Gravity Launch

My guess would be the latter. They will want to open up a preorder deposit list and focus on revealing the finalized look of the car's interior and exterior. Actual orders will be taken sometime next year. Trims revealed just before that, I would think.

Yeah I'm afraid this will be the case. The specs and prices for the various trim levels will be one of the deciding factors for us. I'm good with putting down a refundable deposit, but if it's out of our price range, or doesn't have the specs we want, I would like to move on and consider another 3-row EV.

It could be another long wait.
 
I havent been around for the Air before 2020, so how did that model's deposits/pricing/trim information work?
My guess is they will be a bit more organized with it this time around, since it's not their first rodeo. But I'm imagining, much like last time, there will be a flat rate (likely $1,000) to get your deposit down. And then when they announce trims, you'll pick the one you want, along with other options. And then depending on which trims get built first, they will work down the list for each trim in the order in which it was received.

I suspect the wait times will be shorter this time around between trims. So even if they do start with the expensive ones, if there's a Dream Edition, etc. it won't be as long for them to get to the "Pure" equivalent trim. I'm hoping less than a year after the start of production to all the trims being available.
 
My guess is they will be a bit more organized with it this time around, since it's not their first rodeo. But I'm imagining, much like last time, there will be a flat rate (likely $1,000) to get your deposit down. And then when they announce trims, you'll pick the one you want, along with other options. And then depending on which trims get built first, they will work down the list for each trim in the order in which it was received.

I suspect the wait times will be shorter this time around between trims. So even if they do start with the expensive ones, if there's a Dream Edition, etc. it won't be as long for them to get to the "Pure" equivalent trim. I'm hoping less than a year after the start of production to all the trims being available.
I think that Lucid will be producing all trims at the same time(they certainly have capacity for it) as some people get priority status, yet they may choose to order a pure. In addition, people have stated that if you use the 18 month lease with Gravity priority, you will receive your car in 18 months, plus or minus if it arrives early/late. For these reasons, I think they will all be produced at the same time.
 
Well thats a "bargain", I thought I heard somewhere it was 25500 before being decreased to 7500?
It upped to $7500 when I had to choose performance or range and confirm order 9/20/2021. Then took delivery on 12/10/21.
 
I think that Lucid will be producing all trims at the same time(they certainly have capacity for it) as some people get priority status, yet they may choose to order a pure. In addition, people have stated that if you use the 18 month lease with Gravity priority, you will receive your car in 18 months, plus or minus if it arrives early/late. For these reasons, I think they will all be produced at the same time.
That would require multiple lines running at once. Which is possible if they get the expanded facility going. But given how many more factory positions that would require, unless they get a boatload of preorders (I'm not suspecting they will) they will likely do maybe 2 lines at once, max.

Keep in mind, shipping cars to customers faster is all well and good for revenue, but it's not fun if you are trying to scale service. The first cars off the line will likely reveal issues that need to get resolved. So shipping out a ton all at once could lead to massive recalls, overstrained service center calendars, etc.

I'm thinking they will want to ramp, just like they did with Air. Just faster.
 
That would require multiple lines running at once. Which is possible if they get the expanded facility going. But given how many more factory positions that would require, unless they get a boatload of preorders (I'm not suspecting they will) they will likely do maybe 2 lines at once, max.

Keep in mind, shipping cars to customers faster is all well and good for revenue, but it's not fun if you are trying to scale service. The first cars off the line will likely reveal issues that need to get resolved. So shipping out a ton all at once could lead to massive recalls, overstrained service center calendars, etc.

I'm thinking they will want to ramp, just like they did with Air. Just faster.
If Lucid is planning on using AMP-1 and AMP-2 Gravity's for the US, I fully expect the ramp up to take less than 6 months, especially considering the AMP-1 expansion project. If we could get from the DE to "Pure" in 6 months, it would be great and realistically possible in my opinion.

Also, why do you not expect them to get a lot of preorders? To me, if Gravity can nail that drug dealer stance, the people who previously considered the R1S for family car purposes will now pick a gravity. In addition, the press of having the highest mile SUV surely must be great. Another good sign is that after the huge layoffs that affected people like Len, Lucid seems to be doing new hires now, which factored into my guess.

Service is an issue though. More new service centers have started popping up, but there are still not enough. Take your state for example, which I'd argue to be one of the biggest EV SUV markets.
 
If Lucid is planning on using AMP-1 and AMP-2 Gravity's for the US, I fully expect the ramp up to take less than 6 months, especially considering the AMP-1 expansion project. If we could get from the DE to "Pure" in 6 months, it would be great and realistically possible in my opinion.

Also, why do you not expect them to get a lot of preorders? To me, if Gravity can nail that drug dealer stance, the people who previously considered the R1S for family car purposes will now pick a gravity. In addition, the press of having the highest mile SUV surely must be great. Another good sign is that after the huge layoffs that affected people like Len, Lucid seems to be doing new hires now, which factored into my guess.

Service is an issue though. More new service centers have started popping up, but there are still not enough. Take your state for example, which I'd argue to be one of the biggest EV SUV markets.
I don't expect a ton of preorders because the market for $80k+ EV SUV isn't all that big. Especially in the current climate. It's bigger than the Air's market. Maybe even double or triple. But we're not talking in the hundreds of thousands here. More like 20-30k.

And that would still be triple what they've been able to produce in a year so far.

They may get a few more preorders than that. They had what, 25k Air preorders at one point? And they've converted how many into actual sales? The world has changed significantly in the past few years.

Refundable deposits are not a very good indicator of reality. They are useful maybe for Wall Street.

But even building 20k Gravity in six months would put a massive strain on the service department. They are no where near being ready for that big an influx of customers.
 
Well thats a "bargain", I thought I heard somewhere it was 25500 before being decreased to 7500?
When I reserved in December 2019, I paid $5k and was offered a first edition if I upped the deposit to $25k. Shortly thereafter, they dropped the deposit to $1k (not sure about the DE deposit).
 
I don't expect a ton of preorders because the market for $80k+ EV SUV isn't all that big. Especially in the current climate. It's bigger than the Air's market. Maybe even double or triple. But we're not talking in the hundreds of thousands here. More like 20-30k.

And that would still be triple what they've been able to produce in a year so far.

They may get a few more preorders than that. They had what, 25k Air preorders at one point? And they've converted how many into actual sales? The world has changed significantly in the past few years.

Refundable deposits are not a very good indicator of reality. They are useful maybe for Wall Street.

But even building 20k Gravity in six months would put a massive strain on the service department. They are no where near being ready for that big an influx of customers.
To me, refundable deposits are an interest free loan. It is better if we look at it that way, in my opinion. A lot of people will reserve Gravity, which I think there is no doubt about. There is a reasonable doubt on whether or not all those people will actually buy a Gravity, but the effect of the refundable deposit would be used: perhaps for more employment in my thoughts. If we assume 80k preorders(R1S level, highly optimistic) and an average deposit of 700, then lucid would be getting 56 million. This could be used for more hires, and then the money coming from people who buy the high end dream editions should keep the new employees in the company and not getting laid off.

As an offside, I hope that Air Sapphire development paved the way for more Gravity Sapphire development instead of having to start from scratch with that model. IMO, putting all that extraordinary work into each car is not sustainable.

And yes, they are absolutely not a good statistic for predicting how many cars will be sold. As an example, there are 90k reservations for an 90k Hummer EV. There is simply no way they will sell this much. I also agree that building that much Gravities in 6 months would put a big strain on service, which I predict Lucid will prepare for between now and 2025.
 
When I reserved in December 2019, I paid $5k and was offered a first edition if I upped the deposit to $25k. Shortly thereafter, they dropped the deposit to $1k (not sure about the DE deposit).
Was a "First edition" the original name for a DE? Was the 5000 for your GT that you currently have, or for another trim?
 
I doubt it is only the CPU. It would be great if the CPUs in cars where like head units and you could just swap in a new one, but to date that is not how the industry works. I would be happy to be wrong on this, I would place order to upgrade my DE as soon as orders opened.
Friendly wager? :)

It upped to $7500 when I had to choose performance or range and confirm order 9/20/2021. Then took delivery on 12/10/21.
Reserved a GT 9/6/21 for $1000 refundable, got my DE invite 10/5/21 and upgraded, which made that $1000 non refundable but didn’t cost me anything extra.

Test drive 11/29/21, delivery 1/19/22.
 
I don't expect a ton of preorders because the market for $80k+ EV SUV isn't all that big. Especially in the current climate. It's bigger than the Air's market. Maybe even double or triple. But we're not talking in the hundreds of thousands here. More like 20-30k.

And that would still be triple what they've been able to produce in a year so far.

They may get a few more preorders than that. They had what, 25k Air preorders at one point? And they've converted how many into actual sales? The world has changed significantly in the past few years.

Refundable deposits are not a very good indicator of reality. They are useful maybe for Wall Street.

But even building 20k Gravity in six months would put a massive strain on the service department. They are no where near being ready for that big an influx of customers.
Since Tesla will only sell less than 24,000 Model X in 2023 I would think Lucid would be Lucky to sell 10,000 units in 2025. ESP if Gravity is an average of $100,000. A Base Model X is only $73,000 now.
 
Not to turn this into an off topic thread, but are you referring to the ID8 vs 8.5?
BTW, you had once mentioned you didn't care for the blue trim on the i4 and I agree. I got mine with the blue trim delete option that's available. :)
 
Unfortunately the tax credit is now income-tied.
Is this also true for leases?

I would assume that most, if not all people on this forum do not qualify for the credit due to this requirement.(and also the fact that the air is a sedan)
 
Back
Top