Tesla missed deadlines badly and it turned out ok, that is true. But what a difference a few years makes… I bought one of the early Model 3 Dual Motors, and like everyone else my delivery date slipped and slipped. But I waited — because there was no option. Nothing else in the market came close at the time: range, performance, price point, charging network, etc. Nothing even in the ballpark. So I waited, and when my number was called I looked past the terrible panel gaps, wind noise and poor paint quality and happily handed over my cash.
Today would I make the same call? When there are dozens of competent alternatives with access to the same charging network? Not a chance. Nor would I pay what I did at that time for that car. The market has moved on.
Lucid is largely trying to follow Tesla’s playbook a few years behind, but without the first mover advantage it’s hard to overstate how much harder that playbook is. Tesla’s lack of competition meant they were able to absorb huge delays, sell cars at premiums and get away with all types of issues. Lucid simply can’t do the same now that customers have alternatives.
There’s a reason that prior to Tesla you need to go back before WW2 to find another American mass-market automaker that made it. It’s hard. So hard even Apple, the largest market cap company in the world at the time, decided it couldn’t pull it off. I know better than most the challenges Lucid needs to overcome getting the Gravity into production. I also know they have little choice or margin: it’s time to execute. Or die. My money says that even Saudi’s deep pockets won’t save them as an independent brand if they don’t display rapidly improving competence.
