Gravity Delivery Discussion

[gladtbx]

I'm driving friends over to Miami on Sunday, the 16th, to drop them off for a cruise. I called the two Miami Lucid showrooms yesterday to see if either would have a Gravity on view. The Worldcenter showroom is getting one of the pre-production units that has been on the show circuit for the past year back in on February 22, but it can't be driven. Neither showroom still had any word on when they would be getting production units for display and test driving.

If you had told me when orders opened on November 7 that over three months later -- and a month and a half after "customer deliveries" supposedly began -- there would still be no production Gravities in showrooms in Lucid's biggest markets, I would have argued it must be a communications error.

With every passing day I am becoming more convinced that what we're seeing is not the slow ramp Lucid announced but a production holdup of some sort.

And with steel and aluminum tariff hikes a month away, how long can Lucid hold the line on announced pricing?

Once again, as happened with the Air debut, external events are piling up against Lucid's momentum. Tax credits disappearing, NEVI slowdowns or cessation, tariffs looming at both the sourcing and sales ends.

Supercharger access is about the only bright spot right now, and that rides on the whims of a man not known for his stability.

Opening to orders, deliveries, etc are just PR stunt for stock prices.
Lucid cares more about stock price than the customers at the moment.
Personally I don't think this is going to end well.

Supercharger access is about the only bright spot right now, and that rides on the whims of a man not known for his stability.

But hey, at least the stock price is up

 

[HC_79]

I'm driving friends over to Miami on Sunday, the 16th, to drop them off for a cruise. I called the two Miami Lucid showrooms yesterday to see if either would have a Gravity on view. The Worldcenter showroom is getting one of the pre-production units that has been on the show circuit for the past year back in on February 22, but it can't be driven. Neither showroom still had any word on when they would be getting production units for display and test driving.

If you had told me when orders opened on November 7 that over three months later -- and a month and a half after "customer deliveries" supposedly began -- there would still be no production Gravities in showrooms in Lucid's biggest markets, I would have argued it must be a communications error.

With every passing day I am becoming more convinced that what we're seeing is not the slow ramp Lucid announced but a production holdup of some sort.

And with steel and aluminum tariff hikes a month away, how long can Lucid hold the line on announced pricing?

Once again, as happened with the Air debut, external events are piling up against Lucid's momentum. Tax credits disappearing, NEVI slowdowns or cessation, tariffs looming at both the sourcing and sales ends.

Supercharger access is about the only bright spot right now, and that rides on the whims of a man not known for his stability.

Personally, I believe Lucid was aware of a problem and used the “Showroom first” excuse to buy time to rectify whatever issue that was discovered. Why would they prioritize showrooms over fulfilling orders to customers who were willing to purchase the car without the need to see it in person or take a test drive? They could have easily delivered initial orders alongside gradually introducing them to showrooms as their production increased. Let's face it, they don't have a lot of showrooms to fill to warrant a whole quarter to deliver them. The last rumor I saw was to not expect them to start showing up in showrooms until March or April at the earliest.

Lucid can't keep using "external factors" are causing delays as an excuse (if that's what we're going to hear on the upcoming call). At some point in time it has to fall back onto management about how could you have messed this up a second time around. They're not the only one building cars and everyone else seems to be pumping them out. Besides, Lucid doesn't order the individual parts each time a vehicle order comes in so in preparation for opening orders they would have had inventory of parts before the tariffs etc even came into question.

Lucid certainly has engineering tech that no one is close to matching and they're very good about boasting about it. I'm sure we'll hear "best in class" "world leader" many times on the upcoming investors call but what good is it if you continually fail to execute when it comes to getting that tech into customers hands. Yes, Rivian has its issue but damn, for two companies that started producing cars at the same time it's clear which one is the leader here. Rivian doesn't just talk, it delivers.

 

[joec]

Opening to orders, deliveries, etc are just PR stunt for stock prices.
Lucid cares more about stock price than the customers at the moment.
Personally I don't think this is going to end well.

But hey, at least the stock price is up

Not really. I wouldn't call popping to just over $3 a worthwhile PR stunt.

Lucid are very aware opening orders too early would lead to increased cancelations. How did they know this? Because that's exactly what happened with Air.

It seems far more likely Lucid opened orders because they actually thought they'd be delivering by now. And then something held that up by at least a few weeks. Their silence on that matter isn't helping. But it's the most likely explanation.

 

[HC_79]

Not really. I wouldn't call popping to just over $3 a worthwhile PR stunt.

Lucid are very aware opening orders too early would lead to increased cancelations. How did they know this? Because that's exactly what happened with Air.

It seems far more likely Lucid opened orders because they actually thought they'd be delivering by now. And then something held that up by at least a few weeks. Their silence on that matter isn't helping. But it's the most likely explanation.

Yeah, but then they double down on ensuring that it’s presented as “business as usual” by opening orders in KSA and Canada. It’s simply poor optics when you fail to communicate with existing order holders about the situation. Since they’re in a quiet period, it suggests that whatever is happening isn’t minor, as it’s deemed significant enough to potentially impact the stock price.

 

[msaunders9430]

I sure hope the earnings call will provide some answers; clear answers not vague terms that lack details.
If the holdup is meeting quality standards, that's fine but kinda explain. I can appreciate the reason, but details would help.
Quality of supplier parts and logistics (partial reasons for Air delay) should be less of a concern since some operations were brought in-house.

At the very least, the earnings call should provide order numbers broken down by country (US, Canada, and SA).
Not that meaningful, but that should be the info minimum.
Social media posts about Gravity continue.
I'd appreciate a post saying "tweaking production" or something that says "we haven't forgotten you".
Production is the elephant in the room.

Whatever the reason, I suppose customers will do what they did when the Air release was delayed; consider alternatives.
I'll be looking at the GV90 and even the Range Rover ev. Purely because there is no Gravity.
Apart from those two new entries, the R1S lurks in the background.
I don't see GV90 or RR as being a better buy, but ... .

For customers with a time constraint on purchasing, Lucid is losing sales.

Me, I'm really hoping to not be like the lady who waited 8 years for the ID.Buzz.

 

[hmp10]

It seems far more likely Lucid opened orders because they actually thought they'd be delivering by now. And then something held that up by at least a few weeks. Their silence on that matter isn't helping. But it's the most likely explanation.

That's my guess, too. And I'm wondering if it's software, although it could be almost anything. I remember Rawlinson said that at one point Air production got delayed because of something as seemingly inconsequential as a disruption in carpet supply.

 

[Elfin]

And with steel and aluminum tariff hikes a month away, how long can Lucid hold the line on announced pricing?

The price of the raw materials for a $100k car is actually pretty low. A metric ton of aluminum is only $2600. The pricing of the Gravity is already high given that other luxury brands can sell/lease their EVs at a loss.

This ramp is ridiculous though, they should have just delayed the launch until they could actually start making them.

 

[DrZorro]

I'm about 99.9% sure the holdup is all software related and squashing all the bugs is taking longer than expected. The hardware is known to be finalized and I doubt there are too many delays in parts (if so, that would be their fault for mismanaging orders and timelines from suppliers). I suspect they don't want to release the vehicle with half baked software and risk the same negative press over that like the Air did when it was first delivered.

 

[WeighingGravity]

I have a hard time believing that the holdup is software. Maybe if it's some kind of firmware that sits on board components and is not OTA-updateable, but then arguably that's almost a hardware issue and not a software one. The line does not appear to be pumping any cars out. My guess is it's a design or validation or hardware issue. Or a production line readiness one.

Or, as I'm sure someone will tell me soon, there is no problem and everything is on schedule and Lucid has been very clear from the start about the deliveries ramp.....

 

[xponents]

Or, as I'm sure someone will tell me soon, there is no problem and everything is on schedule and Lucid has been very clear from the start about the deliveries ramp.....

Yeah, fully agreed. It is a worrying sign that they can't meet a schedule thats already been postponed once...

 

[Adnillien]

During the Gravity delivery event at the end of December, Peter commented on both software and supplier quality issues and wanting to make sure that both the car and software were top quality before delivering Gravity to "non friends and family" customers. Both software and hardware a probably still an issue. However, supplier quality likely only limits capacity and yield, not the ability to produce in small numbers. If the issue was supplier quality alone, I think we would see a trickle of Gravity showing up at showrooms and provided for press reviews. Hence, my conclusion is software is the primary hold up.

Here are a couple of thoughts counter to that.

The conversion from CCS to NACS was late in the development. This change impacts stamping of both the left-front and left rear panels. There are different grades of stamp tooling. Softer tooling is faster and lower cost but may not be capable of producing many units. Could Lucid be waiting on higher volume production tooling to replace prototype tooling used on the first deliveries? I have no idea but could be a case where hardware is holding up production.

We have not heard rumors about a Dream Edition for a long time. Is that idea dead or is Lucid using this time to fully finish a launch Dream Edition? This is my hope but I am still doubtful on it.

 

[BS8899]

I have a hard time believing that the holdup is software. Maybe if it's some kind of firmware that sits on board components and is not OTA-updateable, but then arguably that's almost a hardware issue and not a software one. The line does not appear to be pumping any cars out. My guess is it's a design or validation or hardware issue. Or a production line readiness one.

Or, as I'm sure someone will tell me soon, there is no problem and everything is on schedule and Lucid has been very clear from the start about the deliveries ramp.....

I wonder if @Adnillien has any recent aerial recon photo of finished vehicles at the Casa Grande plant.

A couple of days ago, I called the Corte Madera showroom, asking if they have (or will have) a Gravity on display. And for that matter, is a Gravity on display anywhere in CA. The representative researched and got back to me...."the only Gravity for public viewing is at the Chicago Auto show".

 

[gladtbx]

I'm about 99.9% sure the holdup is all software related and squashing all the bugs is taking longer than expected. The hardware is known to be finalized and I doubt there are too many delays in parts (if so, that would be their fault for mismanaging orders and timelines from suppliers). I suspect they don't want to release the vehicle with half baked software and risk the same negative press over that like the Air did when it was first delivered.

I disagree. If it is only software we should see some gravity on the factory parking lot. None has been shown up yet.

 

[hmp10]

I disagree. If it is only software we should see some gravity on the factory parking lot. None has been shown up yet.

I think there is plenty of space inside one of the buildings to store Gravities out of sight if they're been produced in small quantities. Lucid knows several YouTube channels are doing drone flyovers looking for Gravities, and they probably wouldn't want to create more speculation about delivery delays than they're already getting.

I love this company generally, but I think it's become time that they say something about why the "slow ramp" they announced would follow on the heels of the December delivery event has not resulted at least in a few display cars in a few Design Studios.

We have not heard rumors about a Dream Edition for a long time. Is that idea dead or is Lucid using this time to fully finish a launch Dream Edition? This is my hope but I am still doubtful on it.

From you mouth to God's ears . . . . If it turns out a delay was to get a Dream Edition (with more power, mind you) off the ground, I will don a scratchy wool tunic and rub ash onto my face in public contrition for having questioned them. (At my age, the ash might be a good idea, anyway.)

 

[hmp10]

The price of the raw materials for a $100k car is actually pretty low. A metric ton of aluminum is only $2600. The pricing of the Gravity is already high given that other luxury brands can sell/lease their EVs at a loss.

Tariffs tend to cause supply dislocations that can have price and other effects beyond the dollar amount of the actual tariff as large-scale customers try to switch to non-tariffed suppliers, creating shortages with them.

I suspect the margins on the Gravity are already very small, particularly on the Touring version, and it won't take much to erode them significantly. There was a lot of discussion here earlier about Gravity pricing, with some focusing on the fact that it can easily cross the $100K line. I am in the camp that the Gravity is actually priced very aggressively for what you get, especially with the need to amortize so much development cost. A few hundred dollars in added cost is a tiny fraction of the selling price. But it could be quite a painful bite out of the forecast margins.

This actually brings up another possible cause for production delays. A Lucid executive (Eric Bach, I think) mentioned recently in passing that they have to focus on warranty costs much more with the Gravity. I suspect warranty costs with the early Airs ate Lucid alive, especially with the need to provide transport of so many cars to remote service centers. If they let the Gravities leave the factory with anything like the warranty exposure they had with the Air, the Gravity could tank them. So there's probably huge pressure to have the Gravity nailed down before the first one gets into a buyer's hands.

 

[hmp10]

This is a Gravity I had not seen yet -- a Lunar Titanium with Yosemite interior. But, as it doesn't have the rear NACS port, it does not seem to be a production version.

 

[DeaneG]

This is a Gravity I had not seen yet -- a Lunar Titanium with Yosemite interior. But, as it doesn't have the rear NACS port, it does not seem to be a production version.

I was wondering how that might look. Portrait video

 

[hmp10]

I was wondering how that might look. Portrait video

It's a nice-looking color. I'd like to see one with Stealth trim and the Ojai interior, which is a combo I'm thinking might replace the Aurora Green I ordered. This was not a car from the L.A. Auto show or one that I've seen anywhere else before this Canadian show. I wonder when it was produced, as the Lucid website is still not showing Lunar Titanium as yet available.

 

[joec]

I like Yosemite interior, but on the Silver I’d go with one of the other colors myself.

 

[Neurio]

This is a Gravity I had not seen yet -- a Lunar Titanium with Yosemite interior. But, as it doesn't have the rear NACS port, it does not seem to be a production version.

Pretty sure that's the Aurora Green prototype that's been making the rounds for a while. There is definitely a green color hue to that Gravity rather than the silver titanium color.