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"Announced CEO transition..." Rawlinson out as CEO

Adnillien said:
I have been digging into the Q4 financials and they look very good. It really makes me question if Peter was pushed out as it appears on the surface or if there are other reasons that Peter decided to step aside. Deliveries continue to ramp nicely:

View attachment 26876
The best estimate for contribution margin is gross profit less depreciation and inventory write downs which become positive this quarter.
View attachment 26877
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These graphs show a rather rosy picture of the financials. I have no reason to doubt you.

If so,
[1] Lucid Corp should be net cash positive by 2026?
[2] Since most of the cars (75%+) shipped in 2025 will be Airs, the sedan market is not saturated in the US and rest of the world?
[3] There are no financial impact to Lucid P&L and (sedan) market cannibalization (by the used Airs coming off leases) in 2025?
 
BS8899 said:
[1] Lucid Corp should be net cash positive by 2026?
Click to expand...
I doubt it because we cannot predict the R&D costs associated with midsize. With three versions, it will exceed R&D cost for Air and Gravity. The cash flow from operations is looking pretty flat.
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1740618988459.webp


BS8899 said:
[2] Since most of the cars (75%+) shipped in 2025 will be Airs, the sedan market is not saturated in the US and rest of the world?
Click to expand...
Very unlikely to be saturated outside of the US. The studio managers are telling me that Gravity is actually increasing interest in Air. Your guess is as good as mine for growth next year but I do expect growth in Air sales.


BS8899 said:
[3] There are no financial impact to Lucid P&L and (sedan) market cannibalization (by the used Airs coming off leases) in 2025?
Click to expand...
I think we both know that using a extreme position like "no financial impact" will not be true. The real question is how much the secondary market will offset any growth in Air demand. Again, your guess is as good as mine.
 
Adnillien said:
I doubt it because we cannot predict the R&D costs associated with midsize. With three versions, it will exceed R&D cost for Air and Gravity. The cash flow from operations is looking pretty flat.
View attachment 26886
View attachment 26887


Very unlikely to be saturated outside of the US. The studio managers are telling me that Gravity is actually increasing interest in Air. Your guess is as good as mine for growth next year but I do expect growth in Air sales.



I think we both know that using a extreme position like "no financial impact" will not be true. The real question is how much the secondary market will offset any growth in Air demand. Again, your guess is as good as mine.
Click to expand...
Appreciate your elaboration. Time will tell!
 
AZLucidGuy said:
We could debate the Jobs and Peter comparison. But let us just agree to disagree. I think that Peter is a "key man" to Lucid. I am very bullish on Lucid, but why is the target for 2025 only 20,000 vehicles? Yes, that's double 2024. However, if Air sales are flat at 10K (not good...), that leaves only 10K for Gravity (also not so good). I would rather have seen guidance for 15K Air and 20K Gravity because of the much larger TAM that Lucid is always referencing.
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Better to underpromise than overpromise....who knows, maybe they sell 25k? You have to understand they need to take into consideration the Trump effect- if he gets rid of leasing 7.5k loophole. Maybe that will drop sales a bit.
 
Did anyone get clarity from yesterday's earning call as to when Gravity will be:
> available for test drives?
> available for unsupervised reviews?
> start shipping to current reservation customers?
 
Batteryman said:
Please note, stock did fine until that BofA analyst came out with an unproven theoretical narrative to justify his $1 price. That’s why it tanked. It did well yesterday despite Peter leaving CEO position. Pure manipulation, exactly what analysts do….guess why they are wrong more than half the time, they are clueless like anyone of us….Lucid will double sales in 2025, I’m expecting another double to 40k for 2026. The demand for the midsize will push them to 100k by 2028, coinciding with Trump finishing his term. These short term hiccups are a buying opportunity. I’m doubling my position with further drops.
Click to expand...
I just checked good car bad car, JLR Land Rover sold 99K vehicles last year in the US, so the market is there for$100K SUVs.
 
AZLucidGuy said:
We could debate the Jobs and Peter comparison. But let us just agree to disagree. I think that Peter is a "key man" to Lucid. I am very bullish on Lucid, but why is the target for 2025 only 20,000 vehicles? Yes, that's double 2024. However, if Air sales are flat at 10K (not good...), that leaves only 10K for Gravity (also not so good). I would rather have seen guidance for 15K Air and 20K Gravity because of the much larger TAM that Lucid is always referencing.
Click to expand...
They are being quite conservative due to macro conditions - no rate cuts, anti-EV and tax credit removal, tariffs....
 
illopp00 said:
I just checked good car bad car, JLR Land Rover sold 99K vehicles last year in the US, so the market is there for$100K SUVs.
Click to expand...
2025 Range Rover price range is $120k - $160k.
Add that to the over $100k list along with Escalade IQ.
 
It feels very wall st. I'm sure some influential financiers are saying why is the lucid winning awards left and right but not selling like hot cakes. And maybe because mr. Rawlinson is really good at making a great product but not great at selling it. So if that's the case the next ceo would be someone with little technical skills and all marketing like a classic wall st ceo. I'm not sure how to feel then. As an investor I will make lots of money. As a lucid owner I can expect cost cutting and that's not good.
 
valentino said:
It feels very wall st. I'm sure some influential financiers are saying why is the lucid winning awards left and right but not selling like hot cakes. And maybe because mr. Rawlinson is really good at making a great product but not great at selling it. So if that's the case the next ceo would be someone with little technical skills and all marketing like a classic wall st ceo. I'm not sure how to feel then. As an investor I will make lots of money. As a lucid owner I can expect cost cutting and that's not good.
Click to expand...
They wont cut their flagship vehicles- air or Gravity. midsize of course will be a level lower. Trying to sell uber expensive cars throughout the whole lineup not sustainable.
 
As others have pointed out, the key thing to watch for is whether Peter’s team stays or leaves in the coming weeks and months. We are good if they stick around, and I hope they do. If they leave, it is terrible news for the company.

I am all for a professional CEO as well. But it will be critical for Lucid to keep its engineering edge and not become like Boeing. We know what happened there when executive leadership was switched from engineers to bean counters.
 
Fud by Viking again. Dont know when this people will stop or Lucid make some progress to shut this fud.

 
Since musing on the possibilities seems to be acceptable here... Tesla, fed up with Elon Musk's numerous distractions and adverse impact on sales, ousts him and entices Peter to return to Tesla as CEO. Peter quickly turns around their product line by licensing Lucid's proprietary technology. (Say 'Hello' to Peter's desired 80/20 split of Lucid's bottom line licensing vs. sales performance.) Or, either right away or at some point, Tesla just cuts to the chase and negotiates behind the scenes with the Lucid board and the PIF to acquire LCID for $x/share, with x being a large positive integer, and with the Lucid brand continuing as a part of Tesla just like Lincoln is a part of Ford. Either way, Lucid survives. Low probability? Yes. Outside the bounds of possibility? I don't think so. Anyway, it's fun to dream.
 
IRJ said:
All depends on who they bring in.
Click to expand...
Gosh I hope it's not anyone from Stellantis!!!! 🤪

It's a bit shocking but honestly not too surprising to hear.
The last interview I saw with Peter, he seemed a little "burned out" even though he said he loves the constant on the go schedule.
I agree at this point the company could use a fresh perspective. And it's nice he's staying on in an advisory role.
Maybe it's time he starts winding down? Retirement around the corner?
 
ButMahElectrons said:
Gosh I hope it's not anyone from Stellantis!!!! 🤪

It's a bit shocking but honestly not too surprising to hear.
The last interview I saw with Peter, he seemed a little "burned out" even though he said he loves the constant on the go schedule.
I agree at this point the company could use a fresh perspective. And it's nice he's staying on in an advisory role.
Maybe it's time he starts winding down? Retirement around the corner?
Click to expand...
Since Lucid Motors' leadership team has made up of several Europeans, Let's bring on Luca Cordero di Montezemolo as CEO. He successfully took over Enzo, after Enzo passed away, and turned Ferrari into a successful company.
 
It will be both tremendously telling AND interesting to see who they tap. In an ideal world, it is someone who fits Lucid's DNA (i.e. passionate about driving and cars) while also having a tad more of a track record to deliver steady financial performance, a buttoned up corporate image and deliver very uniformly high quality products...
 
Blue Lectroid said:
It will be both tremendously telling AND interesting to see who they tap. In an ideal world, it is someone who fits Lucid's DNA (i.e. passionate about driving and cars) while also having a tad more of a track record to deliver steady financial performance, a buttoned up corporate image and deliver very uniformly high quality products...
Click to expand...
Perfect time for Apple to get in Lucid for Apple car and a new ecosystem of AI in cars (e.g. FSD) then the home (humanoids…..). This could be part of the $500 billion American investment!

Someone has Mr. Cook’s ear?
 
Blue Lectroid said:
It will be both tremendously telling AND interesting to see who they tap. In an ideal world, it is someone who fits Lucid's DNA (i.e. passionate about driving and cars) while also having a tad more of a track record to deliver steady financial performance, a buttoned up corporate image and deliver very uniformly high quality products...
Click to expand...
I have bets going on Marc Winteroff =)
 
Apple lost Steve job and afterwards they became the biggest company in the world

Maybe this is going to make the same happen
 
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