What if? -- maintaining Airs if Lucid US disappears

[jedwin]

While I don’t EXPECT this to happen, it does seem like there’s probably a 10-25% chance that Lucid doesn’t make it through the money-bleeding part of the ramping up cycle, with the company either going belly up, or--perhaps more likely--the Saudis taking it private and deciding the US market isn’t worth pursuing. So having a sense of how that would affect current owners is something I’m factoring into my purchase decision. (while this week's new Saudi and private stock news is encouraging short-term, it also accentuates the unknowns about how the Saudis will see the company if they end up in charge)

I realize I could hedge my bets by simply doing a lease, but these cars are SO well engineered that part of me feels like it’d be worthwhile to nab one while I can, to enjoy for 5-10 years….if there’s a reasonable path to keeping it on the road even if the company’s not here to support us.

Any thoughts on both:

Physical components, replacement parts, routine maintenance. EVs don’t take much maintenance, but there’s some, probably especially suspension systems. Is it likely that good mechanics will be able to do most of what’s needed? Body panels could be an issue after collision damage; any ideas how that might work?

(While for resale value if Lucid is thriving as I expect/hope it will be in 3-5 years, I'd lean to buying an options-heavy vehicle, this existential risk factor might lean away from things like soft-close doors, etc, that could be more problematic to maintain....any other optional packages that might be problematic in this worst-case world?)

Software and electronics issues concern me a bit more…..is the Lucid ownership base large enough to support a few key experts that can troubleshoot and reprogram as needed? Would the OTA/remote servicing systems be opened up to remain accessible as the company bows out?

How are other current owners of purchased cars looking at these small-to-moderate, but realistic risks?

 

[tonybot]

While I don’t EXPECT this to happen, it does seem like there’s probably a 10-25% chance that Lucid doesn’t make it through the money-bleeding part of the ramping up cycle, with the company either going belly up, or--perhaps more likely--the Saudis taking it private and deciding the US market isn’t worth pursuing. So having a sense of how that would affect current owners is something I’m factoring into my purchase decision. (while this week's new Saudi and private stock news is encouraging short-term, it also accentuates the unknowns about how the Saudis will see the company if they end up in charge)

I realize I could hedge my bets by simply doing a lease, but these cars are SO well engineered that part of me feels like it’d be worthwhile to nab one while I can, to enjoy for 5-10 years….if there’s a reasonable path to keeping it on the road even if the company’s not here to support us.

Any thoughts on both:

Physical components, replacement parts, routine maintenance. EVs don’t take much maintenance, but there’s some, probably especially suspension systems. Is it likely that good mechanics will be able to do most of what’s needed? Body panels could be an issue after collision damage; any ideas how that might work?

(While for resale value if Lucid is thriving as I expect/hope it will be in 3-5 years, I'd lean to buying an options-heavy vehicle, this existential risk factor might lean away from things like soft-close doors, etc, that could be more problematic to maintain....any other optional packages that might be problematic in this worst-case world?)

Software and electronics issues concern me a bit more…..is the Lucid ownership base large enough to support a few key experts that can troubleshoot and reprogram as needed? Would the OTA/remote servicing systems be opened up to remain accessible as the company bows out?

How are other current owners of purchased cars looking at these small-to-moderate, but realistic risks?

I am sure other folks will chime in with their thoughts on your other questions but I was contemplating same questions before I leased my Lucid in July. I opted for a 36 month lease as it made sense in Texas due to sales tax considerations. I have an option to buy at the end of lease and the buy out price is very decent in my opinion. At the end of my lease, I will look at market conditions, vehicle condition and Lucid’s position to make a decision if I will keep it or not. Lease enables me to de-risk it at present while giving me a shot to buy it at lease end. I have done this for my current Lexus. At the lease end, it made sense to keep the vehicle versus returning it and I plan to do the same analysis for my Lucid. I am also hoping to pickup a Gravity once leases are offered - sometime in 2025 I hope.

 

[segbrk]

It'll certainly be interesting to watch what happens with Fisker Oceans over the next couple years. With the company gone, owners have stood up a nonprofit to keep the cars going: https://www.fiskeroa.com/about-foa
The nonprofit has been granted access to repair manuals, diagnostic tools, etc. They are coordinating with mechanics to get their vehicles serviced. I'm looking forward to seeing if they are able to make any headway with software fixes.

 

[HC_79]

In the early days I would have leased to avoid the concerns I had as it was a lot of money to throw into a company that will continue to need significant cash investments for the years to come. Leasing wasn't an option at the time so I went all in and purchased but my concerns today about whether Lucid will be around in the future are definitely less worrying that when I jumped on board in March 2022. The PIF seems to be all in on Lucid and it's engineering is leagues ahead of the competition so I don't see Lucid going anywhere. You also just need to look at the space Lucid is competing in and the Air is doing really well holding its own against its competitors in the same class.

Having said that, If I jump into the Gravity i'm debating whether to just lease instead of buy. I know luxury cars depreciate faster than others but I wasn't expecting the Lucid to depreciate so significantly over such a short period of time. EV's in general aren't really holding their values well where leasing could be more favorable and you can just make it the dealers problem to take the hit on value when the time comes.

 

[hmp10]

Any thoughts . . . .

Outcomes regarding service and repair if an auto company ceases to operate (which is not necessarily an outcome of bankruptcy) cannot be guaranteed and can vary somewhat by state law if warranties are still involved. It would depend on the type of bankruptcy, whether another company acquires any of the assets and liabilities and on what terms, etc.

I think any expectation that independent service shops would be able to do all or even many repairs on a Lucid is very iffy. Working on Lucids, especially its high-voltage electricals, requires specialized training. Also, all the key powertrain components of a Lucid are in-house designed and built instead of sourced from suppliers who might remain in business.

Things such as wheel alignments, tire changes, damper replacements can be done outside the Lucid network, but not much else in the suspension department probably can. Currently there are no after-market body panels or structural components available for Lucids, and that is likely to remain the case for a while, so many body repairs would be beyond reach.

Every passing month leaves me more confident that Lucid will be here for the long haul. I even think it possible that in 10-15 years, people will be studying how Lucid managed to take market dominance from Tesla. But I think a buyer today has to be willing to take the small risk that they could end up with a car without a brand behind it.

 

[lucidtouringman]

I am sure other folks will chime in with their thoughts on your other questions but I was contemplating same questions before I leased my Lucid in July. I opted for a 36 month lease as it made sense in Texas due to sales tax considerations. I have an option to buy at the end of lease and the buy out price is very decent in my opinion. At the end of my lease, I will look at market conditions, vehicle condition and Lucid’s position to make a decision if I will keep it or not. Lease enables me to de-risk it at present while giving me a shot to buy it at lease end. I have done this for my current Lexus. At the lease end, it made sense to keep the vehicle versus returning it and I plan to do the same analysis for my Lucid. I am also hoping to pickup a Gravity once leases are offered - sometime in 2025 I hope.

I generally keep my car at least 7 years, but at times, I wish I would have done exactly what you've stated here last year. I love the car and hope Lucid keep going from strength to strength after the Gravity and then later the midsize release.

 

[dwfallin]

Didn’t have the concern when I signed up to buy a cpl years before production ‘cause I was a genius and knew I’d be able to flip for a profit after a cpl months…. Bwahahaha! And now I’ve been driving it for ur and a half and I’m not really worried about the scenario because: a) I’ll probably sell/trade in the next year or so, b) I don’t think the company’s going anywhere - deep pockets, unique product (from an engineering point of view), high volume model < 2yrs out, selling that in-house tech to other companies, and c) if they did go under - I think they’d be a prime target for someone to buy up given the investments they’ve made in mfg facilities

 

[RM-S8]

While I don’t EXPECT this to happen, it does seem like there’s probably a 10-25% chance that Lucid doesn’t make it through the money-bleeding part of the ramping up cycle, with the company either going belly up, or--perhaps more likely--the Saudis taking it private and deciding the US market isn’t worth pursuing. So having a sense of how that would affect current owners is something I’m factoring into my purchase decision. (while this week's new Saudi and private stock news is encouraging short-term, it also accentuates the unknowns about how the Saudis will see the company if they end up in charge)

I realize I could hedge my bets by simply doing a lease, but these cars are SO well engineered that part of me feels like it’d be worthwhile to nab one while I can, to enjoy for 5-10 years….if there’s a reasonable path to keeping it on the road even if the company’s not here to support us.

Any thoughts on both:

Physical components, replacement parts, routine maintenance. EVs don’t take much maintenance, but there’s some, probably especially suspension systems. Is it likely that good mechanics will be able to do most of what’s needed? Body panels could be an issue after collision damage; any ideas how that might work?

(While for resale value if Lucid is thriving as I expect/hope it will be in 3-5 years, I'd lean to buying an options-heavy vehicle, this existential risk factor might lean away from things like soft-close doors, etc, that could be more problematic to maintain....any other optional packages that might be problematic in this worst-case world?)

Software and electronics issues concern me a bit more…..is the Lucid ownership base large enough to support a few key experts that can troubleshoot and reprogram as needed? Would the OTA/remote servicing systems be opened up to remain accessible as the company bows out?

How are other current owners of purchased cars looking at these small-to-moderate, but realistic risks?

Relax, have a drink, or two.

 

[AirDoll]

Relax, have a drink, or two.

“Relax, have a drink, or two. Then buy the Lucid already!”

There, I fixed it for you

 

[Tym]

the car literally California's logo imprinted everywhere. I will probably keep buying the stock till im broke or yacht.

 

[Vic Lucid]

I never thought about any of that, I just loved the car and bought it!
Although, my wife thinks I was a bit crazy….

 

[Bus Driver]

I never thought about any of that, I just loved the car and bought it!
Although, my wife thinks I was a bit crazy….

Me either. And my partner remained in a grump and wouldn’t talk to me for two days when I picked up mine. I suppose it didn’t help that I had said absolutely nothing to him when I placed a deposit on my car online several months earlier.

 

[DeaneG]

No need to pile speculation on top of speculation. Just lease and have fun.

 

[kerplunk]

I generally don't like leasing. The Air was the first time I considered it for all of the reasons mentioned. I eventually decided to purchase and the situation with the company now feels better than it was back then. I'm no longer the only one in my area with one and I've seen them around and so have others because people don't walk up and freak out over the car as much.

If I could do things over I'd still end up buying or get something smaller because the Air is a big boi and my driveway is tiny.

 

[Batteryman]

While I don’t EXPECT this to happen, it does seem like there’s probably a 10-25% chance that Lucid doesn’t make it through the money-bleeding part of the ramping up cycle, with the company either going belly up, or--perhaps more likely--the Saudis taking it private and deciding the US market isn’t worth pursuing. So having a sense of how that would affect current owners is something I’m factoring into my purchase decision. (while this week's new Saudi and private stock news is encouraging short-term, it also accentuates the unknowns about how the Saudis will see the company if they end up in charge)

I realize I could hedge my bets by simply doing a lease, but these cars are SO well engineered that part of me feels like it’d be worthwhile to nab one while I can, to enjoy for 5-10 years….if there’s a reasonable path to keeping it on the road even if the company’s not here to support us.

Any thoughts on both:

Physical components, replacement parts, routine maintenance. EVs don’t take much maintenance, but there’s some, probably especially suspension systems. Is it likely that good mechanics will be able to do most of what’s needed? Body panels could be an issue after collision damage; any ideas how that might work?

(While for resale value if Lucid is thriving as I expect/hope it will be in 3-5 years, I'd lean to buying an options-heavy vehicle, this existential risk factor might lean away from things like soft-close doors, etc, that could be more problematic to maintain....any other optional packages that might be problematic in this worst-case world?)

Software and electronics issues concern me a bit more…..is the Lucid ownership base large enough to support a few key experts that can troubleshoot and reprogram as needed? Would the OTA/remote servicing systems be opened up to remain accessible as the company bows out?

How are other current owners of purchased cars looking at these small-to-moderate, but realistic risks?

I give it 0% chance of bankruptcy.....so I'm not wasting a single ATP thinking about this.....just bought more stock yesterday!

 

[levsha]

Fisker Ocean story shows that will be very little chances to have software support and online services working if Lucid disappears - nobody seems to be designing this part the way that would make it doable to transfer it to anyone.

 

[Lucken]

Fisker Ocean story shows that will be very little chances to have software support and online services working if Lucid disappears - nobody seems to be designing this part the way that would make it doable to transfer it to anyone.

Since every car company with a heavy OTA capability has their own proprietary programming, I’m not sure how any company could easily transfer this functionality to another company. The IT guys here would know better.

 

[Steveinarizona]

Fisker Ocean story shows that will be very little chances to have software support and online services working if Lucid disappears - nobody seems to be designing this part the way that would make it doable to transfer it to anyone.

Not really comparable. While Scottsdale is not typical of the entire country, I have seen exactly one Ocean in my life; on the other hand, I see at least one Lucid every day and often several. The technology is superior and the sales base is to a desirable cohort. I don't see Lucid going under but if we want to play the imaginary game, I think it would be more like SAAB where there was service available at a number of dealers for years.

I would expect that another company would value both the technology of Lucid and the nature of the vehicle ownership group and would want to pick it up.

 

[hmp10]

I would expect that another company would value both the technology of Lucid and the nature of the vehicle ownership group and would want to pick it up.

Yes, I find it hard to imagine Lucid's cutting edge powertrain technology -- and the facilities already on line to mass produce it -- would be left lying on the table. The question, though, about ongoing service of Lucid cars would rest on just which other assets and liabilities a purchaser acquired.

I have long thought the Saudis are In this game not just to build cars but to diversity their economy by, in part, acquiring a leading position in EV technology. I don't know that they would let Lucid as a whole get swallowed up by a legacy car company in which they could not play a major role.

But I line up with most of the other posters here on the question of bankruptcy. While it cannot be said to be impossible, I really think it's been a rapidly receding threat for some time. I was serious with my earlier comment about Lucid's having the potential at some point to ascend to market dominance in the EV space. A lot will depend on how long and how deep is the Saudi commitment, what comes of the growing turmoil and loss of focus at Tesla, whether Lucid can maintain its almost maniacal focus on efficiency and extend that focus to cost management, whether the Germans and the Japanese finally start getting their EV act together, and whether Ford and GM can stop thinking about things such as EV pickups, Escalades, and Hummers. The Koreans might be the most serious contenders to compete with Lucid near term, and the Chinese remain a wild card, with politics as much as technology in that mix.

The futures of businesses are very hard to predict, no matter how the lay of the land looks at any given point in time. None of the companies that formed the original Dow Jones listing in 1896 are around today in anything like their original guise. The one that lasted the longest was General Electric which, after two early short-term removals, held its place for 111 years. I worked at GE for twenty years during the heyday of the Jack Welch era and during which GE became the most valuable company on earth. I used to deliver talks around the GE circuit and in other venues on what had given GE this atypical corporate longevity and what could undo it. (The average lifespan of a Dow Jones company is actually less than an average human lifespan.)

Well, guess what. Within a decade of Welch's departure, GE was saved from bankruptcy only by a cash infusion from Warren Buffet and left with chronically-labored breathing. Twenty years after his departure, the GE brand had all but disappeared in a quiet puff of smoke, remaining only on aircraft engines. What replaced the once-mighty and storied GE on the Dow? Walgreens. How long did they stay there? Less than 6 years.

Nothing in the corporate world is forever. Not much of it is even for very long. The notion that Tesla will dominate the EV world indefinitely is a fond imagining, and the signs of what could unwind that dominance are already emerging. The question is what company will step to the head of the line next . . . and how long will it hold the lead on the never-ending racetrack that is the business world?

 

[RM-S8]

"What if? "
In general, "what if" scenarios are infinite.
Silly to contemplate.
But, because I'm a such a nice guy (in general, lol), I'll give you one.
What if... there is an asteroid heading toward our solar system. Not only that, but heading straight toward the Earth.
Would you still invest in...?