Q3 production and deliveries?

[Drendino]

That's all great, but there really is not much overlap in customer base. The vast majority of customer sales for Tesla are the Y/3 and in the current economic landscape, those buyers are not overlapping with Air buyers. Some may choose Tesla over Lucid because of software, but at this price point, I believe the greater driving factor is brand loyalty.

There is no question about brand loyalty, but this forum is filled with disgruntled prior Tesla owners. Elon has isolated almost everyone who has purchased a Tesla in the last 1-2 years with the crazy price reductions. The question is, how many of these people would choose a Lucid if they knew the software was going to be better than it is today? Nobody at Lucid ever really talks about the software roadmap, which I believe underestimates the value people place on it when deciding on a car, particularly driver’s assistance. Whenever I talk to a Tesla owner, the whole conversation is usually about software and all of the parlor tricks it can do.

 

[xponents]

That's all great, but there really is not much overlap in customer base. The vast majority of customer sales for Tesla are the Y/3 and in the current economic landscape, those buyers are not overlapping with Air buyers. Some may choose Tesla over Lucid because of software, but at this price point, I believe the greater driving factor is brand loyalty.

Except for the people shopping a model s, which sales are higher than lucids. People won’t know about the driving until.. they actually drive it. Even then, how many families want driving over software? We are in the minority here.

 

[Drendino]

Except for the people shopping a model s, which sales are higher than lucids. People won’t know about the driving until.. they actually drive it. Even then, how many families want driving over software? We are in the minority here.

This is true. We are performance junkies, but most people care more if they can drive hands free and watch Netflix while waiting for their kids at baseball practice than 0-60 times. That’s my experience at least.

 

[manitou202]

It seems to me that everyone knows that Tesla’s ride and build quality is lacking, but people buy these cars because of the software, particularly the driver assistance features. The narrative that I always hear about Lucid is that the ride and build quality are so superior that the software doesn’t really matter like it does for the competition. I don’t agree with that.

How many Tesla buyers would choose a Pure or Touring if Lucid started talking about what specific driver assistance features are in development and provided an estimate on when they would be rolled out? They don’t need to say “full self driving by the end of the week”, but if they are really working on DD Pro features, why not message about it the way that everybody at Lucid talks about efficiency and performance?

Are that many people interested in and regularly using ADAS today? We rarely used enhanced autopilot in our Model X, and our EQS SUV has arguably a better ADAS system than our Tesla, and we hardly ever use it as well. We use it on long highway roadtrips, and occasionally in heavy traffic. Otherwise I prefer driving. In theory the Mercedes system is just as good as Tesla's or better, and it doesn't seem to be drawing a huge number of buyers away from the Model S/X.

I'm not convinced the lack of a competitive ADAS system is hurting Lucid sales. My guess is lack of awareness (not that many people know of the brand), lack of service centers, hesitation to buying an EV, and risk of buying from a startup.

In most metrics it is a better vehicle and a better value than the competition. Sure the software could use some work, but the same goes for our EQS, our Ioniq 5, and with all of my prior EVs (Taycan, E-tron, R1T, Model X). Everything else is superb and it has the status and exotic appeal that many premium buyers want.

Assuming the economy doesn't completely tank in the next 12 months, I'll be interested to see if the Pure gets a lot more traction, and if their recent ad campaign starts to have an effect. If not the best hope is for the Gravity and overseas sales to pick up.

 

[xponents]

Are that many people interested in and regularly using ADAS today? We rarely used enhanced autopilot in our Model X, and our EQS SUV has arguably a better ADAS system than our Tesla, and we hardly ever use it as well. We use it on long highway roadtrips, and occasionally in heavy traffic. Otherwise I prefer driving. In theory the Mercedes system is just as good as Tesla's or better, and it doesn't seem to be drawing a huge number of buyers away from the Model S/X.

I'm not convinced the lack of a competitive ADAS system is hurting Lucid sales. My guess is lack of awareness (not that many people know of the brand), lack of service centers, hesitation to buying an EV, and risk of buying from a startup.

In most metrics it is a better vehicle and a better value than the competition. Sure the software could use some work, but the same goes for our EQS, our Ioniq 5, and with all of my prior EVs (Taycan, E-tron, R1T, Model X). Everything else is superb and it has the status and exotic appeal that many premium buyers want.

Assuming the economy doesn't completely tank in the next 12 months, I'll be interested to see if the Pure gets a lot more traction, and if their recent ad campaign starts to have an effect. If not the best hope is for the Gravity and overseas sales to pick up.

All of the other reasons you listed are correct. However, ADAS is a reason people buy teslas. A lot of people buy a car for a feature they never end up using.

Among EV customers, tesla's level 2 stands out for one reason only. Its name. Tell me that "Autopilot" doesnt convey that it seems better than Mercedes "Drive Assist"... its all in the marketing. This is why teslas, even if they are not that good, still sell amazingly.

 

[St Bernard]

Are that many people interested in and regularly using ADAS today? We rarely used enhanced autopilot in our Model X, and our EQS SUV has arguably a better ADAS system than our Tesla, and we hardly ever use it as well. We use it on long highway roadtrips, and occasionally in heavy traffic. Otherwise I prefer driving. In theory the Mercedes system is just as good as Tesla's or better, and it doesn't seem to be drawing a huge number of buyers away from the Model S/X.

I'm not convinced the lack of a competitive ADAS system is hurting Lucid sales. My guess is lack of awareness (not that many people know of the brand), lack of service centers, hesitation to buying an EV, and risk of buying from a startup.

In most metrics it is a better vehicle and a better value than the competition. Sure the software could use some work, but the same goes for our EQS, our Ioniq 5, and with all of my prior EVs (Taycan, E-tron, R1T, Model X). Everything else is superb and it has the status and exotic appeal that many premium buyers want.

Assuming the economy doesn't completely tank in the next 12 months, I'll be interested to see if the Pure gets a lot more traction, and if their recent ad campaign starts to have an effect. If not the best hope is for the Gravity and overseas sales to pick up.

While Gravity will increase sales how many can they sell? If you look at Mercedes EQE and EQS sales Lucid is not going to sell more with Gravity. Mercedes is discounting their EQ cars$ 6-8k. Does the World need another SUV over $100k Plus Options? The stock is trading under $5. The decreasing production numbers from the same qtr last year tells u that interest is decreasing. Interesting that their Saudi backers are not taking the company private. So the real question is how long can Lucid survive until they can sell 50,000 car a year. At 10,000 or less this year they are going to run out of money.

 

[xponents]

While Gravity will increase sales how many can they sell? If you look at Mercedes EQE and EQS sales Lucid is not going to sell more with Gravity. Mercedes is discounting their EQ cars$ 6-8k. Does the World need another SUV over $100k Plus Options? The stock is trading under $5. The decreasing production numbers from the same qtr last year tells u that interest is decreasing. Interesting that their Saudi backers are not taking the company private. So the real question is how long can Lucid survive until they can sell 50,000 car a year. At 10,000 or less this year they are going to run out of money.

What?

Look at R1S sales and THEN tell me this. Mercedes is the outlier discounting by upwards of 20 percent because their cars are mediocre. And the gravity should have more range, power, space, and looks than the EQS...

Also, Lucid has a cash flow to survive for a good amount of time. Too many people expect Lucid to be Tesla. Sorry, we arent. Then, they would have started with a model y competitor.

 

[quantum]

I love how you say these things like saying them would will them into existence.

“Start Gravity Production Now.” And poof. AMP-1 just starts pooping out Gravity.

You get that it’s a bit more complicated than that, right? Like, they have to actually finish designing and testing the car first. Write new software. Get government approvals. Do EPA tests. Crash tests. Train service technicians, production line workers, sales staff. Create marketing materials. And on and on and on.

This isn’t SIM City.

Yes, and you move fast, they should be working on the smaller car now as well. Not wait till Gravity is into production. When sales were pathetic last year, you change course! Taking more than 2 years to get the base model out is senseless in this economy!

 

[St Bernard]

What?

Look at R1S sales and THEN tell me this. Mercedes is the outlier discounting by upwards of 20 percent because their cars are mediocre. And the gravity should have more range, power, space, and looks than the EQS...

Also, Lucid has a cash flow to survive for a good amount of time. Too many people expect Lucid to be Tesla. Sorry, we arent. Then, they would have started with a model y competitor.

Will Gravity be able to compete price wise with Lucid?

 

[quantum]

Are that many people interested in and regularly using ADAS today? We rarely used enhanced autopilot in our Model X, and our EQS SUV has arguably a better ADAS system than our Tesla, and we hardly ever use it as well. We use it on long highway roadtrips, and occasionally in heavy traffic. Otherwise I prefer driving. In theory the Mercedes system is just as good as Tesla's or better, and it doesn't seem to be drawing a huge number of buyers away from the Model S/X.

I'm not convinced the lack of a competitive ADAS system is hurting Lucid sales. My guess is lack of awareness (not that many people know of the brand), lack of service centers, hesitation to buying an EV, and risk of buying from a startup.

In most metrics it is a better vehicle and a better value than the competition. Sure the software could use some work, but the same goes for our EQS, our Ioniq 5, and with all of my prior EVs (Taycan, E-tron, R1T, Model X). Everything else is superb and it has the status and exotic appeal that many premium buyers want.

Assuming the economy doesn't completely tank in the next 12 months, I'll be interested to see if the Pure gets a lot more traction, and if their recent ad campaign starts to have an effect. If not the best hope is for the Gravity and overseas sales to pick up.

Lucid needs to make more dramatic software improvements, why not have Netflix on the center panel??? Introduce Dog mode! Robustness is important but so are the others. Slowly losing the plot!

 

[quantum]

Hope Peter learns from his mistakes!!!

 

[Drendino]

Are that many people interested in and regularly using ADAS today?

I think you just have to follow the money to see how important it is to people. Most if not all of the auto manufacturers are investing big bucks into the technology and I can't imagine they would do that if people didn't care about it. It's not just Tesla, GM has Super Cruise, Ford has Blue Cruise, I don't know what BMW calls it but they have absolutely crushed it with line of sight assisted driving. All of these companies market the heck out of these features.

I'm assuming that Lucid is working on improving and rolling out new Dream Drive features, so why not tell people? I'm not saying that it is going to double their revenue or anywhere close, but it will get people excited about what is coming and would definitely help sales to some extent.

Before CarPlay rolled out, it was a favourite topic on this forum. We couldn't wait until it rolled out and I actually remember where I was when it finally hit. Now it's out and most of us enjoy and use it every day, but rarely post about it. Sometimes the excitement about what is coming is more important than what is actually delivered. It's human nature and is the reason why some people get depressed after they unwrap their presents on Christmas Day. I'm just saying that it would be helpful if Lucid tapped into this kind of emotion and discussed their software roadmap to excite current and future owners. Peter used to say that Lucid was not a car company, it was a technology company. I would like to hear more of that, but with actual deliverable information every once in a while.

 

[quantum]

Lucid's projections were never realistic given the sales of luxury sedans in the US. Here are the sales figures for 2019, pre-Covid, pre-supply chain. Total is about 45K so thinking you are going to capture 44% of the market at 20K cars is totally unrealistic. The company seems to have based their projections on the Model S which captured a large portion of the luxury sedan market early on but that car was the first EV in the segment and the market is now saturated with options. Starting with an SUV would have been a better option, as would starting with a lower priced SUV offering, losing money on each sale but having a Lucid's tech in a hot segment where sales could scale up to the point of profitability. Love my Air but I am one of the few who continues to purchase sedans and prioritizes handling and efficiency.

2019 Luxury Car Sales
BMW 7	8823​
Panamera	6625​
Audi A8	2963​
Mercedes S	12503​
Tesla S	14425​
Total	45339​

So luxury car sales 45k in 2019 and Lucid predicted 49k Air sedan production in 2023? Makes you think! What a big failure in assessing the market! Who did Lucid consult for marketing? Or did they just pull the number out of a hat! Looking at 2019 sakes, even I would not put out a 49k production number. And they can’t even sell 10k cars a year!

 

[Adnillien]

I think you just have to follow the money to see how important it is to people. Most if not all of the auto manufacturers are investing big bucks into the technology and I can't imagine they would do that if people didn't care about it. It's not just Tesla, GM has Super Cruise, Ford has Blue Cruise, I don't know what BMW calls it but they have absolutely crushed it with line of sight assisted driving. All of these companies market the heck out of these features.

I'm assuming that Lucid is working on improving and rolling out new Dream Drive features, so why not tell people? I'm not saying that it is going to double their revenue or anywhere close, but it will get people excited about what is coming and would definitely help sales to some extent.

Before CarPlay rolled out, it was a favourite topic on this forum. We couldn't wait until it rolled out and I actually remember where I was when it finally hit. Now it's out and most of us enjoy and use it every day, but rarely post about it. Sometimes the excitement about what is coming is more important than what is actually delivered. It's human nature and is the reason why some people get depressed after they unwrap their presents on Christmas Day. I'm just saying that it would be helpful if Lucid tapped into this kind of emotion and discussed their software roadmap to excite current and future owners. Peter used to say that Lucid was not a car company, it was a technology company. I would like to hear more of that, but with actual deliverable information every once in a while.

Peter did not say that Lucid was a software company and it seems that you are asking for a software roadmap. Lucid is a technology company when it comes to it's electric motor power density and efficiency, its inverter architecture, battery module architecture and thermal management, overall space and and efficiency. We have seen lots of evidence that Lucid is a technology company and a technology leader.

 

[hydbob]

Hope Peter learns from his mistakes!!!

As much as I love hearing this, take this in the kindest way, you need to chill the f*"$ out or I will temp ban you.

 

[Shenlon]

As much as I love hearing this, take this in the kindest way, you need to chill the f*"$ out or I will temp ban you.

Did I miss something? I didn't think he said anything inappropriate? Sounds like he is just hoping that the CEO of the company updates strategy to make sure the company stays solvent?

 

[Drendino]

Peter did not say that Lucid was a software company and it seems that you are asking for a software roadmap. Lucid is a technology company when it comes to it's electric motor power density and efficiency, its inverter architecture, battery module architecture and thermal management, overall space and and efficiency. We have seen lots of evidence that Lucid is a technology company and a technology leader.

You are correct, I meant to say that he said it was a technology company.

Yes, I think discussing the software roadmap and getting people excited for what’s to come would be good for business.

 

[xponents]

Did I miss something? I didn't think he said anything inappropriate? Sounds like he is just hoping that the CEO of the company updates strategy to make sure the company stays solvent?

In my opinion, the content of what he said was absolutely fine. However, the tone with the exclamation points and question marks and such things are... less ideal. Can you imagine your close friend saying that to you in person? If not, I believe it isnt really a "neighborly" tone.

 

[Adnillien]

You are correct, I meant to say that he said it was a technology company.

Yes, I think discussing the software roadmap and getting people excited for what’s to come would be good for business.

I would love to see a software roadmap also but I don't think that is what is holding back car sales. It is likely holding back sales of DDPro as an option though.

 

[NoseyReporter]

The more I think about it, the more I see Lucid as the drivers car of the EV world. I've had so many people describe to me that their EV is like an appliance, whereas every Lucid owner and reviewer seem to rave about Lucid and its handling. As I said before, an EV with a soul. Like the BMW of EVs? Parallel to this though, I think that ADAS technology is not something you develop overnight. You need petabytes of real world training data, some serious computing power, and an army of people to help train your models. In this regard, I think Lucid is years behind the competition. Hence, I think they are highly dependent on NVIDIA's progress with their ADAS solution.

My opinion is not fully baked, but I get the sense that Lucid wants to focus on making a driver focused EV while using partners to fill the rest of the technology requirements. The problem is that its tech partners are behind when compared to current EV leaders. Think Nvidia vs Tesla ADAS, or EA vs Tesla supercharging.