Any thoughts on how Q4 deliveries will be vs Q3? I've noticed more people on here on the "new owner" thread in Q4 or specifically this month. With all the incentives and $93k for MY 2022 grand touring, it certainly looks like it's going to be a great quarter. I do not know too much, just looking for other people's thoughts.
2023 Q4 Deliveries
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It’s obviously anecdotal, but I agree it sure feels like there are a lot of new owners around here lately.
I would hesitate to assume it was a “great” quarter. Great for Lucid, maybe. Better than Q3 perhaps. But I don’t want to get my hopes up.
The incentives seem to be doing some good. That’s for sure. But I don’t expect sales to grow much at least until Gravity arrives.
xponents
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A better quarter, maybe not a great quarter though is a tldr.
I'm skeptical. I don't think US sales will be that much of an improvement this quarter. With no recession in sight, I'm optimistic 2024 Air sales will be much better in US. I'm more interested in the Saudi sales. Saudi sales could really lift the numbers up.
This is a great point. I feel like Air’s greatest potential for growth is outside the US. Europe is just starting. SA. If they expand into a few more countries next year, they could potentially double shipments even prior to Gravity’s launch.
xponents
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Especially considering that the Europeans WANT smaller cars with a larger interior.. guess what the air is? Sedans and wagons are far more popular there, the only rental we could find for our Germany-Switzerland-Italy tour was a A6 Avant!(hard to find, 3 touring is more common). SUVS there are nowhere near popular as sedans, although that is changing.
And please make an Air wagon lol
Waiting for Polestar to get a clue.
No Amerikan automobile manufacturer will build a wagon (estate) now that they have spent so much convincing women the appropriate vehicle for picking up the kids soccer practice is a swamp buggy.
might be a Chinese Volvo in my future...
NoseyReporter
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We know there's at least 700 cars that should be added to the manufacturing count for Jeddah. How many of those get delivered is definitely a big ?.
Run rate for the US deliveries is about 1400 per quarter. At that rate we should expect 5600 deliveries for the year. I think a nice surprise would be anything over 6000.
On the assembly front, they are producing 2000 per quarter, so US based production number should be around 8000. Add the 700 in Jeddah and we are 1300 shy of the 10,000 target.
Given these numbers are public knowledge, I don't think I'm unrealistic about about 5600 delivered and 8700 produce for 2023. This SHOULD be hit, and a miss on either of these would be VERY disappointing, especially when considering Sherry's statement about the Q4 ramp.
I'd love to see them deliver every car they produced in 2023, 8700 give or take however that's probably highly unlikely. So I'll just generously guess they deliver 350 of the 700 assembled in Jeddah, and then sprinkle in a 20% uptick in the quarterly deliver rate (~1400) and pull a nice 6250 out of my ass.
Run rate for the US deliveries is about 1400 per quarter. At that rate we should expect 5600 deliveries for the year. I think a nice surprise would be anything over 6000.
On the assembly front, they are producing 2000 per quarter, so US based production number should be around 8000. Add the 700 in Jeddah and we are 1300 shy of the 10,000 target.
Given these numbers are public knowledge, I don't think I'm unrealistic about about 5600 delivered and 8700 produce for 2023. This SHOULD be hit, and a miss on either of these would be VERY disappointing, especially when considering Sherry's statement about the Q4 ramp.
I'd love to see them deliver every car they produced in 2023, 8700 give or take however that's probably highly unlikely. So I'll just generously guess they deliver 350 of the 700 assembled in Jeddah, and then sprinkle in a 20% uptick in the quarterly deliver rate (~1400) and pull a nice 6250 out of my ass.
Also, they had a significant amount of unsold cars on their balance sheet in the 3rd quarter that they had to move so you can assume that not all MY 2023 cars produced will be sold and delivered in this fiscal year in those total counts. They just need to meet their last guidance and that's a win to close out the year after missing and down forecasting every quarter this year.We know there's at least 700 cars that should be added to the manufacturing count for Jeddah. How many of those get delivered is definitely a big ?.
Run rate for the US deliveries is about 1400 per quarter. At that rate we should expect 5600 deliveries for the year. I think a nice surprise would be anything over 6000.
On the assembly front, they are producing 2000 per quarter, so US based production number should be around 8000. Add the 700 in Jeddah and we are 1300 shy of the 10,000 target.
Given these numbers are public knowledge, I don't think I'm unrealistic about about 5600 delivered and 8700 produce for 2023. This SHOULD be hit, and a miss on either of these would be VERY disappointing, especially when considering Sherry's statement about the Q4 ramp.
I'd love to see them deliver every car they produced in 2023, 8700 give or take however that's probably highly unlikely. So I'll just generously guess they deliver 350 of the 700 assembled in Jeddah, and then sprinkle in a 20% uptick in the quarterly deliver rate (~1400) and pull a nice 6250 out of my ass.
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Yep. seems like some money could be made on LCID porpoising up and down around $4.
xponents
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Yup, put about 250 stocks in at 3.90 today!(don't laugh about how relatively small it is, its a lot for me lol)
I see Lucid as a 5-10 year investment. Even if it drops, I wont lose much money... but if it goes to 50 dollars(realistic within 5-10 years) with the midsize car, gravity, and saudis ordering more car? Thats 20k for me! From this point onwards, Lucid is just introducing more products and I'm along for the ride.
This is not usually entirely accurate but gives rough estimation of US numbers. Scroll up to Dec.
For Dec 2024 535 delivered, total 5779 delivered in US for 2023. This excludes outside US. I'm hoping Saudi sales will be 500+...Saudi GOV did say they will buy at least 5k a year so they could easily have bought all the cars produced there in a blink of an eye.
For Dec 2024 535 delivered, total 5779 delivered in US for 2023. This excludes outside US. I'm hoping Saudi sales will be 500+...Saudi GOV did say they will buy at least 5k a year so they could easily have bought all the cars produced there in a blink of an eye.
USA - Flash report, Automotive sales volume, 2024 - MarkLines Automotive Industry Portal
U.S. auto sales rise 4.1 % in March.U.S. new vehicle sales of 1,440,615 units for the month of March represented an increase of 14.4% from February, and an increase of 4.1% from one year ago in March 2023. There were 27 selling days in March 2024, same as
www.marklines.com
NoseyReporter
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Let's see some international penetration.
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These may be Pennie’s but I saw sapphire 010 delivered on Reddit 
xponents
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Translation to make it sound better for everybody and hopefully drive the stock up: They delivered 3.23 pures at the same time!These may be Pennie’s but I saw sapphire 010 delivered on Reddit
Looks like 6k+ delivery and 8k manufacturing is in line. Unfortunately not enough of a catalyst to move the stock upwards. If they give good guidance for the next quarter and 2024 year, that could be a different story. 
NoseyReporter
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Anyone know when we are expecting this data to be released?
Probably this Thursday or Friday, with stock reaching all time low again, probably the worst is baked in. Until they so strong improvements in deliveries, it will probably bounce 3.5-4.5
If the stock hits 3.5, I'm loading up to dollar average this pig down. There can't be more bad news baked in moving forward, are there??? 
