Q3 production and deliveries?

[stratus]

Nobody wants the F150 EV

The only hot truck is the Rivian ( for good reason ). I guess you could include the Cybertruck ,but I still don’t understand what that vehicle is besides a weird anvil shaped monstrosity.

The US is a weird market. Half the population hates EVs, so there is that.

Let’s all hope the Saudi AMP factory can brighten the outlook .

 

[Tesla2.0]

Just giving feedback to Lucid management. Hope they read these posts. Their marketing research seems to be wrong. Why not add 500 plus mile battery in the cheapest version?? They have an amazing product. Why not selling? Poor sales scares people from buying. Becomes a vicious circle. To break it you need to change strategy. Hope they don’t do this to the Gravity!

Being an investor, I don’t mind letting Lucid management know my opinion. 1500 sales in 3rd quarter is very very bad!

Agree, I’m armchairing , but considering how the sales are going, and being an investor , I feel it’s important to get these points out.

Battery is expensive. It is crazy to put 108kWh pack in Pure, that would be a great way to piss off existing GT and Touring owners. It’s not 500 miles what buyers are looking. Like Ford CEO Jim Farley said, there is no range anxiety, but it’s charging anxiety.

Tesla responded and adjusted its price quicker than other auto-makers is because their market intelligence is more advanced to down to weekly data of demand and overall macroeconomic. They dropped MS & MX price in September as soon as they have inventory piled up. It turned out Rivian actually delivered about same number of vehicles as flagship MS & MX.

Air certainly has best drive dynamic. Corporate survival is not about who can make the best product, but who can sell more to sustain profitability at faster pace.

 

[joec]

The only hot truck is the Rivian ( for good reason ). I guess you could include the Cybertruck ,but I still don’t understand what that vehicle is besides a weird anvil shaped monstrosity.

The US is a weird market. Half the population hates EVs, so there is that.

Let’s all hope the Saudi AMP factory can brighten the outlook .

I continue to believe Lucid will do far better in Europe and the Middle East than it ever does here. And I have no issue with that.

Other parts of the world have always had better taste in cars than us.

 

[stratus]

I continue to believe Lucid will do far better in Europe and the Middle East than it ever does here. And I have no issue with that.

Other parts of the world have always had better taste in cars than us.

For sure, our obsession with monster trucks is weird.

 

[quantum]

How much extra is the larger battery? I would say 10k. You could sell a Pure at 87k with 520 mile range. I wouldn’t care if earlier buyers of GT/Dream get upset. That’s the nature of the game.

 

[stratus]

Almost every single person I speak to about EVs, including those that are curious about my car, site lack of charging infrastructure as the number one deterrent to getting excited about buying one . Perhaps in places like California and the northeast , this is not a big hurdle , but here it’s a real problem.
For instance, there is not a single option for DCFC in either Jackson Hole ( other than Tesla )or Sun Valley, 2 of the most popular vacation spots in the country. There are plenty of options for level 2 charging , but that is just not good enough.

It’s seems Tesla’s dominance will not end until this is rectified.

 

[quantum]

The battery is the most expensive component of any EV. Why not add 500+ mile battery? Because then the car would have to be $130,000k+ And that car already exists.

The Pure's range is already better than anyone else in the industry, other than higher-priced Lucids.

Poor sales are occurring industry wide. Even Tesla's sales are way down this past quarter. And they are selling cars for around half what the Pure costs.

Interest in EVs at the moment, which are still too expensive, is waning. They are seen culturally as a luxury many can't afford. This hits Lucid harder than others, since they have far less brand recognition and leaned into Luxury at what turned out to be a bad time. (Not that anyone could predict that over 5 years ago when they were making their strategic choices.)

Peter has said time and again that when Lucid does go for a sub $50k car, it will likely have a smaller battery, not a larger one. That's just economics. But a mid-sized sedan that still gets 300 miles to a charge would easily put them in competition with the likes of the Model 3, which claims over 300 miles but never really gets it. And at that point, the Lucid will also carry with it a better reputation for higher status, thanks to the Air and Gravity.

There's almost nothing they can do in the short term to make their situation much better. Just keep executing. Make current customers happy. Keep trying to steal customers from Mercedes and BMW. Ride out the storm.

At least, that's what I would advise. But what would I know?

1500 sales after price cuts means approach has to change dramatically. I hope this is not repeated with Gravity.

 

[stratus]

In all honesty, I think some of us are genuinely worried about the future of our vehicles and are perhaps venting a little.
Not having my Lucid around would be akin to having a divorce , just slightly worse.

 

[xponents]

IF I were in charge of segmenting lucid's lineup (I am NOT trying to give advice, just a fantasy situation), it would go as following:

Two key trims: Air as well as Air Sapphire. Thats it. Kind of like the BMW 3 vs M3.

Within the Air trim, there are battery options, some of which are coupled to motors. For example, the 92 kwh battery currently used in pures and touring must be locked with the 620 hp motor currently in use with the touring(I did this choice to maintain competitiveness with tesla. Yes, the car is better in so much other ways. No, most people do not care.) The 112/118 kwh battery pack would be given a choice of the current GT motor(819) or the GT-P motor(1050).

Now, the option fun starts. With the base Air trim, any option should be able to be coupled with any battery/motor combination. If needed, make some in packages for manufacturing simplicity. I have a consensus that this will not affect manufacturing complexity as it is not too far off of what is currently being offered right now with pure customization. The Air Sapphire trim will have all options standard. There will also be a leather upgrade package optional for both packs, as what if you just want a barebones 516 mile car?

I would also love to add a cheaper Air trim. Remove one battery module(remove the one that goes under the front seat, toe room will be MASSIVELY improved and it will have the most legroom of any car ever made excluding RR.) This will have around 300 miles of range, and cost around 55-65k. However, there is almost a 0 percent chance of this happening as the lesser range would dillute the price.

How is badging handled? Solely by hp, or range(depends on the audience lucid is trying to go for).

This badge on the rear of the car currently has the trim level on that tiny strip(this picture shows "grand touring.") Replace that with HP or range, I feel like range would be better.

I am not trying to be an armchair CEO, this is just a fantasy.

 

[Tesla2.0]

Almost every single person I speak to about EVs, including those that are curious about my car, site lack of charging infrastructure as the number one deterrent to getting excited about buying one . Perhaps in places like California and the northeast , this is not a big hurdle , but here it’s a real problem.
For instance, there is not a single option for DCFC in either Jackson Hole ( other than Tesla )or Sun Valley, 2 of the most popular vacation spots in the country. There are plenty of options for level 2 charging , but that is just not good enough.

It’s seems Tesla’s dominance will not end until this is rectified.

Quoting Jay Leno in his recent Tesla Semi test drive on YouTube, “Tesla isn’t just making enthusiasts’ cars, they are actually pushing world to electrification with foresight of supplying of charging infrastructure when production is there.”

Rivian is following behind in execution and being accused by Tesla fanbois of copying software features and initiated Rivian Charger Network. Even though Rivian has options, they still listen to their customers to follow Ford to made NACS adoption. It’s just perception to people in the market shopping for an EV.

 

[Tesla2.0]

1500 sales after price cuts means approach has to change dramatically. I hope this is not repeated with Gravity.

Price cut only happened in September, so these delivery not really shown price cut, the higher delivery will show in Q4.

 

[manitou202]

Do we think that the recently launch of the Pure will pick up sales? The recently price cuts and lease rates should have an impact. We weren't planning on our Air, and were waiting for the Gravity. We only picked up the Air because of the current lease rates.

After driving it for a week l'm going to have a hard time letting it go however.

 

[manitou202]

The only hot truck is the Rivian ( for good reason ). I guess you could include the Cybertruck ,but I still don’t understand what that vehicle is besides a weird anvil shaped monstrosity.

The R1S (SUV) is the bulk of their volume now. Their R1T (truck) sales have slowed down. You can buy one from inventory now. I can't imagine there is a massive market for $80k-$100k electric pickup trucks.

The Gravity should easily outsell the Air by 4:1 if not more. But that could mean combined annual sales of the Gravity and Air around 25k - 30k units. No idea if that will work for Lucid financially.

 

[Crimson]

I think it's important to see a comparison to what many would consider competitors to the Air across the same time period of Q3 2023 in the U.S. I found some figures below but if they are wrong, feel free to correct me.

Porsche Taycan	2,050
Lucid Air	1,457*
Mercedes-Benz EQS	1,100
Audi e-Tron GT	638

* Includes deliveries to Canada and Europe as Lucid doesn't share strictly share U.S. sales and delivery information.

To me, it looks like the Air is in-line with its competitors, assuming that deliveries to Canada and Europe were on the low-end. I wanted to include data on the i7 and Model S, but BMW and Tesla both aggregate them in with other vehicles they have (for BMW, they lump everything into "7 Series" and Tesla lumps the Model S and Model X together). Really, the story here is that full-size sedans just don't sell well in the U.S. anymore and the waning of EV sales just contributes further to that. This also just reinforces the fact that the Gravity and the future mid-size offerings will be what will control the outlook of the company. The Air, however, holds its own just fine it the segment it was meant to compete in.

Do we think that the recently launch of the Pure will pick up sales? The recently price cuts and lease rates should have an impact. We weren't planning on our Air, and were waiting for the Gravity. We only picked up the Air because of the current lease rates.

After driving it for a week l'm going to have a hard time letting it go however.

I certainly think so. If I remember correctly, back when Lucid published the reservation numbers, they stated that the average transaction price for the book was around $92,000 or so, which skews it heavily towards the Pure trim. I would imagine that a majority of the Pure reservation holders are also wanting the RWD variant, mostly due to it being the lowest price.

 

[xponents]

I think it's important to see a comparison to what many would consider competitors to the Air across the same time period of Q3 2023 in the U.S. I found some figures below but if they are wrong, feel free to correct me.

Porsche Taycan	2,050
Lucid Air	1,457*
Mercedes-Benz EQS	1,100
Audi e-Tron GT	638

* Includes deliveries to Canada and Europe as Lucid doesn't share strictly share U.S. sales and delivery information.

To me, it looks like the Air is in-line with its competitors, assuming that deliveries to Canada and Europe were on the low-end. I wanted to include data on the i7 and Model S, but BMW and Tesla both aggregate them in with other vehicles they have (for BMW, they lump everything into "7 Series" and Tesla lumps the Model S and Model X together). Really, the story here is that full-size sedans just don't sell well in the U.S. anymore and the waning of EV sales just contributes further to that. This also just reinforces the fact that the Gravity and the future mid-size offerings will be what will control the outlook of the company. The Air, however, holds its own just fine it the segment it was meant to compete in.


I certainly think so. If I remember correctly, back when Lucid published the reservation numbers, they stated that the average transaction price for the book was around $92,000 or so, which skews it heavily towards the Pure trim. I would imagine that a majority of the Pure reservation holders are also wanting the RWD variant, mostly due to it being the lowest price.

In addition, sales for the EQS are so bad that they are going for 400/month leases. Ridiculous how bad the demand is. Maybe compared to the model s, the numbers are lower, however to any other competitor the lucid air is actually doing fine. Despite this, all major news want to do is report Doom!...

 

[Genghis]

In all honesty, I think some of us are genuinely worried about the future of our vehicles and are perhaps venting a little.
Not having my Lucid around would be akin to having a divorce , just slightly worse.

I was on the phone with my daughter who is at university now discussing something that had really pissed me off. It became heated to the point where she pulled that card that I need to overlook the matter because it was mistake and she's the person I love the most. I corrected her and told her things I love the most in order... 1. my Lucid, 2. my BMW, 3. then you. We both laughed with her saying "I get it Dad. I'm sorry."

Yes, I care that much on the future and longevity of the company for selfish personal reasons beyond what a marvel of automotive engineering and technology the Air is.

 

[xponents]

I was on the phone with my daughter who is at university now discussing something that had really pissed me off. It became heated to the point where she pulled that card that I need to overlook the matter because it was mistake and she's the person I love the most. I corrected her and told her things I love the most in order... 1. my Lucid, 2. my BMW, 3. then you. We both laughed with her saying "I get it Dad. I'm sorry."

Yes, I care that much on the future and longevity of the company for selfish personal reasons beyond what a marvel of automotive engineering and technology the Air is.

If Lucid were to somehow go bankrupt, it would be one of automotive's biggest tragedies and a window into what could've been. I feel if Lucid didnt show everybody with the air that major efficiency is possible, GM and other companies would be stuffing in huge packs with huge weight penalties.

 

[Halodde]

The R1S (SUV) is the bulk of their volume now. Their R1T (truck) sales have slowed down. You can buy one from inventory now. I can't imagine there is a massive market for $80k-$100k electric pickup trucks.

The Gravity should easily outsell the Air by 4:1 if not more. But that could mean combined annual sales of the Gravity and Air around 25k - 30k units. No idea if that will work for Lucid financially.

That's a really big assumption because we have no idea what price point the gravity will have, right? Or did I miss the announcement of pricing?

 

[manitou202]

That's a really big assumption because we have no idea what price point the gravity will have, right? Or did I miss the announcement of pricing?

I'm assuming it will be similar in price as the Air. Maybe a slightly premium. If the Gravity is significantly more expensive, then that could change the equation significantly.

We paid around $120k for our EQS SUV. I would gladly pay in the $110k - $130k range for a "Touring" equivalent Gravity. Lower spec in terms of range and horsepower, but with most of the other upgrades (sound system, wheels, interior, dream drive, etc).

My guess is for higher volumes they need an $80k-$110k version that competes with the R1S, Model X, iX and Volvo EX90. Seems very feasible.

 

[Tesla2.0]

Bottomline, it is just wrong time for automakers to be in luxury market now. Higher end consumers are moving towards mid-tier. The stretching segment consumers can’t get financing because higher interest rate and credit scrutiny. The better market now is in slightly used car market or lower-mid tier market. That is one of top catalysts affecting Lucid sale, Ford also has 450 days of inventory piled up for F150 Lightning. The interest rate and inflation is just hurting overall economy.