What if? -- maintaining Airs if Lucid US disappears

[hmp10]

"What if? "
In general, "what if" scenarios are infinite.
Silly to contemplate.
But, because I'm a such a nice guy (in general, lol), I'll give you one.
What if... there is an asteroid heading toward our solar system. Not only that, but heading straight toward the Earth.
Would you still invest in...?

Probably best to write my post off as a symptom of the wait for the Gravity just dragging on so long . . . .

 

[RM-S8]

Probably best to write my post off as a symptom of the wait for the Gravity just dragging on so long . . . .

Never. I like your posts a lot.

 

[tonybot]

Never. I like your posts a lot.

Same!

 

[jbawden]

I don't see anything wrong with discussing failure and how the plausibility of such influences purchase decisions now, as well as long-term ownership experiences. Hopes and wishes are not a strategy in my personal finances, so I consider many reasonable outcomes and scenarios and make the best choice I can. I chose to lease not because I thought Lucid would fold, but the rapid pace of technological change and the general cratering value of used BEV's. I have a great lease payment and part that is because of the artificially inflated residual. At some point the smart money scales will tip towards buy over lease, but we definitely aren't there yet.

Preston Tucker, and many before and after him, proved how hard it is to find success as a startup in the automotive world. Lucid has an excellent product, but making major financial decisions without considering the clear evidence of headwinds facing ALL BEV manufacturers is foolhardy.

 

[thong1999]

"What if? "
In general, "what if" scenarios are infinite.
Silly to contemplate.
But, because I'm a such a nice guy (in general, lol), I'll give you one.
What if... there is an asteroid heading toward our solar system. Not only that, but heading straight toward the Earth.
Would you still invest in...?

As we all know, it is a question of likelihood. The chance of an asteroid hitting the Earth in our lifetime is less than the “space laser” destroying AMP-2.

 

[levsha]

"What if? "
In general, "what if" scenarios are infinite.
Silly to contemplate.

In general yes. But The initial question is very specific, not general.
It's a good practice (and even required in some cases) to continuously ask "what if ...", and probably do some design choses, decisions, etc. What if power steering in the car will break? What if your bank will go down (or bankrupt) and your credit card will stop working? What if ...

But, because I'm a such a nice guy (in general, lol), I'll give you one.
What if... there is an asteroid heading toward our solar system. Not only that, but heading straight toward the Earth.
Would you still invest in...?

I can't choose the planet where to live, and I can't build any protection system against asteroids, so this can't affect my decision. Not even talking about probability.

 

[levsha]

Since every car company with a heavy OTA capability has their own proprietary programming, I’m not sure how any company could easily transfer this functionality to another company. The IT guys here would know better.

That is how every car company does it today unfortunately. It is not the only option, and probably not the option how it should be. Android phones market shows this: there are quite a few alternative firmwares available, also for some EoL devices, and phone owners usually have the way how to switch to an alternative firmware for their devices. Car manufacturers don't provide this option. Even more: looks like some even design it the way that it won't be possible to do this even by legal successor.

 

[levsha]

Not really comparable. While Scottsdale is not typical of the entire country, I have seen exactly one Ocean in my life; on the other hand, I see at least one Lucid every day and often several. The technology is superior and the sales base is to a desirable cohort. I don't see Lucid going under

I'm not talking about probability of this to happen. And my understanding is that the original question was not about this either.
I'm talking about potential ability for someone else to do anything with firmware and online services. And this is very comparable.

but if we want to play the imaginary game, I think it would be more like SAAB where there was service available at a number of dealers for years.

I would expect that another company would value both the technology of Lucid and the nature of the vehicle ownership group and would want to pick it up.

It can work with some hardware components - what was with SAAB.
Will be only possible with the software part if Lucid would open all the code, including the firmware and the server side code. And it will be most likely extremely risky to do that for car owners security.

 

[borski]

and I can't build any protection system against asteroids

Well, not with that attitude…

 

[thong1999]

Well, not with that attitude…

See https://science.nasa.gov/mission/dart/

NASA will save our shares.

 

[Steveinarizona]

Would you still invest in...?

cocaine and heroin. People are going to want to get high before they die and this will get me money to spend on whatever last minute joys I will have before we are all wiped out.

what was with SAAB

Saab was an excellent Swedish car maker (and jet plane maker). GM bought the car company and, no surprise, ran it into the ground and then shut it down. But a number of car dealers acted to do repairs and provide parts for Saab owners:

What Happened to Saab? | Capital One Auto Navigator

The rise and fall of the cult-favorite Swedish brand in the U.S.

www.capitalone.com

 

[rking0122]

Not really comparable. While Scottsdale is not typical of the entire country, I have seen exactly one Ocean in my life; on the other hand, I see at least one Lucid every day and often several. The technology is superior and the sales base is to a desirable cohort. I don't see Lucid going under but if we want to play the imaginary game, I think it would be more like SAAB where there was service available at a number of dealers for years.

I would expect that another company would value both the technology of Lucid and the nature of the vehicle ownership group and would want to pick it up.

I just picked up an AT yesterday in CA and drove it home to Scottsdale. So you'll see mine out in the (Scottsdale) wild now too.

 

[Taz K]

As someone who enjoys tinkering with almost anything, I would take it upon myself to understand the Lucid Air in depth so I could attempt to perform maintenance for my vehicle. My father is retired from a long career working in Ford assembly plants. We often took many things apart to to repair them, including vehicles, appliances, and computers. Although, I'm hoping there's a Chilton's Manual for the Air to help with software.

As for the asteroid, I'm investing in what matters most to me... time with my family. My son wants to be a rocket scientist so maybe we will try that too!

Great thought experiment!

 

[segbrk]

As someone who enjoys tinkering with almost anything, I would take it upon myself to understand the Lucid Air in depth so I could attempt to perform maintenance for my vehicle.

Same. And as a mainly software person, that includes the software. None of this “it can’t be done” stuff is true. Would it be easy to modify the car software? No. Would us dedicated nerds figure it out anyway? Yes, I have no doubt. With or without the company’s support. The only thing in the way (of modding) now is the warranty, and that would be moot if there were no longer a company to back it. Like I said, very interested to see if this happens with Fisker.

 

[HC_79]

Same. And as a mainly software person, that includes the software. None of this “it can’t be done” stuff is true. Would it be easy to modify the car software? No. Would us dedicated nerds figure it out anyway? Yes, I have no doubt. With or without the company’s support. The only thing in the way (of modding) now is the warranty, and that would be moot if there were no longer a company to back it. Like I said, very interested to see if this happens with Fisker.

A company purchased Fiskers cloud for $2.5 million for 5 years allowing them access to the OTA ecosystem. Nothing is confirmed on what they’re going to do with it though.

 

[borski]

Same. And as a mainly software person, that includes the software. None of this “it can’t be done” stuff is true. Would it be easy to modify the car software? No. Would us dedicated nerds figure it out anyway? Yes, I have no doubt. With or without the company’s support. The only thing in the way (of modding) now is the warranty, and that would be moot if there were no longer a company to back it. Like I said, very interested to see if this happens with Fisker.

Right, same thought I had. I’d be fine. In fact, might be more free to add what I want instead of Android Auto

Jk jk don’t @ me

 

[levsha]

Well, not with that attitude…

I'm not Bruce Willis ...

 

[RM-S8]

See https://science.nasa.gov/mission/dart/

NASA will save our shares.

Lol, sure it will.

 

[boxerbay]

if you have a "what if" then just lease for 36mo.

 

[Tony Coroalles]

While I don’t EXPECT this to happen, it does seem like there’s probably a 10-25% chance that Lucid doesn’t make it through the money-bleeding part of the ramping up cycle, with the company either going belly up, or--perhaps more likely--the Saudis taking it private and deciding the US market isn’t worth pursuing. So having a sense of how that would affect current owners is something I’m factoring into my purchase decision. (while this week's new Saudi and private stock news is encouraging short-term, it also accentuates the unknowns about how the Saudis will see the company if they end up in charge)

I realize I could hedge my bets by simply doing a lease, but these cars are SO well engineered that part of me feels like it’d be worthwhile to nab one while I can, to enjoy for 5-10 years….if there’s a reasonable path to keeping it on the road even if the company’s not here to support us.

Any thoughts on both:

Physical components, replacement parts, routine maintenance. EVs don’t take much maintenance, but there’s some, probably especially suspension systems. Is it likely that good mechanics will be able to do most of what’s needed? Body panels could be an issue after collision damage; any ideas how that might work?

(While for resale value if Lucid is thriving as I expect/hope it will be in 3-5 years, I'd lean to buying an options-heavy vehicle, this existential risk factor might lean away from things like soft-close doors, etc, that could be more problematic to maintain....any other optional packages that might be problematic in this worst-case world?)

Software and electronics issues concern me a bit more…..is the Lucid ownership base large enough to support a few key experts that can troubleshoot and reprogram as needed? Would the OTA/remote servicing systems be opened up to remain accessible as the company bows out?

How are other current owners of purchased cars looking at these small-to-moderate, but realistic risks?

I thought about this before pulling the plug on my old Tesla. The Saudi Sovereign Fund is a big time investor in Lucid. I figured they have enough money at risk to sustain their investment until profitability.