What’s your estimate - Gravity volume for 2025

[FA14]

Kicking off this Gravity Sales Volume thread at the start of the year!

Lucid leadership has indicated that the Gravity could target up to 6x the market share of the Lucid Air—roughly 50,000 units.

Given the initial response to the launch price near $100k and its "minivan-like" reception, how do you all see sales playing out? Consider Lucid’s ability to scale manufacturing, current market conditions, and potential challenges with initial production/quality and service issues.

My guesstimate for the first full year is around 5k units. How do you all think this will impact the stock price and valuation going forward?

Vote below as a response, and let’s keep the discussion respectful—curious to hear everyone’s numbers!

Poll:
1. 3-5k units
2. 6k-10k units
3. 11k-20k units
4. 21k+ units

 

[Blue Lectroid]

Kicking off this Gravity Sales Volume thread at the start of the year!

Lucid leadership has indicated that the Gravity could target up to 6x the market share of the Lucid Air—roughly 50,000 units.

Given the initial response to the launch price near $100k and its "minivan-like" reception, how do you all see sales playing out? Consider Lucid’s ability to scale manufacturing, current market conditions, and potential challenges with initial production/quality and service issues.

My guesstimate for the first full year is around 5k units. How do you all think this will impact the stock price and valuation going forward?

Vote below as a response, and let’s keep the discussion respectful—curious to hear everyone’s numbers!

Poll:
1. 3-5k units
2. 6k-10k units
3. 11k-20k units
4. 21k+

I think they will do 15k units, but be on a run rate well over 20k per year by the fourth quarter…

I think valuation is a slow build (with volatility along the way) until they turn cash positive and release / deliver the mid-priced car at scale in late 2026 / early 2027…

 

[Adnillien]

I am thinking Lucid will ramp production from around the current 1000 cars per month to 2000 cars per month by the end of 2025. Assuming a fairly linear ramp and slight growth in Air sales, Gravity production and sales will be between 8k and 9k for.

 

[BS8899]

Kicking off this Gravity Sales Volume thread at the start of the year!

Lucid leadership has indicated that the Gravity could target up to 6x the market share of the Lucid Air—roughly 50,000 units.

Given the initial response to the launch price near $100k and its "minivan-like" reception, how do you all see sales playing out? Consider Lucid’s ability to scale manufacturing, current market conditions, and potential challenges with initial production/quality and service issues.

My guesstimate for the first full year is around 5k units. How do you all think this will impact the stock price and valuation going forward?

Vote below as a response, and let’s keep the discussion respectful—curious to hear everyone’s numbers!

Poll:
1. 3-5k units
2. 6k-10k units
3. 11k-20k units
4. 21k+ units

I think Gravity is an attractive product. I trust it will be "Best-in-Class" amongst EV SUVs (and EV mini-vans....Ok, its a joke! don't lynch me!)

That said, I think there are a number of obstacles along the way that would limit the actual sales in the first year.

[1] the price point...@$100k or so, plus a lot of potential add on's, you are looking at $115-$125k out-the-door. As such, you are going against competitors in the $80k-$100k all options included range.
[2] Lucid's year-end publicity of "shipping Gravity in 2024" is good PR. Since all the "Production Gravity" recipients are employees (presumably high level employees) and friends, I think they will all be "satisfied customers". Now comes the hard part...shipping to reviewers and real consumers.
[3] Gravity is supposed to have a faster computer. That's great! But faster computers won't mitigate bad SW. That's still their Archilles Heel.
[4] To date, I have not seen an "unsupervised independent review" of the Gravity yet. And none of the recent reviews included the electronics and SW. Makes you wonder!

My guess for 2025 sales would be on the low end of #2, i.e., closer to 6-7kU.

As a shareholder, I hope I am wrong.

 

[DrLucid]

I think Gravity is an attractive product. I trust it will be "Best-in-Class" amongst EV SUVs (and EV mini-vans....Ok, its a joke! don't lynch me!)

That said, I think there are a number of obstacles along the way that would limit the actual sales in the first year.

[1] the price point...@$100k or so, plus a lot of potential add on's, you are looking at $115-$125k out-the-door. As such, you are going against competitors in the $80k-$100k all options included range.
[2] Lucid's year-end publicity of "shipping Gravity in 2024" is good PR. Since all the "Production Gravity" recipients are employees (presumably high level employees) and friends, I think they will all be "satisfied customers". Now comes the hard part...shipping to reviewers and real consumers.
[3] Gravity is supposed to have a faster computer. That's great! But faster computers won't mitigate bad SW. That's still their Archilles Heel.
[4] To date, I have not seen an "unsupervised independent review" of the Gravity yet. And none of the recent reviews included the electronics and SW. Makes you wonder!

My guess for 2025 sales would be on the low end of #2, i.e., closer to 6-7kU.

As a shareholder, I hope I am wrong.

That sounds very logical and mostly correct.
Good logical break down

 

[Blue Lectroid]

That sounds very logical and mostly correct.
Good logical break down

Only place the logic fails for me in @BS8899’s post (which otherwise makes a lot of sense) is being a shareholder with that kind of sales volume projection…

My own forecast (15k) is admittedly on the rosy side, but I do believe it’s possible. I too am a shareholder, but perhaps I’m OVERLY optimistic!

 

[BS8899]

Only place the logic fails for me in @BS8899’s post (which otherwise makes a lot of sense) is being a shareholder with that kind of sales volume projection…

My own forecast (15k) is admittedly on the rosy side, but I do believe it’s possible. I too am a shareholder, but perhaps I’m OVERLY optimistic!

I hope you are right and I am wrong!

If Lucid stock goes to $50, I will go buy a Gravity and do my part to increase the revenue!

Deal?!

 

[FA14]

That sounds very logical and mostly correct.
Good logical break down

Totally agree!
The $100k+ price tag will likely be a deal breaker for many families, and also for potential single young buyers looking for a EV SUV with best in class mileage range. Personally, I wouldn't consider the Gravity or even the Model X as an SUV option—Range Rover or Rivian, definitely .

It's a shame Lucid didn’t take into account the needs of non-family buyers when designing this "mini van style SUV."

I think Gravity is an attractive product. I trust it will be "Best-in-Class" amongst EV SUVs (and EV mini-vans....Ok, its a joke! don't lynch me!)

That said, I think there are a number of obstacles along the way that would limit the actual sales in the first year.

[1] the price point...@$100k or so, plus a lot of potential add on's, you are looking at $115-$125k out-the-door. As such, you are going against competitors in the $80k-$100k all options included range.
[2] Lucid's year-end publicity of "shipping Gravity in 2024" is good PR. Since all the "Production Gravity" recipients are employees (presumably high level employees) and friends, I think they will all be "satisfied customers". Now comes the hard part...shipping to reviewers and real consumers.
[3] Gravity is supposed to have a faster computer. That's great! But faster computers won't mitigate bad SW. That's still their Archilles Heel.
[4] To date, I have not seen an "unsupervised independent review" of the Gravity yet. And none of the recent reviews included the electronics and SW. Makes you wonder!

My guess for 2025 sales would be on the low end of #2, i.e., closer to 6-7kU.

As a shareholder, I hope I am wrong.

I totally agree with your honest and logical response. 5-7k is my estimate as well for the first full year of production. Let’s hope for the best for Lucid and all the others out there.

 

[NoseyReporter]

I don't want to play this game and put a number inside everyone's heads.

 

[Gravitas]

I am estimating production of 6-10K in 2025.
Because they are closely watching quality, ramp-up will be slow.
I'll order mine for delivery in mid-2026. Hope they'll have Zenith Red by then.

 

[FA14]

I hope you are right and I am wrong!

If Lucid stock goes to $50, I will go buy a Gravity and do my part to increase the revenue!

Deal?!

Rivian’s stock jumped from $10 to $16 after hitting 50k vehicles in 2024, plus their new Model Y competitor R2/R3 coming in 2026.
To hit the mid-teens like that, Lucid would probably need to produce around atleast 30-50k vehicles a year….which I seriously doubt they can hit with the current 2 models.

They’d also need to show they can stay profitable and keep growing. A solid new model or two, similar to Rivian's future plans, would help a lot.

Essentially, hitting strong volume and proving they’re financially healthy could get them to that stock price. That being said - $50 stock price maybe is possible if they scale up to 250k vehicles a year.

 

[yadaBaga]

I'm in the first bucket: 3k - 5k units for 2025. Anything more would be a welcome surprise. My armchair analysis:

1. A careful production ramp up likely means a slow trickle till Summer, so most of this is going to be in second half of the year. I could see 500 units in first 6 months (2-3/day on average) and then ~4k in second half (~20/day, which is about what Air production rate is).

2. Market size for $100k+ SUVs is just not that large. I estimated it to be under 100k units and hard to believe that Lucid will take more than 5% of that market in the first year. Several strong, established brands (like Porsche, Land Rover, Mercedes, BMW...) with loyal followings. Even if you could convince lots of people that Gravity is a better overall product (which I think it is), conversion will take a while.

 

[michel]

I think they will do 15k units, but be on a run rate well over 20k per year by the fourth quarter…

I think valuation is a slow build (with volatility along the way) until they turn cash positive and release / deliver the mid-priced car at scale in late 2026 / early 2027…

I’m a shareholder, and once the midsize sedan ships I might sell my EV6 ahead of schedule and buy it! (Or the upcoming BMW i3 but I suspect Lucid will win in interior space)

 

[BS8899]

Rivian did 50k volume in 2024 and now their stock jumped to $16 from a low of $10 in the last few weeks. They are also launching the mid size Model Y competitor models in mid 2026. Just wondering how much volume Lucid needs to pump out to even get to mid teens.

I own a 2023 Rivian R1S. It is a great SUV. Sure, it is inferior to the Lucid when it comes to efficiency, cabin appointment, acceleration, and ride comfort. But, it is a very rugged TRUE SUV. Inasmuch as it is inferior to the Lucid in terms of efficiency, in normal usage, it routinely meets and exceeds its efficiency metrics. And its SW works! I still dislike Rivian's dismissal of CarPlay and Android Auto. But it is hard to argue, the SW on Rivian actually works! In comparison, the Lucid falls short of its SW metrics. In the end, the issue with SW and interfaces is not about whether Rivian or Lucid is right or wrong in their Sw choices. Most consumers don't want to re-learn the SW they are accustomed to, i.e., their iPhone or their Android phone. They want their maps, navigation, music, contacts etc. the same as on their phones. And don't get me started on Hey Lucid!

Although I come across as critical of the Lucid, I actually think MECHNICALLY, the Lucid Air is a great car. The electronics and SW drive me bananas! It is simply amateurish! This is a rotten shame. Lucid's roots are in electrical and mechanical engineering. And they excel in those departments. But they need to get with the times and deliver a full-function, integrated, SW/Electronic/Electrometrical product. I hope Gravity is that....but I haven't seen the proof yet!

 

[Bobby]

I think Gravity is an attractive product. I trust it will be "Best-in-Class" amongst EV SUVs (and EV mini-vans....Ok, its a joke! don't lynch me!)

That said, I think there are a number of obstacles along the way that would limit the actual sales in the first year.

[1] the price point...@$100k or so, plus a lot of potential add on's, you are looking at $115-$125k out-the-door. As such, you are going against competitors in the $80k-$100k all options included range.

They will start at $80k per Lucid.

[2] Lucid's year-end publicity of "shipping Gravity in 2024" is good PR. Since all the "Production Gravity" recipients are employees (presumably high level employees) and friends, I think they will all be "satisfied customers". Now comes the hard part...shipping to reviewers and real consumers.
[3] Gravity is supposed to have a faster computer. That's great! But faster computers won't mitigate bad SW. That's still their Archilles Heel.

How do you know this? Perhaps they've solved the Air's software problems in the Gravity.

[4] To date, I have not seen an "unsupervised independent review" of the Gravity yet. And none of the recent reviews included the electronics and SW. Makes you wonder!

Coming soon, I'm sure.

My guess for 2025 sales would be on the low end of #2, i.e., closer to 6-7kU.

I guess 11,469.

As a shareholder, I hope I am wrong.

Me too.

 

[BS8899]

They will start at $80k per Lucid.

How do you know this? Perhaps they've solved the Air's software problems in the Gravity.

Coming soon, I'm sure.

I guess 11,469.

Me too.

I don't know that Lucid could make a dramatic perfect debut on Gravity. Perhaps it could. As a shareholder, I wish it would.

But I have not seen evidence of it.

I am not a SW guy. Many of you know about SW far more than I will learn in the rest of my life.

That said, from my years of my organization building and shipping hardware and software products, I don't see the culture and discipline in Lucid's history that engender confidence.

Look at the recent 2.4.X rollout. That smells of unstructured development and validation processes.

Could it be dramatically different on Gravity?

Perhaps! And I'd love to see that.

Go ahead and make my day!

 

[DrLucid]

A really insightful conversation. From my stand point you are spot on.
The reason I loved lucid air was the handling and the sleekness, didn’t initially care much about the tech beyond the basics.
It’s about time they start giving it out to people beyond the team lucid management. Sooner they do it it would be better for the sales target to also help with the stock price.

 

[Blue Lectroid]

I hope you are right and I am wrong!

If Lucid stock goes to $50, I will go buy a Gravity and do my part to increase the revenue!

Deal?!

I will too! Deal!! BTW, I DO think LCID goes to 50…it’s the when that I have no idea of!!!

 

[Blue Lectroid]

I own a 2023 Rivian R1S. It is a great SUV. Sure, it is inferior to the Lucid when it comes to efficiency, cabin appointment, acceleration, and ride comfort. But, it is a very rugged TRUE SUV. Inasmuch as it is inferior to the Lucid in terms of efficiency, in normal usage, it routinely meets and exceeds its efficiency metrics. And its SW works! I still dislike Rivian's dismissal of CarPlay and Android Auto. But it is hard to argue, the SW on Rivian actually works! In comparison, the Lucid falls short of its SW metrics. In the end, the issue with SW and interfaces is not about whether Rivian or Lucid is right or wrong in their Sw choices. Most consumers don't want to re-learn the SW they are accustomed to, i.e., their iPhone or their Android phone. They want their maps, navigation, music, contacts etc. the same as on their phones. And don't get me started on Hey Lucid!

Although I come across as critical of the Lucid, I actually think MECHNICALLY, the Lucid Air is a great car. The electronics and SW drive me bananas! It is simply amateurish! This is a rotten shame. Lucid's roots are in electrical and mechanical engineering. And they excel in those departments. But they need to get with the times and deliver a full-function, integrated, SW/Electronic/Electrometrical product. I hope Gravity is that....but I haven't seen the proof yet!

I will be brief because I do not want to derail the thread, but my 2025 AGT has had ZERO software issues. I find it far more agreeable from a UX perspective than my prior Tesla M3P. I think that the current version of Lucid’s software is far better than folks give it credit for…

 

[BS8899]

I am thinking Lucid will ramp production from around the current 1000 cars per month to 2000 cars per month by the end of 2025. Assuming a fairly linear ramp and slight growth in Air sales, Gravity production and sales will be between 8k and 9k for.

You have been doing aerial reconnaissance on the Lucid Factory for a while.

Q:
Lucid's Air series output this past calendar year (2024) was ~10k units of Air, is that correct? Was that number factory or sales limited?

As they retool and ramp Gravity, do they have to stop or curtail Air production?

In terms of addressable market, has the Air Sedan run its course? In 2024, weren't many Air were lower trims, and most them were leases? I presume Lucid still have a few thousand Air onhand to sell in 2025.

Even though the Gravity "Starts at $80k", isn't that a stripped-down 5 seater? Everything above that is optional, at a cost, correct?

What's' the size of the US $110k-$125k market?