Q4 2022 Earnings Preview Article

[AZLucidGuy]

Lucid's Results Are Today. Watch for This Number.

The electric-vehicle startup is only ramping up production and sales, so profits, or losses, don't shed much light on its performance.

www.barrons.com

"Wall Street expects roughly 20,000 to 22,000 deliveries in 2023. A forecast anywhere in that range should be enough to satisfy investors."
“Over the last thirty days we saw 37.9 million shares of short covering, worth $675 million, a 23.6% decrease in total shares shorted,”

Thoughts from fellow Air owners and/or $LCID owners?

 

[joec]

I have a hard time believing they will deliver 20k this year. Just given the past issues, I would think they'd want to guide on the low side this time around. But if they do say 20k at today's call, I would be confident they think they can do that.

The real question is how many reservations do they have at this point? Probably not a lot more than 20k, right? They had 30k at one point, but they've delivered thousands since then. And for sure there have been some cancelations.

 

[AZLucidGuy]

I have a hard time believing they will deliver 20k this year. Just given the past issues, I would think they'd want to guide on the low side this time around. But if they do say 20k at today's call, I would be confident they think they can do that.

The real question is how many reservations do they have at this point? Probably not a lot more than 20k, right? They had 30k at one point, but they've delivered thousands since then. And for sure there have been some cancelations.

If you are correct and they have lowered guidance for deliveries then "Wall Street" predicts, then expect $LCID to fall a lot in the after hours session today and likely fall tomorrow. I hope that they are able to provide guidance for 20K plus deliveries in 2023...

 

[Shuasha]

Isn't the new factory supposed to be online this year? I thought the outside construction was planned to be finished Q1 of 23, then it would take a while to get production lines started. From the flyover vids I'm not so sure that's going to happen, but most of the new space is covered so you can't see how far they've come on interior work either.

 

[Drendino]

I have a hard time believing they will deliver 20k this year. Just given the past issues, I would think they'd want to guide on the low side this time around. But if they do say 20k at today's call, I would be confident they think they can do that.

The real question is how many reservations do they have at this point? Probably not a lot more than 20k, right? They had 30k at one point, but they've delivered thousands since then. And for sure there have been some cancelations.

Hopefully that lot full of cars is heading to Saudi Arabia. If they start filling the 100k future commitment orders, they just may be able to pull it off.

 

[Shuasha]

Hopefully that lot full of cars is heading to Saudi Arabia. If they start filling the 100k future commitment orders, they just may be able to pull it off.

That lot of cars isn't static.. cars are moved in and out all the time. I think it was last week, Bear's workshop did a flyover and zoomed in on a bunch to see which ones were dusty and clean. He said a car will get covered with dust in 2-3 days in AZ, and there were a bunch of cars with clean roofs mixed in with the dusty ones.

Not saying the 2000 cars sitting there isn't a problem, but it's not like they're just sitting.

 

[BACamster]

• 3,493 vehicles produced in Q4, up 53 percent sequentially
• 7,180 vehicles produced in 2022, exceeding annual production guidance of 6,000 to 7,000 vehicles
• Q4 revenue of over $257M and annual revenue of over $608M
• Ended the quarter with approximately $4.9B total liquidity
• 2023 production guidance of 10,000 to 14,000 vehicles

Lucid Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Financial Results, Exceeds Annual Production Guidance With 3,493 Vehicles in Q4 and 7,180 in the Full Year 2022

Lucid Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: LCID), setting new standards with the longest-range, fastest-charging electric car on the market, today announced financial results for its fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2022. The Company produced 3,493 vehicles during Q4 at its manufacturing facility...

finance.yahoo.com

 

[Babyrocko1908]

https://ir.lucidmotors.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lucid-announces-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2022-financial/

 

[Shuasha]

Soooo, I guess they're not planning on having the new factory up and running this year? The high end of the production estimate is just 4x the Q4 number.

 

[tmilone103]

And down it goes... Wall Street looking for 20k-22k vehicles in 2023 and Lucid Projecting 10-14k.

 

[Sid432]

I see 28k reservations as of yesterday. And no update about Gravity ?

 

[Drendino]

Hopefully that lot full of cars is heading to Saudi Arabia. If they start filling the 100k future commitment orders, they just may be able to pull it off.
Welp, this post didn’t age well.

 

[Babyrocko1908]

I see 28k reservations as of yesterday. And no update about Gravity ?

Let's wait for the call. There may still be some good news coming.

 

[chachacha]

How confident are you all in Lucid's future? I have a pending air touring reservation but now worried about buying a car that might go out of business in a few years..

 

[Shuasha]

How confident are you all in Lucid's future? I have a pending air touring reservation but now worried about buying a car that might go out of business in a few years..

Fully confident, worst case the Saudi PIF buys the rest of the company and takes it private, then IPO again later.

 

[idiot900]

They have a lot of Saudi investment, and this appears to be a combination of diversification out of petroleum and a prestige project for them. In either case, looks to be a long term play. In addition, Saudi Arabia has a backstop order for 50k cars + the option for 50k more over 10 years. Saudi Arabia also has taken a significant stake in Aston Martin, so it would only make sense for Lucid to provide the EV platform for them too. Though that of course is speculation.

 

[NewEnglander]

Lucid will stay in business as stated above by @Shuasha. Lucid's issue is somewhat different. Competition is coming up with cars that are good quality and at lower cost. Look at announcements from Genesis and price reduction from tesla- Those provide viable alternatives. If Tesla had not dropped Model S price by 10K, lot more people would have bought Touring right now. The price drops are affecting resales of existing cars and not giving lucid the tailwind it needs. Plus losing $7500 federal rebate was a bad blow. Lucid needs to improve quality and fast. If it can, it will be a luxury vehicle like Mercedes but with slightly better range and features. Plus it will always have a side business where it can sell its battery tech and Powertrain to others. Ultimately, it is likely that someone may want to buy them.

 

[Babyrocko1908]

How confident are you all in Lucid's future? I have a pending air touring reservation but now worried about buying a car that might go out of business in a few years..

The company has been delivering cars for just ONE YEAR!!!! I have zero concerns. I have my car which I'm absolutely head over heels in love with and I increased my shares this week. I haven't heard anything overly concerning. However, please do what you're comfortable with but I'm all in.

 

[DBV]

In my opinion, the earning results were not good and the forecast for this year was certainly not promising. Seeking Alpha had a good report describing what other investors and maybe potential owners are thinking. It does make me question a potential purchase.

I really hope Lucid can get it going, but it will be really tough with this priced car in this marketplace right now. Would be a different story if they had a Model 3/Y priced EV.

Lucid: Q4 Report Not Good (NASDAQ:LCID)

Lucid's earnings fell short of street estimates, and 2023 vehicle production guidance was not that impressive. Read why LCID may struggle in the coming year.

seekingalpha.com

 

[Babyrocko1908]

In my opinion, the earning results were not good and the forecast for this year was certainly not promising. Seeking Alpha had a good report describing what other investors and maybe potential owners are thinking. It does make me question a potential purchase.

I really hope Lucid can get it going, but it will be really tough with this priced car in this marketplace right now. Would be a different story if they had a Model 3/Y priced EV.

Lucid: Q4 Report Not Good (NASDAQ:LCID)

Lucid's earnings fell short of street estimates, and 2023 vehicle production guidance was not that impressive. Read why LCID may struggle in the coming year.

seekingalpha.com

What would have been good in your opinion? What would have been good numbers? Peter described continuing supply chain issues. So what do you think they could have done better in this climate?

I'm not saying the numbers were good, but they weren't awful either. Gravity reveal is still on track for this year, and shipments to Europe and the Kingdom are on track for Q2.