2023 Q4 Deliveries

[Tim-in-CA]

Yep ... I just purchased some more ... will take my average price down to $14. Will have a long way to go before I break even. Just need the PIF to keep them afloat for the next 5+ years I suppose.

 

[no gas]

Yep ... I just purchased some more ... will take my average price down to $14. Will have a long way to go before I break even. Just need the PIF to keep them afloat for the next 5+ years I suppose.

Once they reach 50k deliveries, stock should reach $15

 

[kerplunk]

6001 deliveries for the year. 8,200 made. Hard to find a silver lining in any of it. It's been a rough year for conditions, but also can't lay it all at the doorsteps of the invisible hand. Hopefully they'll turn things around and I can cash out and buy the next car they make in a sensible size.
Burning incense to Scrooge McDuck and asking that Lucid's runway remains long because it will use time.

 

[gaskiller]

6001 deliveries for the year. 8,200 made. Hard to find a silver lining in any of it. It's been a rough year for conditions, but also can't lay it all at the doorsteps of the invisible hand. Hopefully they'll turn things around and I can cash out and buy the next car they make in a sensible size.
Burning incense to Scrooge McDuck and asking that Lucid's runway remains long because it will use time.

Agree. I’m wondering when Saudi will start buying the 100k they promised. I’m suspecting these will be Saudi only produced vehicles. They should be able to ramp up to 5k this year. Add to that US, few European sales, I can see this year being much better.

I’m holding a decade at least. So just accumulating whenever I can.

 

[xponents]

6001 deliveries for the year. 8,200 made. Hard to find a silver lining in any of it. It's been a rough year for conditions, but also can't lay it all at the doorsteps of the invisible hand. Hopefully they'll turn things around and I can cash out and buy the next car they make in a sensible size.
Burning incense to Scrooge McDuck and asking that Lucid's runway remains long because it will use time.

I dont get one thing though, where did the other 2200 go? Does that include the body shells being sent to the saudis? Inventory was low on the page, which I viewed as a good thing..

 

[Adnillien]

I dont get one thing though, where did the other 2200 go? Does that include the body shells being sent to the saudis? Inventory was low on the page, which I viewed as a good thing..

This is a very good question since the almost complete cars sent to Saudi Arabia are considered WIP rather than completed production. The Saudi factory has to complete them before they are called produced. The Saudi factory likely has some inventory of cars that have completed production and are not yet delivered but that does not explain the difference between deliveries and production.

 

[AustinAir]

Love my AGT but even at these low stock prices the market cap doesn’t make sense. Sadly I’m a buyer at ~$1.50 but I’ll happily buy their cars!

 

[HariK]

I actually sold a lot to cut my losses and redeploy and I lowered my average price of what I kept to 3.95. When the stock was 8.5, there was a rumor of PIF buyout and I sold all I had in 1 account back then for 17. If the stock keeps falling due to low numbers, PIF might decide to buy out for $10 That is my wishful thinking. That said, I think the IP value and the design is worth a lot more than $10 but only if they announce a 5 seater Model Y size priced above GV60 with 400 mile range. Smaller gravity I like to call Gravy.

 

[gaskiller]

Love my AGT but even at these low stock prices the market cap doesn’t make sense. Sadly I’m a buyer at ~$1.50 but I’ll happily buy their cars!

Market always looks forward , not at the present. Lucid enterprise value, meaning both factories, tooling would be about 2 billion, tech about 2 billion, inventory 0.5 billion, available cash 3 billion. Add to this the fact they will never go bankrupt and have PIF, limitless money to support, is that worth 30% premium - comes to around 10 billion. Presently it is undervalued. Should be at least $4.5.

That’s why I bought more today.

 

[thecodingart]

I’m seriously getting sick of Lucid’s stock being the primary negative news driver and omen bringer outside of these forums .

Between Facebook, news sites and Reddit this is the consistent flood of negative news trolls are clinging to:

https://www.reddit.com/r/LUCID/s/JkOfO7giIg

Log into Facebook

Log into Facebook to start sharing and connecting with your friends, family, and people you know.

www.facebook.com

Just seriously wish there was some stronger handed moderation in grounding these spins

 

[hydbob]

I’m seriously getting sick of Lucid’s stock being the primary negative news driver and omen bringer outside of these forums .

Between Facebook, news sites and Reddit this is the consistent flood of negative news trolls are clinging to:

https://www.reddit.com/r/LUCID/s/JkOfO7giIg

Log into Facebook

Log into Facebook to start sharing and connecting with your friends, family, and people you know.

www.facebook.com

Just seriously wish there was some stronger handed moderation in grounding these spins

I will endeavor to make those reddits more positive

 

[hmp10]

I’m seriously getting sick of Lucid’s stock being the primary negative news driver and omen bringer outside of these forums .

Between Facebook, news sites and Reddit this is the consistent flood of negative news trolls are clinging to:

https://www.reddit.com/r/LUCID/s/JkOfO7giIg

Log into Facebook

Log into Facebook to start sharing and connecting with your friends, family, and people you know.

www.facebook.com

Just seriously wish there was some stronger handed moderation in grounding these spins

This is similar to some earlier periods of Tesla stock during which Elon Musk constantly complained about a short-seller conspiracy against his stock. Of course, he's now been one of the leading voices doing the same thing to Lucid stock. No surprises here.

I think the assumptions that the Saudi PIF will continue to back Lucid endlessly no matter what are a bit optimistic. On the other hand, I think the PIF is still a strong backer. At current market cap, the $2.8B the PIF has put into Lucid to assemble a 61% stake in the company is worth about $4.55B, so the PIF has done pretty well on the investment even at recent stock price levels.

But I think there is another important factor in Saudi backing. Unlike so many stock investors, the Saudis are playing a long game in positioning themselves for a transition away from economic dependence on oil. When it comes to EVs, they are not looking just for quick stock profits; they are looking for a stake in leading technology.

There has been a lot of ranting on social media about Peter Rawlinson's lucrative compensation packages and absurd claims that he's "paying himself" while the house burns down. Besides overlooking the fact that Rawlinson's compensation is determined by a Board, it overlooks a deeper fact. Peter Rawlinson and the engineering and design team he has assembled are at the leading edge of the industry and the first -- and only -- to outpace Tesla on powertrain development. (Not just my opinion, but that of a wide swath of the automotive press, including even long-time Tesla fan and prominent automotive engineering consultant Sandy Munro.). In other words, Rawlinson has delivered big time for the Saudis on the real reason they're in the game.

This situation may change if the Gravity does not finally break through into a wider car market. But for now, I'm still betting that it is ultimately technology prowess that will pull Lucid through this dark pass.

P.S. And, yes, I know all the arguments about why the Saudis are unpleasant partners. But it's the U.S. reluctance to face into the issues of fossil fuel dependence that is holding the door wide open for them. At a time when a U.S. presidential campaign is calling for us to "drill, drill, drill!", the Saudis are playing a far more sophisticated long game.

 

[xponents]

This is similar to some earlier periods of Tesla stock during which Elon Musk constantly complained about a short-seller conspiracy against his stock. Of course, he's now been one of the leading voices doing the same thing to Lucid stock. No surprises here.

I think the assumptions that the Saudi PIF will continue to back Lucid endlessly no matter what are a bit optimistic. On the other hand, I think the PIF is still a strong backer. At current market cap, the $2.8B the PIF has put into Lucid to assemble a 61% stake in the company is worth about $4.55B, so the PIF has done pretty well on the investment even at recent stock price levels.

But I think there is another important factor in Saudi backing. Unlike so many stock investors, the Saudis are playing a long game in positioning themselves for a transition away from economic dependence on oil. When it comes to EVs, they are not looking just for quick stock profits; they are looking for a stake in leading technology.

There has been a lot of ranting on social media about Peter Rawlinson's lucrative compensation packages and absurd claims that he's "paying himself" while the house burn downs. Besides overlooking the fact that Rawlinson's compensation is determined by a Board, it overlooks a deeper fact. Peter Rawlinson and the engineering and design team he has assembled are at the leading edge of the industry and the first -- and only -- to outpace Tesla on powertrain development. (Not just my opinion, but that of a wide swath of the automotive press, including even long-time Tesla fan and prominent automotive engineering consultant Sandy Munro.). In other words, Rawlinson has delivered big time for the Saudis on the real reason they're in the game.

This situation may change if the Gravity does not finally break through into a wider car market. But for now, I'm still betting that it is ultimately technology prowess that will pull Lucid through this dark pass.

P.S. And, yes, I know all the arguments about why the Saudis are unpleasant partners. But it's the U.S. reluctance to face into the issues of fossil fuel dependence that is holding the door wide open for them. At a time when a U.S. presidential campaign is calling for us to "drill, drill, drill!", the Saudis are playing a far more sophisticated long game.

We can't forget here, the SPAC picked Lucid OVER Tesla, and this was likely because of the more sophisticated technology and potential seen, as you said. The fact that they are ordering 50k cars also supports this as those will be used for government purposes.

 

[hmp10]

I should add a correction to my above post (which I can no longer edit). The Saudis have invested a total of $5.4B in Lucid so far, not the $2.8B I gave in my post. So that puts them a bit underwater on their current holdings. However, I do not think it changes the real point that they're in this for the long game.

In fact, I think the point is bolstered by the fact that in 2019, after Musk's botched 2018 attempt to get Saudi backing to take Tesla private, the PIF dumped 99.5% of its Tesla holdings. I think the way Musk handled the funding situation scared them away from Tesla, as they spotted the emerging signs of some of the traits that have come into fuller flower of late. Here, too, their focus seemed to be on the long game.

 

[thecodingart]

I will endeavor to make those reddits more positive

Sorry to bring this up knowing some of our great mods in here are part time in those places . I understand the burden.

Unfortunately, I’d argue those places set a more public facing tone. It hasn’t been .. good unfortunately. It’s definitely not grounded in any way, but it has been absurdly misleading which will, in the end, effect the company image and miscommunication #fakenews everyone.

 

[hydbob]

Sorry to bring this up knowing some of our great mods in here are part time in those places . I understand the burden.

Unfortunately, I’d argue those places set a more public facing tone. It hasn’t been .. good unfortunately. It’s definitely not grounded in any way, but it has been absurdly misleading which will, in the end, effect the company image and miscommunication #fakenews everyone.

I only mod 2 of them so it's hard, and admittedly I spend most of my time here and not there because the forum is more respectable and for owners vs stonkbros

 

[thecodingart]

This is similar to some earlier periods of Tesla stock during which Elon Musk constantly complained about a short-seller conspiracy against his stock. Of course, he's now been one of the leading voices doing the same thing to Lucid stock. No surprises here.

I think the assumptions that the Saudi PIF will continue to back Lucid endlessly no matter what are a bit optimistic. On the other hand, I think the PIF is still a strong backer. At current market cap, the $2.8B the PIF has put into Lucid to assemble a 61% stake in the company is worth about $4.55B, so the PIF has done pretty well on the investment even at recent stock price levels.

But I think there is another important factor in Saudi backing. Unlike so many stock investors, the Saudis are playing a long game in positioning themselves for a transition away from economic dependence on oil. When it comes to EVs, they are not looking just for quick stock profits; they are looking for a stake in leading technology.

There has been a lot of ranting on social media about Peter Rawlinson's lucrative compensation packages and absurd claims that he's "paying himself" while the house burns down. Besides overlooking the fact that Rawlinson's compensation is determined by a Board, it overlooks a deeper fact. Peter Rawlinson and the engineering and design team he has assembled are at the leading edge of the industry and the first -- and only -- to outpace Tesla on powertrain development. (Not just my opinion, but that of a wide swath of the automotive press, including even long-time Tesla fan and prominent automotive engineering consultant Sandy Munro.). In other words, Rawlinson has delivered big time for the Saudis on the real reason they're in the game.

This situation may change if the Gravity does not finally break through into a wider car market. But for now, I'm still betting that it is ultimately technology prowess that will pull Lucid through this dark pass.

P.S. And, yes, I know all the arguments about why the Saudis are unpleasant partners. But it's the U.S. reluctance to face into the issues of fossil fuel dependence that is holding the door wide open for them. At a time when a U.S. presidential campaign is calling for us to "drill, drill, drill!", the Saudis are playing a far more sophisticated long game.

Meh, PIF owns a large chunk of Nintendo and most thing Americans love. Any push back against Lucid because of PIF usually comes across as hypocrisy due to ignorance and selective “awareness”.

 

[thecodingart]

side question, but does anyone actually have any insight into why the stock is continuing to tank to < $3 levels. Given the sales, market cap and production/delivery announcements — this seems unreasonable? Did an analyst put a hard sell on Lucid yesterday?

It’s at $3.02 right now with a hard dip, which I didn’t expect to be honest.

These articles released and I thought the cooldown would start today.

Why Lucid, Fisker, and QuantumScape Stocks Dropped Today | The Motley Fool

It's tough to make money building electric cars when few people want to buy them.

www.fool.com

 

[EXOTIC2]

Sorry to bring this up knowing some of our great mods in here are part time in those places . I understand the burden.

Unfortunately, I’d argue those places set a more public facing tone. It hasn’t been .. good unfortunately. It’s definitely not grounded in any way, but it has been absurdly misleading which will, in the end, effect the company image and miscommunication #fakenews everyone.

It’s not just specific to lucid it’s going on for all Ev’s ( Tesla/Rivian / bashing especially ) currently the media is relentless against all of them. You then have all the sheep, believing everything that comes out of their mouth against EV’s. I
There is no doubt about their agenda protecting the LEGACY auto makers….. post strike. The EV hate is at the highest point It’s been in the past two years. Look at the beating the stocks are taking it’s not just lucid, specific see Tesla, see Rivian.
See stock just inched below the $3 mark

 

[DeaneG]

side question, but does anyone actually have any insight into why the stock is continuing to tank to < $3 levels...

LCID is sinking even faster than its past linear decline. The PIF should take it private to mute most of the naysaying.