Q4 2022 Earnings Preview Article

[joec]

It's your sales funnel. Given enough time you will start to develop of feel for the funnel and what your conversion rate is. They are obfuscating this for a reason.

Yes. Thus far, the press has been obsessed with reservation numbers, because Lucid didn’t have much else to talk about. But those numbers don’t tell the story Lucid wants to tell anymore. So they stop releasing them. Give them another number to focus on—either production or deliveries. Those numbers are going to go up instead of down.

The press can only write with authority about what you give them. No sense in handing them a negative. Smart companies do this all the time. It’s not about hiding something. It’s about control over your narrative.

Also, that conversion rate is valuable information. It does make some sense to keep it from competitors.

 

[NoseyReporter]

Yes. Thus far, the press has been obsessed with reservation numbers, because Lucid didn’t have much else to talk about. But those numbers don’t tell the story Lucid wants to tell anymore. So they stop releasing them. Give them another number to focus on—either production or deliveries. Those numbers are going to go up instead of down.

The press can only write with authority about what you give them. No sense in handing them a negative. Smart companies do this all the time. It’s not about hiding something. It’s about control over your narrative.

Also, that conversion rate is valuable information. It does make some sense to keep it from competitors.

Agree but it looks bad is all. As the saying goes, perception is reality.

As bearish as I sound, I still think Lucid has what it takes. But the runway just got a little longer and I the way the flight crew announced it makes me feel uneasy.

 

[blueice89]

Saudi PIF owns 1.1B of 1.8B could they be looking to take out on this price correction?

Saudi Arabia’s Sovereign Fund Ups Stake in Lucid - TipRanks.com

Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund, Public Investment Fund (PIF), has upped its stake in EV company, Lucid Group (NASDAQ: LCID) by 9.2% to 1.11 billion shares in ...

www.tipranks.com

 

[MorganB]

Tesla does not release order backlog. Tesla is also not Lucid's competitor IMHO. I would say Lucid is competing with BMW, Audi and Mercedes both in price point and quality. Tesla is a bit more downmarket and while there is some overlap if you look at the market as "generic EV sedan" particularly with the Model S keep in mind that Tesla doesn't sell a lot of Model S. Their bread and butter is the Model Y and they released the Y 8 years after the S. It takes time to build a brand. Lucid has the money, the vertical integration and the EV platform, it will take time to build brand awareness and trickle tech down to a lower price point. I don't think they are going anywhere considering the deep pockets backing them.

 

[Babyrocko1908]

Yeah, but Tesla is the pioneer. What was the environment back then? I've never heard a single person talking about EVs 10 years ago. Nowadays, manufacturers are spawning EVs like crazy. Do you think Lucid will have time to spare? Or will these competitors give Lucid a chance?

Lucid's sales the first year were more than Telsa made in their first 5 years. And other manufacturers cars cannot touch Lucid's technology. I didn't realize how great this car is until mine was delivered last week and yeah, it's an unbelievable car.

 

[NoseyReporter]

Seeing as how I don't own an Air but own shares. I'm highly dependant on all of the Verified Owners to dedicate more of your free time to being brand ambassadors.

Please.

My hopes of owning a Lucid manufacturer vehicle rests on your shoulders.

 

[Babyrocko1908]

Today the stock goes down, tomorrow they announce going private at $12/share. The company isn't going anywhere.

I have to say that Peter didn't do a great job at answering the questions about production targets. He should have anticipated it and had a solid answeer in place instead of stammering through bad non-answer.

I did notice a bit of him doing that. I thought is he stuttering? He's always so polished.

 

[NoseyReporter]

It’s not his first time stammering lol. The CFO is much better on off the cuff remarks

She handled the call like a champ but then again it was not her first.

She even covered for Peter. When pushed about licensing tech/partnerships aka Aston, Peter proceed to say why he doesn't like the idea because he wants to focus on brand awareness, the air, quality, etc. Almost as if he was slamming the door to anyone who might be interested in licensing or partnering with Lucid.

She had to jump in and make it clear that although the company itself comes first, they are not opposed to it.

 

[blueice89]

I think you can be a brand ambassador without being an owner. I telll eveyone I know including my tesla friends about a Lucid. I have rented cars, test drive several but yet to buy one.

 

[hmp10]

Lucid will stay in business as stated above by @Shuasha. Lucid's issue is somewhat different. Competition is coming up with cars that are good quality and at lower cost. Look at announcements from Genesis and price reduction from tesla- Those provide viable alternatives.

My bet, too, is that Lucid will stay in business because niches of the EV sector -- such as racing -- need its proprietary technology. The question is how much of a factor that technology will come to play in the wider market.

As new EVs hit the market, I'm astonished at how relatively primitive their technology remains relative to Lucid's. Tesla is still on a 400-volt platform with motors that have only a small fraction of Lucid's volumetric and weight power ratios. The cabin of the Model S -- virtually identical in exterior dimensions to the Air -- is downright cramped compared to an Air.

Mercedes' flagship EQS has a wheelbase 10 inches longer than an Air, but with no more interior room and a front trunk that is crammed with powertrain gear they could find nowhere else to stuff, even though the car produces much less power -- and range -- than an Air.

The new BMW i7 is enormous, with a front hood as long as a '59 Cadillac -- again stuffed with powertrain gear in a car that produces half the power of a Lucid GT-P and much less range.

When I first threw in heavily on Lucid stock, I was assuming the market would quickly embrace the incredibly efficient and compact powertrain technology Lucid brought to the party. However, with the continuing introduction of bulky, lumbering EV models into the luxury EV space -- especially from the Germans who have dominated the luxury space in the ICE world -- I'm beginning to wonder whether most customers really care all that much about technology.

 

[hmp10]

When pushed about licensing tech/partnerships aka Aston, Peter proceed to say why he doesn't like the idea because he wants to focus on brand awareness, the air, quality, etc. Almost as if he was slamming the door to anyone who might be interested in licensing or partnering with Lucid.

Unfortunately, this might reflect not Rawlinson slamming the door on licensing Lucid technology, but rather the door being slammed on him by other manufacturers.

In the early days, the potential to license Lucid technology was touted by Rawlinson as one of the most promising revenue lines in the business model. As more EVs enter the market, it seems that each manufacturer views powertrain technology as core to their future and intends to move ahead on their own. This despite the fact that so many, even a startup like Rivian, buy some of their key components from other manufacturers (such as Bosch), albeit not manufacturers who also make cars.

 

[hydbob]

I think you can be a brand ambassador without being an owner. I telll eveyone I know including my tesla friends about a Lucid. I have rented cars, test drive several but yet to buy one.

Nothing screams brand ambassador more than spending money on a competitor...

 

[AirDoll]

I think you can be a brand ambassador without being an owner. I telll eveyone I know including my tesla friends about a Lucid. I have rented cars, test drive several but yet to buy one.

No, you really can’t. You can be an investor and believe in the company, but you can’t be a “brand ambassador” I really can’t imagine you talking about Lucid to your Tesla “friends” as much as you talk about your Tesla to us in here. Either put your money where your mouth is and buy a Lucid, or don’t. Your choice if you really want to be a Brand Ambassador.

And are we REALLY discussing in here Peters speech pattern?! Come on guys, we are better than that.

 

[DBV]

Tesla does not release order backlog. Tesla is also not Lucid's competitor IMHO. I would say Lucid is competing with BMW, Audi and Mercedes both in price point and quality. Tesla is a bit more downmarket and while there is some overlap if you look at the market as "generic EV sedan" particularly with the Model S keep in mind that Tesla doesn't sell a lot of Model S. Their bread and butter is the Model Y and they released the Y 8 years after the S. It takes time to build a brand. Lucid has the money, the vertical integration and the EV platform, it will take time to build brand awareness and trickle tech down to a lower price point. I don't think they are going anywhere considering the deep pockets backing them.

IMHO - Tesla most definitely is their competitor, as well as any other EV. They are by far and away the EV market leader that everyone compares itself too and wants a piece of the pie. Since I own a refresh Model S, I most definitely would cross shop the Lucid Air and when they come out the new BMW i5 and Audi E6 EV or just keeping my Model S or upgrade if there is another improved version of the Model S.

Outside of people on this forum, hardly anyone in the general pubic even knows what a Lucid Air is. They all know Tesla, BMW, Audi, etc though.

 

[jabbahop]

IMHO - Tesla most definitely is their competitor, as well as any other EV. They are by far and away the EV market leader that everyone compares itself too and wants a piece of the pie. Since I own a refresh Model S, I most definitely would cross shop the Lucid Air and when they come out the new BMW i5 and Audi E6 EV or just keeping my Model S or upgrade if there is another improved version of the Model S.

Outside of people on this forum, hardly anyone in the general pubic even knows what a Lucid Air is. They all know Tesla, BMW, Audi, etc though.

agreed. Also a Model S refresh owner looking@ an Air.

 

[NoseyReporter]

I also think it's worth really looking at competing model's sales numbers. Then understanding if lucid customer base will be a conversion or a completely net new to the segment.

Mercedes-Benz S-Class Sales Figures

Automotive Sales Data and Statistics

carsalesbase.com

BMW 7-Series Sales Figures

Automotive Sales Data and Statistics

carsalesbase.com

Tesla Model S Sales Figures

Automotive Sales Data and Statistics

carsalesbase.com

Take these numbers with a grain of salt. This was a cursory search and I don't really know this source. This is also US only. However if it's true, 10-14k seems inline for the segment the Air competes in. If not even surprisingly strong for a full second year from a new company.

 

[HariK]

I also think it's worth really looking at competing model's sales numbers. Then understanding if lucid customer base will be a conversion or a completely net new to the segment.

Mercedes-Benz S-Class Sales Figures

Automotive Sales Data and Statistics

carsalesbase.com

BMW 7-Series Sales Figures

Automotive Sales Data and Statistics

carsalesbase.com

Tesla Model S Sales Figures

Automotive Sales Data and Statistics

carsalesbase.com

Take these numbers with a grain of salt. This was a cursory search and I don't really know this source. This is also US only. However if it's true, 10-14k seems inline for the segment the Air competes in. If not even surprisingly strong for a full second year from a new company.

Yes. Given the size of this segment it is remarkable for a new company like Lucid to take nearly 20% of the market share roughly. Future growth comes from new segments like Gravity or other models. 23 sales for Lucid will be mostly from taking away the market share from either the ICE equivalents like Lexus LS, BMW 7 or Saphire takes market share from Tesla Plaid for those who really want high performance and luxury. As an owner and investor, I am rooting for all the software fixes and updates and shipping to Europe and Saudi Arabia in the near term and a plan to introduce an SUV at the price just below Air Pure at least 350mile range.

 

[HariK]

I think you can be a brand ambassador without being an owner. I telll eveyone I know including my tesla friends about a Lucid. I have rented cars, test drive several but yet to buy one.

Yeah! Right. Just as I can be a brand Ambassador with a minivan I rented once and drove in Hawaii and so I am an expert critic on R1S for example. Please do us a favor and leave the forum before you get banned for good.

 

[Shuasha]

No, you really can’t. You can be an investor and believe in the company, but you can’t be a “brand ambassador” I really can’t imagine you talking about Lucid to your Tesla “friends” as much as you talk about your Tesla to us in here. Either put your money where your mouth is and buy a Lucid, or don’t. Your choice if you really want to be a Brand Ambassador.

And are we REALLY discussing in here Peters speech pattern?! Come on guys, we are better than that.

It's not the speech pattern as much as not having a clear, concise answer to what they should expect as the main question from analysts. It did not inspire confidence.

 

[AirDoll]

It's not the speech pattern as much as not having a clear, concise answer to what they should expect as the main question from analysts. It did not inspire confidence.

I was more referring to the comment Blueice made about him and ending his sentence about it with LOL. That comment has since been removed, appropriately so.