Air Dream Deliveries?

[Sandvinsd]

I got there a bit differently but shows more GT and fewer T and more P (also accounting for a small(ish) number of DEs
125 DE
6250 GT
3750 T
14875 P

A hair under 96k but in the ballpark. Most of it is a guess on the breakdown of GT and T.

Yeah, I did not count any Dreams in the calculation. I was just doing a ballpark estimate to see what the most possible GT + T cars ‘could’ be in those reservations, and pointing out that, with those numbers, it is possible to deliver Pure cars and be within Lucid’s guidance. In your case there are even more Pure reservations and fewer GT + T. The more DE + GT in the Equation, the earlier the Pure production would start.

 

[idiot900]

Further to this point, here is my quick a dirty extrapolation from Lucid's statements. Since we know that GT reservations > Touring reservations, we can guess what the proportions of reservations are as a function of the number of these excess GT reservations. Given expected production of 12k-14k cars this year, I think that it's not unreasonable that most or all existing Touring reservations could be produced. That is, if they stick to this prediction.

 

[GEWC]

My delivery person in Millbrea said they got about 20 cars in.

Oh I really hope one of them is mine. I got the shipping soon/coming days email 8 days ago, but my DA has been silent.

 

[Dortreo]

Further to this point, here is my quick a dirty extrapolation from Lucid's statements. Since we know that GT reservations > Touring reservations, we can guess what the proportions of reservations are as a function of the number of these excess GT reservations. Given expected production of 12k-14k cars this year, I think that it's not unreasonable that most or all existing Touring reservations could be produced. That is, if they stick to this prediction.
View attachment 999

So a few months ago, I built out an Excel model that estimated production ramp-up and order proportion based upon serial news releases by Lucid that talked about reservation numbers and estimated income. I did this to get a rough idea of when I might receive my AGT and to play with Excel solver for fun. Because the estimated income per reservation kept increasing, it was obvious that the proportion of AGTs to Pures was also increasing.

However, I’ve given up on tracking the model further for three reasons:

1. The model depended upon making an assumption about AGT vs. Touring reservations, and there was never any guidance by Lucid on this. It created a situation with three equations and four variables, so it all became assumption-dependent. @Sandvinsd, I think you have made solid assumptions re: AGT to Touring proportions.
2. The model itself wasn’t reliable to estimate delivery times because Lucid seems to be handling ex-US production and deliveries in a different priority than US ones. The model therefore can’t fulfill its main purpose, which is to predict when my car will arrive.
3. Finally, it’s because “it is what it is.” The cars will show up when they’re ready and hopefully not too much before or after. Not a lot we can do about it.

However, I’ve been pleased with how the production model is predicting ramp-up. It’s been pretty spot on so far In terms of numbers of Airs being produced and is just based on a sigmoid curve. However, as supply issues worsen, the curve is getting flatter.

I’m happy to share my spreadsheet if you’re interested.

 

[idiot900]

I’m happy to share my spreadsheet if you’re interested.

Would be interested to see it! Will PM you.

I think of this stuff as akin to fantasy sports - trying to predict a partly random outcome of no real importance is fun. After all, in the grand scheme of things, getting our expensive cars a bit late is completely a first world problem.

 

[Charley]

I'm getting my car Wednesday. There are about 30 car at Milbrae. Most are Dreams and a couple GT's. There are 6 red ones there. My car has passed all inspections so just waiting on the transporter.

 

[SaratogaLefty]

I'm getting my car Wednesday. There are about 30 car at Milbrae. Most are Dreams and a couple GT's. There are 6 red ones there. My car has passed all inspections so just waiting on the transporter.

I think I'm picking mine up tomorrow morning, just waiting on final confirmation. Could have been tonight but the last thing I want to do is drive my new car home in rush hour traffic on 101 in the dark. Too many potholes and erratic drivers!!

 

[hmp10]

On Saturday, March 5, there were 18 cars at the Riviera Beach, FL Service Center being prepped for delivery: 15 Dreams and 3 GTs. They told me they were trying to deliver the Dreams first, but I didn't ask if that was a local decision or a corporate one. Red was the most-ordered color, and all of them had the 21" wheels.

 

[GEWC]

I think I'm picking mine up tomorrow morning, just waiting on final confirmation. Could have been tonight but the last thing I want to do is drive my new car home in rush hour traffic on 101 in the dark. Too many potholes and erratic drivers!!

The 280 is so nice and smooth up that way!

 

[Bbq9]

Oh I really hope one of them is mine. I got the shipping soon/coming days email 8 days ago, but my DA has been silent.

me too ... time to get typing / texting

 

[Bbq9]

The 280 is so nice and smooth up that way!

280 every time
way better than 101 - and invariably faster even if longer

 

[copper]

280 every time
way better than 101 - and invariably faster even if longer

So true. I live near the northern part of the 280 and refuse to take the 101 unless absolutely necessary.

 

[HC_79]

So true. I live near the northern part of the 280 and refuse to take the 101 unless absolutely necessary.

I thought the freeways were bad in SoCal. 12 months of living in the Bay Area and had multiple flats, realignments and eventually having to replace the entire set of tires due to how shoddy the roads were. Glad i'm back down in SoCal now, lol

 

[GEWC]

So true. I live near the northern part of the 280 and refuse to take the 101 unless absolutely necessary.

I thought the freeways were bad in SoCal. 12 months of living in the Bay Area and had multiple flats, realignments and eventually having to replace the entire set of tires due to how shoddy the roads were. Glad i'm back down in SoCal now, lol

I avoid it too. First time we came up here (from San Diego) to look at houses I was shocked by how bad the highways are. I take the extra time to take back roads rather than drive on the highways, where I can.

 

[Bbq9]

I thought the freeways were bad in SoCal. 12 months of living in the Bay Area and had multiple flats, realignments and eventually having to replace the entire set of tires due to how shoddy the roads were. Glad i'm back down in SoCal now, lol

Two buckled wheels in 4 years

 

[hellolucid]

You guys are making me re-think my decision to get 21" now. I live in the bay area and takes 101 every once in a while.

 

[SaratogaLefty]

You guys are making me re-think my decision to get 21" now. I live in the bay area and takes 101 every once in a while.

Like others have said whenever possible take 280. If you have to take 101, concentrate, pay attention and avoid driving it at night.

 

[Neurio]

Like others have said whenever possible take 280. If you have to take 101, concentrate, pay attention and avoid driving it at night.

And if you're down in my neck of the woods, watch out for wrong way drunk drivers on the 101. We get them more often than we should...

 

[borski]

You guys are making me re-think my decision to get 21" now. I live in the bay area and takes 101 every once in a while.

You’ll be fine. It’s not that bad. I’m from NYC originally and these are like cotton compared to NYC roads haha.

 

[Mountain Man]

You’ll be fine. It’s not that bad. I’m from NYC originally and these are like cotton compared to NYC roads haha.

I agree, the 21" wheels do not make the ride harsh. We have terrible roads in Colorado, and the Lucid DE with 21" wheels handle them better than my Tesla with 21" wheels. It is more muted, isolated and doesn't send shudders throughout the car as in the Tesla.