Air Dream Deliveries?

[Sandvinsd]

Well, first we don't know what percentage of reservations converted to confirmations. I'm sure it's not 100 percent. Also, we don't know whether Lucid has asked all AGT reservation holders to confirm their orders.

They has gone through all GT orders through about mid-September per people on this forum and all through sometime in December by mid-January, again from forum comments here.

 

[LRSIII]

They has gone through all GT orders through about mid-September per people on this forum and all through sometime in December by mid-January, again from forum comments here.

Again, we don't know what percentage of reservation holders confirmed their orders. To my knowledge, Lucid hasn't released that number. It's easy to place a refundable $1000 deposit. It's a different matter when that deposit becomes non-refundable.

 

[Sandvinsd]

There was another thread, either here or on the other forum about the split between trims. Will have to find it. Perhaps someone else can locate it for me. Lucid has stated numbers of reservations and income potential from those orders Which was a topic of discussion The numbers indicated that a majority of the cars would have had to Pure’s. I will agree that the ATs will be limited since customers would want either the high end features or be price limited.

 

[steveairgt]

Not a bad thing (our AGT's not coming soon). It looks like Lucid has quite a bit of work to do on software, body panel alignment, etc. I would much rather they take the time to get the current DE purchasers sorted and reflect the improvements/advancements in our cars.

I agree. That means I’ll be driving my Model X for a few months longer. Seriously I don’t expect to see my AGT till May, having reserved in mid Dec.

 

[steveairgt]

If #295 was delivered (they aren't delivered in order obviously) the means there is a reasonable chance 200-300 have been delivered and another 135 DE's sit at the factory. Another 4 weeks of 30-50 cars per week will complete the DE build. So I think there is a reasonable chance AGT's start production towards the end of February and deliveries start mid-March.

Assuming this scenario, there seems no chance they can reach 20,000 units in 2022. Do you agree?

 

[mnewber1]

Assuming this scenario, there seems no chance they can reach 20,000 units in 2022. Do you agree?

We are three weeks into the year their current production count is around 40 cars per week working 7 days per week. I'd be surprised if they hit 10,000. Even with the extension being built, which doesn't look close to even being done.

 

[Paladin732]

Just got a call from the sales manager at Millbrae:
My car is throwing some errors in their system, so now they need to figure out what is wrong which may delay delivery.

 

[Paladin732]

We are three weeks into the year their current production count is around 40 cars per week working 7 days per week. I'd be surprised if they hit 10,000.

Exponential growth is wonderful.

 

[manitou202]

Assuming this scenario, there seems no chance they can reach 20,000 units in 2022. Do you agree?

20k per year is 385 per week. My guess is they have capacity at the factory to build 400-500 per week. Once they work out the bugs, assuming they aren't supply chain limited, cars will start moving quickly out of the factory. Typical production ramp up.

I doubt they will hit 20k this year however, because the slow start at the beginning of the year. Their original schedule probably assumed they were making 100-200 vehicles a week already based on 20k in 2022 estimate.

 

[Sandvinsd]

Awhile ago I was talking a Lucid employee and was given the impression that the distribution of orders within the 17,000 reservations was (very very roughly) 40% GT, 20% Touring, and 40% Pure. It seems like people wanted the top-of-the-line regular production model or were more price sensitive. That left the Touring as the odd man out.

Back in late June Lucid had announced 10k reservations with an average selling price of 90k per car. They had 500 DE reservations since they were closed at the time. Taking those out, Lucid has 9500 reservations at ~86k per reservation. Since the Pure is 77k and the GT is 139k it is impossible for them to be equal in reservations or the average selling price would not be what it was.. Therefore, the Air Pure trims are a vast majority of the first 10k reservations. While the average price increased for the next 7k reservations, the number of GT reservations is still low. Pure reservations must be at least 7x the number of GT reservations if there are zero ATs in the calculation. The Touring price is higher than the average price for reservations. Therefore, for every Touring reservation added to the equation, the ratio of Pure to GT goes even higher. At most only 2000 of the 17000 reservations were GTs. - at least that is what the numbers stated by Lucid tell us.

Lucid Motors Now Has 11,000 Vehicle Reservations | The Motley Fool

The nascent electric vehicle (EV) maker continues to garner vehicle reservations and consumer interest.

www.fool.com

 

[HC_79]

Assuming this scenario, there seems no chance they can reach 20,000 units in 2022. Do you agree?

Starting February they’d need over 400 cars a week minimum to get to 20,000 by year end. That’s a ramp up of 10 times what they’re doing today. The longer it takes to ramp up then the higher the weekly needs to be.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Pure is pushed into 2023

 

[mnewber1]

Exponential growth is wonderful.

See @HC_79's message above, even growing exponentially, there's no reality where they go from 40/week to 400/week within a week, much less a few months until they're at that rate.

 

[LRSIII]

Back in late June Lucid had announced 10k reservations with an average selling price of 90k per car. They had 500 DE reservations since they were closed at the time. Taking those out, Lucid has 9500 reservations at ~86k per reservation. Since the Pure is 77k and the GT is 139k it is impossible for them to be equal in reservations or the average selling price would not be what it was.. Therefore, the Air Pure trims are a vast majority of the first 10k reservations. While the average price increased for the next 7k reservations, the number of GT reservations is still low. Pure reservations must be at least 7x the number of GT reservations if there are zero ATs in the calculation. The Touring price is higher than the average price for reservations. Therefore, for every Touring reservation added to the equation, the ratio of Pure to GT goes even higher. At most only 2000 of the 17000 reservations were GTs. - at least that is what the numbers stated by Lucid tell us.

Lucid Motors Now Has 11,000 Vehicle Reservations | The Motley Fool

The nascent electric vehicle (EV) maker continues to garner vehicle reservations and consumer interest.

www.fool.com

And in the 3rd quarter 2021 report, Lucid reported "Customer reservations rose to 13,000 in Q3, reflecting an order book value of approximately $1.3B, and have since increased beyond 17,000." So, the average reservation was about $100,000 per unit by the end of the 3rd quarter, an increase from the $90,000 per unit in the 2nd quarter. So, those incremental 3,000 car reservations added in the 3rd quarter needed to be predominantly non-Pure models.

I'm not here to defend any particular sales distribution between the various Lucid models. I don't have a dog in this fight. I merely reported approximately what I had heard informally from a Lucid staffer.

 

[Swiftse3]

Using @Sandvinsd numbers I end up with about 1500 GT's.
With @LRSIII info maybe it gets to 2000.

I was just curious about a ballpark number. Thanks for the input.

 

[Maverick]

From my standpoint, with appropriate apologies to Pure reservation holders I'd prefer:

1. That they don't try to speed up production so that many of these problems - fit and finish, scratching, software, etc can be resolved before AGTs (or more specifically my AGT ships)
2. That they don't try to speed up production so that their post-vehicle acquisition customer support team doesn't get overwhelmed while I'm trying to resolve what no doubt will be a new batch of issues.

I do feel badly that the DE owners are undoubtedly the beta customers, and it must be very annoying to hear us say that we're fine to take more time so we get better functioning cars. But I will be a first time EV owner, and getting used to just the features that work will take some doing. I worry every time I see workarounds to problems and soft reboots, hard reboots, etc, that I won't remember them 6 months down the road. So I really just need the car to work. I don't have Tesla as a background, being the same as doesn't really resonate. I really want this to go well for them, but more importantly, I need it to go well for me.

 

[hydbob]

From my standpoint, with appropriate apologies to Pure reservation holders I'd prefer:

1. That they don't try to speed up production so that many of these problems - fit and finish, scratching, software, etc can be resolved before AGTs (or more specifically my AGT ships)
2. That they don't try to speed up production so that their post-vehicle acquisition customer support team doesn't get overwhelmed while I'm trying to resolve what no doubt will be a new batch of issues.

I do feel badly that the DE owners are undoubtedly the beta customers, and it must be very annoying to hear us say that we're fine to take more time so we get better functioning cars. But I will be a first time EV owner, and getting used to just the features that work will take some doing. I worry every time I see workarounds to problems and soft reboots, hard reboots, etc, that I won't remember them 6 months down the road. So I really just need the car to work. I don't have Tesla as a background, being the same as doesn't really resonate. I really want this to go well for them, but more importantly, I need it to go well for me.

Agree completely, many of us DE owners signed up for this whether or not that should be the case is a different discussion, however, I'm pretty sure you AGT guys want it all fleshed out. Hopefully 1.1.6 gets rid of most things.

 

[CLTGT]

I could have written what Maverick did about my own situation. This will be my first EV and I want the product to reflect what $140k should buy, not a well-intended attempt.

 

[HC_79]

Don’t think issues are going to be “resolved” with the DE and the AGT is going to be perfect. Expect 12 months minimum (maybe 2 years) for kinks to be ironed out. It’s a new model from a new company so if you don’t want to be a beta tester don’t buy any new model car within its first year of release.

 

[CLTGT]

Yea, this just might not be for me. Might just order a new M5 or 7-series and save myself the frustration. We’ll see what improves by the time they call me to actually pay for the car.

I am pretty sure the last thing Lucid wants is for half their customers to cancel. Delaying launch by six months “to get the car right” and then delivering a product with these types of problems is not reasonable and beyond what many expected.

 

[HC_79]

Yea, this just might not be for me. Might just order a new M5 or 7-series and save myself the frustration.

For a new model, I don’t think the issues are anything to warrant hitting the brakes and cancelling the order. The car certainly isn’t falling apart and the driving experience comments have all been positive.

This isn’t just a Lucid thing either. All the car companies bringing out their first EV models are going to have teething issues.