Production ramp

[hmp10]

3 pictures from the Q3 earnings release document. The first pic is clearly completed Dreams at the end of the assembly line. The 2nd and 3rd pics have the 21" Aero Blade wheels, so could these be GTs on the production line already? Or are these old pics from the preproduction stage?

If I'm not mistaken, that white car with the Tahoe interior in the third picture has the deep rear footwell and thus the smaller battery pack not available on the early Grand Tourings for customers. (I'm told the smaller battery pack will become a later option.) If so, that is an old picture of a car being built as a Design Studio display car, as some of those cars have the smaller battery pack.

 

[WildRide47]

Much appreciated.

 

[Sandvinsd]

There was a post on the other forum that they were called today to confirm their January 2021 AGT reservation. That is 4 months of reservation movement in 24h

 

[manitou202]

I was told by my Delivery advisor today, 2-4 months for delivery of my Grand Touring.

 

[Sandvinsd]

Today Bear’s Workshop sees 31 completed cars at Lucid’s AMP-1. They are ramping up!

 

[Lucken]

Are those 31 cars not seen before or the previous 18 plus 13 new ones? Does he track that kind of thing or just totals what he sees? He'd have to see the prior ones being shipped away to know these are all new.

 

[Sandvinsd]

Are those 31 cars not seen before or the previous 18 plus 13 new ones? Does he track that kind of thing or just totals what he sees? He'd have to see the prior ones being shipped away to know these are all new.

Well, there are more cars than there were two days ago. In fact different numbers every day 22 on 11/12, 18 on 11/15 and 31 today. They are all in different places. ….and there is actually a truck there today where they would be loading cars into.

 

[WildRide47]

Well, there are more cars than there were two days ago. In fact different numbers every day 22 on 11/12, 18 on 11/15 and 31 today. They are all in different places. ….and there is actually a truck there today where they would be loading cars into.

Looks like mostly white ones.

 

[Dortreo]

I believe Lucid Airs only come in white. There’s no evidence of Zenith Red so far.

 

[Lucken]

View attachment 205
View attachment 206
I believe Lucid Airs only come in white. There’s no evidence of Zenith Red so far.

I’m concerned about those very tiny windows, visibility looks terrible.

 

[Ovfitbob]

I just put down a reservation for the touring model. Hopefully it’ll arrive before the end of next year.

 

[Dortreo]

I posted this on the other forum but thought it might be of interest to people who ordered GTs and want to be nerdy about car production.

Based upon what Lucid has released about reservations and potential sales, you can make some very rough guesses about product mix. For Air Grand Tourings, you can guess that they made up only a minor part of the product mix, probably no more than 5% in February 2021. From Mar 2021 to Jun 2021, they were maybe about a third (but could be anywhere from 0% to 40%). And from Jul 2021 to Sep 2021, they probably make up 90% of reservations. These are just estimates based upon average potential sale per reservation: February 2021: $87K, Mar to June 2021: $100K. Jul 2021 to Sep 2021: $133K.

If you ordered a Grand Touring before the huge influx of orders starting in July, congratulations, you'll probably receive your car in late Q1 to early Q2 2022 based upon an estimated monthly production of 500 to 600 cars through end of Q1 2022. This is based on an assumption of 400 or so cars that will be produced in December to make their 577 car target.

If you're like me and reserved your Grand Touring in October after the huge bolus of Grand Touring orders, you're SOL and probably looking at mid Q3 depending upon ramp-up. Lucid will need to go from 500 to 2500 or so cars per month by December to make their production targets of 20,000 cars next year, so I assume that they’ll be at the halfway point of 1500 cars per month by June. (I’m also assuming a logistic sigmoid function for monthly production capacity because I’m a geek.) Maximum production capacity of AMP-1 is 2700 cars per month before planned expansion.

I'd also guess that the majority of GT orders will be done by mid-Q3 and Touring and Pure models would start in that time frame. Monthly production numbers should be high enough by then that these models should be churned out fairly quickly to meet all reservations through Nov 2021. (Based upon 17K reservations as of Nov 2021 and 20K production goal for 2022.)

Add 3 months to all estimates if you ordered Zenith Red.

 

[Ovfitbob]

I hope with the increase in production and the desire to get these cars into the hands of owners as soon as possible, there won’t be any quality/ fit & finish issues along the assembly line.

 

[rosebud_g]

i got this on tuesday along with a VIN # for a dream P...when quizzed i could not get a delivery date estimate only that they THINK i should get it before i go on vacation on 12/18...anyone have any ideas?
We are making significant progress on our Dream Edition deliveries. I was just notified that your vehicle has entered production and I anticipate that your delivery is only weeks away. This means that we will need to work diligently to ensure your vehicle is delivered as soon as possible.

 

[Dortreo]

i got this on tuesday along with a VIN # for a dream P...when quizzed i could not get a delivery date estimate only that they THINK i should get it before i go on vacation on 12/18...anyone have any ideas?
We are making significant progress on our Dream Edition deliveries. I was just notified that your vehicle has entered production and I anticipate that your delivery is only weeks away. This means that we will need to work diligently to ensure your vehicle is delivered as soon as possible.

Congratulations! I might direct your question to @hmp10, whose financial advisor got a VIN number and then a Dream P in short order. Could I ask what color you ordered and what part of the country you live in?

 

[rosebud_g]

eureka gold/south florida...curious about production time...do you think they are doing all dreams by hand?

 

[Kzooguy]

i got this on tuesday along with a VIN # for a dream P...when quizzed i could not get a delivery date estimate only that they THINK i should get it before i go on vacation on 12/18...anyone have any ideas?
We are making significant progress on our Dream Edition deliveries. I was just notified that your vehicle has entered production and I anticipate that your delivery is only weeks away. This means that we will need to work diligently to ensure your vehicle is delivered as soon as possible.

I would think that "weeks away" is not more than 2 weeks, 3 weeks tops with the upcoming holidays. I would have to think delivery would be easily before the travel dates you indicate. When did you originally reserve your car and what is the configuration please? Thanks.

 

[rosebud_g]

original deposit date 9/11/20
confirmed date 09/20/2021
dream P

 

[hmp10]

i got this on tuesday along with a VIN # for a dream P...when quizzed i could not get a delivery date estimate only that they THINK i should get it before i go on vacation on 12/18...anyone have any ideas?

My financial advisor is taking delivery of his car at his vacation home in Orlando, FL tomorrow. He got a call from his Delivery Advisor on November 2 telling him his car was in production but did not yet have a VIN assigned. Later that week, on either Thursday or Friday, he was sent the VIN. Then a few days later he was told his car would be delivered on Saturday, November 13 -- just 11 days after he got notice his car had entered production. In fact, the delivery followed so quickly that he was unable to get down to Orlando in time and had to ask for a one-week delay in delivery.

My Delivery Advisor told me that once the VIN gets issued things tend to happen quickly. She had already asked me earlier in the week to send her photos of the front and back of my driver's license. Have you gotten such a request?

 

[rosebud_g]

My financial advisor is taking delivery of his car at his vacation home in Orlando, FL tomorrow. He got a call from his Delivery Advisor on November 2 telling him his car was in production but did not yet have a VIN assigned. Later that week, on either Thursday or Friday, he was sent the VIN. Then a few days later he was told his car would be delivered on Saturday, November 13 -- just 11 days after he got notice his car had entered production. In fact, the delivery followed so quickly that he was unable to get down to Orlando in time and had to ask for a one-week delay in delivery.

My Delivery Advisor told me that once the VIN gets issued things tend to happen quickly. She had already asked me earlier in the week to send her photos of the front and back of my driver's license. Have you gotten such a request?

My financial advisor is taking delivery of his car at his vacation home in Orlando, FL tomorrow. He got a call from his Delivery Advisor on November 2 telling him his car was in production but did not yet have a VIN assigned. Later that week, on either Thursday or Friday, he was sent the VIN. Then a few days later he was told his car would be delivered on Saturday, November 13 -- just 11 days after he got notice his car had entered production. In fact, the delivery followed so quickly that he was unable to get down to Orlando in time and had to ask for a one-week delay in delivery.

My Delivery Advisor told me that once the VIN gets issued things tend to happen quickly. She had already asked me earlier in the week to send her photos of the front and back of my driver's license. Have you gotten such a request?

yes i was asked for license, insurance etc