Speculation Lucid's Q1 2024 Results Analysis

[HariK]

That 150,000 annual production number for the new facilities is totally meaningless. If Lucid only sells 8,000 Gravity, it will be what sinks the company. They need to figure out how to get $60k versions out ASAP and not be stuck trying to sell only $120k dream editions if they want to get any mass appeal. It’s like saying I have the capacity of doing 150,000 sit-ups a year, but last year I did one. It isn’t tethered to any business reality for a company that sold 9k cars in their best year.

60k version of gravity? I don't think that the cheapest Gravity will be cheaper than the cheapest AWD Air because there is no RWD Gravity that I know of. 60k version needs to be a 5 seater mid size.

 

[borski]

It is until it it isn't.

Okay, Yoda. But also, it is while it is?

 

[xponents]

Okay, Yoda. But also, it is while it is?

You guys are confusing me way too much! What @hydbob said was correct in every way, besides.

 

[SSO]

Yes but it’s the conclusions you draw from the numbers that may differ

True but I look at them the same way as I do Lotus, Aston Martin, Rivian, Ferrari, Porsche, etc when I do those reports.

 

[Leftlane]

60k version of gravity? I don't think that the cheapest Gravity will be cheaper than the cheapest AWD Air because there is no RWD Gravity that I know of. 60k version needs to be a 5 seater mid size.

Okay I won’t disagree - then why not bring that one out first? Gravity will have to sell multitudes better than Air just to even get to the possibility of the midsize at a lower price point. I guess we’ll see if they can do it, but it’s only my opinion that pricing will be too high to get any volume.

 

[hydbob]

Okay I won’t disagree - then why not bring that one out first? Gravity will have to sell multitudes better than Air just to even get to the possibility of the midsize at a lower price point. I guess we’ll see if they can do it, but it’s only my opinion that pricing will be too high to get any volume.

My guess is that the higher trims will sell every single one they can produce in the first few months regardless. Why sell a base model when you can be making an extra $20k/vehicle sold.

 

[SDHacker]

I agree with your deductions. Also, per Lucid, they are in the process of re-tooling or Gravity. If Gravity is on schedule, we should see Gravity rolling out of the Casa Grande factory by Q4.

I wonder if the drone guy monitoring Lucid's Casa Grande new car lot is still active

Didn’t the drone guy post he would be inactive due to being “confined” for a while?

 

[xponents]

My guess is that the higher trims will sell every single one they can produce in the first few months regardless. Why sell a base model when you can be making an extra $20k/vehicle sold.

While you are definitely not wrong, it's important to be careful regarding this thinking. With the Air, Lucid also sold every GT it made (during 2022). However, I think we can all agree that their delaying of the Pure, whether forced or not, harmed them. There was a good amount of people who went to other competitors, or people who just cancelled due to the long wait. Its also not right to only focus on the lower trims and leave GT owners waiting, though. I would assume that Lucid would try to make the most of its increased production capacity by building all trims of the Gravity at once; not only is this possible, it is also beneficial for them in pretty much every way I can think of.

 

[SDHacker]

Okay I won’t disagree - then why not bring that one out first? Gravity will have to sell multitudes better than Air just to even get to the possibility of the midsize at a lower price point. I guess we’ll see if they can do it, but it’s only my opinion that pricing will be too high to get any volume.

Because you want to grab all the early adopters willing to pay a premium even though their preferred model is closer to the base…like my brother ordering a founders series cybertruck even though he only needs a base model because he doesn’t want to wait for a base model. There are people on this forum that ended up getting an agt because they didn’t want to wait for other trims to come out. This question keeps coming up but there’s a reason almost all introductory models are the high end ones

 

[Leftlane]

I get that, but Lucid had zero other models to offer other than the highest priced Airs. Tesla has plenty of other cars that cost a lot less that outsell the CT 500-1, so they aren’t missing those sales. Lucid misses everyone that doesn’t want to spend $100k+ on a car from a new manufacturer with iffy prospects. So the early adopters will pay up - but there aren’t enough of them (clearly) choosing Lucid. CT had I think 1 million + reservations. I would agree if Lucid started shooting the lights out when they lowered prices and offered Pure at sub 70k - but where are the sales?

 

[Leftlane]

BTW, this has nothing to do with the quality of what Lucid makes or their brilliance in efficiency. But if not enough people know or care….

 

[borski]

I guess we’ll see if they can do it, but it’s only my opinion that pricing will be too high to get any volume.

You're almost certainly right that the Gravity won't 'save the company,' so to speak, but it should sell way way better than the Air, for lots of reasons.

(1) It's an SUV. People like them more, even if I cannot understand why.
(2) Lucid is no longer a totally unknown brand. It has won a lot of awards, made a lot of headway in generating PR, etc. It's not Porsche, and many still don't know what Lucid is, but it's way better than before the Air.
(3) In addition to the PR benefits from (2), there is going to be less concern over whether Lucid will stay alive, the longer it continues to exist. If Lucid has 3-4 models on the sales floor (and on the roads), it's going to be less scary for someone new to the brand to purchase.
(4) In addition to (2) and (3), Lucid also has their pick of suppliers to choose from now, because they are no longer an unknown. This means a much lower likelihood of "gremlins" that pop up on one car and not another, less chance of bad parts staying that way forever, and so on.
(5) Lastly, I think it's only a fool that thinks the Gravity 'saves' Lucid. In the end, what does that is the somewhat lower-cost midsize. That's what people want to buy, and that's why Tesla was 'saved' by the Y. But Lucid has to get there, and it's a lot easier to get there this way, especially if the PIF is on board for the long term, which it sounds like they very much are.

So yeah - I agree that it will not be some amazing trim where they suddenly sell 400,000 vehicles in a year. But that's not the goal.

 

[HariK]

Okay I won’t disagree - then why not bring that one out first? Gravity will have to sell multitudes better than Air just to even get to the possibility of the midsize at a lower price point. I guess we’ll see if they can do it, but it’s only my opinion that pricing will be too high to get any volume.

I agree. Gravity will have low volumes

 

[hydbob]

While you are definitely not wrong, it's important to be careful regarding this thinking. With the Air, Lucid also sold every GT it made (during 2022). However, I think we can all agree that their delaying of the Pure, whether forced or not, harmed them. There was a good amount of people who went to other competitors, or people who just cancelled due to the long wait. Its also not right to only focus on the lower trims and leave GT owners waiting, though. I would assume that Lucid would try to make the most of its increased production capacity by building all trims of the Gravity at once; not only is this possible, it is also beneficial for them in pretty much every way I can think of.

I also know that Lucid is not releasing the Gravity in the same way they did the Air. I fully expect high end trims first followed very quickly with lower trim levels. They know what mistakes they made with ordering and reservations and trim levels, so will not be repeating the same for Gravity.

 

[borski]

I also know that Lucid is not releasing the Gravity in the same way they did the Air. I fully expect high end trims first followed very quickly with lower trim levels. They know what mistakes they made with ordering and reservations and trim levels, so will not be repeating the same for Gravity.

Yup, completely agreed. I'm not saying it's gonna be perfect; there will certainly be new mistakes, errors, annoyances, and so on. It's their second at-bat, so they're bound to make some more (but different) mistakes.

But I'd be very very surprised if any of the same ones were made as with the Air's process.

 

[BS8899]

Didn’t the drone guy post he would be inactive due to being “confined” for a while?

Haven't heard that.

But, we have our own "Top Gun" in @Adnillien.

 

[WildRide47]

I also know that Lucid is not releasing the Gravity in the same way they did the Air. I fully expect high end trims first followed very quickly with lower trim levels. They know what mistakes they made with ordering and reservations and trim levels, so will not be repeating the same for Gravity.

I believe that Lucid actually lost some sales of the DE by restricting it to 520. I would have ordered an DE, but I did not care for the color choice of white, black and gold. When they added Zenith Red, I changed my GT order to a Dream, was put on a waiting list but did not make the cut.

I am not unhappy as the GT is fast enough, but I believe they lost additional sales and receiving an additional 30K for selling more Dreams. I don't believe others would have cancelled their Dream orders if they extended the Dream to whoever wanted one.

 

[Batteryman]

Wow! That is very concerning. Path to bankruptcy.

Bankruptcy only occurs if you can’t get funding, do you really think PIF will sabotage their one and only factory in Saudi? It’s a long term plan, diversification, jobs for Saudi citizens- I’m flabbergasted some people just don’t think!

 

[Batteryman]

I agree with the basis of your argument. It is chilling to me that Lucid was boasting about factory expansion in the face of a lack of sales. A related question is how big is the luxury sedan market. They should look at MB and BMW's historical data. It is unlikely Lucid can take more than 15-20% of that market.

If Lucid's future viability and growth are mostly Gravity-dependent, realistically, that's not a $80k+ market. I think Rivian and Hyundai will make the EV SUV market mostly a $45k-65k battleground.

Wrong, you create buzz, you come out with your luxury models first. Do you really think Lucid could have competed with the Model Y if a midsize was their first vehicle. I’m getting fed up with armchair CEO’s on this forum!

 

[BS8899]

Wrong, you create buzz, you come out with your luxury models first. Do you really think Lucid could have competed with the Model Y if a midsize was their first vehicle. I’m getting fed up with armchair CEO’s on this forum!

I never said anything about whether to come out with the Luxury model first (or not). Those were your words, not mine.

I have no interest in debating you.

Time will tell....to quote the late Robin Williams, "Reality! What a concept!". Reality will be upon us in 2025!