Following up on the analysis of Lucid's 2023 results, here's my take on Q1 2024 for both Lucid & Rivian:
Q1 2024 Results analysis
Comments?
Q1 2024 Results analysis
Comments?
Speculation Lucid's Q1 2024 Results Analysis
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Where do you live that you've only seen one Lucid on the road?
Knucklehead
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Did either company report the contribution margin for each vehicle produced? I might be using the wrong technical term, but I mean the Revenue received for each vehicle less the actual cost to produce it, not including depreciation and capital expenses.
I think the contribution margin for each vehicle produced by Rivian improved significantly after the production retooling and Gen 2 production start. But I haven't seen anyone confirm that. I would be interested to know the same statistic for Lucid. If each car is producing a positive contribution margin, there is hope they can survive as a manufacturer. If they can't even do that, I don't see how they survive. They have to get there as soon as possible.
Well, glass is half full or half empty, right? Compared to last year, net revenues up, net loss down, sales number increased. The "net loss per car" (hate that number) dropped by a third despite the imminent rollout of a new SUV. PIF unlikely to abandon Lucid anytime in the near future so no "Fiskering" at least for the next couple years. Sorry, you had a bad experience in your local Lucid Studio but I don't think you can generalize that across the nation.
Batteryman
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When the article doubted PIF commitment to Lucid, I realized it’s a hogwash article. PIF will never abandon Lucid. They built the first car manufacturing factory in the Middle East! Also, the article doubted Gravity sales- what planet was the author from. Fancy presentation but a lot of nonsense inside.
Lucid is a long term 10 year investment.
One thing is pretty clear: the battle ground in the coming 18mo will be SUVs. Gravity vs R1S/R2/R3.
It is also pretty clear that Rivian is going all out to contain Lucid's Gravity penetration into SUV segment.
Gravity will appeal to come, if it delivers on schedule and the quality. Lucid can't afford a similar episode of UX1 as in the Air.
If you assume the targeted "SUV" markets between Lucid and Rivian are the same, Rivian has the advantages in solid stable technology and established manufacturing capacity. My feeling is, the two markets (R-series and Gravity) overlap some, but they are not the same. I don't want to get into a moniker debate about whether Gravity is a mini van vs SUV. For serious SUV buyers (offload, towing, etc.), Rivian has the edge. For urban soccer mom applications, Lucid might have more appeal.
Batteryman
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R2 won’t come in volume until mid-late 2026, Gravity is ahead by at least a year. Lucid midsize is coming 2026 to compete with R2, and will probably be 6 months behind the R2.
The fact that Rivian didn’t put that much effort into design of R2 is a bummer, a mini-me R1 doesn’t really appeal to me. Gravity will appeal to BMW x7,Merc GLS, AudiQ7 customers. 95% don’t go off road. A lot who do prefer trucks than SUV.
But I would definitely take a R2 over any Tesla.
Agree, software needs to be perfect in the Gravity!
enzro
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Good read. I have listened to Lucid earnings calls over the last couple of years. Additionally, I am a shareholder and own a 2022 Gran Touring. I love my car. I live in central Florida and do see Lucids. I think i have seen less between 6 and 10. My bottom line, Lucid has the best drivetrain technology on the road, but needs improved ADS and marketing. Folks in my circle who can afford these cars have not heard about Lucid. Demand is a problem. Demand will not improve without better outreach.
Finding an appropriate price is essential, but even more essential is market awareness. Lucid needs to lean on its better quality and better technology. Lucid is still here because of the PIF. Market awareness is 90%. Lucid will need a sustained marketing push to get Gravity sales started on the correct footing; otherwise, the company will remain a small niche player.
I am optimistic. I have put my money where my mouth is, and I will hold onto my share position. I've even bought shares in my children's trusts.
Finding an appropriate price is essential, but even more essential is market awareness. Lucid needs to lean on its better quality and better technology. Lucid is still here because of the PIF. Market awareness is 90%. Lucid will need a sustained marketing push to get Gravity sales started on the correct footing; otherwise, the company will remain a small niche player.
I am optimistic. I have put my money where my mouth is, and I will hold onto my share position. I've even bought shares in my children's trusts.
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This thread should be marked ‘Speculation’.
When judging Rivian's effort and schedule, let me share some of my experience, which is by no means extensive, but a snippet based on my personal experience:
>Rivian vehicle silhouette will not change in the near-term. It is a feature, a brand, not a bug. It postures itself as a Range Rover but EV and reliable.
>underneath this silhouette, Rivian has been making a lot of changes to enhance the functionality, economy, and cost. On the R1S, they have replaced the Quad drive (Bosch) with a Rivian dual drive. They added the Conserve mode to extend the range. They reduced the number of color/upholstery offerings,. Therea re many other changes aimed at streamlining manufacturing and costs. Rivian's focus has been on reducing costs on manufacturing, increasing efficiencies, and reliability. And Rivian already has an industry-leading UX.
>the R2 might looks like a mini-me. But I'd have a lot more confidence for Rivian ramping up production quickly on the R2 than Lucid on the Gravity.
> if you look at the volume of R2 images and sighting on the web in the past month, it is hard for me to believe the R2 will trail the Gravity in volume by any significant amount. And the R2 will be cheaper. I've seen more of the R2 than the Gravity.
translux
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The Lucid Studio article nails my experience at their Oakbrook Illinois location-“masterclass in ambivalence.”
Countless unreturned or returned with no answer to questions phone calls, emails and txt was incredible.
My colleague who I convinced to buy an Air had a near identical experience with a different sales person at the same location so not an isolated issue.
Without our persistence nothing would have happened.
Countless unreturned or returned with no answer to questions phone calls, emails and txt was incredible.
My colleague who I convinced to buy an Air had a near identical experience with a different sales person at the same location so not an isolated issue.
Without our persistence nothing would have happened.
Honestly, I think that's why Lucid has such a good referral program. Happy owners that tell their friends are probably one of their best sources. Does MBZ or BMW have referral plans like this? I don't know, just asking.
translux
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An add to my post- neither of us have received any follow up communication from our sales person. Additionally trying to get my referral code credited has gone nowhere after multiple attempts with promises to resolve.
Must fix the front line business prevention department asap.
Must fix the front line business prevention department asap.
Why do you believe the R2 is not a year behind production of the Gravity? Don't the existing Lucid plants in Casa Grade and Saudi Arabia have capacity to ramp up to 150,000 units, while Rivian is still in the process of building more plants? I'm just curious about your sources.
I don't have a secret source.
I judge companies by their track record and sanity check their forward-looking rhetoric against their past performance. If they perform technically and on their business goals solidly, I tend to trust their forecast. If they don't, I discount their forecast accordingly.
Rivian throttled back on their Georgia mfg, acknowledging its over-reach. Thereafter they affirmed their 2024 full year forecast. That, together with the VW investment, is giving Rivian credibility. I don't have the statistics. But many of the recent Lucid owners seem to come on board based on fire-sale lease deals. Lucid Air's residual value have dropped precipitously. I see a potential bubble ahead of us (speculation).
For all my selfish reasons owning ny AGT outright and being a shareholder, I want Lucid to succeed. In contrast, Rivian's vehicle pricing seems more steady and could achieve high volume manufacturing with profit. I also own my Rivian and I am a Rivian share holder as well. As such, I have vested interest in the success of both companies.
That said, hope and hype are not business metrics that should be used on forecasts.
BTW, if you want to monitor ACTUAL Lucid production, just go look at the new car parking lot at Casa Grande.
I live about 45min from that plant. No, I've never spied on Lucid's Casa Grande parking lot. There was a guy who used to regularly post drone pics of Lucid's new car parking lot. You can get a pretty good idea of the actual production rate. I am not sure he is still posting regularly.
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Its empty, I have flown over it recently.
Ummm, is that good or bad?!
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