Lucid Air Production Delay

[Lucken]

It does sound encouraging and I agree, based on your phone call, something does sound imminent.

 

[hmp10]

Lordy, I hope we're right.

 

[Lucken]

That "very soon" comment caused me to call Lucid sales to see if there was any update. While they stayed coy about specifcs, I was told that it wouldn't be long before I was contacted about final order configuration. I could get nothing beyond that, however.

I got the vibe that something is imminent, but it could be just my hope talking to my ears.

The thought occurred to me that I would hope you would be offered a test drive before fully committing.

 

[Adnillien]

I agree. I would find it very difficult to fully commit before having a test drive.

 

[hmp10]

. . . I would hope you would be offered a test drive before fully committing.

In an interview, someone from Lucid (I don't remember who) mentioned that cars were being built for press test drives and to go to studios for customer test drives. I'm pretty sure that Grand Touring and later edition customers will be able to test drive a vehicle before firming up an order. However, I have serious doubts that Dream Edition customers will have the opportunity. So far, all the press ride-alongs have been done in Grand Touring versions.

This raises an interesting question about whether the press will be able to review the most powerful offering upon which so much Lucid advertising has been built . . . at least before some customer turns his or her car over to a journalist.

 

[Lucken]

It will be interesting to see how many Lucid Dream Edition reservation holders actually go through with their orders if they haven't had the opportunity for a test drive. It will be a test of the faith they have in Lucid & Rawlinson.

 

[hmp10]

It will be a test of the faith they have in Lucid & Rawlinson.

Or just a test of how willing they are to be guinea pigs. I don't have any faith in most of Elon Musk's claims, but we're taking delivery next week on a Model S Plaid that we have not been able to drive or even sit in. Until yet another round of production delays at Rivian, I was also going to take delivery on an R1S without even having seen it in the flesh.

I turn 70 next month, and my desire to sample as much high-performance or novel EV fare as I can while I can has overwhelmed any sense of caution.

 

[Lucken]

I think my biggest concern with the Plaid would be that steering wheel. It's hard to imagine why Musk refused to offer a conventional steering wheel as an option.

 

[hmp10]

That's our biggest concern, too. We've watched a slew of video reviews, some focusing mainly on the yoke, and very few reviewers really like it. Some outright hate it, and most are in the maybe-I'll-get-used-to-it-after-a-while-if-I-really-keep-trying camp.

It's one of the reasons that, even if we otherwise love the Plaid after we get it, I'm still sticking with the Lucid, which is going to be my daily driver -- and our road trip car due to its significantly greater range.

We're also keeping the Honda Odyssey minivan for now. There's really nothing close to it for transporting four or more elderly adults in comfort. If the Lucid Gravity matches it in interior room, the Gravity might become the Honda replacement in a couple of years instead of the Rivian R1S I still have on order that keeps getting delayed.

 

[hmp10]

On a July 16 investor call Peter Rawlinson said Lucid was "in the midst" of EPA range testing. This suggests the car began testing about a month ago. How long does this take? When will we see official EPA numbers?

On that same call he said that Lucid was in the "late stages" of crash testing. Same question. When will we see the results?

 

[Lucken]

On that same call he said that Lucid was in the "late stages" of crash testing. Same question. When will we see the results?

Maybe it’s a very low speed crash.

 

[hmp10]

I just hope there's no reason they would want to delay publishing results.

 

[Lucken]

Here’s a new story on the Model S delay issue. Shame on Tesla if this is true:

Tesla apologizes for new Model S delays, but some worrying things are going on

Tesla has apologized to Model S buyers who are experiencing significant delays without communication. However, they are short on explanation,...

flip.it

 

[hmp10]

Yep, a friend sent me this article yesterday.

This is my problem with Tesla. They make a very good product, but their business practices are unethical as hell, and Musk has too many traits of an egocentric sociopath. This is just one of many sleazy things Tesla has gotten up to in manipulating sales and revenue numbers.

This is the reason I got so irritated when Peter Rawlinson held off on announcing the Lucid production delay until just after the SPAC merger was announced. It left me with an uneasy feeling that some of Musk might have rubbed off on him.

I wonder how long it will be before an EV buyer can find a new car in stock on which he can take immediate delivery, as one generally can with ICE cars these days. These months- or years-long waits to get a new EV are really getting tedious and are going to be a hindrance to EV adoption once we move past the die-hard EV enthusiasts who are willing to put up with this. I have two friends who lease their cars and wanted their next lease to be an EV. They both fell back onto an ICE lease when they could not get a reliable delivery date to coordinate even remotely with their lease termination dates.

 

[hmp10]

There's a lot of internet buzz about Lucid's recent posting of four jobs related to vehicle delivery. Most commentators take this as a sign that deliveries are imminent.

Actually, I'm surprised to see Lucid only now posting the four jobs related to vehicle delivery. First, it usually take several weeks from posting a job to go through resume screening, candidate interviews, offer acceptance, and getting someone into the position, especially if they are not an internal or local hire. Second, I have read the full job descriptions, and some of them involve setting up complex logistics systems and contract carrier relationships that take some time to hash out. I can only reach one of three possible conclusions from this:

1. Internal transferees have already been doing this work, and these postings are just an after-the-fact attempt to make the moves official.

2. These jobs are about setting up the delivery systems that will handle factory output once the Grand Touring and later models get into production, and the limited Dream Edition run will be handled on a more one-off basis.

3. The Dream Edition is not starting delivery any time soon.

 

[hmp10]

Is it just me, or does the publicity space seem curiously devoid of any mentions of Lucid recently, other than endless chatter about the stock price?

It's been over a month since Airs were subjected to EPA range tests and to crash tests, but there's been a complete communications blackout about results. Lucid teased a couple of months ago that further announcements were coming about features and technology of the car, followed only by radio silence. Written and video reviews of ride-alongs or employee test drives have come to a dead stop. In short, there's almost no public discourse at this point about the car itself.

Is this an intentional silence by Lucid Motors -- perhaps an engineered calm before delivery cars burst onto the scene -- or have the production delays simply diverted attention to other cars about which more new information is emerging?

 

[Lucken]

Either way I find it a bit concerning.

 

[hmp10]

I got this email this morning from Lucid:

"It's nearly time to confirm your order. We'll have updated configuration and performance details for the Dream Edition to share soon, and over the next few weeks a member of our team will reach out to personally guide you through the order process."

A poster on Reddit who reserved in March 2017 says he has already gotten a call from his sales rep but was given no specific time frame for delivery. In saying Dream Edition reservation holders will be contacted "over the next few weeks" I take it that deliveries (at least for reservation holders in my time frame of September 2018) will be in the fourth quarter rather than the third quarter, as we're already at mid August.

I'm particularly interested in what was meant by the phrase "updated configuration and performance details." Derek Jenkins mentioned some weeks ago that they were still "tweaking" performance numbers, and we're still waiting, of course, for official EPA range ratings and crash test results.

But what is meant by "updated configuration details"? Right now there are only two configurable options for the Dream Edition: exterior color and wheel choice. Is Lucid going to introduce more options for the Dream Edition? Will (oh, how I pray for this one) the exterior color choices widen?

 

[Lucken]

IMO, more importantly than that, you are to confirm an order for a car at this price point that you haven't test driven, seen in the color of your choice other than a color chip or even sat in with its final configuration.

We all have different risk tolerances, but I for one won't do this.

 

[hmp10]

Understandable. I am willing to take more risk, though. Until their most recent production delay, I was going to take a Rivian R1S without having even laid eyes on one in the flesh. And our new Tesla Model S Plaid is at the local Service Center waiting for delivery to us in the next few days. We weren't able to see, open, or sit in one at the time we placed the order. It came off the truck last Saturday, and we drove up to look at it. The salesperson refused even to unlock it so that we could so much as look at the interior without having to peer through tinted glass. Back in 2007 I ordered an Audi R8 before they entered production and flew to Vermont (to the only dealer who had an available allocation) in midwinter to pick it up. Delivery was the first time I saw an actual R8.

Fortunately for the automakers, there still seem to be enough impatient early adopters who will take cars on these terms. But once their numbers are finally exhausted, the EV manufacturers who expect people to waits months and years for cars they will purchase sight unseen are going to hit a brick wall.