Speculation Lucid's Q1 2024 Results Analysis

[BS8899]

Yes, in terms of SUVs, most of the Japanese and Korean players are in the 100k units/yr range. However, these numbers include both 5 and 7 passenger SUVs. And the ASP on these ICE SUVs are between $40,000 to $60,000. I used to own a Lexus RX450h, the top-of-the-line RX when I bought it (2017 Model). I trade it in for my R1S.

The Lexus RX is an excellent vehicle. I had ZERO problem with in in my 6 years of ownership. It had 360 degree view, HA, Adaptive Cruise, etc. etc.. Pretty much what my 2012 Lucid Air has today! No, it didn't have FSD!

To make the ICE to EV SUV conversion en mass, the economic gap needs to be narrowed. That, I think is what Rivian is focusing on. As mentioned by others, Rivian is switching to internally designed drive trains, streamlining wiring harnesses to reduce weight and cost, squeezing out more efficiencies "a-tenth-of-a-kWh" at a time, etc.. That said, you've also seen Rivian went from long-reservation and delivery times to now you can shop online for inventory vehicles that can be delivered within 1 week. If indeed there is a massive conversion from ICE SUVs to EV SUVs because it is so darn compelling and the cost difference be damned, Rivian will still be flooded with back orders.

I don't think there is any mystery here. It is economics. EV conversion needs to get much closer to existing ICE offerings before we see the conversion momentum. Again, "Reality, what a concept!"

I should also add:

> Range Rover's SUV sales in the US drooped precipitously in the last couple of years. Yes, there is ICE to EV SUV conversion, as long as the "Economic Gradient" is favorable. This is akin to the first-law of thermodynamics!

 

[michel]

However, I think we can all agree that their delaying of the Pure, whether forced or not, harmed them. There was a good amount of people who went to other competitors, or people who just cancelled due to the long wait.

I had a Pure reservation, and canceled it before the IRA took effect. Didn't want to risk not getting the federal tax credit (Pure is both above the threshold for pricing and our household income is also too high).

Ended up with a Kia EV6 since I could lock in an order in time and it arrived one month later.

Had the Pure been in production mid 2022 I would be driving it now!

 

[illopp00]

(And ironically, while the Air is continuing to grow in sales, the Model S is declining. Tesla sold 13k Model S/X's last quarter, and a favorable extrapolation would mean about 6k Model S's sold.)

I think its more like 8K Model X and 4K Model S

 

[illopp00]

Lol, yes throw in partnership with Nvidia somewhere too! Of course another CEO will immediately threaten to sue you because AI cars was his idea

I thought the software already uses NVDIA? https://lucidmotors.com/media-room/lucid-announces-dreamdrive-nvidia/

 

[MJAir23TheGoat]

Market might be turning for these 3 EV over the remainder of 2024 ^^^
RIVN up $6 share last 3 months
LCID up .70 last 3 months and Gravity coming
TSLA on a massive run up over $100 last 3 months

 

[BS8899]

I should also add:

> Range Rover's SUV sales in the US drooped precipitously in the last couple of years. Yes, there is ICE to EV SUV conversion, as long as the "Economic Gradient" is favorable. This is akin to the first-law of thermodynamics!

This is what a $40k-$45k 3 row ICE SUV looks like.

2024 Santa Fe | The Adventurous Compact SUV | Hyundai USA

The 2024 Santa Fe compact SUV features a wider, aggressive front grille, digital cluster, available HTRAC AWD and up to 271 hp. Build one at Hyundai USA.

www.hyundaiusa.com

This is what's making up the bulk of 100k+ unit per year per manufacturer amongst Toyota/Lexus/Honda/Hyundai etc..


You are not going to convert much of this market if you are pushing a $65k-$85k EV-SUV. Just ask Range Rover.

Significant cost and price movements are necessary to move the needle. Perhaps the VW/Rivian alliance can drive it in the right direction.

I'd caution our affluent EV devotees (the "let them eat cake" crowd) not to take it for granted there will be a strong movement to convert to an EV-SUV at almost 2X the cost of the "economics center-of-gravity" (no pun intended) of an ICE SUV. It won't happen!

 

[Knucklehead]

That per car loss is a hugely misleading figure, if that is what you are referring to. I am 99.9 percent sure that the cars itself make a profit, but the method people use to get these numbers involves dividing the total loss by the amount of cars made. This is misleading as it does not account for development and other expenses.

It's not misleading at all.

How much does each car produced contribute to cash flow? It isn't hard to calculate. There is the labor needed to build it, the cost of the parts, the cost of utilities, support personnel (such as engineering) and you are either generating cash or burning it. Rivian had been burning cash for every Gen1 produced. What about Lucid?

I am not taking about capital expenses and depreciation. And you cannot be 99.9% sure unless you have actual data to back it up. Do you?

 

[Adnillien]

Without access to internal finances, we can only estimate the contribution margin. My best estimate for this is gross profit less depreciation and inventory impairment. It is trending up but is still negative.

 

[Knucklehead]

Without access to internal finances, we can only estimate the contribution margin. My best estimate for this is gross profit less depreciation and inventory impairment. It is trending up but is still negative.



View attachment 21723

That seems like a very reasonable way to calculate it. Thanks!

 

[Lucken]

Oh well, looks like the euphoria is on hold. Shares down about 10% as of 9:45 this morning.

 

[Buffalo Bob]

Seems to happen pretty much every time when sophisticated shorts are in the game and volume drops, but that doesn't necessarily mean the downward push will be sustainable.

 

[xponents]

Oh well, looks like the euphoria is on hold. Shares down about 10% as of 9:45 this morning.

I mean, sure, but you can also look at it this way...