We know there's at least 700 cars that should be added to the manufacturing count for Jeddah. How many of those get delivered is definitely a big ?.
Run rate for the US deliveries is about 1400 per quarter. At that rate we should expect 5600 deliveries for the year. I think a nice surprise would be anything over 6000.
On the assembly front, they are producing 2000 per quarter, so US based production number should be around 8000. Add the 700 in Jeddah and we are 1300 shy of the 10,000 target.
Given these numbers are public knowledge, I don't think I'm unrealistic about about 5600 delivered and 8700 produce for 2023. This SHOULD be hit, and a miss on either of these would be VERY disappointing, especially when considering Sherry's statement about the Q4 ramp.
I'd love to see them deliver every car they produced in 2023, 8700 give or take however that's probably highly unlikely. So I'll just generously guess they deliver 350 of the 700 assembled in Jeddah, and then sprinkle in a 20% uptick in the quarterly deliver rate (~1400) and pull a nice 6250 out of my ass.