bad cars, probably supply chain side issues they have to scramble some replacement parts quickly after they run out certain limited parts.

I was griping 6.5 months from reservation to delivery was too long. My buddy put me in perspective as his ICE Range Rover took 12 months.

 

[Sandvinsd]

I was griping 6.5 months from reservation to delivery was too long. My buddy put me in perspective as his ICE Range Rover took 12 months.

WOW! Only 6.5 months from reservation to delivery? Who do you know at Lucid? That is damn quick! I’m at 15 months and counting. Even since confirmation, I’m at 8 months.

Also, red did help since they already had red frames painted from Dream production.

 

[pam4_AGT]

WOW! Only 6.5 months from reservation to delivery? Who do you know at Lucid? That is damn quick! I’m at 15 months and counting. Even since confirmation, I’m at 8 months.

Also, red did help since they already had red frames painted from Dream production.

@Sandvinsd, I made my reservation in late Nov-2021, confirmed Jan-5th and picked up my car on May 4th (that's just a little over 5 months and 2 weeks from reservation to delivery). Don't know if that was because of somebody cancelling but there are folks like me. Maybe I just got lucky.

 

[Mkatz]

WOW! Only 6.5 months from reservation to delivery? Who do you know at Lucid? That is damn quick! I’m at 15 months and counting. Even since confirmation, I’m at 8 months.

Also, red did help since they already had red frames painted from Dream production.

Agree, that is crazy quick. I'm almost 18 months since reservation and nearly 8 months from confirmation and still waiting as well... Would have considered changing exterior colors if I had known that it would be so long.

 

[joec]

Agree, that is crazy quick. I'm almost 18 months since reservation and nearly 8 months from confirmation and still waiting as well... Would have considered changing exterior colors if I had known that it would be so long.

Comparing from ordering dates won’t make a whole lot of sense, given many of you ordered well before any cars were being delivered. I would expect anyone ordering today to wait a lot less than anyone who ordered in 2020. Comparing time from confirmation date to VIN or delivery gives a better sense of how production speed is (or isn’t) improving, though. But there will always be these outliers when someone gets a canceled car. Have to throw those out of the data.

 

[hydbob]

Comparing from ordering dates won’t make a whole lot of sense, given many of you ordered well before any cars were being delivered. I would expect anyone ordering today to wait a lot less than anyone who ordered in 2020. Comparing time from confirmation date to VIN or delivery gives a better sense of how production speed is (or isn’t) improving, though. But there will always be these outliers when someone gets a canceled car. Have to throw those out of the data.

True, it's like me saying "stop whinging because it took them 38 months to deliver my order..."

 

[Mkatz]

True, it's like me saying "stop whinging because it took them 38 months to deliver my order...

Didn't mention reservation date for the purpose of "whining". I have been interested in Lucid and following the company for a long time. Maybe not as long as others, especially the DE owners. It has been an excessive amount of time from confirmation date of 11/21 though. Seems like the comments on this forum from certain members have been getting a bit defensive and personal recently. Not sure why, but think I might need to cut down on my addiction to reading the threads. Initially joined so I could learn more info about the car in preparation to delivery.

 

[Thehack]

I just really want to have mine in the garage by late August at latest. I am concerned about this new Luxury tax in Canada (it would add a substantial cost to the vehicle).
My initial design was saved Sept 2020. My reservation was placed March 2021. My order was confirmed May 4 2022. No VIN (the car I chose is a White GT 19" Santa Cruz)

 

[hydbob]

Didn't mention reservation date for the purpose of "whining". I have been interested in Lucid and following the company for a long time. Maybe not as long as others, especially the DE owners. It has been an excessive amount of time from confirmation date of 11/21 though. Seems like the comments on this forum from certain members have been getting a bit defensive and personal recently. Not sure why, but think I might need to cut down on my addiction to reading the threads. Initially joined so I could learn more info about the car in preparation to delivery.

Sorry, I was agreeing with @joec Sentiment about not using order dates as a reference, was meant to be a joke, poorly crafted!