2023 Q4 Deliveries

[ac.bill]

If the stock hits 3.5, I'm loading up to dollar average this pig down. There can't be more bad news baked in moving forward, are there???

The whole auto industry is in a slump. Financing is expensive and harder to qualify for. Combine that with industrywide declines in trade-in values and financing will be more difficult and costly for the buyer making an aspirational purchase of a Pure (stretching their budget). Many news outlets became a little too enthusiastic about the likelihood of the FED cutting interest rates quickly. That seems unlikely to happen soon, but it is one of several things that need to turn around for the auto market to improve.
I do hold some LCID but try not to look at the price. It may fall further and is still high risk. If the mid-size chassis vehicles are a hit we could do well, but won't really know for another 5-6 years. At least that's my hope. We are almost certain to see at least two more rounds of funding and dilution. I expect more than that.

 

[NoseyReporter]

The whole auto industry is in a slump. Financing is expensive and harder to qualify for. Combine that with industrywide declines in trade-in values and financing will be more difficult and costly for the buyer making an aspirational purchase of a Pure (stretching their budget). Many news outlets became a little too enthusiastic about the likelihood of the FED cutting interest rates quickly. That seems unlikely to happen soon, but it is one of several things that need to turn around for the auto market to improve.
I do hold some LCID but try not to look at the price. It may fall further and is still high risk. If the mid-size chassis vehicles are a hit we could do well, but won't really know for another 5-6 years. At least that's my hope. We are almost certain to see at least two more rounds of funding and dilution. I expect more than that.

Dilution is the big one. It's coming. Probably late 2024.

 

[ac.bill]

Dilution is the big one. It's coming. Probably late 2024.

Agree, but dilution is inevitable. Lucid is a startup in a low margin capital intensive industry. A typical automotive factory might cost $5 Billion. Lucid's first one is still being finished. The second one in Saudi doesn't have any fabrication capacity yet. The third one, for mid-size vehicles, reportedly has the land locked in but no construction yet. Rawlinson's rough timeline for mid-size vehicle production start ('27-'28?) indicates construction is likely to start sometime this year.

 

[LucidfanAZ]

Agree, but dilution is inevitable. Lucid is a startup in a low margin capital intensive industry. A typical automotive factory might cost $5 Billion. Lucid's first one is still being finished. The second one in Saudi doesn't have any fabrication capacity yet. The third one, for mid-size vehicles, reportedly has the land locked in but no construction yet. Rawlinson's rough timeline for mid-size vehicle production start ('27-'28?) indicates construction is likely to start sometime this year.

In a recent interview, Peter mentioned the Saudi 2nd phase plant was "well underway" as well as the development of their mid-size platform. I think its closer to '26 than '28. May hear more details on their next earnings call.

 

[AZLucidGuy]

If the stock hits 3.5, I'm loading up to dollar average this pig down. There can't be more bad news baked in moving forward, are there???

I bought 1,000 more shares at $3.49 today.

 

[NoseyReporter]

I bought 1,000 more shares at $3.49 today.

A few hundred more over here. Total is over 23k shares now.

 

[AZLucidGuy]

A few hundred more over here. Total is over 23k shares now.

My thought is that if Lucid (current cap $7.8B) grows to be 1/10th of Tesla (current cap $744B) in five years that's a 10x gain for Lucid based upon today's closing price for $LCID and $TSLA. That would be a LCID stock price of about $34 in 5 years. But it's speculation. Who knows. But I do believe that Lucid can achieve a market cap 90% less than Tesla as a realistic goal that would yield this return from the very low price of Lucid stock today. Dilution is a risk but I am not that worried.

 

[gaskiller]

My thought is that if Lucid (current cap $7.8B) grows to be 1/10th of Tesla (current cap $744B) in five years that's a 10x gain for Lucid based upon today's closing price for $LCID and $TSLA. That would be a LCID stock price of about $34 in 5 years. But it's speculation. Who knows. But I do believe that Lucid can achieve a market cap 90% less than Tesla as a realistic goal that would yield this return from the very low price of Lucid stock today. Dilution is a risk but I am not that worried.

Dilution will be early 2025, they cut a lot of expenses by reducing production to stay in line with demand. Or, Saudi may just lend a few billion interest free.

 

[no gas]

I bought some as well...it will be back above $4 pretty soon.

 

[NoseyReporter]

We know there's at least 700 cars that should be added to the manufacturing count for Jeddah. How many of those get delivered is definitely a big ?.

Run rate for the US deliveries is about 1400 per quarter. At that rate we should expect 5600 deliveries for the year. I think a nice surprise would be anything over 6000.

On the assembly front, they are producing 2000 per quarter, so US based production number should be around 8000. Add the 700 in Jeddah and we are 1300 shy of the 10,000 target.

Given these numbers are public knowledge, I don't think I'm unrealistic about about 5600 delivered and 8700 produce for 2023. This SHOULD be hit, and a miss on either of these would be VERY disappointing, especially when considering Sherry's statement about the Q4 ramp.

I'd love to see them deliver every car they produced in 2023, 8700 give or take however that's probably highly unlikely. So I'll just generously guess they deliver 350 of the 700 assembled in Jeddah, and then sprinkle in a 20% uptick in the quarterly deliver rate (~1400) and pull a nice 6250 out of my ass.

Final numbers:

8428 produced
6001 delivered

 

[Babyrocko1908]

It’s obviously anecdotal, but I agree it sure feels like there are a lot of new owners around here lately.

I would hesitate to assume it was a “great” quarter. Great for Lucid, maybe. Better than Q3 perhaps. But I don’t want to get my hopes up.

The incentives seem to be doing some good. That’s for sure. But I don’t expect sales to grow much at least until Gravity arrives.

Same regarding Gravity. This is why I continue to load up at these bargain bin prices. Still averaging down.

 

[no gas]

Final numbers:

8428 produced
6001 delivered

1734 delivered for Q4, not bad, not terrific.

But on the right track. I suspect Saudi deliveries will pick up next year. Should be reaching 2000+ for the 1st quarter easily. 10k deliveries for 2024.

 

[NoseyReporter]

Slowly, things will start to pick up. It is an expensive car, and people are still learning about the brand.

 

[xponents]

Same regarding Gravity. This is why I continue to load up at these bargain bin prices. Still averaging down.

Yes, from now there is no bad news I can foresee. Gravity has had a great reception, more people are buying Airs(and will continue to as gravity will make the brand more known), and work on the midsize car is underway! Its all up from here...

 

[hydbob]

https://ir.lucidmotors.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lucid-announces-q4-production-deliveries-sets-date-fourth

 

[SaratogaLefty]

Stock is in freefall!! WTF??

 

[EXOTIC2]

Wall Street still doesn’t like the numbers/direction as it’s sitting now at an all-time low $3.20. ( down again today) I will add 10 K shares once at $3 which unfortunately that looks to be the direction it’s going at the moment. I’m just averaging down at this point.

 

[xponents]

Stock is in freefall!! WTF??

How?? Why?

 

[EXOTIC2]

How?? Why?

You can never really figure WS out. Tesla released their numbers and BEAT deliveries for Q4 ( record year deliveries) more than analysts predicted yet the stock is down over 12% since Jan 1.
The mainstream media loves to roast EV’S in their reporting.
They have to protect the legacy auto makers.

 

[Buffalo Bob]

I'm a shareholder, but I think/fear that short sellers are now pretty much in control of the LCID stock price, and the narrative, and that they will remain in control until there is some definitive change to the status quo. The Q4 units cracked the low end of the range that I hoped for, but I think it won't be the catalyst they need, and while the word is getting out about how great the cars are, fears about the future is a powerful deterrent to making the purchase decision. Another significant partnership, or some definitive sign of PIF support, would help.