Q1 Earnings Call

[mnewber1]

Scheduled for May 5th.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1517139287556329472

 

[HC_79]

Maybe they’re got some good news to share this time . They’re not holding off the earnings call to the absolute last minute.

 

[mnewber1]

They're doing Q&A again which I suspect will result in non-important questions being upvoted again such as "Apple car???".

 

[Sandvinsd]

Scheduled for May 5th.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1517139287556329472

They need to address the current production issues and what the real delivery numbers are going to be for the year for investors.

 

[mnewber1]

They need to address the current production issues and what the real delivery numbers are going to be for the year for investors.

I think they may wait to see if supply shortages actually ease up in June like Peter said on the last call. I figure deliveries to be in the 5,000-10,000 range depending on shortages and logistic struggles.

 

[HC_79]

They need to address the current production issues and what the real delivery numbers are going to be for the year for investors.

I’m not sure how much they will cover on this. The previous earnings call said they didn’t expect improvement to happen until June this year so could use the slower production reasoning up until then. Q3 earnings may be the one where there is a forecast readjustment announced.

 

[LCIDdreams]

They're doing Q&A again which I suspect will result in non-important questions being upvoted again such as "Apple car???".

Yes, last time the silly softball questions somehow managed to be the ones that got the most “votes”. This will probably be a repeat.

Since they just revised guidance last call I would tend to agree with HC_79 that they won’t update forecast on this call.

 

[steveairgt]

Yes, last time the silly softball questions somehow managed to be the ones that got the most “votes”. This will probably be a repeat.

Since they just revised guidance last call I would tend to agree with HC_79 that they won’t update forecast on this call.

If they don’t adjust guidance and given that they probably didn’t deliver more than about 500 (I know that’s a guess at this point) this quarter how can they explain or justify such a large ramp from where we are to get to 12,000 - 14,000 for the year?

 

[hydbob]

Lucid has always been very smart to use the word produce instead of deliver.. lol

 

[LCIDdreams]

Lucid has always been very smart to use the word produce instead of deliver.. lol

Yes- their guidance was on production not delivery numbers. For Q1 I’m expecting a pretty large delta between the 2 as the process of actually getting cars in customers hands once they leave the factory seems fairly drawn out.

 

[HC_79]

We know the factory can do 30,000+ cars a year. It looks like they’re hiring for 3 shifts. If the parts issues they’re experiencing are really sorted by June then they”ll probably run the plant 24/7. 6 months to produce 15,000 cars when the factory can do 30,000 then you could argue the math adds up.

This is all betting on nothing further would delay them come June though.

 

[pacific]

Here are my thoughts on production numbers Lucid might report on 5/5.
Lucid reported 17,000 reservations as of last November (Q3 call on 11/17/2021)
My assumptions are that 30% were for GTs, of which 65% are red, white, or black, and 80% are 19" or 21".
Now, looking at the GT Batch Tracker VIN progress, it seems Lucid production had caught up all the way through late November reservations. So, that gives me a base number of 17,000.
However, that does not mean all in-production vehicles are done. My assumption is that production completion is going to be 75% by 5/5 (Q1 earnings call).
Here is the equation:
17,000 (reservations as of 11/17/21) x 0.30 (30% GTs) x .65 (65% black, red, white) x .8 (80% 19" and 21") x 0.75 (75% production done) = ~ 2,000 cars produced by 5/5/22.
Comments are welcome. Feel free to critique.

 

[mnewber1]

17,000 (reservations as of 11/17/21) x 0.30 (30% GTs) x .65 (65% black, red, white) x .8 (80% 19" and 21") x 0.75 (75% production done) = ~ 2,000 cars produced by 5/5/22.
Comments are welcome. Feel free to critique.

Given their lot has consistently had 90-200 cars in it, I am going to venture a guess they did not hit 2,000 cars produced yet. Beyond that, each trailer truck has 6-7 cars per truck, and Lucid has been struggling hard to find truck drivers for deliveries and transport, I am guessing a lot of the cars we see day over day are the same 90-200 cars.

 

[Sandvinsd]

It appears to me that they are still producing about 10 cars per day x 90 days = ~1000 cars for the quarter. We can do an over under on that number. I will go with the under.

 

[LCIDdreams]

We know this much from the Q4 Earnings call on Feb 28th:

“As of year-end 2021, this included 125 cars in customers' hands, while we produced over 400 vehicles in total as of today. And on these, over 300 have now been delivered to customers.

400+ produced (I assume this means low 400’s) in total as of 02/28. Don’t know how many produced in 2021 but obviously more than 125. Just for arguments sake and to keep things simple say 275 produced in Jan/Feb. If it has been 10 cars per day (not saying it is…I really have no idea at all) that would be 275 + 30x10 = 575 for the quarter.

 

[LCIDdreams]

My LCID stock is definitely hoping it’s more than that!

 

[pacific]

The average expected revenue for Q1 is $53.43M, which translates to ~400 GTs delivered to customers.
I expect Q1 deliveries to be in that range; specifically, between 400 and 450 cars delivered.
So, most likely they will meet or exceed the expected revenue for Q1.

Regarding the actual production number as 5/5/22, I see a lot of positive indicators that the ramp up is well under way.

 

[mnewber1]

It appears to me that they are still producing about 10 cars per day x 90 days = ~1000 cars for the quarter. We can do an over under on that number. I will go with the under.

Likely under for just Q1. I don't see them producing 700+ cars in the month of March.

 

[Sandvinsd]

I see a lot of positive indicators that the ramp up is well under way.

What indicators are you referring to? I am not seeing anything positive as I am on the front lines of the ‘production hell’ waiting for a VIN. They keep pushing the dates further out, even though they have solved the grey paint harmonization. Those of us with November order confirmations are still getting delays. I’m just not seeing a ramp, maybe though If it‘s a downhill ramp LOL. They still have supply chain issues. Not seeing an end to that, especially if Q1 was 400-450 cars.

 

[LCIDdreams]

What indicators are you referring to? I am not seeing anything positive as I am on the front lines of the ‘production hell’ waiting for a VIN. They keep pushing the dates further out, even though they have solved the grey paint harmonization. Those of us with November order confirmations are still getting delays. I’m just not seeing a ramp, maybe though If it‘s a downhill ramp LOL. They still have supply chain issues. Not seeing an end to that, especially if Q1 was 400-450 cars.

There seem to consistently be a lot of cars at delivery centers based on posts here suggesting factory output has improved to the extent that the delivery process is now having to catch-up