LCID stock

[quantum]

To be fair, the entire market is down today in terms of EVs.

Posted this little over a month ago.
Got out a week ago at $5.51
With recent news…. Unfortunately I see close to $4 share over next 30 days. I will eagerly jump back in again at that level and continue to flip over the short term. There is money on the table still with the stock on flips. Auto Market is brutal at the moment on all EV’s/ice ( see TSLA stock) We need some good news soon.

I still remain long-term BULL … with LCID

I'm never selling, well, stupid to sell at these levels at/near bottom. Just adding some with every dip. Buy, hold forget 5 -10 years!

 

[thecodingart]

I can kind of see the similarities in design, but speaking strictly from market position and perhaps brand dominance I think of Tesla more. Apple has that weird spot where it's premium but also seemingly everyone has one.

If Sapphire becomes an old school M Division/AMG or something that would be pretty interesting. The craziest engineers doing their thing. But that's also kind of luxury thinking because people are still talking about company viability.

Tesla is more like the IBM of EVs

 

[tmilone103]

I'm never selling, well, stupid to sell at these levels at/near bottom. Just adding some with every dip. Buy, hold forget 5 -10 years!

I have done the same but after being down now over $60k I am wondering if there is a bottom in sight.

 

[Cosmo Cruz]

Using extensive luck (not research) I bought LCID @ $10 and then sold half of it @ ~ $50, thinking it would go down but not this much...but it's "free money" now so not so painful. Not sure if I should take the loss for tax reasons, or buy more at this bargain price.

It's still the best EV. People who say Lucid is doomed don't own the car.

 

[quantum]

Using extensive luck (not research) I bought LCID @ $10 and then sold half of it @ ~ $50, thinking it would go down but not this much...but it's "free money" now so not so painful. Not sure if I should take the loss for tax reasons, or buy more at this bargain price.

It's still the best EV. People who say Lucid is doomed don't own the car.

I thought of taking losses but you never know when this will turn higher. So I'll just sell if I need the money. Otherwise, just holding.

 

[joec]

I thought of taking losses but you never know when this will turn higher. So I'll just sell if I need the money. Otherwise, just holding.

It's at times like these I remind myself I bought Apple stock at $3 several splits ago when everyone was calling them "beleaguered".

Betting reasonable amounts of money against conventional wisdom has done well for me most of my life.

 

[quantum]

Tesla is more like the IBM of EVs

Tesla is done with growth. They can only sell more cars if they drop prices. Which will affect margins. The AI hype is nothing. There will be no usable tesla bot, there will be no robotaxis by not using LIDAR or U/S sensors. Autonomous cars still at least 20 years away. Its valued at 700 billion. Ford 45 billion. Free cash flow for Ford in 2023 is around 6 billion. For Tesla it dropped to 1.4 billion compared to 8.5 billion in 2022. They expanded toooo fast. Overcapacity. - Finally everyone coming to their senses, JUST A CAR COMPANY!

 

[noobzilla]

The most recent sales figure includes that big sale (free DDP and SSP)? I haven't been up to date but the production and sales numbers are really bad. About 2000 cars produced per quarter and 1500 delivered? They have to miraculous double the production number to meet the already-lowered 2023 goal. They're also still filling in pre-orders. Once those are filled, what will the sales number look like for Air?

Gravity wont start production until late 2024. Realistically their estimates always get delayed so lets say early 2025. Even then the demand for that car is uncertain.

At $4.33, it is $9.8B market cap. Earnings report sometime in November and I'm not expecting more positive news than negative ones so could see more drop then. Current stock market trend and news about weakening EV demand won't help either. I could see it dropping up to another 10-20% total and bottoming there then December start picking up. Hopefully 2024 will be more positive with base Pure deliverings and Europe+Saudi ramping up. If not, then price would be low enough for Saudi buyout maybe? Hard to imagine the company completely disappearing.

 

[NoseyReporter]

I don't understand the overproduction. I assume they haven't work through their existing inventory, so why continue to overproduce complete cars only to have them sit on the lot. Especially at the end of the model year.

 

[noobzilla]

I don't understand the overproduction. I assume they haven't work through their existing inventory, so why continue to overproduce complete cars only to have them sit on the lot. Especially at the end of the model year.

Overproduction of higher trim models so they have inventory and wont need to produce them for a while because switching back and forth to produce different trims is not cost effective. Now they can focus on the base Pure. That's what I'm thinking

 

[tmilone103]

I don't understand the overproduction. I assume they haven't work through their existing inventory, so why continue to overproduce complete cars only to have them sit on the lot. Especially at the end of the model year.

I agree with this.. They are still selling 2022's when they should be selling 2024's at this time.

 

[lucidtouringman]

How does it work if the Saudis buy out Lucid? What happens to our shares in that case? Apologies if this is a rookie question...

 

[xponents]

How does it work if the Saudis buy out Lucid? What happens to our shares in that case? Apologies if this is a rookie question...

Firstly, they would have to buy it out for a defined value. For example, when Tesla was "going private" for 420 a share, the value would be 420 x the amount of shares in circulation on the public market. They would be taking it "private at 420 a share."

If the saudi's took Lucid private, then lets assume they do it for 10 dollars and lucid stock is 4 dollars. This means they "buy it out for 10 a share." They would pay you 10 dollars for your share, netting you a 6 dollar profit. The value of Lucid that they buy it out at will be 10x the amount of shares in circulation. Yes, the value can be more than the ACTUAL value of the company. Another example is elon buying twitter for 54.20 a share, even though its value was less than that(he bought it for 44 billion, largely regarded as a terrible move).

And yes, you can refuse. Usually, it is just negotiating the price that you would like to be bought out at.

(way oversimplified and quite frankly i think some things might be wrong, any other users?)

 

[Cosmo Cruz]

investor tip: "When there is blood in the streets, buy property"

There is a gas pipeline in my backyard. Yearly we get a flier that basically says:

"Hey, if you hear a deafening noise and see 100 foot flames out your kitchen window, call us."

I investigated the company and saw they were a partnership that consistently paid over 9% dividends, so I bought a block just to keep an eye on them. Of course, the stock immediately tanked, so I bought more, thinking I was cost averaging. It kept dropping, for years, and I kept buying. One day it was at $3/ share (I think my initial purchase was in the $40 range). I used the remaining cash I earmarked for investing, and bought a whole lot...rationalizing at least I was getting a nice dividend. I also reasoned that:
1. people are not going to stop using gas, in fact, demand was increasing steadily.
2. pipelines are the safest way to move gas around.
3. the price was absurd.

That company is Energy Transfer (ET). It paid for my Lucid GT. Does anyone beside me love the irony?

 

[noobzilla]

Firstly, they would have to buy it out for a defined value. For example, when Tesla was "going private" for 420 a share, the value would be 420 x the amount of shares in circulation on the public market. They would be taking it "private at 420 a share."

If the saudi's took Lucid private, then lets assume they do it for 10 dollars and lucid stock is 4 dollars. This means they "buy it out for 10 a share." They would pay you 10 dollars for your share, netting you a 6 dollar profit. The value of Lucid that they buy it out at will be 10x the amount of shares in circulation. Yes, the value can be more than the ACTUAL value of the company. Another example is elon buying twitter for 54.20 a share, even though its value was less than that(he bought it for 44 billion, largely regarded as a terrible move).

And yes, you can refuse. Usually, it is just negotiating the price that you would like to be bought out at.

(way oversimplified and quite frankly i think some things might be wrong, any other users?)

That mostly sums it up.

There will be shareholder voting whether to approve or deny. Need supermajority and there's other rules and regulations too

 

[noobzilla]

How does it work if the Saudis buy out Lucid? What happens to our shares in that case? Apologies if this is a rookie question...

Tldr since we're just tiny players.. you're forced to sell it at the agreed price.

Once it is private they are no longer obligated to tell us anything such as revenues, production and delivery numbers, etc

 

[Cosmo Cruz]

Guys, say Lucid goes the way of the Tucker 48.

I'd still rather have a Tucker. I have no doubt that there will always be people who love and support Lucid, no matter what.

It's that good.

 

[xponents]

Tldr since we're just tiny players.. you're forced to sell it at the agreed price.

Once it is private they are no longer obligated to tell us anything such as revenues, production and delivery numbers, etc

I mean, you arent FORMALLY "forced" to, but even if it was a "regular" company buying it out you would be... the saudis would almost surely force you. You do have options though, just not much of a chance to use them.

 

[NoseyReporter]

Overproduction of higher trim models so they have inventory and wont need to produce them for a while because switching back and forth to produce different trims is not cost effective. Now they can focus on the base Pure. That's what I'm thinking

Maybe, but I don't think this is the case. I can't imagine there is much of a different in BOM between the Air trims. Realistically the platform is the same. Maybe the biggest different is the interior trim, and the roof.

I thought perhaps it was just practice for the manufacturing floor, practice makes perfect. But still.....how do you clear our 2022 or 2023 model years when you will soon be building 2024 model Airs?

 

[lucidtouringman]

investor tip: "When there is blood in the streets, buy property"

There is a gas pipeline in my backyard. Yearly we get a flier that basically says:

"Hey, if you hear a deafening noise and see 100 foot flames out your kitchen window, call us."

I investigated the company and saw they were a partnership that consistently paid over 9% dividends, so I bought a block just to keep an eye on them. Of course, the stock immediately tanked, so I bought more, thinking I was cost averaging. It kept dropping, for years, and I kept buying. One day it was at $3/ share (I think my initial purchase was in the $40 range). I used the remaining cash I earmarked for investing, and bought a whole lot...rationalizing at least I was getting a nice dividend. I also reasoned that:
1. people are not going to stop using gas, in fact, demand was increasing steadily.
2. pipelines are the safest way to move gas around.
3. the price was absurd.

That company is Energy Transfer (ET). It paid for my Lucid GT. Does anyone beside me love the irony?

Nice! ET is a major client of mine... they are on a buying spree right now and bought Centurion pipeline too .. nicely done and I'm hoping the same happens with Lucid ..I just bought more Lucid earlier today