Q1 Earnings Call

[mnewber1]

Interesting the GT-P has "apparently" so much demand that they've slotted it in between GT Production and Touring Production. Would've been nice if they disclosed to the numbers for the GT-P

This means they can get through all 10 of the orders in June.

 

[rbbarry]

This means they can get through all 10 of the orders in June.

10?

 

[mnewber1]

10?

Joking, I don't know the amount but I can't imagine they had such high demand that it had to be made in June.

 

[LCIDdreams]

Production number for Q1: over 700
Deliveries in Q1: 360

Deliveries in April: 300
Production number in April: scampered around question

Haha- yes I noticed that.

 

[Sandvinsd]

January through March 31, 2022: 360 Deliveries
April 1, 2022 - May 1, 2022: 300 Deliveries

Ramp up.

28 of those 300 April deliveries or ~10% were confirmed on this forum, so a significant number are here.

 

[LCIDdreams]

So, to make the 12k-14k produced (not delivered) in 2022 they basically need to 2.2x each quarter- something like this:
Q1: 700+
Q2: 1540
Q3: 3388
Q4: 7453
Total: 13081

I think current factory max capacity is 34k/yr so 8.5k/Q and assume that is when they are no supply chain hold ups. Realistically I’m not sure if 7.5k will be possible in a quarter during 2022. Hard to tell how production is ramping so far in Q2 as they would only give April deliveries, not production on the call. since they exited Q2 with at least 340 cars produced but not delivered, the 300 April deliveries does not necessarily mean a significant jump in production rate…it could but it also could just be catching up on deliveries (Theoretically they could have built nothing in April and still made 300 deliveries ). Given this I think it will be a challenge to achieve the 12k-14k… maybe 10k for the year might be more realistic.

 

[Dortreo]

Yup. 360 in a quarter is a paltry 1440 for the year or only about 10% of their guidance.

Only if you assume the factory is at maximum capacity right now. Seeing as it’s capable of 2500 cars per month, I think there’s still room for ramp up. And if they can only make 1440 cars this year, I don’t see how Lucid can be a going concern.

The big question is if they can ramp up thoroughly in Q2 and get to capacity in Q3.

 

[MPawelek]

Well, They can’t exactly ramp up if parts not being available is the problem.

 

[TCGT]

So, to make the 12k-14k produced (not delivered) in 2022 they basically need to 2.2x each quarter- something like this:
Q1: 700+
Q2: 1540
Q3: 3388
Q4: 7453
Total: 13081

I think current factory max capacity is 34k/yr so 8.5k/Q and assume that is when they are no supply chain hold ups. Realistically I’m not sure if 7.5k will be possible in a quarter during 2022. Hard to tell how production is ramping so far in Q2 as they would only give April deliveries, not production on the call. since they exited Q2 with at least 340 cars produced but not delivered, the 300 April deliveries does not necessarily mean a significant jump in production rate…it could but it also could just be catching up on deliveries (Theoretically they could have built nothing in April and still made 300 deliveries ). Given this I think it will be a challenge to achieve the 12k-14k… maybe 10k for the year might be more realistic.

I think you’re logic makes sense as of now

So, to make the 12k-14k produced (not delivered) in 2022 they basically need to 2.2x each quarter- something like this:
Q1: 700+
Q2: 1540
Q3: 3388
Q4: 7453
Total: 13081

I think current factory max capacity is 34k/yr so 8.5k/Q and assume that is when they are no supply chain hold ups. Realistically I’m not sure if 7.5k will be possible in a quarter during 2022. Hard to tell how production is ramping so far in Q2 as they would only give April deliveries, not production on the call. since they exited Q2 with at least 340 cars produced but not delivered, the 300 April deliveries does not necessarily mean a significant jump in production rate…it could but it also could just be catching up on deliveries (Theoretically they could have built nothing in April and still made 300 deliveries ). Given this I think it will be a challenge to achieve the 12k-14k… maybe 10k for the year might be more realistic.

Nothing wrong with your logic. I think it is a good assessment as of now, though we obviously don’t have the info to know where they are on their progress in ramping up (nor on the particular supply chain challenges they face). So, I would say you’ve made one of the better guesses, but given their resources I still wouldn’t bet against them.

 

[joec]

So, to make the 12k-14k produced (not delivered) in 2022 they basically need to 2.2x each quarter- something like this:
Q1: 700+
Q2: 1540
Q3: 3388
Q4: 7453
Total: 13081

I think current factory max capacity is 34k/yr so 8.5k/Q and assume that is when they are no supply chain hold ups. Realistically I’m not sure if 7.5k will be possible in a quarter during 2022. Hard to tell how production is ramping so far in Q2 as they would only give April deliveries, not production on the call. since they exited Q2 with at least 340 cars produced but not delivered, the 300 April deliveries does not necessarily mean a significant jump in production rate…it could but it also could just be catching up on deliveries (Theoretically they could have built nothing in April and still made 300 deliveries ). Given this I think it will be a challenge to achieve the 12k-14k… maybe 10k for the year might be more realistic.

Yeah, if you’re going to miss 14k, you want to say that in October / November, not May, as long as there’s still a chance.

I don’t doubt they could get to 10k, at least. But if they could presumably hit 11 or 12, why take a massive stock hit now? Have to spread any bad news out as much as you can.

 

[Luci]

Also hard to ramp up with lack of employees. I note there are 70 pages of job postings on their website. eeek! Record unemployement in the US is going to make it difficult to fill the gap.