I’m trying to see how many AGT confirmation batches there are. I know there was a 11/2, 11/16 and 11/30. Then one in mid December. Another one, it appears was for the very late reservations, in early January. So that is five batches for all the AGTs, except for maybe the very recently ordered cars.Perhaps there were about 500 orders per batch which would amount to 2000 AGT reservations and consistent with my calculations. At two week intervals, they are expecting to produce and deliver 250 cars per week wHich is way below where they would need to be for 20k this year. They are currently delivering about 40 per week so my calculated number is still a significant increase to the current run rate.
I went through a similar calculation exercise a few months back when I first stated up on these forums to understand reservation product mix. (I play with Excel for fun. Good times.)
Going through press releases, etc., it was obvious that Lucid started with a lot of Pure reservations but based upon the ratio of incremental projected revenue and number of orders, it was clear that around summer 2021, the average value per reservation took such a significant uptick that it could only be explained by lots of AGT orders.
Because of this mid-summer bolus of AGT orders, my original calculation suggested that many of us would be waiting until Q1 to get AGT order confirmations, but they all happened a quarter early. Why? I think it’s because all the AGT orders from this summer have been from Saudi (#2 market for Lucid) and EU. But because Lucid isn’t prepared to go there just yet, US AGT orders got to jump the queue.
Bottom line: There are still a lot of AGT orders to be confirmed but they are likely for ex-US markets. (Oh, and EU confirmation emails went out this past week so I guess they’re working through those now.) Hopefully, the trend will continue, and Lucid will get to US Touring and Pure reservations before filling Saudi orders. But as the line will be set up for AGT orders and as they represent a higher profit margin, my guess is that US AGT orders will get filled then EU and Saudi next. Only then will Lucid switch to the other models.
Also, based upon production ramps, I think it’s unlikely Lucid will hit their 20K goal this year unless they can get AMP-1 up to full capacity production (which is probably in the 400 to 600 car per week range) by May/June. (Capacity is supposed to be 35K cars per year but the paint shop probably cuts that number down quite a bit.) Production ramps follow a sigmoid curve, but the flat initial part has been prolonged and supply constraints will probably blunt the rate of rise. Things could get interesting.
