What’s your estimate - Gravity volume for 2025

[Buffalo Bob]

While I anticipate overall success, I think Lucid will be compelled to begin sales of the base model far sooner than they originally predicted.

 

[Adnillien]

Lucid has told us that the factory expansion increased production capacity to 90k cars annually. The Air has certainly been demand constrained since 2023. From the number of inventory cars at Casa Grande, it looks like Lucid has already started to ramp Air production in anticipation of Gravity production. If things go well with Gravity sales, Lucid will be capacity constrained for 2025 and 2026 as they slowly ramp production. Lucid made a mistake and overestimated the long term demand for Air and ramped production too fast and then had to layoff employees and scale production back. I doubt Lucid will make that mistake again.

Body in White assembly is heavily automated so Gravity and Air run a separate body in white lines. General assembly is flexible and can handle either Air or Gravity, or Mid-size for that matter, on the same line. Gravity and Air will run on the same general assembly line. They will not interrupt each other but total production of both will be limited by the slow factory capacity ramp. During the Sunday delivery event, the factory was not running and we were allowed to walk the general assembly line. There were no Gravity on the General assembly line. Don't read too much into that because there is probably only two days worth of production on the general assembly line at any time.

I expect to see Air inventory build during Jan and Feb before Gravity starts to takeover the majority of general assembly capacity. After that I expect to see Air inventory start to come back down.

 

[Adnillien]

While I anticipate overall success, I think Lucid will be compelled to begin sales of the base model far sooner than they originally predicted.

Lucid will start production of the base Touring model before GT production is demand constrained. Looking at the fairly low volume estimates above, timing of late 2025 for Touring seems consistent with the expected ramp plans.

 

[BS8899]

I am not at all familiar with the lease market and lease returns.

Q: with the many Lucid Airs on lease, how would these lease returns in the coming 12-18 months affect Lucid's sales on both the Air and the Gravity?

For example, if I can get a 2-3 year old Air with less than 30,000 miles for $40k, wouldn't that be a great way to enjoy Lucid's technology without spending 6 figures or an (presumably) expensive lease on the Gravity?

Or would most of these lease-returns be sold overseas?

 

[tonybot]

Lucid will start production of the base Touring model before GT production is demand constrained. Looking at the fairly low volume estimates above, timing of late 2025 for Touring seems consistent with the expected ramp plans.

Does Saudi factory play a role in helping to ramp Air and Gravity production as needed, even if they are just assembling kits?

 

[Adnillien]

The Saudi factory could ship to Europe in addition to KSA but so far the European sales have been fairly small but increasing. Still I don't think the Saudi factory will play a role on the 2025 Gravity ramp. Its a guess on my part so I may be completely wrong.

 

[Batteryman]

I own a 2023 Rivian R1S. It is a great SUV. Sure, it is inferior to the Lucid when it comes to efficiency, cabin appointment, acceleration, and ride comfort. But, it is a very rugged TRUE SUV. Inasmuch as it is inferior to the Lucid in terms of efficiency, in normal usage, it routinely meets and exceeds its efficiency metrics. And its SW works! I still dislike Rivian's dismissal of CarPlay and Android Auto. But it is hard to argue, the SW on Rivian actually works! In comparison, the Lucid falls short of its SW metrics. In the end, the issue with SW and interfaces is not about whether Rivian or Lucid is right or wrong in their Sw choices. Most consumers don't want to re-learn the SW they are accustomed to, i.e., their iPhone or their Android phone. They want their maps, navigation, music, contacts etc. the same as on their phones. And don't get me started on Hey Lucid!

Although I come across as critical of the Lucid, I actually think MECHNICALLY, the Lucid Air is a great car. The electronics and SW drive me bananas! It is simply amateurish! This is a rotten shame. Lucid's roots are in electrical and mechanical engineering. And they excel in those departments. But they need to get with the times and deliver a full-function, integrated, SW/Electronic/Electrometrical product. I hope Gravity is that....but I haven't seen the proof yet!

I'm sure Lucid learned from their initial Air software debacle. Hence to slow release of the Gravity. I would rather they take it slow and get it perfect. End of 2025 they will introduce the midsize at the LA auto show. Once Atlas motor specs are finalized, they will announce partnership with a major ICE manufacturer. Lots of other reasons to be optimistic going into 2026, not just the Gravity- speaking as a shareholder.

I expect 6-8k Gravity deliveries in 2025, 15k in 2026.

 

[Batteryman]

I am not at all familiar with the lease market and lease returns.

Q: with the many Lucid Airs on lease, how would these lease returns in the coming 12-18 months affect Lucid's sales on both the Air and the Gravity?

For example, if I can get a 2-3 year old Air with less than 30,000 miles for $40k, wouldn't that be a great way to enjoy Lucid's technology without spending 6 figures or an (presumably) expensive lease on the Gravity?

Or would most of these lease-returns be sold overseas?

Gravity has more appeal in a SUV world, and it has augmented heads up display, OLED screens, rear wheel sterring, 7 seater, updated software, air suspension- all these are not available for the Air. I see why many would consider the Gravity over a used Air.

 

[BS8899]

Gravity has more appeal in a SUV world, and it has augmented heads up display, OLED screens, rear wheel sterring, 7 seater, updated software, air suspension- all these are not available for the Air. I see why many would consider the Gravity over a used Air.

True.....a SUV with up-to-date displays/navigation is more desirable. The question is, whether it is affordable @$120k.

BTW,my 2017 Lexus 450RX SUV (2 rows, 5P), which I traded in for my Rivian R1S, had HUD, equivalent or better than Lucid's recently deployed HA package, etc.. Inasmuch as I appalud Lucid's recent deployment of these technologies (HUD, HA, etc.) please remember they've been around on other vehicles for almost a dedcade! As many of the reviews show, Lucid's has progressed, but is still behind many of its competitors in these areas.

 

[Blue Lectroid]

I am not at all familiar with the lease market and lease returns.

Q: with the many Lucid Airs on lease, how would these lease returns in the coming 12-18 months affect Lucid's sales on both the Air and the Gravity?

For example, if I can get a 2-3 year old Air with less than 30,000 miles for $40k, wouldn't that be a great way to enjoy Lucid's technology without spending 6 figures or an (presumably) expensive lease on the Gravity?

Or would most of these lease-returns be sold overseas?

Or bought by the original lessee? That’s what I am planning on doing…

 

[michel]

I don't know that Lucid could make a dramatic perfect debut on Gravity. Perhaps it could. As a shareholder, I wish it would.

But I have not seen evidence of it.

I am not a SW guy. Many of you know about SW far more than I will learn in the rest of my life.

That said, from my years of my organization building and shipping hardware and software products, I don't see the culture and discipline in Lucid's history that engender confidence.

Look at the recent 2.4.X rollout. That smells of unstructured development and validation processes.

Could it be dramatically different on Gravity?

Perhaps! And I'd love to see that.

Go ahead and make my day!

I’m a software person - but on the infrastructure side, not the product side. Still, I agree - companies don’t change their engineering culture overnight.

I expect Gravity to have the hardware/software combination more worked out than Air but it won’t be perfect. Still … that’s why I want CarPlay and Android Auto support.

(Hedging the bet here, I’m an Android user personally but have switched to an iPhone at work for the situations like this where it works better)

I’m glad the HUD made it as an option on the Gravity - here’s to hoping a future Air refresh and the midsize models will have it as options too

 

[FA14]

Or bought by the original lessee? That’s what I am planning on doing…

Or bought by the original lessee? That’s what I am planning on doing…

My 18-month lease on the 2023 AWD Pure ends on October 10, this year with a residual purchase price of $49k, based on the allowed 7,500 miles. I've already seen similar cars listed for around $50k at 4-5k miles for 2023 models, so I'm hoping the leasing department might offer a better purchase price at that time. I'll evaluate the offer then, but for now, I plan to return the car during the first week of October.

 

[BS8899]

My 18-month lease on the 2023 AWD Pure ends on October 10, this year with a residual purchase price of $49k, based on the allowed 7,500 miles. I've already seen similar cars listed for around $50k at 4-5k miles for 2023 models, so I'm hoping the leasing department might offer a better purchase price at that time. I'll evaluate the offer then, but for now, I plan to return the car during the first week of October.

I've never leased a car before. Looking at the massive erosion of the value of EVs in general, and Lucids in particular, leasing seems to make more sense.

 

[Blue Lectroid]

My 18-month lease on the 2023 AWD Pure ends on October 10, this year with a residual purchase price of $49k, based on the allowed 7,500 miles. I've already seen similar cars listed for around $50k at 4-5k miles for 2023 models, so I'm hoping the leasing department might offer a better purchase price at that time. I'll evaluate the offer then, but for now, I plan to return the car during the first week of October.

For me, it’s more about “try before you buy” than getting the getting the absolute best price. I baby my cars. I take extreme pride in them and caring for them well. I also KNOW the service history. So, if at the end of the lease my residual is a couple thousand more than the going rate for a car of similar mileage? I’d buy it anyway because the devil I know is a lot better than saving a few bucks, buying used and then getting a car with issues.

Of course all of this supposes that my car itself doesn’t have issues AND that three years from now some new Lucid isn’t soooo much better than my car that I’d rather drive that…

 

[FA14]

For me, it’s more about “try before you buy” than getting the getting the absolute best price. I baby my cars. I take extreme pride in them and caring for them well. I also KNOW the service history. So, if at the end of the lease my residual is a couple thousand more than the going rate for a car of similar mileage? I’d buy it anyway because the devil I know is a lot better than saving a few bucks, buying used and then getting a car with issues.

Of course all of this supposes that my car itself doesn’t have issues AND that three years from now some new Lucid isn’t soooo much better than my car that I’d rather drive that…

I completely agree with you. I would also prefer to buy a car that I’m familiar with, both its strengths and issues. My point is that current pricing for similar models has already reached the level of their residual value at lease end. This could provide a better opportunity to negotiate if you decide to purchase the car when the lease expires.

 

[Batteryman]

True.....a SUV with up-to-date displays/navigation is more desirable. The question is, whether it is affordable @$120k.

BTW,my 2017 Lexus 450RX SUV (2 rows, 5P), which I traded in for my Rivian R1S, had HUD, equivalent or better than Lucid's recently deployed HA package, etc.. Inasmuch as I appalud Lucid's recent deployment of these technologies (HUD, HA, etc.) please remember they've been around on other vehicles for almost a dedcade! As many of the reviews show, Lucid's has progressed, but is still behind many of its competitors in these areas.

Agree,price point might be an issue.

 

[Batteryman]

I've never leased a car before. Looking at the massive erosion of the value of EVs in general, and Lucids in particular, leasing seems to make more sense.

In AZ, HOV plates for EVs goes away in Sept 2025, I need that for commute, would have leased if not for this issue. If you already have a plate prior, you are grandfathered in.

 

[Blue Lectroid]

I completely agree with you. I would also prefer to buy a car that I’m familiar with, both its strengths and issues. My point is that current pricing for similar models has already reached the level of their residual value at lease end. This could provide a better opportunity to negotiate if you decide to purchase the car when the lease expires.

It may, although in speaking with my Lucid inside sales guy during the process, he said that on the leases that have come back so far there was no willingness to negotiate on the residual...we'll see if that stands when the volume of terminating leases is 10X what it is now...

 

[larrycpa]

It may, although in speaking with my Lucid inside sales guy during the process, he said that on the leases that have come back so far there was no willingness to negotiate on the residual...we'll see if that stands when the volume of terminating leases is 10X what it is now...

The problem is, we didn't lease from Lucid directly. I think, and I could be mistaken, that Lucid booked our leases as sales to Lucid Financing which is a joint venture with B of A. Since there is s no dealer network to handle returns they have been wholesaling them. To minimize their losses it may be more cost effective to start selling the returns directly since the wholesale price will be lower than retail. It all depends on what the cost structure is and how those sales will impact the sales of new Airs.

 

[NNPCdude]

Or bought by the original lessee? That’s what I am planning on doing…

Thats what I am planning to do as well, contingent on availability of extended warranty from Lucid