Q3 production and deliveries?

[Tesla2.0]

Air is in a tiny segment of overall pie.

 

[Tâm]

In retrospect, it seems management overestimated and overspent company cash in such huge factory production capacity.

It was a different time not too long ago.

EV was in high demand. At that time, every EV not in production was already taken by a reservation. As soon as an EV got out of the factory, it was quickly bought if there wasn't a reservation for it. Even with a market adjustment of an additional $20,000:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1447825624568057861

Or an additional market adjustment of $69,554 for a total price of $140,603.

Now, time has changed. The question is how to change with time!

 

[xponents]

It was a different time not too long ago.

EV was in high demand. At that time, every EV not in production was already taken by a reservation. As soon as an EV got out of the factory, it was quickly bought if there wasn't a reservation for it. Even with a market adjustment of an additional $20,000:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1447825624568057861

Or an additional market adjustment of $69,554 for a total price of $140,603.

Now, time has changed. The question is how to change with time!

If I saw that, I would walk out and set the dealership on fire.. 150k for a lightning and 90k for a mach e?

 

[xponents]

Bottomline, it is just wrong time for automakers to be in luxury market now. Higher end consumers are moving towards mid-tier. The stretching segment consumers can’t get financing because higher interest rate and credit scrutiny. The better market now is in slightly used car market or lower-mid tier market. That is one of top catalysts affecting Lucid sale, Ford also has 450 days of inventory piled up for F150 Lightning. The interest rate and inflation is just hurting overall economy.

I also will note that even entry level customers are moving to mid level. The most traded in car for a model y/3 is a corolla or tacoma. Entry level and high level cars are suffering as a result.

I remember when a F150 lightning was unobtanium.. bad days.

 

[hydbob]

I also will note that even entry level customers are moving to mid level. The most traded in car for a model y/3 is a corolla or tacoma. Entry level and high level cars are suffering as a result.

I remember when a F150 lightning was unobtanium.. bad days.

Model 3/y are entry level cars...well maybe not the Y, but definitely the 3.

 

[xponents]

Model 3/y are entry level cars...well maybe not the Y, but definitely the 3.

If the 3 is an entry level, then what would a corolla be? I don't mean "entry" level, just the level above a corolla. Maybe like a camry?(although i will take a tesla over a camry every day, electric powertrains are magic)

Also, are the Y and 3 not the same other than the obvious category difference and price?

 

[hydbob]

If the 3 is an entry level, then what would a corolla be? I don't mean "entry" level, just the level above a corolla. Maybe like a camry?(although i will take a tesla over a camry every day, electric powertrains are magic)

Also, are the Y and 3 not the same other than the obvious category difference and price?

Well the Corolla starts at 21400 for a base model. A Model 3 can be had for 27400...not too far off.

Camry is 27. So makes sense.

 

[xponents]

Well the Corolla starts at 21400 for a base model. A Model 3 can be had for 27400...not too far off.

Camry is 27. So makes sense.

Is this including state credits? In new jersey, excluding the BS gas saving price(which should not be counted) and our 4000 dollar credit, it is 32000. And that is with federal tax credits...

I will say, good on tesla for making the 3 so affordable. I do not see any other electric sedan for 30ish grand, potential first car material for me with the equinox ev. Even 40 grand cars are horribly slow(ioniq 6) although they may be better in other areas.

Anyways, conversation back to Lucid!

 

[Tesla2.0]

It was a different time not too long ago.

EV was in high demand. At that time, every EV not in production was already taken by a reservation. As soon as an EV got out of the factory, it was quickly bought if there wasn't a reservation for it. Even with a market adjustment of an additional $20,000:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1447825624568057861

Or an additional market adjustment of $69,554 for a total price of $140,603.

Now, time has changed. The question is how to change with time!

There was even a Hummer EV $100,000 market adjustment, and it is still sitting in parking lot. Dealer expect haggling that number.

 

[Negan1000]

I think it's important to see a comparison to what many would consider competitors to the Air across the same time period of Q3 2023 in the U.S. I found some figures below but if they are wrong, feel free to correct me.

Porsche Taycan	2,050
Lucid Air	1,457*
Mercedes-Benz EQS	1,100
Audi e-Tron GT	638

* Includes deliveries to Canada and Europe as Lucid doesn't share strictly share U.S. sales and delivery information.

To me, it looks like the Air is in-line with its competitors, assuming that deliveries to Canada and Europe were on the low-end. I wanted to include data on the i7 and Model S, but BMW and Tesla both aggregate them in with other vehicles they have (for BMW, they lump everything into "7 Series" and Tesla lumps the Model S and Model X together). Really, the story here is that full-size sedans just don't sell well in the U.S. anymore and the waning of EV sales just contributes further to that. This also just reinforces the fact that the Gravity and the future mid-size offerings will be what will control the outlook of the company. The Air, however, holds its own just fine it the segment it was meant to compete in.


I certainly think so. If I remember correctly, back when Lucid published the reservation numbers, they stated that the average transaction price for the book was around $92,000 or so, which skews it heavily towards the Pure trim. I would imagine that a majority of the Pure reservation holders are also wanting the RWD variant, mostly due to it being the lowest price.

Porsche and MBz have other cars to sell to make higher sales - more profitable.

 

[par11768]

Lucid's projections were never realistic given the sales of luxury sedans in the US. Here are the sales figures for 2019, pre-Covid, pre-supply chain. Total is about 45K so thinking you are going to capture 44% of the market at 20K cars is totally unrealistic. The company seems to have based their projections on the Model S which captured a large portion of the luxury sedan market early on but that car was the first EV in the segment and the market is now saturated with options. Starting with an SUV would have been a better option, as would starting with a lower priced SUV offering, losing money on each sale but having a Lucid's tech in a hot segment where sales could scale up to the point of profitability. Love my Air but I am one of the few who continues to purchase sedans and prioritizes handling and efficiency.

2019 Luxury Car Sales
BMW 7	8823​
Panamera	6625​
Audi A8	2963​
Mercedes S	12503​
Tesla S	14425​
Total	45339​

 

[DBV]

Model 3/y are entry level cars...well maybe not the Y, but definitely the 3.

I definitely do not think the model 3/Y as entry level cars and I think majority of US population would agree with me.

 

[Drendino]

I definitely do not think the model 3/Y as entry level cars and I think majority of US population would agree with me.

I think you are both right. It’s probably not quite entry level, but at this point you can get a used Model 3 with not too many miles at the price of a new Kia.

 

[Daniel2022AT]

Price cut only happened in September, so these delivery not really shown price cut, the higher delivery will show in Q4.

Informative article in the WSJ a couple days ago stating EV demand is softening across the board. All EV segments and models are experiencing demand weakness and increasing inventory despite price cuts. So this is not a Lucid problem and tweaking the product and pricing of a $90-120k sedan will only impact sales a couple hundred units. Gravity is of course vital but yet another $100k SUV in the 2024-2025 timeframe will be met with stiff competition. But it is in a market segment 5x larger than luxury sedans. By the time Lucid launches a mid-size vehicle say 2026 in the $55-70k price point that segment will be completely saturated with product but clearly the sweat spot for volume.

Overall the EV market is stuck at 9% market share. How to increase EV demand overall? 1. Federal zero interest loans for charging infrastructure. 2. Carbon tax to reward energy efficiency. Then wait patiently for 10 years for those initiatives to have an impact. This is a very very long game. You cannot declare victory or defeat in the first 5 minutes of the first quarter.

 

[quantum]

Informative article in the WSJ a couple days ago stating EV demand is softening across the board. All EV segments and models are experiencing demand weakness and increasing inventory despite price cuts. So this is not a Lucid problem and tweaking the product and pricing of a $90-120k sedan will only impact sales a couple hundred units. Gravity is of course vital but yet another $100k SUV in the 2024-2025 timeframe will be met with stiff competition. But it is in a market segment 5x larger than luxury sedans. By the time Lucid launches a mid-size vehicle say 2026 in the $55-70k price point that segment will be completely saturated with product but clearly the sweat spot for volume.

Overall the EV market is stuck at 9% market share. How to increase EV demand overall? 1. Federal zero interest loans for charging infrastructure. 2. Carbon tax to reward energy efficiency. Then wait patiently for 10 years for those initiatives to have an impact. This is a very very long game. You cannot declare victory or defeat in the first 5 minutes of the first quarter.

Exactly the reason why Lucid needs to change trajectory. They dont have the luxury to drag their feet getting the Gravity out and the smaller Car/SUV. Gravity should have started production this year. And now, they want to postpone to the end of 2024? Why drag feet? By then there will be more competition and anyone who wanted to buy a large EV SUV would have bought a Cadillac or Merc!! And the small car in 2026? TOOO SLOOOOW!

 

[joec]

Exactly the reason why Lucid needs to change trajectory. They dont have the luxury to drag their feet getting the Gravity out and the smaller Car/SUV. Gravity should have started production this year. And now, they want to postpone to the end of 2024? Why drag feet? By then there will be more competition and anyone who wanted to buy a large EV SUV would have bought a Cadillac or Merc!! And the small car in 2026? TOOO SLOOOOW!

I love how you say these things like saying them would will them into existence.

“Start Gravity Production Now.” And poof. AMP-1 just starts pooping out Gravity.

You get that it’s a bit more complicated than that, right? Like, they have to actually finish designing and testing the car first. Write new software. Get government approvals. Do EPA tests. Crash tests. Train service technicians, production line workers, sales staff. Create marketing materials. And on and on and on.

This isn’t SIM City.

 

[MorganB]

Exactly the reason why Lucid needs to change trajectory. They dont have the luxury to drag their feet getting the Gravity out and the smaller Car/SUV. Gravity should have started production this year. And now, they want to postpone to the end of 2024? Why drag feet? By then there will be more competition and anyone who wanted to buy a large EV SUV would have bought a Cadillac or Merc!! And the small car in 2026? TOOO SLOOOOW!

The problem I have with "they should have started with the Pure" "They should have released the Gravity earlier" is that these types of statements are in a void of reality of design and production. For example, starting with a say 75k Pure and an imaginary 30,000 orders. Brand new company building their first car on the line... do you think realistically they can pump out 30,000 Pures in say 6 months or even 12? This is why they start with the most expensive model.

I am 100% positive that EVERY part in the Dream Edition cost Lucid much more per part than the parts in the Pure even if identical becuase they didnt have scale yet. You also get to build a handful of motors for example and find any weaknesses or issues that slipped through in testing and development as the cars hit the road. It's better to replace say 15 electric motors than 5,000. It also allows you to refine your product leading up to mass sales which is where optics are very very important. Refine quality during the ramp up and your brand will have a better reputation once you start producing volume. The Gravity doesn't need to be released until the software is truly ready for primetime. This is a 10 year trajectory to get this brand off the ground.

The Gravity takes time. Its not like they are focused on coffee breaks and vacations and just plan to get around to producing the Gravity when they feel like it.

 

[NoseyReporter]

Remind me of a calculus class I sat in many many many moons ago. Something about optimizing area under the curve for profitability in manufacturing. I should have paid way more attention in math class.

I'm sure Lucid has all the information needed to model this data out. They know where they are at, what they've done correctly and what they've missed on.

 

[Drendino]

I know that Lucid likes to compete with the luxury German auto manufacturers, not Tesla. The problem is that everyone, including the German companies are really competing with Tesla, whether they like it or not. Mercedes, BMW and Porsche’s numbers are not that much better than Lucid, so it’s not realistic to think that Lucid is going to create and command a high volume market, when it doesn’t even exist in this economy.

It seems to me that everyone knows that Tesla’s ride and build quality is lacking, but people buy these cars because of the software, particularly the driver assistance features. The narrative that I always hear about Lucid is that the ride and build quality are so superior that the software doesn’t really matter like it does for the competition. I don’t agree with that.

How many Tesla buyers would choose a Pure or Touring if Lucid started talking about what specific driver assistance features are in development and provided an estimate on when they would be rolled out? They don’t need to say “full self driving by the end of the week”, but if they are really working on DD Pro features, why not message about it the way that everybody at Lucid talks about efficiency and performance? I’ve never understood why they don’t discuss software development, which personally makes me feel that it’s not really a priority the way companies like Tesla and Rivian treat it.

I’m not trying to sound like an armchair quarterback, but how many more cars would they sell if consumers knew what was coming? I know it’s not going to double production or anything even close, but I think better marketing and messaging could help convert more Tesla owners, many of which stay with Tesla because of the software.

 

[hydbob]

I know that Lucid likes to compete with the luxury German auto manufacturers, not Tesla. The problem is that everyone, including the German companies are really competing with Tesla, whether they like it or not. Mercedes, BMW and Porsche’s numbers are not that much better than Lucid, so it’s not realistic to think that Lucid is going to create and command a high volume market, when it doesn’t even exist in this economy.

It seems to me that everyone knows that Tesla’s ride and build quality is lacking, but people buy these cars because of the software, particularly the driver assistance features. The narrative that I always hear about Lucid is that the ride and build quality are so superior that the software doesn’t really matter like it does for the competition. I don’t agree with that.

How many Tesla buyers would choose a Pure or Touring if Lucid started talking about what specific driver assistance features are in development and provided an estimate on when they would be rolled out? They don’t need to say “full self driving by the end of the week”, but if they are really working on DD Pro features, why not message about it the way that everybody at Lucid talks about efficiency and performance? I’ve never understood why they don’t discuss software development, which personally makes me feel that it’s not really a priority the way companies like Tesla and Rivian treat it.

I’m not trying to sound like an armchair quarterback, but how many more cars would they sell if consumers knew what was coming? I know it’s not going to double production or anything even close, but I think better marketing and messaging could help convert more Tesla owners, many of which stay with Tesla because of the software.

That's all great, but there really is not much overlap in customer base. The vast majority of customer sales for Tesla are the Y/3 and in the current economic landscape, those buyers are not overlapping with Air buyers. Some may choose Tesla over Lucid because of software, but at this price point, I believe the greater driving factor is brand loyalty.