Production ramp

[Dortreo]

The above represents the production ramp up estimates for the Tesla Model 3 in 2017. Elon vs. realist vs. bearish. And what happened? Nothing even close. Per Wikipedia....

Quarter: Model 3 vehicles produced
2017 Q3: 260(222 delivered)
2017 Q4: 2,425(1,542 delivered)
2018 Q1: 9,766(8,182 delivered)
2018 Q2: 28,578(18,449 delivered)
2018 Q3: 53,239(56,065 delivered)
2018 Q4: 61,394(63,359 delivered)
2019 Q1: 62,975(50,928 delivered)
2019 Q2: 72,531(77,634 delivered)
2019 Q3: 79,837(79,703 delivered)
2019 Q4: 86,958(92,620 delivered)

My takeaway from this: Over the next few weeks/months, lots of patience will be required. The ramp-up is slow but once it gets going, it will definitely get going And I'm sure the cars rolling off the line will have bumpers that remain attached, even in rain. I hope that Lucid continues to take a quality over quantity stance, as quality is an integral part of the brand (in the same way that being a beta tester is part of Tesla's). So, I'm guessing the ramp we will see will be even slower because Lucid can't afford to put out a shoddy product. And I'm okay with that.

 

[Sandvinsd]

The Lucid Ramp up will be slower than the bearish Tesla numbers you provided, and I am ok with that as I want quality over quanity. Lucid projects only 20k for 2022. That means an average of 5k per quarter. The first quarter will be significantly less. Perhaps a ramp per quarter of 1300, 2600, 5200, 10,900 is more appropriate to get to a 20k number

 

[hmp10]

Today's press, release in which Lucid took a much-deserved bow for Saturday's first delivery, was more interesting in what it didn't say than in what it did. There was no mention of the next steps in delivery, no mention of the pace of ensuing production, and no re-confirmation of the commitment to produce 577 cars by year end.

Production began 5 weeks ago. So far we've seen 12 cars off the assembly line. I'm a September 2018 reservation holder and was one of the first to confirm my order when final order configuration opened up. On Friday I was told my car is not even on the production schedule yet.

It might be more useful to look at what's happening with quality-conscious Rivian's production start than what Tesla did in the very different supplier environment of 2017 at a company which is willing to push flawed cars out the door with misaligned panels, jammed windows, serious pain defects . . . . (My brother got a 2018 Model 3 soon after the dual motor went into production, and his car was delivered with each of these problems, with many similar reports from customers.)

At Rivian, seven weeks after start of production, almost no non-employees are reporting having received their RiT orders.

 

[Dortreo]

Today's press, release in which Lucid took a much-deserved bow for Saturday's first delivery, was more interesting in what it didn't say than in what it did. There was no mention of the next steps in delivery, no mention of the pace of ensuing production, and no re-confirmation of the commitment to produce 577 cars by year end.

Production began 5 weeks ago. So far we've seen 12 cars off the assembly line.

Bear’s Workshop did another flyby on Oct 29 and found no wrapped cars in the parking lot. My guess is that these 12 Lucid cars on Oct 30 were finished by hand and that the kinks in the production line are still being worked out (as evidenced by the fact that no new finished cars have been seen in two consecutive drone fly-by’s). I wouldn’t be surprised if Rivian is in the same situation. But once the line gremlins get found out and addressed, production should ramp up along the proverbial sigmoid curve. And that’s as optimistic as I’ll ever get.

 

[hmp10]

My guess is that these 12 Lucid cars on Oct 30 were finished by hand and that the kinks in the production line are still being worked out (as evidenced by the fact that no new finished cars have been seen in two consecutive drone fly-by’s).

My guess, too. I remain mindful that, even after Rawlinson announced production had begun on September 28, my Delivery Advisor was still insisting production would not start for two to four months. I'm beginning to think Rawlinson was referring to hand production of first deliveries, and the delivery team is referring to line production of the remaining Dreams.

Assuming a 5-day production week and factoring in two holidays, that means producing an average of over 13 cars a day to meet the promise of 577 cars by year end. Even if you reset the goal to 520 cars and factor in the 12 already delivered, that still requires an average production rate of over 12 cars a day.

Somehow, I'm just not feeling either number.

 

[Dortreo]

My guess, too. I remain mindful that, even after Rawlinson announced production had begun on September 28, my Delivery Advisor was still insisting production would not start for two to four months. I'm beginning to think Rawlinson was referring to hand production of first deliveries, and the delivery team is referring to line production of the remaining Dreams.

Assuming a 5-day production week and factoring in two holidays, that means producing an average of over 13 cars a day to meet the promise of 577 cars by year end. Even if you reset the goal to 520 cars and factor in the 12 already delivered, that still requires an average production rate of over 12 cars a day.

Somehow, I'm just not feeling either number.

Well, playing the role of the optimist again (which doesn't come naturally): They have a line that should be capable of producing at least 54 cars a day (20K production target in 2022 divided by 365 days provided they work each and every day). So, the line has a capacity of at least 55 cars a day. Between now and Dec 31, they would need the line to be operating at an average of ~25% capacity to make their target. That seems slightly more achievable? As the bottlenecks get solved, we could see a Tesla Model 3-type ramp-up.

I wonder if the Delivery Advisor is telling you 2 to 4 months because it's standard response or because that's when Zenith Red Dream Editions are slated to be made. I'm surprised that the paint shop can only do one color at a time for now. From their materials, it seems like they invested a lot into it.

Why is the target 577? What an oddly specific number to hold to. What are the other 37 cars? Marketing/Studio cars? Cars for the largest stakeholders?

 

[hmp10]

I wonder if the Delivery Advisor is telling you 2 to 4 months because it's standard response or because that's when Zenith Red Dream Editions are slated to be made.

After Ashoka8350 noticed that there were no Zenith Reds in the production line he saw during Production Preview Week, I called my Delivery Advisor to ask if choosing the red would change my place in queue. She said no.

I'm surprised that the paint shop can only do one color at a time for now.

It surprised me, too, and caused me to do a little internet digging. I found several articles on why car manufacturers try to run colors in as large a batch as order projections will allow due to the time and expense of changing a paint line over to another color.

I suspect this is why large manufacturers offer several basic colors in their standard pricing and then offer more exotic colors at large upcharges. With high enough volume, they can invest in multiple paint lines to run basic colors simultaneously and a special paint line that changes colors more often for the exotic colors.

In an article from the Lucid factory tour it was noted that the current assembly line is on the ground floor of the paint shop and will be moved to AMP-2 as volume expands. This suggests Lucid does not yet have all the paint lines in place they will eventually have, so they might be having to switch over paint lines more often right now.

Why is the target 577? What an oddly specific number to hold to. What are the other 37 cars? Marketing/Studio cars? Cars for the largest stakeholders?

Rawlinson mentioned 577 cars at a time that Dream production was still billed as 500 cars, so the delta was actually 77 cars. I never saw anything that shed light on whether those were 77 more Dream Editions for non-customer use or the first 77 Grand Tourings.

At least three of the cars delivered Saturday were to insiders, and Ashoka8350 thinks those three are tallied against the 520 production number, i. e., within the "customer deliveries".

It's just one of those things Lucid seems decided to leave ambiguous.

 

[SDHacker]

Insideevs has a post stating Rivian is projecting delivering 1,000 vehicles by EOY. So some hope that Lucid will be able to ramp up to meet Rawlinson's 577 by EOY.

 

[Adnillien]

During the Casa Grande event Peter stated that sales and marketing cars would be done before customer cars. It was also stated that production was 4-6 cars per day with no comment on 5 or 7 days per week. Assuming that the first 2-3 weeks after the production preview event were sales and marketing and 12 cars were delivered on Saturday. It appears to me that production is ramping nicely.

I remain optimistic but temper that with the fact that during "safe launch" or "production ramp" a lot of additional inspections and data collection is required to make sure that manufacturing process is in control. Not knowing much about automotive production, I am going to guess that this will go on for at least the first 1000 cars and then start to taper off. I would expect the production number to ramp faster in February of next year.

 

[Sandvinsd]

During the Casa Grande event Peter stated that sales and marketing cars would be done before customer cars. It was also stated that production was 4-6 cars per day with no comment on 5 or 7 days per week. Assuming that the first 2-3 weeks after the production preview event were sales and marketing and 12 cars were delivered on Saturday. It appears to me that production is ramping nicely.

I remain optimistic but temper that with the fact that during "safe launch" or "production ramp" a lot of additional inspections and data collection is required to make sure that manufacturing process is in control. Not knowing much about automotive production, I am going to guess that this will go on for at least the first 1000 cars and then start to taper off. I would expect the production number to ramp faster in February of next year.

Rawlinson stated at the Casa Grande event that the first customer cars were just entering the production line the . I have no idea how long it takes for a car to come out the end of the line after they start. They say that 4-6 cars are coming out per day but I don’t know how many days it took before the customer cars were rolling off. He has also stated that after the Dreams, the first AGTs would be for the studios for test drives, although I have been also told that the pre-production cars made since June were for test drives, and then they have all of the cars in the production line at the Casa Grande event. That is a lot of test drive cars for 28 studio and service locations - many of which won’t be open until well into next year. I‘m waiting for the first customer to report that they were called to finalize an AGT which will give me a better handle on the production ramp.

 

[Sandvinsd]

Apparently 18 more cars ready for delivery today from a quick peak by Bear’s Workshop so looks like the production is going well.

 

[manitou202]

I just locked in my Grand Touring order tonight. No word on delivery, but it's a good sign they are continuing to make progress.

Rich Grey Metallic Paint, Santa Cruz Interior, 21” Aero Blade Wheels, Glass Canopy Roof and AWD Drivetrain

 

[Sandvinsd]

I just locked in my Grand Touring order tonight. No word on delivery, but it's a good sign they are continuing to make progress.

Rich Grey Metallic Paint, Santa Cruz Interior, 21” Aero Blade Wheels, Glass Canopy Roof and AWD Drivetrain

When did you place your reservation? I’m curious how close they are to calling me.

 

[manitou202]

When did you place your reservation? I’m curious how close they are to calling me.

Grand Touring
Reservation: September 9th, 2020
Order Confirmation: November 15th, 2021
Location: Colorado

 

[Sandvinsd]

September 9th, 2020.

Ok. I’m exactly 7 months of reservations behind you, so I’ll see…..

 

[Neurio]

View attachment 194

Apparently 18 more cars ready for delivery today from a quick peak by Bear’s Workshop so looks like the production is going well.

How often does he do flyovers? If it's every few days, I wonder how often they are turning over the cars seen in the lot. I imagine each time is a new batch, so Lucid is producing 1-2 dozen cars at a time?

Doing some rough (and highly speculative) math, let's say they're producing a dozen per day. That would be 60 per work week. Assuming they've already delivered 40 Dreams (a rough guess based on the initial dozen and "over 2 dozen" this past weekend), they would need 8 weeks to complete the 520 Dreams, assuming they're not working weekends.

Knowing that Lucid has promised that all the Dreams will be delivered this year, that makes me think they're actually producing at a higher rate. Hopefully that means that every flyover is just that day's 20ish cars. That would mean they'd be done with the Dreams in the next 4-5 weeks, which seems doable.

Then on to the GTs!

 

[Neurio]

3 pictures from the Q3 earnings release document. The first pic is clearly completed Dreams at the end of the assembly line. The 2nd and 3rd pics have the 21" Aero Blade wheels, so could these be GTs on the production line already? Or are these old pics from the preproduction stage? So many questions...

 

[Sandvinsd]

How often does he do flyovers? If it's every few days, I wonder how often they are turning over the cars seen in the lot. I imagine each time is a new batch, so Lucid is producing 1-2 dozen cars at a time?

Doing some rough (and highly speculative) math, let's say they're producing a dozen per day. That would be 60 per work week. Assuming they've already delivered 40 Dreams (a rough guess based on the initial dozen and "over 2 dozen" this past weekend), they would need 8 weeks to complete the 520 Dreams, assuming they're not working weekends.

Knowing that Lucid has promised that all the Dreams will be delivered this year, that makes me think they're actually producing at a higher rate. Hopefully that means that every flyover is just that day's 20ish cars. That would mean they'd be done with the Dreams in the next 4-5 weeks, which seems doable.

Then on to the GTs!

Bear’s Workshop flew over on Friday and saw 22 Cars, Now 18 today. But they had not seen any before then. lucid has delivered 36 in 21 days. At that rate they won’t get to their goal by the end of the year. If there were 18 cars today, I will assume they were produced within the last 3 days As I assume none would have been picked up over the weekend. At 6 per day, that is at their reported production rate back in September. Producing 6 per day nets another 282 cars by the end of the year (plus those already made). Again, not where they need to be. With 47 days left in the year (including holidays and weekends), they really need to be ramping to over 10 per day. Now if they are producing 18 per weekday then they are definitely well on pace as that would be 192 per week. Between plant photos of cars and delivery numbers, we should continue to get a better idea of the production rate.

 

[WildRide47]

Ok. I’m exactly 7 months of reservations behind you, so I’ll see…..

I'm 10 and 1/2 months behind Manitou.

It would be helpful when someone is called to confirm their order that they state their original deposit date, so that future Lucid owners will have some idea when their car will arrive, as that lack of information from corporate leaves a lot of people in limbo.

 

[manitou202]

I'm 10 and 1/2 months behind Manitou.

It would be helpful when someone is called to confirm their order that they state their original deposit date, so that future Lucid owners will have some idea when their car will arrive, as that lack of information from corporate leaves a lot of people in limbo.

I just updated my post to include reservation date, confirmation date, and location.