EV investing in general

[rbbarry]

The $LCID Twitter community (which I find fascinating because all they do is praise lucid all day and try to pump up the stock) are super upset with this sound bit from yesterday

 

[MidwestLucidDude]

My opinion is it's very hard to justify the current market valuation of EV companies right now especially when compared to traditional car companies like Ford that are starting to release more EVs.

Market cap as of ~May 04 2022
Lucid - 32B
Ford - 58B

Lucid is a bit more than half of Ford even though current sales are just a fraction of Ford's. There's the argument that Tesla is more of a tech company than a car company so it's valuation is high. I think Tesla is oddball because of it's hype/hope/'it's the future' that attracted so many regular folks investing in it and holding it. Also they have other products too such as solar and charging infrastructure.
Other EV companies' valuation are being compared and treated like Tesla. Would you really consider Lucid more as a tech or car company? What happens when traditional car companies release more EVs? Are they all of a sudden going to be considered as tech companies in terms of valuation? I think not.

1) EV companies will either drop much closer to traditional car companies because really at the end of the day theyre just selling cars
2) Investors somehow start treating traditional car companies like tech companies and will spike up similar to EV companies
3) Both will meet somewhere mid-way through


#1 is my personal take long term for most EV companies. I don't see a Tesla-like run happening anymore as it's kinda late in the game now to hope for that as EV market is starting to get more competition now. Pandemic was also an oddball where we had an influx of retail investors jumping on stock trading and causing the fairy-tale gains we got during pandemic. Short to medium term I can see these EV companies potentially going up but more so depending on overall market. More likely to go down as I think we havent went down enough.

Maybe you're right. But here's a few points that sway my thinking the other way. Stocks get valued somewhat on the companies future potentail. Tesla stock is not worth it based on their current performance but as we just witnessed, Tesla's earnings are knocking it out of the park every quarter. Assuming Tesla keeps that up, the stock is correctly valued.

Lucid is not a tech company (neither is Tesla), but it is a very innovative company. Lucid has incredible efficiency in a very small motor. The Air has the best range by a long shot. I could go on, but the point is the traditional auto companies are behind in the race with electric. Ford may throw billions of dollars at EV and not get it right. Lucid, through the Air, is showing they are ahead in the race for a better car. With that in mind, the only reason Lucid's stock is not higher is because of the question about production and cash burn. If those issues get resolved, the stock should do much better, to the point that Lucid is valued higher than Ford once again.

They may all be just selling cars, but stocks get valued on the future potential of earnings. Every Air Lucid sells is worth 2-3 EVs that Ford will sell. Take a look at the valuation for Ferrari which right now is higher than Lucid. Ferrari sells about 10,000 cars a year. They are not all just cars.

 

[MidwestLucidDude]

The $LCID Twitter community (which I find fascinating because all they do is praise lucid all day and try to pump up the stock) are super upset with this sound bit from yesterday

I'm not sure facinating is the word I'd use for the Lucid Twitter Community. You are right, all you hear is praise. But there is also the retweets of retweets, no real critical thinking, and then there's the folks trying to buy likes. It's all very strange. But everyone should love the fact that Cramer bad mouthed Lucid. With that guys track record, everyone should have taken it as a sign that much better days are ahead.

 

[rbbarry]

I'm not sure facinating is the word I'd use for the Lucid Twitter Community. You are right, all you hear is praise. But there is also the retweets of retweets, no real critical thinking, and then there's the folks trying to buy likes. It's all very strange. But everyone should love the fact that Cramer bad mouthed Lucid. With that guys track record, everyone should have taken it as a sign that much better days are ahead.

The Twitter Lucid community is just that. It is amazing to me because I am super involved in the Google Twitter community and it is nothing like this. All use see in the Lucid Twitter community are folks trying to pump up the stock and get more followers. If anyone says anything negative about the car or company, they go after you like you are the devil. The Google/search community is open about issues, how tos, usage, bugs, etc. Just super weird - but I hear the Tesla Twitter community is similar...

 

[noobzilla]

Market continuing to bleed. Brace for more downsides. Good luck to everyone.

 

[Yugi]

Market continuing to bleed. Brace for more downsides. Good luck to everyone

With no end in sight.

 

[dawktah LucidGT]

LCID down 13%

 

[hydbob]

What a discount to buy!

 

[steveairgt]

What a discount to buy!

I guess it’s only a discount if you think it’s not going to $10.

A month ago I would have said we’ll never see $15, but now I have serious doubts for the short term.

 

[peacenow0]

 

[hydbob]

I guess it’s only a discount if you think it’s not going to $10.

A month ago I would have said we’ll never see $15, but now I have serious doubts for the short term.

Scared money don't make no money!

 

[stevelitchfieldpark]

What a discount to buy!

It was a good buy when it went below 40 and then 30 and then 20. The next great buy is 10?

 

[Sandvinsd]

It was a good buy when it went below 40 and then 30 and then 20. The next great buy is 10?

I have only bought below $20 and purchased some more again today. Will it drop again? I don’t know, but will likely buy more shares if it does.

 

[stevelitchfieldpark]

I have only bought below $20 and purchased some more again today. Will it drop again? I don’t know, but will likely buy more shares if it does.

I bet some of the cancellations were the folks that bought at 40 and even stated that they were buying the Lucid on their profits. Maybe long term buy but sure as hell wasn't short term buy as it is now lower than the very beginning.

 

[dawktah LucidGT]

I am planning on holding till I retire, unless I am advised to get out before then.