Lucid Air Production Delay

[St Bernard]

It's interesting how different perspectives can be. Our overall impression was that the interior design looked to be almost 'toyish'. We also found it a bit on the noisy side.

I seem to recall reading that they're having trouble attaining the sales volume they thought they'd have.

I think Lucid is also having a sales problem. While they claim they have orders for 10,000 Cars this may be high. Here are the problems I see:
1. Certainly not the most important but interest in a Forum is an indication of overall interest in a Car. RIVIAN and the Porsche Taycan have well over 3,000 members. Lucid cannot break 160 members. A few members have their own private Chat Room. This is not a knock on them but just a criticism of the Forum.
2. The production delays have certainly caused some people to cancel their orders or lose interest.
3. The Stock price is an indication of the health of the company. I realize today was an unusual trading day for Lucid but the price could not hold $19.
4. The Design for some people is now 5 years old. The Luxury end of the business is in serious decline. There is no growth in large luxury Sedans.
Lucid needs to deliver 200 cars by the end of the year. No one really knows why they keep getting delayed. For most Consumer there is no need for a Car that can do 500 miles. It’s nice to talk about it but how many times do any of us drive in a year non stop 500 miles. I may end up getting my Lucid but right now I’m not sure.

 

[hmp10]

I agree all or in part with these points. But there are some additional things I would point out.

The design of the Model S is 9 years old, and deliveries on new orders are now five months out.

I hold over 13,000 LCID shares and certainly don't like what happened today, although I knew this was coming with the expiration of the lockup. However, I bought with a 5-year horizon, and I'm encouraged by the "Motor Trend" reception of the car. It will be interesting to find out how many of the unlocked shares traded today as opposed to standard shares that were trading on anxiety about lockup trades.

For me, 450-500 miles of range is just a reference point, not a representation of the actual mileage I'll get by any stretch. For starters, in order to protect the battery pack, I have very seldom charged my old or new Tesla beyond 80%, going only to 90% if I'm about to start a trip immediately. Range is a non-issue for me in local driving, as I never use more than about 30% of the car's battery capacity even on the longest days of errand running when I return home to plug in in the garage.

A road trip becomes another matter. Even if I'm driving over to Miami and back, I'd rather stop at a Supercharger than tax the battery's longevity with a 100% charge and have to worry about hypermiling. And I've never planned to drive it below about 10% of charge, as letting charge get that low would leave me exposed to unexpected delays en route. Thus I assume at most 80% of the battery's nominal range on road trips. Add to that the fact that I typically drive around 80 mph on an interstate (78 mph is the U.S. average), and in my Tesla at that speed, I burned through about 10 miles of indicated range for every 6 miles of actual highway travel. (For this reason, I never took the Tesla on a road trip longer than crossing Florida from Naples to Miami. For longer road trips, we always reverted to one of our ICE cars.)

For the Lucid's nominal 450 miles of range on a Dream "P", here's what I would assume on a road trip typical for me:

- a 90% charge starts me with 405 miles of range

- leaving a 10% contingency margin at the low end reduces that to 360 miles of range

- driving at 80 mph and assuming that Lucid outperforms the Tesla in giving me 8 miles of actual travel for every 10 miles of indicated range use at that speed, yields 288 miles of real-world range between charges on a highway trip.

I would not want to drive much longer than that between rest stops, anyway. But I would like to get at least that much road covered before being forced to stop for a recharge. Thus, for an EV to be really desirable for me to use on a long road trip instead of one of my ICE vehicles, something upwards of 450 miles of EPA range is pretty much a minimum requirement.

 

[hmp10]

By the way, the above calculation assumes temperate weather. Cold weather will reduce the range further, even more so since Lucid (rather oddly) cancelled plans for a heat pump and will presumably warm the cabin with resistance heating. It's not an issue for me, though, as my cold weather road tripping days are over. I've done the summer-to-winter tire switch enough in my life never to want to do it again.

 

[Adnillien]

While they claim they have orders for 10,000 Cars this may be high.

As of the completion of the merger with CCIV, Lucid is claiming 11,000 reservations implying that they are adding 1000 per month. I don't know if that trend will continue as more design studios open.

 

[Lucken]

By the way, the above calculation assumes temperate weather. Cold weather will reduce the range further, even more so since Lucid (rather oddly) cancelled plans for a heat pump and will presumably warm the cabin with resistance heating. It's not an issue for me, though, as my cold weather road tripping days are over. I've done the summer-to-winter tire switch enough in my life never to want to do it again.

Keep in mind that very hot weather will also cut into range. Most of what you read puts the heavy emphasis on cold weather, and they should, but very hot weather is overlooked too often.

 

[hmp10]

Another note on EPA range:

We just completed a 78-mile mostly-interstate run with the Tesla Model S Plaid. There was a stretch of heavy rain that slowed all traffic below 70 for several miles, but we ran most of the trip around 80 mph with a small side trip of about 4 miles at around 25 mph.

Based on the miles driven against the percentage drawdown of the battery pack, we would have gotten about 243 miles out of a full charge as opposed to the EPA range rating of 348 miles -- i. e., 70% of rated range.

. . . and still no updates on the main Lucid webpages or order configurator to reflect the bifurcation of the Dream into "R" and "P" versions. I wonder if Lucid is holding off at this point until they get confirmed EPA ratings so that they don't have to risk a second alteration?

 

[Lucken]

Another note on EPA range:

We just completed a 78-mile mostly-interstate run with the Tesla Model S Plaid. There was a stretch of heavy rain that slowed all traffic below 70 for several miles, but we ran most of the trip around 80 mph with a small side trip of about 4 miles at around 25 mph.

Based on the miles driven against the percentage drawdown of the battery pack, we would have gotten about 243 miles out of a full charge as opposed to the EPA range rating of 348 miles -- i. e., 70% of rated range.

. . . and still no updates on the main Lucid webpages or order configurator to reflect the bifurcation of the Dream into "R" and "P" versions. I wonder if Lucid is holding off at this point until they get confirmed EPA ratings so that they don't have to risk a second alteration?

Wow, that’s not great range. That’s not much more than I get with my e-Tron. I will say that as meager as the e-Tron’s range is, I do generally get the full EPA rating and then some. Still not great but at least no surprises.

 

[hmp10]

We spent a good part of last Saturday doing some less-than-scientific range testing of the Tesla in different driving situations. Alligator Alley is a flat, straight, relatively lightly-traveled stretch of interstate through the Florida Everglades. On a 50-mile stretch with the cruise control set at 80, with mid-80's temperature, light intermittent rain, and the A/C and stereo running, we used mile markers and the car's battery charge indicator to gauge range. In those conditions, the car was getting about 70% of its EPA range rating. When we introduced some town driving into the mix with speeds between 50-60 mph and occasional traffic light stops, we nudged just over 75% of EPA range. This confirmed our earlier estimate of 70% of rated range in highway driving, and I'm now comfortable that is the figure to use for trip planning.

Given the fact that our 2015 Model S P90D was EPA-rated for 270 miles vs. the 348 miles for the Plaid and that the 2015 Tesla only attained about 60% of its rated range on Alligator Alley, the Plaid is a more realistic long-range tourer than the earlier car.

 

[Adnillien]

This is very interesting and useful. It is also more realistic for how most people drive. I am curios how the Lucid will compare. Tesla is claiming a coefficient of drag of 0.208, slightly lower than Lucid's claim of 0.21. Both cars are very similar in that sense. Maybe even identical given Elon's propensity to exaggerate.

I believe that the Lieberman drive from Beverly Hills to San Francisco was done at about 67MPH instead of 80. I wonder what Lucid's range will be at a higher speed?

 

[Lucken]

It's interesting how so many BEVs don't live up to their EPA estimates, with some significantly lagging these numbers. Yet Porsche and Audi BEVs, including the e-Tron GT, often meet or beat their EPA estimates. It really makes you wonder about the 'science' that goes into these estimates. I believe the VW ID4 also often meets or beats the EPA estimate. The one commonality I see is that these are all German cars. Perhaps it's just a coincidence...or not.

 

[hmp10]

Tesla is claiming a coefficient of drag of 0.208, slightly lower than Lucid's claim of 0.21. Both cars are very similar in that sense. Maybe even identical given Elon's propensity to exaggerate.

There are no standardized procedures for testing drag coefficients. I read somewhere that Lucid tested its Cd with the wheels stationary, which is the most common method, but that Tesla captured its number with the wheels at speed, which reduces drag. If this is true, that would be typical for how Tesla does things to stay atop the numbers game.

The Lucid is a bit lower than the Tesla, so even if the drag coefficient of the Tesla really is a gnat's whisker lower than the Air, the actual drag when surface area is factored in might still be lower for the Air. The Tesla has an air suspension which lowers the car at speed, while the Air's ride height is not adjustable due to the coil spring suspension. I think it's a safe bet that Tesla tested its car in the lowest suspension setting possible.

 

[hmp10]

Yet Porsche and Audi BEVs, including the e-Tron GT, often meet or beat their EPA estimates. It really makes you wonder about the 'science' that goes into these estimates.

The EPA tests only a minority of vehicles themselves. For the larger part, they just review the data and procedures submitted by the manufacturer. Within those procedures there is a lot of latitude. For instance, Porsche chooses to do its tests with the lowest-profile and widest (and therefore least aerodynamic) tires they offer on a given model. Tesla and Lucid, on the other hand, test their cars with the narrowest and most aerodynamic wheel/tire combos on the order menu. I don't know about the VW, but the Taycan and, I believe, the Audi eTron GT use a two-speed transmission that helps with highway range. I think it's interesting that the Motor Trend review reported only the range Jonny Lieberman and Rawlinson attained on their drives to San Francisco on the 19" wheels -- and that the highest speed Lieberman mentioned was 67 mph, a speed at which you'd get rear-ended on Florida interstates. No one said a world about the range attained the day before when running the Angeles Crest Highway on the 21" wheels.

Another big factor is that Porsche and most EV makers use a 0.7 reduction factor in translating dynamometer range to road range, while Tesla is unique in using a 0.75 factor. This is probably one of the biggest contributors to its perennially falling the furtherest short of its EPA range ratings in real world driving tests by Edmunds, Motor Trend, and other reputable testing publications.

Porsche's and Audi's approach seems to be to advertise a range that almost any driver will get in real-world driving, while Tesla and Lucid seem to favor approaches that yield EPA numbers you will only get while rubbing your head with one hand and hopping on one leg on a clear, warm day with the A/C turned off. I just hope Lucid didn't go as far in this direction as Tesla does. At least Lucid used the 0.7 reduction factor to derive the 517 miles of range from the FEV testing. All other things being equal, that alone should help Lucid get closer to its EPA range than Tesla.

 

[Lucken]

Speaking of delays, the opening of the L.I. Studio has now been pushed back from the 4th quarter of this year to the first quarter of 2022.

The beat goes on. I’m not surprised, I expected it, but it’s still disappointing. I was hoping for a test drive on L.I. A test drive in Manhattan is far from ideal.

 

[hmp10]

Any reason given for the delay?

 

[Lucken]

None. Just a 'matter of fact' delay. I'm sure if pushed, the word 'covid' would surface somewhere. I think if I'm late putting out the garbage, I'll plead 'covid' as the rationale.

 

[hmp10]

We had to pick someone up at the Miami airport last Friday, so we used it as an opportunity to make our third visit to the Lucid Design Studio there. Each time we go I develop a new impression about some aspect of the car. This was the first time the Studio was empty except for the sales staff, so I had plenty of time to try out all the seating positions and take my time absorbing the experience without worrying about depriving someone else of their chance.

The first two times we went, I drove or rode in the front seat of our 2015 Tesla Model S. When I tried out the Lucid backseat (with the larger battery pack) on each trip, the way my knees were jacked up was very noticeable and detracted from the fact of just how much front-to-rear legroom there was. On this third trip I rode over in the second-row seat of our roomy Honda Odyssey minivan (as I was the shortest of the passengers on the trip). This time I paid particular attention to my seating position in the Honda, and it struck me just how jacked up my knees were in it -- something that had never really registered with me before. With that impression fresh in my mind, I got into the backseat of the Lucid at the Design Studio. This time the rear seat felt roomier and more comfortable than it ever had before, as I realized my knees were no more jacked up than in the Honda. (The Honda, however, did give me room to park my toes under the front seat.) This doesn't mean that the rear seating with the smaller battery pack that I tried out at the West Palm Beach Studio was not more comfortable (it was), but I left Miami more at peace with the rear seat of the Dream Edition. Except for the high floorboard, it really is an astonishingly roomy rear seat for a car of those exterior dimensions.

However, I gave my head a good whack when I first got into the rear seat in the showroom, as I had forgotten just how low those massive roof rails are. And I really had to contort to avoid them in getting out. Once inside, though, the space and headroom are first class.

Now that I can compare the Lucid interior to the redesigned interior of the Model S Plaid we got three weeks ago, I am even more impressed with the Lucid interior. The new Model S is considerably improved in comfort, amenities, and materials . . . but the Lucid simply outclasses it.

 

[Lucken]

These were pretty much my observations as well. The room in the rear is nothing less than astonishing for a car with these exterior dimensions.

With that said, the next time I’m at a Studio, I’d like to observe someone that’s 6’ tall entering & exiting the car.

 

[Lucken]

This article highlights the impact of the chip shortage. Who knows, among other things we do know, how much of a contributing factor this is in Lucid’s delay?

One tiny chip is choking up America's largest automotive factories

A global shortage of semiconductor chips has halted the US auto industry.

flip.it

 

[hmp10]

According to a government briefing paper, an EV with an ADAS system can use up to 3,500 semiconductors:

https://www.usitc.gov/publications/332/executive_briefings/ebot_amanda_lawrence_john_verwey_the_automotive_semiconductor_market_pdf.pdf

"E for Electric" did an interesting video a couple of weeks ago that claimed that automotive chips use an earlier generation of technology than the chips that go into cell phones, personal computers, and other consumer electronics, and the manufacturers are giving first priority to supplying those products with chips. (The video also said that modern cars can use up to 8,000 chips, and other articles have said they can use up to 100 chips. There is apparently either little consistency in the definition of what a chip is or a lot of hooey passing as journalistic research . . . or both.)

Peter Rawlinson has said specifically that Lucid secured the chip supply for its 2021 production before the chip shortage hit. The interview in which he said this was after Lucid announced that it was promising only the 577 Dream Editions by year end. This would suggest that the Dream Edition has been delayed for other reasons but that later models of the Air might be delayed due to chip shortages -- on top of continuing supplier problems with other components that Rawlinson mentions from time to time.

 

[SDHacker]

Cars will never be on current generation "chips" due to the stringent testing protocols required for use in what is essentially a 2 ton deadly weapon. One of my friends is an engineer for a technology company that supplies chips for phones, gaming systems, cars, and he said once auto makers cancelled orders due to the pandemic, they were warned the lead time would be 12 months for fulfilling orders due to demand from other uses. Another "problem" in setting priorities for chip manufacturers is that auto companies set monthly targets for chip needs. So chip providers know how many to produce for consumer electronics each month while auto manufacturers want suppliers to comply to their "just-in-time" inventory system. So month to month, the chip provider doesn't know how many auto chips to produce. Each month becomes a special or custom order - have to set up the machines with new die and setups for the older gen chips and each month, the number needed changes.

Agree there is no consistency with defining or labeling what a chip is. Don't know if it's the journalists not wanting to overwhelm the public with specifics or engineers not wanting to confuse their PR people with details. Each of those numbers could be correct depending on whether they are talking about the number of processors/CPUs or all the different types of semiconductors that go into a car. When Tesla wants to charge $10k for hardware to be FSD ready, that's a lot of high powered processing chips. It will be interesting to see how much Lucid charges for Touring trim to be L3 ready.