LCID just went below $8

[HariK]

What Lucid needs to do is:
1. Better than 7k units sold in 22,
2. Clear plan to meet the existing demand
3. Announcement of a mid size model in 2024 to qualify for SUV tax credit and delay gravity to 25.
4. Ideal guidance should be like Q1 6k, Q2 8k, Q3 10k, Q4 13k.

 

[noobzilla]

What Lucid needs to do is:
1. Better than 7k units sold in 22,
2. Clear plan to meet the existing demand
3. Announcement of a mid size model in 2024 to qualify for SUV tax credit and delay gravity to 25.
4. Ideal guidance should be like Q1 6k, Q2 8k, Q3 10k, Q4 13k.

I was thinking of a small SUV but idk how they will price it below $75k since a very basic Pure is already way over that amount.

Shorter range, smaller than Air Pure but taller?

 

[joec]

I know SUVs are all the rage. But it's worth noting Tesla sells a boatload of Model 3 still. More than enough to keep Lucid afloat. And it would be way easier to keep costs down and efficiency high for a sedan than a small SUV. They'd be able to get a sedan out the door faster, in other words, at the right price point and specs. If you ask me, that's how I'd do it.

I think the "Model Y competitor" will happen. But I would not be surprised if they went with a small sedan first.

 

[AZLucidGuy]

Getting tempting to grab some. Anyone planning to add more or start? Short % is quite high too so there's potential short squeeze when any good revenue numbers come in.

Added 400 today...
200 at $8.09
200 at $7.95
Averaging down. Remember the PIPE offering price was $15. A lot of smart money paid that before a single car was delivered and AMP-1 had not expanded.

 

[AZLucidGuy]

You know I'm not a trader or an analyst, but I keep thinking about AAPL at these price levels. For me LCID seemed like the perfect target for Apple if it was ever really serious about getting into the EV game. Tech is industry leading, styling fits the Apple motif, and at a market cap of just under $14B Apple could acquire them at a 20% premium to market with cash on hand. For me Apple has done a fantastic job in their markets but have fairly limited forward growth. Acquiring Lucid would give them a great high growth opportunity, and also have the bonus side effect of quieting Mr. Musk.

But anyway, I took the chance to average down my small holding to $12.80 at the recent price points. I think the production signs are looking good. Hopefully will get product into Europe (and specifically Norway) early next year.

AAPL can want to acquire LCID all day. Unless the Saudi PIF sells, there would be no deal. I doubt the PIF will part with Lucid. Apple had a chance to aquire TSLA in 2017 when Elon was begging them to and the would not return Elon's phone calls.

 

[Impatient7536]

maybe it just comes down to investors confidence in their financial runway. regardless of all the improvements we've seen over the past 6 months, they're still on track to run out of cash by mid 2023, according to their latest earnings report. so when you combine that with the current negative macroeconomic headwind, maybe it's not surprising that the stock price is struggling, and many will consider these positive improvements as secondary.

positive note is, there were announcements for more stock offering ($600 million and $900 million), along with the $1 billion line of credit. that's another $2.5 billion. lucid's Q3 cash burn rate was $859 million, and $2.8 billion past 4 quarters, so who knows

personally, i think the PIF won't let lucid fail. they're too proud and have too much to prove. therefore, they'll do what they do best, making it rain.

anyone who's familiar with tesla's journey can chime in here, so we can draw parallels? how many times did they get external funding (grants, stock offering, line of credit, etc)? how did their production numbers, ramp ups, struggles, etc, line up with those cash infusions and repayment history?

 

[borski]

maybe it just comes down to investors confidence in their financial runway. regardless of all the improvements we've seen over the past 6 months, they're still on track to run out of cash by mid 2023, according to their latest earnings report. so when you combine that with the current negative macroeconomic headwind, maybe it's not surprising that the stock price is struggling, and many will consider these positive improvements as secondary.

positive note is, there were announcements for more stock offering ($600 million and $900 million), along with the $1 billion line of credit. that's another $2.5 billion. lucid's Q3 cash burn rate was $859 million, and $2.8 billion past 4 quarters, so who knows

personally, i think the PIF won't let lucid fail. they're too proud and have too much to prove. therefore, they'll do what they do best, making it rain.

anyone who's familiar with tesla's journey can chime in here, so we can draw parallels? how many times did they get external funding (grants, stock offering, line of credit, etc)? how did their production numbers, ramp ups, struggles, etc, line up with those cash infusions and repayment history?

Musk's Series A investment round of US$7.5 million in February 2004 included Compass Technology Partners and SDL Ventures, as well as many private investors.[20] In February 2005, Musk led Tesla's Series B US$13 million investment round which added Valor Equity Partners to the funding team.[20]Musk co-led the third, US$40 million round in May 2006 along with Technology Partners.

Musk led the fourth round in May 2008 which added another US$40,167,530 in debt financing, and brought the total investments to over US$100 million through private financing.

In August 2007, Michael Marks was brought in as interim CEO, and in December 2007, Ze'ev Drori became CEO and President.[24] In January 2008, Tesla fired several key personnel who had been involved from the inception after a performance review by the new CEO.[26] According to Musk, Tesla was forced to reduce the company workforce by about 10% to lower its burn rate, which was out of control in 2007.[27] In May 2008, "The Truth About Cars" website launched a "Tesla Death Watch", as Tesla needed another round of financing to survive. In October 2008, Musk succeeded Drori as CEO and fired 25% of Tesla employees.[24] Drori became vice-chairman, but then left the company in December 2008. In December a fifth round of investment turned into debt financing and added another US$40 million, avoiding bankruptcy.[28][29]

By January 2009, Tesla had raised US$187 millionand delivered 147 cars. Musk had contributed US$70 million of his own money to the company.[27]On May 19, 2009, Germany's Daimler AG, maker of Mercedes-Benz, acquired an equity stake of less than 10% of Tesla for a reported US$50 million.[30]According to Musk, the Daimler investment saved Tesla.[31] In July 2009, Daimler announced that Abu Dhabi's Aabar Investments bought 40% of Daimler's interest in Tesla.[32]

In June 2009 Tesla was approved to receive US$465 million in interest-bearing loans from the United States Department of Energy. The funding, part of the US$8 billion Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing Loan Program, supported engineering and production of the Model S sedan, as well as the development of commercial powertrain technology.

In September 2009, Tesla announced a US$82.5 million round to accelerate Tesla's retail expansion.[38] Daimler participated in the round to maintain equity ownership from its initial investment.

All from Tesla’s Wikipedia article: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Tesla,_Inc.

There were a lot of funding rounds. I’m not too worried about Lucid.

 

[Impatient7536]

damn, if tesla had that many lifelines with different creditors and managed to scrap by, lucid having one major global sugar daddy is probably in a better position comparatively.

on another note, didn't know tesla had that many funding rounds before IPO. these dilution events kind of explain elon's 20% tesla ownership. thanks!

 

[HC_79]

damn, if tesla had that many lifelines with different creditors and managed to scrap by, lucid having one major global sugar daddy is probably in a better position comparatively.

on another note, didn't know tesla had that many funding rounds before IPO. these dilution events kind of explain elon's 20% tesla ownership. thanks!

I also don't think a bunch of major banks would give Lucid a $1 billion line of credit if they thought they were going to fail in 6 to 12 months

 

[Impatient7536]

I also don't think a bunch of major banks would give Lucid a $1 billion line of credit if they thought they were going to fail in 6 to 12 months

banks loaned elon 13 billion for twitter, and it currently looks like a bankruptcy speedrun any% WR contender.

but jokes aside, i agree with you.

 

[SubSailor]

My guts tell me it's already bottomed or near bottom but my guts had been wrong many times before lol. I'm just debating now whether to sell some AXSM to get some LCID.

Dollar weakening some but market bottom still probably in 1Q23

 

[Grnr92663]

This is just the beginning of Lucid - yet people treat it as it's at the end of the runway. The market swing both ways - in irrational ways.

Currently, many stocks that hit 52week high are those that were jokers & rejected by the market just a year or two ago, due to lack of growth or no long term TAM potential. So go figure ( Harley Davision HOG, Snap-on SNA, CampbellSoup CPB, CocaCola KO, IBM...).

At one time, WallStreet predicted that INTC and IBM would destroy AMD and drove it from $40 to .... less than $2 !!! (2015). I bought at $15-20 and saw my ego destroyed - but stick with the stock because I believe in Lisa and what the company was making. Sold when it rebounded to $50, and witnessed it .... TRIPLE to $150 !!

Even in the early days, TSLA faced near-death many times.

Short term, stock price has nothing to do with biz fundamental (witness all of those are 52k high as I listed above). Long term, companies with superior tech & products always win !

Btw, it's unlikely that the Saudi & Dubai will sell any investment for few $Billions gain & premium. They're in investment for a long run. See how Qatar spent $220B on the WorldCup with expected rev of $15B. The rest is to invest for the future. They have more $$ in their pocket than ever due to to oil ...

 

[hydbob]

I also don't think a bunch of major banks would give Lucid a $1 billion line of credit if they thought they were going to fail in 6 to 12 months

FTX...

 

[Grnr92663]

Musk's Series A investment round of US$7.5 million in February 2004 included Compass Technology Partners and SDL Ventures, as well as many private investors.[20] In February 2005, Musk led Tesla's Series B US$13 million investment round which added Valor Equity Partners to the funding team.[20]Musk co-led the third, US$40 million round in May 2006 along with Technology Partners.

Musk led the fourth round in May 2008 which added another US$40,167,530 in debt financing, and brought the total investments to over US$100 million through private financing.

In August 2007, Michael Marks was brought in as interim CEO, and in December 2007, Ze'ev Drori became CEO and President.[24] In January 2008, Tesla fired several key personnel who had been involved from the inception after a performance review by the new CEO.[26] According to Musk, Tesla was forced to reduce the company workforce by about 10% to lower its burn rate, which was out of control in 2007.[27] In May 2008, "The Truth About Cars" website launched a "Tesla Death Watch", as Tesla needed another round of financing to survive. In October 2008, Musk succeeded Drori as CEO and fired 25% of Tesla employees.[24] Drori became vice-chairman, but then left the company in December 2008. In December a fifth round of investment turned into debt financing and added another US$40 million, avoiding bankruptcy.[28][29]

By January 2009, Tesla had raised US$187 millionand delivered 147 cars. Musk had contributed US$70 million of his own money to the company.[27]On May 19, 2009, Germany's Daimler AG, maker of Mercedes-Benz, acquired an equity stake of less than 10% of Tesla for a reported US$50 million.[30]According to Musk, the Daimler investment saved Tesla.[31] In July 2009, Daimler announced that Abu Dhabi's Aabar Investments bought 40% of Daimler's interest in Tesla.[32]

In June 2009 Tesla was approved to receive US$465 million in interest-bearing loans from the United States Department of Energy. The funding, part of the US$8 billion Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing Loan Program, supported engineering and production of the Model S sedan, as well as the development of commercial powertrain technology.

In September 2009, Tesla announced a US$82.5 million round to accelerate Tesla's retail expansion.[38] Daimler participated in the round to maintain equity ownership from its initial investment.

All from Tesla’s Wikipedia article: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Tesla,_Inc.

There were a lot of funding rounds. I’m not too worried about Lucid.

It was Daimler and Toyota that saved Tesla (along with Obama), just as Bill Gates saved Apple. Most folks now never witness the days when AAPL, TSLA, AMD, NVDA, NEE got destroyed by FUD or cling on for their dear life ...

 

[borski]

FTX...

LOL

 

[DJL]

I don't think it's bottomed. I doubt the market will be happy with the Q4 results. Lucid may produce 6000-7000 units but it looks like they're certainly not going to deliver anywhere near that number. With the number of cars sitting at the Lucid plant I suspect revenue expectations from the investors will be missed which will tank the price even more.

Boy, I sure hope you are wrong, however, quite frankly, that is my current assessment also. Lucid has been generating a history of missing its quarterly objectives and the stock is suffering because of that and the fact that they are diluting the stock to raise cash. Additionally, the stock is being devalued by the general market conditions.
They have made great strides in correcting early production issues resulting in greatly increasing monthly production numbers, quality control has been wonderfully improved, UX software has made tremendous improvements, Lucid has added new models with the Tour and Pure that are now being produced (and are even making a few deliveries of them), Lucid has today added a long term batteries agreement with Panasonic Energy, Lucid is very active with their on-going plant expansion, they have a mega-deal with the Saudis under contract, are getting ready to expand into Europe, etc, etc, etc. Such positive movement in so many areas in such a short time and the market doesn't seem to recognise all of this.
They have created a phenomenal car, one that I simply love and enjoy driving so much. However, now is also the time to show us they can put the cars in the waiting public's hands and start generating the revenue numbers their investors are expecting inorder to put the company in the black in the next few years.

 

[HariK]

I know SUVs are all the rage. But it's worth noting Tesla sells a boatload of Model 3 still. More than enough to keep Lucid afloat. And it would be way easier to keep costs down and efficiency high for a sedan than a small SUV. They'd be able to get a sedan out the door faster, in other words, at the right price point and specs. If you ask me, that's how I'd do it.

I think the "Model Y competitor" will happen. But I would not be surprised if they went with a small sedan first.

Smaller sedan needs to be less than 55k to get tax credit vs 80k for suv. I cannot see a cheaper version of pure sedan below 55k but I can see 80k suv version of pure with 350 mile range.

 

[HC_79]

banks loaned elon 13 billion for twitter, and it currently looks like a bankruptcy speedrun any% WR contender.

but jokes aside, i agree with you.

If the banks knew how stupid he was going to be they may have thought twice

 

[nevadagame]

If the banks knew how stupid he was going to be they may have thought twice

A ramp up in production in not the problem, the two elephants in the room are there is a tiny demand for 150+K sedans as there is a tiny demand for 140K suvs. Lucid has a giant parking lot of sedans and No customers for most of them. Soon they will be last years models and will not sell without substantial discounts, killing new car sales. The second elephant is the completely unprofessional comical software killing all sales except for the brave few tech savvy customers. The super low mile used market is flooded with unhappy new owners who have had enough. I’m about to take delivery (within days) but I’m under no illusion that I’m buying a well thought out operating system. Sure it’s improving slowly, but it should never have been released in its original or even current state. It’s so far from good enough that like the old fisker karma, this car will likely fail because management was arrogant and made huge and critical mistakes believing their own hype.

 

[DJL]

A ramp up in production in not the problem, the two elephants in the room are there is a tiny demand for 150+K sedans as there is a tiny demand for 140K suvs. Lucid has a giant parking lot of sedans and No customers for most of them. Soon they will be last years models and will not sell without substantial discounts, killing new car sales. The second elephant is the completely unprofessional comical software killing all sales except for the brave few tech savvy customers. The super low mile used market is flooded with unhappy new owners who have had enough. I’m about to take delivery (within days) but I’m under no illusion that I’m buying a well thought out operating system. Sure it’s improving slowly, but it should never have been released in its original or even current state. It’s so far from good enough that like the old fisker karma, this car will likely fail because management was arrogant and made huge and critical mistakes believing their own hype.

WIth the perception of the car that your shared, I would strong recommend that you save your money and cancel your order. Get something that would better meet your needs and in which you would have confidence in. For what it is worth, a recent post thread demonstrated that many actual owners love their cars and it has demonstrated to them that it is the best driving car they have ever owned. I happed to fall into that group. However, if you really believe in what you posted, I strongly urge you to not buy it and just find something else.