Q3 results

[quantum]

Lucid Q1-Q3'2023 results (YOY change):

• Total production: 6,037 (up 64%)
• Total deliveries: 4,267 (up 75%)

2022 produced 7,180 and delivered 4369.

Total 2022-2023 to date produced = 13217, Delivered = 8906 Looks like they have 4311 cars to deliver. Might be about 300 loaners in that for use at service centers and for demos.

They probably have about 4000 cars to sell. I suspect they can move at least 2000 of those in the 4th quatrter, maybe 2500 if lucky. I dont expect production ramp up again until Jan 2024. Lots of knocked down kits will go to Saudi in Q4. Possibly another 1000 will be shipped there in Q4.

I'm glad to see more balance between production and demand. A few more quarters and we will see an upturn.

 

[Andretex]

Lucid Group vs Rivian Automotive. Lucid has always had in their plans, cars, licensing, and battery storage systems. That's a tech company not a car company

Start up failure reason number one - not focusing on one thing they do well. If they try to do it all, they may fail. But I agree, they started with sedans which have lower volume. Look at the number of Model S sold per quarter. Not that many. The problem has been on their sales forecast being too high. They need to reset expectations quickly. This thing of reducing expectations little by little every quarter is a bad idea. I wish they had some public company execs with experience to manage analyst expectations.

I would just tell the market that Lucid Airs are going to sell at 1500 per quarter and be done with it. Then focus on the SUV which will sell higher volumes. Third car must be a $50k model.

They will make it. Just be patient. The cars are too good, the battery tech is excellent.

 

[EXOTIC2]

Start up failure reason number one - not focusing on one thing they do well. If they try to do it all, they may fail. But I agree, they started with sedans which have lower volume. Look at the number of Model S sold per quarter. Not that many. The problem has been on their sales forecast being too high. They need to reset expectations quickly. This thing of reducing expectations little by little every quarter is a bad idea. I wish they had some public company execs with experience to manage analyst expectations.

I would just tell the market that Lucid Airs are going to sell at 1500 per quarter and be done with it. Then focus on the SUV which will sell higher volumes. Third car must be a $50k model.

They will make it. Just be patient. The cars are too good, the battery tech is excellent.

3 and Y are Tesla bread & butter however
Tesla still sold 176,372 Model S in 2022.
Gravity will be the key for Lucid going forward as there are tons of buyers of luxury suv in that 75-80 K range.
Agree they need that 50K sweet spot sedan to fill lineup.

 

[Andretex]

3 and Y are Tesla bread & butter however
Tesla still sold 176,372 Model S in 2022.
Gravity will be the key for Lucid going forward as there are tons of buyers of luxury suv in that 75-80 K range.
Agree they need that 50K sweet spot sedan to fill lineup.

Musk is great at missinformation. Here are the figures…

Q2 2023 (YOY change):

• Total production: 479,700 (up 86%)
  • Model 3/Y production: 460,211 (up 90%)
  • Model S/X production: 19,489 (up 19%)
• Total deliveries: 466,140 (up 83%)
  • Model 3/Y deliveries: 446,915 (up 87%)
  • Model S/X deliveries: 19,225 (up 19%)

notice q2 includes X and Y at 19,000 for the quarter. I bet most were X.

 

[Benjiron23]

I’m wondering if the NACS adoption news will assist in increasing these delivery numbers moving forward.

 

[quantum]

It also makes you think how they projected 49k sedans in 2023 when Tesla didn't even sell that many Model S's. Wonder who did their market analysis. Gravity was originally 2023 production, then pushed to early 2024, now late 2024. They need to get the Gravity out yesterday.

 

[Drendino]

I could not think of a worst economic environment in the last few decades to launch a luxury car company. Couple that with a pandemic and Lucid’s missteps with software and poor customer outreach regarding bugs and software development, and it truly is a perfect storm.

At first I was disappointed that the PIF had a controlling interest, but without them Lucid would not exist. I know this may sound weird, but I am grateful for the PIF’s investment. This technology is too important to disappear. If they have to take it private, so be it. We just need Lucid to survive this crazy economic environment.

 

[joec]

I’m wondering if the NACS adoption news will assist in increasing these delivery numbers moving forward.

I’m willing to bet it has zero effect.

 

[xponents]

I’m willing to bet it has zero effect.

And if any, I'd say it would be negative as people will want to wait.

 

[d0nsut]

I think I'm at the 2 month mark of Lucid ownership. I love my car and it is my first EV. I'm coming out of an S7 so I have a fairly high expectation of car performance and my Lucid meets these expectations. I also work in IT so I'm intrigued by these EV;s, "computers with wheels" that literally blow out the bar on vehicle performance. With that, owning a Lucid is not for the faint at heart, it has almost no brand recognition, marketing is weak, and it's price tag is tailored to upper middle class. I wouldn't even have looked twice at the car had I not found a service center here in Houston. Actually, I knew about the brand from Jay Leno's garage, but I wasn't looking to spend $500k on a Dream. I imagine a lot of 'potential buyers' think like me and likely, this is what keeps the number of Lucid sells low. I read about the financial challenges and while it was a alarming, if you have an opportunity to sit in and test drive this car, it's worth the risk. If you invested in or followed Amazon in the 2000's, the investment community used to crap all over Bezos and Amazon for their lack of profits and continual re-investment back into Amazon, while I won't compare Lucid to Amazon, startups are hard and most take awhile to get going. Look at Amazon now.... Back to the lack of cars on the road - lack of service centers to test drive, the negative financial information, and relatively light marketing, it's hard to want to take a chance on this brand especially with a 6-figure price tag. IMO (and my experience) you have to get in the car to truly want to take that risk. You can see a Tesla every 10th car in Houston and there are multiple places to schedule a test drive. I have yet to see one Lucid (other than mine) on the road here and we have a service center. It's going to be hard to get the numbers up based on these challenges. With that, I truly hope they do, I've at least bet on them to do so. The how is not yet known but hopefully the Saudis and the Gravity can help. Go Lucid!

 

[quantum]

I think I'm at the 2 month mark of Lucid ownership. I love my car and it is my first EV. I'm coming out of an S7 so I have a fairly high expectation of car performance and my Lucid meets these expectations. I also work in IT so I'm intrigued by these EV;s, "computers with wheels" that literally blow out the bar on vehicle performance. With that, owning a Lucid is not for the faint at heart, it has almost no brand recognition, marketing is weak, and it's price tag is tailored to upper middle class. I wouldn't even have looked twice at the car had I not found a service center here in Houston. Actually, I knew about the brand from Jay Leno's garage, but I wasn't looking to spend $500k on a Dream. I imagine a lot of 'potential buyers' think like me and likely, this is what keeps the number of Lucid sells low. I read about the financial challenges and while it was a alarming, if you have an opportunity to sit in and test drive this car, it's worth the risk. If you invested in or followed Amazon in the 2000's, the investment community used to crap all over Bezos and Amazon for their lack of profits and continual re-investment back into Amazon, while I won't compare Lucid to Amazon, startups are hard and most take awhile to get going. Look at Amazon now.... Back to the lack of cars on the road - lack of service centers to test drive, the negative financial information, and relatively light marketing, it's hard to want to take a chance on this brand especially with a 6-figure price tag. IMO (and my experience) you have to get in the car to truly want to take that risk. You can see a Tesla every 10th car in Houston and there are multiple places to schedule a test drive. I have yet to see one Lucid (other than mine) on the road here and we have a service center. It's going to be hard to get the numbers up based on these challenges. With that, I truly hope they do, I've at least bet on them to do so. The how is not yet known but hopefully the Saudis and the Gravity can help. Go Lucid!

Agree, the constant negativity about the financial status doesn't help. Also Musk saying Lucid going bankrupt hurt sales a lot. Its all down to marketing.

More service centers needed. That will make people more comfortable to buy.

Polestar brings the car to your home to try out. That could be something Lucid can do. The whole family can sit in the car and realize it's geatness.