Speculation Lucid's Q1 2024 Results Analysis

[Rogue]

Ummm, is that good or bad?!

Excellent news. Tooling the lines for Gravity maybe. There were at least a hundred at the Roswell Service Center, so maybe they have figured out transportation to the different Lucid centers across the country to keep cars out of the Arizona heat for as little as possible.

 

[Adnillien]

Excellent news. Tooling the lines for Gravity maybe. There were at least a hundred at the Roswell Service Center, so maybe they have figured out transportation to the different Lucid centers across the country to keep cars out of the Arizona heat for as little as possible.

Yes looking at the overall production versus deliveries, there is still inventory. It is just not at the factory. Lucid wants to make it faster for buyers to get cars so the cars have been moved to be near the service centers and studios.

 

[BS8899]

Yes looking at the overall production versus deliveries, there is still inventory. It is just not at the factory. Lucid wants to make it faster for buyers to get cars so the cars have been moved to be near the service centers and studios.

I agree with your deductions. Also, per Lucid, they are in the process of re-tooling or Gravity. If Gravity is on schedule, we should see Gravity rolling out of the Casa Grande factory by Q4.

I wonder if the drone guy monitoring Lucid's Casa Grande new car lot is still active

 

[SSO]

this is not an analysis. This is a bunch of personal opinions put together by ChatGPT.

Sorry but the number are what they are.

 

[SSO]

The Lucid Studio article nails my experience at their Oakbrook Illinois location-“masterclass in ambivalence.”
Countless unreturned or returned with no answer to questions phone calls, emails and txt was incredible.
My colleague who I convinced to buy an Air had a near identical experience with a different sales person at the same location so not an isolated issue.
Without our persistence nothing would have happened.

I ran into Peter Rawlinson at the FT Car Summit in London and mentioned my Lucid Studio experience, To his credit, he seemed generally quite concerned, and asked for more details on it.

 

[Adnillien]

I agree with your deductions. Also, per Lucid, they are in the process of re-tooling or Gravity. If Gravity is on schedule, we should see Gravity rolling out of the Casa Grande factory by Q4.

I wonder if the drone guy monitoring Lucid's Casa Grande new car lot is still active

I was thinking about doing another flyover in the next couple of weeks to look for Gravity.

 

[Leftlane]

That 150,000 annual production number for the new facilities is totally meaningless. If Lucid only sells 8,000 Gravity, it will be what sinks the company. They need to figure out how to get $60k versions out ASAP and not be stuck trying to sell only $120k dream editions if they want to get any mass appeal. It’s like saying I have the capacity of doing 150,000 sit-ups a year, but last year I did one. It isn’t tethered to any business reality for a company that sold 9k cars in their best year.

 

[BS8899]

I was thinking about doing another flyover in the next couple of weeks to look for Gravity.

You are our man...eye in the sky!

 

[BS8899]

That 150,000 annual production number for the new facilities is totally meaningless. If Lucid only sells 8,000 Gravity, it will be what sinks the company. They need to figure out how to get $60k versions out ASAP and not be stuck trying to sell only $120k dream editions if they want to get any mass appeal. It’s like saying I have the capacity of doing 150,000 sit-ups a year, but last year I did one. It isn’t tethered to any business reality for a company that sold 9k cars in their best year.

I agree with the basis of your argument. It is chilling to me that Lucid was boasting about factory expansion in the face of a lack of sales. A related question is how big is the luxury sedan market. They should look at MB and BMW's historical data. It is unlikely Lucid can take more than 15-20% of that market.

If Lucid's future viability and growth are mostly Gravity-dependent, realistically, that's not a $80k+ market. I think Rivian and Hyundai will make the EV SUV market mostly a $45k-65k battleground.

 

[hydbob]

I agree with the basis of your argument. It is chilling to me that Lucid was boasting about factory expansion in the face of a lack of sales. A related question is how big is the luxury sedan market. They should look at MB and BMW's historical data. It is unlikely Lucid can take more than 15-20% of that market.

If Lucid's future viability and growth are mostly Gravity-dependent, realistically, that's not a $80k+ market. I think Rivian and Hyundai will make the EV SUV market mostly a $45k-65k battleground.

The factory growth and expansion was never for the Air or Gravity, it has always been for the midsize. Lucid/Peter has consistently said that the factory has been designed and setup for the midsize, not sure why everyone latches onto it being for the Air/Gravity. It just means that there should be no delay in production ramp when midsize is ready to build. Not to mention, that getting a factory built in KSA was most likely a requirement for funding from the PIF, just like the Air being produced first was a requirement. Rivian put the brakes on the Georgia factory expansion because they were burning cash, whereas PIF was like...burn all you want, this is what we require of you and it's all our money anyways, so just do it.

 

[AlignTrex]

The factory growth and expansion was never for the Air or Gravity, it has always been for the midsize. Lucid/Peter has consistently said that the factory has been designed and setup for the midsize, not sure why everyone latches onto it being for the Air/Gravity. It just means that there should be no delay in production ramp when midsize is ready to build. Not to mention, that getting a factory built in KSA was most likely a requirement for funding from the PIF, just like the Air being produced first was a requirement. Rivian put the brakes on the Georgia factory expansion because they were burning cash, whereas PIF was like...burn all you want, this is what we require of you and it's all our money anyways, so just do it.

Wow! That is very concerning. Path to bankruptcy.

 

[Bobby]

It seems all of the armchair CEOs have gathered in this thread.

 

[Leftlane]

Rather than just fanboys? Henrik Fisker was a CEO too.

 

[hydbob]

Wow! That is very concerning. Path to bankruptcy.

It's actually the opposite! Path to more funding!

 

[Pragmatic]

It's actually the opposite! Path to more funding!

It is until it it isn't.

 

[xponents]

It is until it it isn't.

What does that even mean in this context?

 

[hydbob]

It is until it it isn't.

Isn't that the way for everything?

 

[Lucken]

It seems all of the armchair CEOs have gathered in this thread.

Or is it the ‘shorties’…not in stature.

 

[scal_air]

Or is it the ‘shorties’…not in stature.

He says the quiet part out loud

 

[scal_air]

Sorry but the number are what they are.

Yes but it’s the conclusions you draw from the numbers that may differ