Lucid's Future

[thyname]

I don't know what the answer is for the longevity of the brand, but I do feel like the driving experience isn't fully being communicated

With all due respect, the vast majority of the drivers have no clue of the driving experience. Like 99%. OK, I perhaps exaggerated, but surely over 90%.

Make a good “computer on wheels” that looks great and fancy, and they are all onboard \

 

[Blue Lectroid]

With all due respect, the vast majority of the drivers have no clue of the driving experience. Like 99%. OK, I perhaps exaggerated, but surely over 90%.

Make a good “computer on wheels” that looks great and fancy, and they are all onboard \

As Ferrari, Porsche and others show, you don’t have to go that route. It’s a mass market option, sure, but do we really need to live in a one flavor of ice cream world?

There ARE still many folks for whom the driving experience does matter…

 

[PetevB]

There’s no mystery at all - they started way too expensive for an untested company and eliminated themselves from consideration for 99% of buyers. What will be interesting is how many Gravity sales are to people who do not already have an Air, because they are repeating the same strategy with the average cost somewhere in the $120k range.

It’s standard practice to start at the higher end of the market and work your way down when possible. It lets a brand build a high end image, make mistakes on a smaller scale (because they apply to fewer units, build out a less extensive (cheaper) dealer network, etc. Yes they limit their buyers to a fraction of the market, but that’s by design. Had Lucid tried to jump straight to a higher volume, lower cost car with mass appeal they would have fallen on their face, ruined their reputation and run out of cash. If they’d even been funded in the first place.

The majority of Gravity reservation holders are, like me, new to the brand. Many appear to be, like me, refugees coming from Tesla/ Porsche/ Audi/ BMW, attracted by the promise of half a decade more advanced technology (like Tesla) along with the driver’s centric philosophy of the better European cars. If that promise is fulfilled Lucid will easily justify the price point they are shooting at next in my mind.

 

[Leftlane]

Are you forgetting that Tesla launched with the Model S and followed with Model X? OK, actually they launched with an even less practical and relatively MORE expensive car (the Roadster), but the point stands. That is exactly the same game plan Lucid is running now…seems that Tesla initially being “expensive and super unknown” didn’t hurt their future…

Nope - but you are forgetting that Tesla was the only game in town and advancing EVs way past Leafs and Bolts, so they could command a premium price. Lucid launched into a crowded market with no name brand recognition, virtually no advertising, almost no showrooms, and priced above almost everything else on the market (as Tesla cut their own prices). And even though I can’t stand Elon, he is a much better marketeer (liar, braggart, hyperbole master - whatever - it worked to get huge and constant attention). Tesla also launched the charging network - really the paths aren’t alike at all. Way too much competition now, even for Tesla to stand out at these massive pricepoints. Sales data really doesn’t lie - how many people can swallow $100k + for a new car, especially today?

 

[hmp10]

Nope - but you are forgetting that Tesla was the only game in town and advancing EVs way past Leafs and Bolts, so they could command a premium price. Lucid launched into a crowded market with no name brand recognition, virtually no advertising, almost no showrooms, and priced above almost everything else on the market (as Tesla cut their own prices). And even though I can’t stand Elon, he is a much better marketeer (liar, braggart, hyperbole master - whatever - it worked to get huge and constant attention). Tesla also launched the charging network - really the paths aren’t alike at all. Way too much competition now, even for Tesla to stand out at these massive pricepoints. Sales data really doesn’t lie - how many people can swallow $100k + for a new car, especially today?

I think you're overlooking the fact that, in the U.S. (the first market into which Lucid launched), the Air outsells the MB EQS, the Porsche Taycan, the BMW i7, and the Tesla Model S.

Yes, the volumes are small, because the market segment is small . . . but in that segment Lucid is outselling all the established brands. And some in the press who have test driven the Gravity are already saying it is not only the best EV SUV on the market, but the outright best SUV regardless of propulsion technology.

It's way, way too early to pronounce Lucid awash in a sea of competition in which it cannot swim.

 

[PetevB]

I think you're overlooking the fact that, in the U.S. (the first market into which Lucid launched), the Air outsells the MB EQS, the Porsche Taycan, the BMW i7, and the Tesla Model S.

Yes, the volumes are small, because the market segment is small . . . but in that segment Lucid is outselling all the established brands. And some in the press who have test driven the Gravity are already saying it is not only the best EV SUV on the market, but the outright best SUV regardless of propulsion technology.

It's way, way too early to pronounce Lucid awash in a sea of competition in which it cannot swim.

To be fair it’s pretty easy to outsell anything if you’re willing to put stacks of cash in the trunk, which is essentially what Lucid has been doing. They are both losing a couple hundred thousand per vehicle sold and subsidizing leases to make payments in line with much less expensive cars.

Back in the day, before the Taycan was even announced, I remember speaking with a Porsche engineer at a launch event in Italy. He was the guy in charge of developing the Carrera GTS engine, I was there as a journalist covering something else and we avoided specifics. He did, however, made it clear how difficult the competition between Porsche and Tesla was from an engineer’s perspective. Porsche’s shareholders and board expect a certain profit margin for every car sold, while Tesla’s board and shareholders at the time did not. Essentially the Taycan development team was facing a highly unfair fight: make a car competitive with the Model S with either a fraction of the budget, both R&D and capex, or a much higher MSRP. Clearly they chose the latter, while Tesla, free of the need to have that specific model pencil on its own, used deficit spending through this period to built a very large technical and market lead.

Lucid’s in that same phase now- their cars don’t need to pencil on their own yet. The idea is to use that massive advantage to disrupt the market, building tech, capability, etc that will pay off in the future. And I think there’s a chance Lucid can- as I said I think they’ve got a roughly half decade lead, at least over anything I can currently see (perhaps excluding China). But they need to parlay that rapidly into either vastly more sales, licensing deals or both or they are toast. The $200k they are losing per car is largely R&D and tooling costs. Spreading those over far more units is the way. If the tech really is as superior as it seems to be customers will follow. As long as you don’t give them reasons not to (bad service, crappy UI, etc).

 

[hmp10]

He [the engineer] did, however, made it clear how difficult the competition between Porsche and Tesla was from an engineer’s perspective. Porsche’s shareholders and board expect a certain profit margin for every car sold, while Tesla’s board and shareholders at the time did not. Essentially the Taycan development team was facing a highly unfair fight: make a car competitive with the Model S with either a fraction of the budget, both R&D and capex, or a much higher MSRP. Clearly they chose the latter, while Tesla, free of the need to have that specific model pencil on its own, used deficit spending through this period to built a very large technical and market lead.

I worked for over twenty years at a major corglomerate. The CEO defined his role as largely that of tax collecting and wealth redistribution, in that he used the cash and profits generated by mature product lines to cover the costs of developing new technology and product lines that would become the next generation of wealth generators.

If an automaker that has profitable car models ordains that new technologies must pay their way as they go during the development phase, all the hand-wringing about how it limits the scope of their engineering efforts is of their own doing.

And from the customer's perspective, Tesla was also selling cars at a very high MSRP during their early years. In 2015 I paid over $128,000 for a Model S that was not even fully optioned. In 2015 a new Porsche Carrera coupe started at $87,535, and the Panamera started at $78,100. (Of course, its being Porsche, you probably had to turn to a pricey options list to get a steering wheel and a brake pedal.)

Also, Porsche had an existing manufacturing capability, an established supplier base, a dealer network, a mature service operation, a reputation that could attract new engineering talent, a stellar brand identity for delivering quality and performance -- and parts bins of certain components from other models that could be deployed in a new EV. Tesla had to create almost all those things in order to launch, just as Lucid has had to do. So for Porsche engineers to whine about how much behind the 8-ball they were in comparison to Tesla -- or Lucid -- is completely to ignore some of the huge advantages Porsche had over a startup in getting an EV to market..

 

[Blue Lectroid]

Nope - but you are forgetting that Tesla was the only game in town and advancing EVs way past Leafs and Bolts, so they could command a premium price. Lucid launched into a crowded market with no name brand recognition, virtually no advertising, almost no showrooms, and priced above almost everything else on the market (as Tesla cut their own prices). And even though I can’t stand Elon, he is a much better marketeer (liar, braggart, hyperbole master - whatever - it worked to get huge and constant attention). Tesla also launched the charging network - really the paths aren’t alike at all. Way too much competition now, even for Tesla to stand out at these massive pricepoints. Sales data really doesn’t lie - how many people can swallow $100k + for a new car, especially today?

I would submit that it was significantly harder to create an entirely new market segment (a high performing, elegant looking, long range EV) and convince folks you were for real than is Lucid’s current “crowded market” challenge. We’ll see which one of us is correct over time, right?

 

[Batteryman]

Lucid’s current engineering philosophy is fundamentally different than Porsche’s. In fact it’s like the old Porsche, the one that nearly went bankrupt in the 1990s. I do wonder if Lucid can make it work where Porsche didn’t.

In 1991 Porsche sold 23,000 cars worldwide on three platforms, each completely bespoke. Every platform was highly optimized, with a relatively small number of parts shared- brakes, etc. This is similar in volume and approach to where Lucid is today, though Lucid is spending many multiples of what Porsche did on R&D, setting up factories, etc.

Today Porsche sells 310,000 vehicles per year, every one of them on platforms shared either within Porsche (Boxster/ Cayman/ Carrera) or with other models across the VW brand (everything else). This justifies R&D and manufacturing investment by spreading it across many cars sold.

I believe Lucid’s engineering spend is actually far higher than Porsche’s on a per vehicle basis, and we can see the results in the very different level of technology in current vehicles, with Lucid being well ahead. Take the Taycan’s charging performance shown above- impressive, but not hard to achieve if one is willing to spend money of the right battery chemistry, which Porsche is. And 302 miles of highway range from a 97 kWh pack is again not bad, 3.1 miles per KWh, until, that is, you consider that’s for a low slung 4 seater and that Lucid’s likely to achieve almost 20% better from a much bigger, heavier SUV.

The R&D spend needs to be covered one way or another. Porsche spreads it over many vehicle derivatives built off a single platform. But Lucid’s efficiency advantage is made possible in part because they have highly engineered solutions that package very tightly because they don’t need to be modular or flexible for other cars. That approach leads towards Tesla’s model- a small number of platforms that sell in higher volumes to cover the development expense. Currently that seems to be where Lucid’s heading, though more up market. Think a Model Y at a 10-20% premium that has better range and driving dynamics. I think that’s what you’re suggesting re following Porsche’s path, rather than the path Porsche actually took with modularization, many niche models and a highly flexible shared platform strategy to make high R&D spend possible.

You forget, we are at the cusp of an energy transition…..and Lucid makes the best “ engines “ in the world……it’s not just ride and handling, it’s also space and efficiency. And Lucid products are not just geared towards sports car enthusiasts….its also geared towards families.

It’s not the same….

 

[Leftlane]

I’d like to make it clear that I am cheering for Lucid and think the cars are awesome. I do happen to own a Tesla S Plaid and have been a Porsche guy for decades. I hope Lucid can survive and thrive and force all other EV companies to improve or lose.

 

[boydracing]

I will say something controversial though from my various Porsche rentals and weeks long ownerships, including even the Taycan.

When I had the gt3rs and even the Targa, and the 911 997 body model, I didn't find Porsche to be "luxury" as many describe. They have amazing engineering in suspension, tuning, control, driving dynamics, all the bells and whistles. But software wise and the actual interior cabin didn't define luxury to me in any way. In fact the suspension was stiff and bumps were uncomfortable.
It was cramped, and barely comfortable at best, unless I had a convertible too, it was claustrophobic.

So I consider them premium, and definitely an amazing sports car in every aspect. I have no idea why people define them as luxury. But Lotus and Porsche would definitely be the top pick if I had to go around a track.

I know to some what I said is blasphemous

I completely agree to a point. The engineering is far and away what you are buying. The luxury is only the clientele the brand is catering to. Porsche is all about form and function. The WORST car audio system was in my Porsche 911 Turbo.

 

[PetevB]

You forget, we are at the cusp of an energy transition…..and Lucid makes the best “ engines “ in the world……it’s not just ride and handling, it’s also space and efficiency. And Lucid products are not just geared towards sports car enthusiasts….its also geared towards families.

It’s not the same….

I’m not sure you’ve made your point clearly enough to respond to…

Two companies are not the same… obviously.
Lucid products are not just geared towards sports car enthusiasts, but also families… As are the Cayenne, Macan, Taycan and Panamera (which together far outsell Porsche’s sports cars). And even before that, every early 90s Porsche without an RS badge had back seats. Yet you’re trying to draw a distinction… where?
I forget we’re on the cusp of an energy transition? I do not, but again…

I’d like to rephrase I’ll try to respond, but I’m not getting a thesis that makes sense?

 

[PetevB]

I completely agree to a point. The engineering is far and away what you are buying. The luxury is only the clientele the brand is catering to. Porsche is all about form and function. The WORST car audio system was in my Porsche 911 Turbo.

Porsche is is the luxury car market due to quality and price point, but most forget these cars were developed primarily as tools. Spend time in Germany and the 911 Turbo makes complete sense- it’s designed to get you to your business meeting in Frankfurt from Düsseldorf on an unrestricted autobahn, and to do that in any weather as safely, comfortably and quickly as practical. And it’s probably the best tool on the planet for that- big gas tank for range, four wheel drive in case it rains or snows, quiet and planted at speed, PDK so you don’t need to think about shifts, etc. Do you need a top end stereo to fulfill that mission? No, though you might want one, so Porsche will let you option it.

Unfortunately the rest of the world doesn’t have Autobahns. We recognize the capability and quality, but the 911 Turbo wasn’t designed for us or the missions we have here in the US at all. And “luxury” from the typical US perspective is not what Porsche is optimizing for.

 

[hmp10]

Porsche is is the luxury car market due to quality and price point, but most forget these cars were developed primarily as tools. Spend time in Germany and the 911 Turbo makes complete sense- it’s designed to get you to your business meeting in Frankfurt from Düsseldorf on an unrestricted autobahn, and to do that in any weather as safely, comfortably and quickly as practical. And it’s probably the best tool on the planet for that- big gas tank for range, four wheel drive in case it rains or snows, quiet and planted at speed, PDK so you don’t need to think about shifts, etc. Do you need a top end stereo to fulfill that mission? No, though you might want one, so Porsche will let you option it.

Unfortunately the rest of the world doesn’t have Autobahns. We recognize the capability and quality, but the 911 Turbo wasn’t designed for us or the missions we have here in the US at all. And “luxury” from the typical US perspective is not what Porsche is optimizing for.

It's also the reason that the big German luxury sedans from MB, BMW, and Audi have class-leading rear seat room and comfort. German executives are far more likely to use cars for domestic business travel than their U.S. counterparts who prefer planes due to greater distances.

When we switched our corporate limo fleet from Town Cars to S-Class MBs back in the day, the improvement in rear comfort and ride quality (sometimes unhappily measured by car sickness levels) was quite pronounced.

 

[WeighingGravity]

Just one note on here to comment on a stat I've seen thrown around on this site a lot without further context, and that I think is worth at least mentioning....

Airs started outselling Taycans only after Taycan sales plummeted, most likely due to the announcement of a revised model. I'm cautious to dunk on the Taycan and declare the sedan wars over until we see what starts happening with the new Taycan.

Also agree with PeteVB that Airs are selling with humongous discounts.

 

[PetevB]

It's also the reason that the big German luxury sedans from MB, BMW, and Audi have class-leading rear seat room and comfort. German executives are far more likely to use cars for domestic business travel than their U.S. counterparts who prefer planes due to greater distances.

When we switched our corporate limo fleet from Town Cars to S-Class MBs back in the day, the improvement in rear comfort and ride quality (sometimes unhappily measured by car sickness levels) was quite pronounced.

The autobahn is also likely the reason the Germans lagged in the EV revolution despite having the strongest engineering foundation from which to build.

Back in the day when I lived in Germany my cruise speed on unrestricted autobahns varied from a bit north of 120 mph in for example Audi wagons, to north of 150 on early mornings in my M3. I once did where I lived to Frankfurt in 58 minutes. From gas station to door it was 152 miles, and I was limited not by the car's ultimate speed but by the size of the gas tank- I had to back off to avoid running out of fuel.

I say this because point to point on the Autobahn even the best EVs are highly questionable propositions. Even keeping up with traffic on the Autobahn a Taycan's full charge range is going to drop below 100 miles. Bouncing from 10%-80% in ~16 minutes, then covering 100 miles at 120 mph or whatever (didn't do the numbers), then charging again gives you a speed across ground of <100 mph. Your average crappy diesel station wagon's going to beat your 200k Taycan Turbo S in that use case. Hence their push for fast charging, but also the reason they really struggled buying into EVs in the first place.

 

[momo3605]

I just came across this post from Tom Moloughney of "State of Charge" renown:

View attachment 28095

It brought to mind a recent comment by Jason Cammisa on a "Carmudgeon" podcast, where he said that Lucid joins Porsche as the only other carmaker to get suspension dynamics and real-wheel steering right, to the point that the Lucid might be beginning to make sports cars obsolete. And this, in turn, brought to mind an earlier discussion we used to have on this forum about whether Lucid's business model falls more naturally into the Porsche mold than into the mass market role.

With the launch of the Gravity and the teasing of the mid-size Earth to follow, recent conversation has been peppered more with assumptions that Lucid is heading toward becoming a mass market player, especially with Saudi Arabia's announced goal of becoming a global hub of the automotive industry.

One thing over a hundred years of automotive history has taught us is that engineering in a company with its eye on the mass market can be a different beast from engineering in a specialty house. Mercedes' stumbles in bringing EVs to market, BMW's loss of its "ultimate driving machine" luster, and Cadillac's earlier transition from a leading automotive engineering house to a chrome-fins-and-gizmo shop are all emblematic of what happens when sales volume concerns move ahead of engineering focus on the priority list.

But Porsche -- almost alone among major automakers -- is proving that an automaker can remain in a relatively small market niche, can expand its models across a wide array of categories, and can be very profitable . . . all while maintaining its place at the forefront of automotive engineering.

As Lucid transitions from the Rawlinson era, I hope it keeps Porsche's path more in its sights than Tesla's.

As I've been saying for a long time. Lucid needs to start focusing on "sport" "performance" oriented options if they want to be successful following the Porsche model. If you look at a Taycan configurator, there's a subsection for Performance options, and they have all sorts of goodies for customers that was that added sport flair. Sport Chrono with push to pass and additional drive modes, rear axle steer, different types of brakes (steel, PSCB, CCB), Sport Seats, Sport Plus seats, 18-ways, buckets, Different kinds of wheels/tires from All Season to higher efficiency, to all out forged lightweight rims, and Cup 2s...different suspension options, PASM, Sport PASM, PDCC

Lucid has been focused more on taking a luxury car and giving it good driving dynamics. This doesn't make a Porsche competitor though. Lucid has all the right ingredients though! See Sapphire! Take the sport buckets, the steering rack, the wheel/tire options, and put them on the lower end Airs! The fact that an 800hp GT comes with max 245/265 width efficiency-oriented tires is how out of sight they are from making a true Sport Sedan.

 

[BS8899]

Are you forgetting that Tesla launched with the Model S and followed with Model X? OK, actually they launched with an even less practical and relatively MORE expensive car (the Roadster), but the point stands. That is exactly the same game plan Lucid is running now…seems that Tesla initially being “expensive and super unknown” didn’t hurt their future…

Let's not forget that Tesla had its sights on high-volume, cost effective manufacturing almost 2 decades ago! Tesla invested heavily in building batteries/battery packs, Gigacast, international factories, world-wide distribution and service centers, charging stations, etc.. These are major factors that contribute to their world dominance (at least until now).

Lucid's mechanical/electro-mechanical engineering are great. For mass-market, I think they over-engineered their cars which results in higher cost and longer TTM. In SW, Lucid is a laggard. Honestly, Lucid is not in Tesla's league!

I am NOT a Tesla fan. Even though I facilitated my garage for two EVs since 2009 and I test drove practically most of the EV-offerings during the 2010's, Lucid Air GT was my first EV in 2022.

 

[Cosmo Cruz]

thought the plan was to license the hardware and let others build cars

problems is, I don't see ANY EV that is as good as my Lucid ... or even a hint of such

 

[BS8899]

thought the plan was to license the hardware and let others build cars

Well, Lucid is buying up more manufacturing space in AZ (Nikola Bankruptcy). Not sure what Lucid's plans are.

To participate meaningfully in the <$50,000 segments, there is an enormous amount of work ahead of them!

I am sure there are interest in their compact power-train. Chances are, these designs are at a premium. Consequently, the volume will be small.