Gravity Spec coming Oct 3 ?

[AirDoll]

Sorry guys - look at the latest tweet from Nick. It seems there was mis understanding in price reveals on Oct 3. I guess we need to wait further.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1837858838118064198

The article has since been corrected (and I’ve updated my tweet ) It appears both the price announcement and anything in reference to October 3rd in general has been updated.

 

[hmp10]

When you go against the Germans, it's a hard prop. At $120k you are in Cayenne territory and it's hard to argue with that.

Yet the Air outsells both the Porsche Taycan and the Mercedes EQS in the U.S. The German engineering dominance in ICE vehicles has not thus far translated into EV engineering dominance.

The only other EV SUV in the works that matches the Gravity both in range and interior space is the Cadillac Escalade EV that will start at $127,700 and can easily be optioned up to $160,000. And that SUV is significantly slower and will no doubt come nowhere near the Gravity in handling.

Another thing that worries me is the abysmal software QC.

A year ago I would have said the same. However, the continuing software updates to our Air has left us with a car that, between its manual switchgear and its software features, is easier and less aggravating to operate than our Tesla Model S Plaid. And I'm pretty sure the Gravity will go another step beyond.

Gravity is a different thing and won't get away with the tons of issues that Air has.

Two years ago I might have agreed, as our early production Airs had to have some "rebuilding" through numerous service visits. At this point, though, everything about the car is working as intended, it has remained squeak and groan free (unlike our Tesla), and the materials are showing virtually no wear and tear, all indicating that the basics of the car's engineering and materials are rock solid.

I really, REALLY, want this brand to succeed. I will get the Gravity early-mid 2026. But the headwinds are significant, if I were a betting man I would say they won't survive beyond 2026 w/o an M&A. It's just not enough market for this price category, and their "lower" priced cars will come too late.

They clearly will need further funding, but there are no signs that the Saudi PIF is about to lift their foot off the money pedal. They seem to have anchored part of their strategy to move beyond a fossil-fuel economy on Lucid, and they apparently have more patience than the stock market for playing the long game. Much of the Cap Ex involved in becoming a volume producer is now behind them at Lucid. The Gravity will be a significant step into the broader SUV market in the U.S., and that market is populated by a lot of vehicles above $100K. But it is not meant to be Lucid's step into the mass market. That will come after 2026 with its midsize products. And that's when Lucid's future will come into clearer view.

Your bet is that Lucid will fail. My bet is that in ten years Lucid will be recognized as a dominant player in EVs, holding much the same position that MB, BMW, and Porsche have held in ICE vehicles.

 

[marsarbu]

Yet the Air outsells both the Porsche Taycan and the Mercedes EQS in the U.S.

And that's with a range less than half of that of the Air. Also, not adding the EQS numbers.

A year ago I would have said the same. However, the continuing software updates to our Air has left us with a car that, between its manual switchgear and its software features, is easier and less aggravating to operate than our Tesla Model S Plaid. And I'm pretty sure the Gravity will go another step beyond.

I am talking about the quality control of the software, and the UX experience in general. I know it's subjective, but the current UX is missing so many things that my 2017 Ford Fusion plug-in hybrid has, for example. Improvements are great, but it's still behind most cars I can think of. I am convinced that the Gravity will be a step beyond, but so will the competition. So unless they can pull some magic to close the gap, they will perpetually be behind.

Two years ago I might have agreed, as our early production Airs had to have some "rebuilding" through numerous service visits. At this point, though, everything about the car is working an intended, it has remained squeak and groan free (unlike our Tesla), and the materials are showing virtually no wear and tear, all indicating that the basics of the car's engineering and materials are rock solid.

I am glad you have no issues anymore, but mine started 15 min after delivery and I still have at least 3 that bother me more of less. Also, most consumers are not willing to go through numerous service visits to finally, after 2 years, have a car that works - most of the time. That is the difference between an enthusiast and your regular Joe. And unfortunately if you don't have a car that the regular Joe can enjoy, you'll fold.

They clearly will need further funding, but there are no signs that the Saudi PIF is about to lift their foot off the pedal. They seem to have anchored part of their strategy to move beyond a fossil-fuel economy on Lucid, and they apparently have more patience than the stock market for playing the long game.

I sure hope you are right, but there is no way they will keep throwing money out the window, 5B / year or whatever, for more than a couple years. Vanity and large pockets only go so far, at some point they will cut their loses short. Just look at how many years and what volume it took Tesla to become profitable - and they had NO competition. IMHO Lucid has no chance on its own. Same goes for Polestar and Rivian.

As a multiple-small-businesses owner, one thing that I've learned is that everyone can sell tacos at a street light from a tricycle. But taking it from there to a restaurant chain is something that only happens 0.001% of the time.

I would so happy to be wrong

 

[charleyscott]

The Gravity will be a significant step into the broader SUV market in the U.S., and that market is populated by a lot of vehicles above $100K. But it is not meant to be Lucid's step into the mass market. That will come after 2026 with its midsize products. And that's when Lucid's future will come into clearer view.

I'm not sure analysts will be that patient. Recent price forecasts have discussed the importance of increasing volume in 2025. If Gravity is priced in excess of $100k until 2026, increasing volume significantly may be challenging.

 

[hmp10]

View attachment 23473
And that's with a range less than half of that of the Air. Also, not adding the EQS numbers.

View attachment 23474

Yes . . . in 2023. But Taycan sales have taken a nosedive this year, while Air sales have climbed. For the first half of 2024, Porsche sold 2054 Taycans in the U.S., and Lucid sold 4361 Airs (figures from InsideEVS).

I am talking about the quality control of the software, and the UX experience in general. I know it's subjective, but the current UX is missing so many things that my 2017 Ford Fusion plug-in hybrid has, for example. Improvements are great, but it's still behind most cars I can think of. I am convinced that the Gravity will be a step beyond, but so will the competition. So unless they can pull some magic to close the gap, they will perpetually be behind.

In comparing our Lucid Air's software to our 2021 Model S Plaid's software (a brand vaunted for its software superiority), I find the Air's software much better. The Air has a simulated birds-eye view which makes parking much easier, but the Tesla doesn't. The Air will play a USB music stick, but the Tesla won't. The Air has Apple CarPlay, but the Tesla doesn't. Tesla's automatic gear selection seldom gets it right, so we invariably have to use the swipe function which is more cumbersome than the Air's stalk. The Lucid displays two satellite maps, allowing me to keep a zoomed out compass orientation while zooming in simultaneously on close-in turns in direction of travel -- something I never would have missed in the Tesla until the Air offered me the option. The Tesla goes through prolonged bouts of not recognizing the key fob to open the doors and sometimes not to start the car, requiring us to rub our key card over the phone charging pad. You have to look to the center screen to see the blind-spot camera image in the Tesla instead of on the central binnacle as on the Air. I'll take Lucid's control suite, which astutely mixes manual controls with software controls, over Tesla's approach any day of the week.

I am glad you have no issues anymore, but mine started 15 min after delivery and I still have at least 3 that bother me more of less. Also, most consumers are not willing to go through numerous service visits to finally, after 2 years, have a car that works - most of the time. That is the difference between an enthusiast and your regular Joe. And unfortunately if you don't have a car that the regular Joe can enjoy, you'll fold.

My two Airs (the first was wrecked when someone turned across my lane of travel) were very early production cars (Nos. 154 and 395). As a long-time early adopter I expected some issues. I would not tolerate those issues in a car that had been in production for several years, and indications are that most buyers of new Airs these days don't have them.

Even with the problems I initially had with the Airs, they both had fewer problems at delivery than our 2021 Model S (which, interestingly, had more problems than our 2015 Model S, which was actually a pretty well-built car). However, by far the two most problem-ridden cars I ever owned were a C5 Corvette in its introductory year and a 2004 Mercedes SL55 AMG in its introductory year.

I sure hope you are right, but there is no way they will keep throwing money out the window, 5B / year or whatever, for more than a couple years. Vanity and large pockets only go so far, at some point they will cut their loses short. Just look at how many years and what volume it took Tesla to become profitable - and they had NO competition.

The total Saudi investment in Lucid since 2018 is under $7B -- averaging just under $1B a year -- so I don't think $5B a year is in anybody's cards. I have seen nothing about the PIF's behavior that indicates their Lucid stake is a vanity project.

It's true that Tesla had little competition in its early years. But EVs were also a tiny market at that time. The EV market has since exploded -- admittedly due, in no small part, to Tesla -- with Norway now having more EVs than ICE vehicles on the road and other countries, especially in Europe, heading in that direction. Even in the oil-obsessed U.S., BEV sales have gone from 54,179 in 2015 to 1,077,138 in 2023 -- a twenty-fold increase.

 

[msaunders9430]

I've resisted the urge to speculate on pricing.

It’s interesting that for the Air, Lucid was able to provide pricing levels a year before the start of production. Four years later, they are apparently putting more thought into pricing. Perhaps they are hoping to avoid price reductions as was done with the Air.

Here are the pricing levels for the Air when announced in 2020:

• The Air, the starting point for the lineup, available in 2022, from $77,400 ($69,900 after USA federal tax credit)*
• The well-equipped Air Touring model, available late 2021, from $95,000 ($87,500 after USA federal tax credit)*
• The fully equipped Air Grand Touring, available mid 2021, from $139,000 ($131,500 after USA federal tax credit)*
• The all-inclusive, limited-volume Air Dream Edition, available spring 2021, at $169,000 ($161,500 after USA federal tax credit)*

Current Air pricing:
~ $70k for Pure (reduced $7k from original price)
~ $79k for Touring (reduced $16k from original price)
~ $110k for GT (reduced $29k from original price)

Proposed Gravity pricing:
If you take the tax credits out of the equation, would those same prices plus $10k not be reasonable for the Gravity? The one exception would be the GT pricing. The $44k jump from the Touring is a bit much, so perhaps a price of $120k for the GT.
$79k for Pure
$89k - $95k for Touring
$120k for GT

 

[hmp10]

I'm not sure analysts will be that patient. Recent price forecasts have discussed the importance of increasing volume in 2025. If Gravity is priced in excess of $100k until 2026, increasing volume significantly may be challenging.

It depends on how sophisticated the analysis is, and my years in the financial industry have taught me that much of it isn't.

If you look at the top-25-selling SUVs in the U.S., you have to get to numbers 6 and 7 (Jeep Grand Cherokee and Ford Explorer) before you find the first full-size SUVs. After them, the next 11 are again CUVs (compact utility vehicles).

The segment of the SUV market -- full-sized vehicles -- where Lucid will land is not as huge as many people assume. And it's populated with plenty of pricey products (Range Rovers, Cayennes, GL's, Q7s, X7s) that don't make Lucid's anticipated pricing look that scary in comparison. That's why Lucid's long-term fate really rests on its midsize products. And there are no signs that Lucid won't at least get the first of them to market, when the real tale will be told.

 

[hmp10]

Here are the pricing levels for the Air when announced in 2020:

• The fully equipped Air Grand Touring, available mid 2021, from $139,000 ($131,500 after USA federal tax credit)*

Current Air pricing:

~ $110k for GT (reduced $29k from original price)

I agree with your post generally. However, it's worth noting that comparing the original GT pricing to the current GT pricing is not apples-to-apples. That original price was for a fully-loaded car. Many of its included features were moved over to the options list for later buyers who wanted the range of the GT but didn't want to pay for features they might not want or need.

 

[marsarbu]

Yes . . . in 2023. But Taycan sales have taken a nosedive this year, while Air sales have climbed. For the first half of 2024, Porsche sold 2054 Taycans in the U.S., and Lucid sold 4361 Airs (figures from InsideEVS).

The reason Taycan sales went down - according to the journalists and to my experience - is that the refreshed model is coming out, with much better range. Who wants to spend $150k on a 195 miles range EV, when the new one arrives in 6 months, with 300+ mile range? This happens all the time, with all brands, when there's a new model coming out especially one with significant changes. That's why I chose to look at 2023, because there was no market distortion, plus it's a full year.

In comparing our Lucid Air's software to our 2021 Model S Plaid's software (a brand vaunted for its software superiority), I find the Air's software much better. The Air has a simulated birds-eye view which makes parking much easier, but the Tesla doesn't. The Air will play a USB music stick, but the Tesla won't. The Air has Apple CarPlay, but the Tesla doesn't. Tesla's automatic gear selection seldom gets it right, so we invariably have to use the swipe function which is more cumbersome than the Air's stalk. The Lucid displays two satellite maps, allowing me to keep a zoomed out compass orientation while zooming in simultaneously on close-in turns in direction of travel -- something I never would have missed in the Tesla until the Air offered me the option. The Tesla goes through prolonged bouts of not recognizing the key fob to open the doors and sometimes not to start the car, requiring us to rub our key card over the phone charging pad. You have to look to the center screen to see the blind-spot camera image in the Tesla instead of on the central binnacle as on the Air. I'll take Lucid's control suite, which astutely mixes manual controls with software controls, over Tesla's approach any day of the week.

I'm not sure it makes sense to discuss specific Lucid vs others software features. I believe you have good points here, specifically for this comparo, but overall Lucid is clearly behind all my current cars, including the aforementioned 2017 Ford Fusion. That's what your average Gravity-Joe will feel. I'm curious where the Air is in any reliability ranking, I expect at the bottom.

Here's another thing that worries me. I am not a clairvoyant, and probably neither are you The closest thing we have to a crystal ball, would be the stock market. There are a lot of smart & greedy people there trying to guess the future, looking for signals, analyzing things all day long, drawing from past experiences, not to mention AI. And right now, the bets are against Lucid. I think they ran the numbers, probably even the most optimistic of them, and they don't pan out. So unless there's some really creative thinking here - idk, mass licensing their tech, acquisition, merging, etc - they won't probably make it. There is so much high-quality competition & market saturation.

 

[hmp10]

The reason Taycan sales went down - according to the journalists and to my experience - is that the refreshed model is coming out, with much better range. Who wants to spend $150k on a 195 miles range EV, when the new one arrives in 6 months, with 300+ mile range?

That certainly could be a reason. But I also wonder if another factor might have come into play?

As Lucid brand awareness has expanded, and the laudatory reviews have mushroomed, and new showrooms have opened up, I wonder if some potential Taycan customers might have started cross-shopping the brands and found the Lucid's power, handling, and significantly roomier interior a reason to consider an Air. Also, somewhere in this timeline, the Sapphire landed and literally snatched the top-end performance rug out from under every other brand -- something to which Porsche buyers are particularly sensitive.

 

[borski]

That's why I chose to look at 2023, because there was no market distortion, plus it's a full year.

Except that Lucid was also a smaller name then, with less proof, higher pricing, and so on. Every year has caveats.

I believe you have good points here, specifically for this comparo, but overall Lucid is clearly behind all my current cars, including the aforementioned 2017 Ford Fusion. That's what your average Gravity-Joe will feel. I'm curious where the Air is in any reliability ranking, I expect at the bottom.

“You have made great points, but despite them, I’m right” isn’t a very good argument.

I disagree that Lucid is “clearly behind.” For me, it is “clearly ahead” in many aspects, and behind in some. You just happen to care about those it’s behind in.

*Every* car is missing plenty of features. Even your fancy 2017 Ford Fusion. The list of features the Lucid has and your Fusion doesn’t is extremely long. This kind of “my car has X and your car has Y” comparison is pointless. Yes, different cars are different.

And right now, the bets are against Lucid. I think they ran the numbers, probably even the most optimistic of them, and they don't pan out.

Good. I like being right when others are wrong. Much more lucrative that way.

So unless there's some really creative thinking here - idk, mass licensing their tech, acquisition, merging, etc - they won't probably make it. There is so much high-quality competition & market saturation.

I would say the entire company is mired in “creative thinking.” They’ll do just fine, and I’m here for it.

 

[marsarbu]

That certainly could be a reason. But I also wonder if another factor might have come into play?

As Lucid brand awareness has expanded, and the laudatory reviews have mushroomed, and new showrooms have opened up, I wonder if some potential Taycan customers might have started cross-shopping the brands and found the Lucid's power, handling, and significantly roomier interior a reason to consider an Air. Also, somewhere in this timeline, the Sapphire landed and literally snatched the top-end performance rug out from under every other brand -- something to which Porsche buyers are particularly sensitive.

I'm sure there's been some migration, but probably not significant. I have a problem with Porsche and the way the ripoff their customers, even tho I am one

 

[marsarbu]

“You have made great points, but despite them, I’m right” isn’t a very good argument.

Now you're being deliciously judgy I said the points were valid, because it was a very specific comparo. Overall I still believe what I believe. Which doesn't make me right, or wrong, it's just my opinion.

I disagree that Lucid is “clearly behind.” For me, it is “clearly ahead” in many aspects, and behind in some. You just happen to care about those it’s behind in.

Aaaahhh, the beauty of agreeing to disagree. I agree, I care about stupid, insignificant things like being able to open the doors anytime I want, cameras working, soft-close working, having all speakers work, etc. Small stuff.

This kind of “my car has X and your car has Y” comparison is pointless. Yes, different cars are different.

Hence me saying that comparing Lucid Xs with Tesla Ys makes no sense. See, even between a sea of differences, we can find agreement!

 

[msaunders9430]

I agree with your post generally. However, it's worth noting that comparing the original GT pricing to the current GT pricing is not apples-to-apples. That original price was for a fully-loaded car. Many of its included features were moved over to the options list for later buyers who wanted the range of the GT but didn't want to pay for features they might not want or need.

Good point.

 

[joec]

Aaaahhh, the beauty of agreeing to disagree. I agree, I care about stupid, insignificant things like being able to open the doors anytime I want, cameras working, soft-close working, having all speakers work, etc. Small stuff.

You just mentioned four things that have worked flawlessly on my Air since December 2022.

 

[marsarbu]

You just mentioned four things that have worked flawlessly on my Air since December 2022.

You lucky you. That makes it even worse - for me. If I have to deal with a bug, it's much preferred that it's the same in all applications, and it's easily replicated. When you have inconsistencies, now it works, now it doesn't, that's a much harder things to diagnose and fix.

Anecdotal: I took the car into service. I told them about the self-close that doesn't work 90% of the time. I showed them when I dropped of the car. When I picked up the car, the report said for them it worked 100% of the time and couldn't find anything wrong. I was in a rush, I didn't test it in front of them, just received the car and took off. It's still failing, 90% of the time.

 

[joec]

You lucky you. That makes it even worse - for me. If I have to deal with a bug, it's much preferred that it's the same in all applications, and it's easily replicated. When you have inconsistencies, now it works, now it doesn't, that's a much harder things to diagnose and fix.

Anecdotal: I took the car into service. I told them about the self-close that doesn't work 90% of the time. I showed them when I dropped of the car. When I picked up the car, the report said for them it worked 100% of the time and couldn't find anything wrong. I was in a rush, I didn't test it in front of them, just received the car and took off. It's still failing, 90% of the time.

Key word there: Anecdotal.

Believe me, I get the frustration. I've had other issues, and of course tons of issues with other products. But my personal issues with a product do not mean the product is broken for everyone. Sounds like you are having a bad customer service experience. That's different from the car being flawed or broken for most people.

Doesn't make it easier for you, but can you see how coming here and saying these things are problems with the car in general leads to some of us saying "Wait, I don't have that issue. And neither do most of the rest of us, as far as I can tell"?

I really hope CS makes this right for you. Sounds like maybe escalating to someone higher up the food chain might get you the results you deserve. In my experience, once I talk to the right person at Lucid, they tend to want to make things right.

Hope you get this resolved soon.

 

[marsarbu]

Key word there: Anecdotal.

Believe me, I get the frustration. I've had other issues, and of course tons of issues with other products. But my personal issues with a product do not mean the product is broken for everyone. Sounds like you are having a bad customer service experience. That's different from the car being flawed or broken for most people.

Doesn't make it easier for you, but can you see how coming here and saying these things are problems with the car in general leads to some of us saying "Wait, I don't have that issue. And neither do most of the rest of us, as far as I can tell"?

I really hope CS makes this right for you. Sounds like maybe escalating to someone higher up the food chain might get you the results you deserve. In my experience, once I talk to the right person at Lucid, they tend to want to make things right.

Hope you get this resolved soon.

Thanks. I just smiled and moved on, still gave the guy A for trying, still driving the car very much. I'll wait for the latest update to stabilize, then see if I still have the soft-close issue.

 

[bb2e]

When do First Drive reviews of at least very-close-to-production builds tend to come out? Love to see something more than the pretty website.

 

[RockSports]

View attachment 23473
And that's with a range less than half of that of the Air. Also, not adding the EQS numbers.

View attachment 23474



I am talking about the quality control of the software, and the UX experience in general. I know it's subjective, but the current UX is missing so many things that my 2017 Ford Fusion plug-in hybrid has, for example. Improvements are great, but it's still behind most cars I can think of. I am convinced that the Gravity will be a step beyond, but so will the competition. So unless they can pull some magic to close the gap, they will perpetually be behind.



I am glad you have no issues anymore, but mine started 15 min after delivery and I still have at least 3 that bother me more of less. Also, most consumers are not willing to go through numerous service visits to finally, after 2 years, have a car that works - most of the time. That is the difference between an enthusiast and your regular Joe. And unfortunately if you don't have a car that the regular Joe can enjoy, you'll fold.



I sure hope you are right, but there is no way they will keep throwing money out the window, 5B / year or whatever, for more than a couple years. Vanity and large pockets only go so far, at some point they will cut their loses short. Just look at how many years and what volume it took Tesla to become profitable - and they had NO competition. IMHO Lucid has no chance on its own. Same goes for Polestar and Rivian.

As a multiple-small-businesses owner, one thing that I've learned is that everyone can sell tacos at a street light from a tricycle. But taking it from there to a restaurant chain is something that only happens 0.001% of the time.

I would so happy to be wrong

I have to disagree with the red text. Polestar is a division of Volvo and while they might fail it will have more to do with import tariffs and bans than not making it. Rivian has a pretty solid plan and has a good chance to be net positive on a per vehicle basis in the fourth quarter of this year. They are selling 50K R1's a year this year and did last year as well. Their 5Bn dollar deal with VW, contract with Amazon and the R2 on the horizon leaves a pretty decent path forward for Rivian and while it isn't guaranteed I see a pretty strong chance of them succeeding.