EV investing in general

[tuccur]

I'm deep into EV investing and have had a lot of fun with it over the years. I put $5k in Tesla early on, waited a few years, sold half and bought my Model 3 Performance (making it one of the most expensive M3P's ever, if you consider what that stock would be worth now , $2.2 million). Did that again with CCIV/LCID and bought my Dream Edition (and for real, in 10 years that will make my Lucid worth a couple more million I would guess ) and while that's all projection and not really how it works, it's still a fun game to play.

Nevertheless, I have additional investments in multiple EV makers and associated, it's been crazy volatile and I've lost and gained a lot of money over the last 2 years. None of what I'm saying constitutes any investment advice, I am not a professional, and do your own due diligence... but, I have a few stocks I'm hot on and wondering if anyone else is playing this game?

Is it okay to talk about stock tips? Is it okay to talk about the strengths and weakness of other EV stocks? I bet there are some pretty sharp people on here with some good insight. As I said before, each person who reads any of this and decides to invest must completely assume their own risk. No one should ever invest in a stock based on something someone said in an online forum. But I do find it entertaining and sometimes profitable.

 

[EVCar]

It’s absolutely ok with me.
I’d assume this is why this section exists. After all, by definition, a forum is a social media platform and we can socialize in multiple ways, including talking about stocks or whatever.

 

[tuccur]

Perhaps its just for LCID updates and investment news, but the entire segment is set for massive growth in the next 5-10 years. Opportunity like this only comes along once a generation. Many new eco-friendly millionaires (is that an oxymoron) could be minted by this revolution. And it doesn’t take much to get started. Thanks!

 

[AIR.LUCID]

A lot of mutual funds REALLY believe in LCID.

 

[copper]

I’m in the same game. My lucid is partially paid for by several AAPL leaps plays I’ve made. Right now I’m bullish on EVs in general, but focused on who has the right long-term production prospects and product pipeline. Lucid and Rivian both fit the bill.

 

[otslade]

There will be more losers than winners folks! Buyer beware. The traditional OEM’s are pivoting and have the infrastructure to win as well

 

[borski]

There will be more losers than winners folks! Buyer beware. The traditional OEM’s are pivoting and have the infrastructure to win as well

Based on many of the traditional EVs being produced, they haven’t taken the leap of “we don’t have to use existing ICE chassis or bases and shove EV motors in them, and can design them from the ground up.” They have the manufacturing infrastructure for sure, but they lack the years of engineering that went into building EV drivetrains and batteries.

Now if someone like Lucid licenses them the tech (something Peter has expressed as a possibility) then that’s an even larger revenue stream for Lucid. The Air is just a proof of concept for the rest of the industry, in my view, of Lucid as a potential player in the licensing / parts business. They already supply all the batteries and motors for Formula E, so that part of the business is actually well built out.

 

[dawktah LucidGT]

Based on many of the traditional EVs being produced, they haven’t taken the leap of “we don’t have to use existing ICE chassis or bases and shove EV motors in them, and can design them from the ground up.” They have the manufacturing infrastructure for sure, but they lack the years of engineering that went into building EV drivetrains and batteries.

Now if someone like Lucid licenses them the tech (something Peter has expressed as a possibility) then that’s an even larger revenue stream for Lucid. The Air is just a proof of concept for the rest of the industry, in my view, of Lucid as a potential player in the licensing / parts business. They already supply all the batteries and motors for Formula E, so that part of the business is actually well built out.

I kind of get the feeling this is there plan. When you visit website the site hint said something like battery storage company.

 

[borski]

I kind of get the feeling this is there plan. When you visit website the site hint said something like battery storage company.

He’s said as such in interviews previously. Eventual plan is also to offer home battery storage a la Powerwalls, from a previous interview.

Wouldn’t be able to find those now, but it’s at least an open secret if a secret at all.

 

[steveairgt]

I am also heavily into EVs having owned a 2015 model S and currently own a 2018 model X 100D which I intend to sell when my Lucid AGT arrives.

I bought TSLA years ago. I may sell some to pay for the Lucid or maybe use other investments.

I also own for a while: BYDDF, NIO, LCID, and GGPI.

These will all be successful companies and are all (except LCID is in relatively small volume) delivering units in increasing volume.

Go EV!

 

[LCIDdreams]

I am also heavily into EVs having owned a 2015 model S and currently own a 2018 model X 100D which I intend to sell when my Lucid AGT arrives.

I bought TSLA years ago. I may sell some to pay for the Lucid or maybe use other investments.

I also own for a while: BYDDF, NIO, LCID, and GGPI.

These will all be successful companies and are all (except LCID is in relatively small volume) delivering units in increasing volume.

Go EV!

No RIVN?

 

[MidwestLucidDude]

There's other ways to invest in the sector as well. There are the charging companies but those stocks overall have not performed very well so far. But interestingly, I studied Lucid's supply chain last year as much as possible for potential investments. Lucid gets their cells from LG. Well, LG Chem was only listed recently and then only in Korea (KRW) so that is something hard to invest in. But LG signed a five year agreement with Sigma Lithium and that company is listed on the NASDAQ. I invested in that because they are newer to the game and had not yet had the run-up in value that some of the other lithium stocks have had, and they have a very environmentally friendly approach to mining lithium, partly becasue they don't extract brine but are doing solid rock extraction. In the past five months Sigma Lithium has doubled in value. Then I learned that Lucid gets their aluminum form Century Aluminum, a Chicago based company with three smelters in the USA. All these EVs will be using aluminum to save weight because of the weight of the batteries. I'd been considered Century Aluminum since early December last year and for various reasons decided to sit that one out. My bad because that stock has doubled in four months, some of that though is due to the ban on Russian aluminum. Still I've been kicking myself on that one.

Then their is NVIDIA. That is not a stock I'm interested in as it has already had quite the run. But there is Global Foundries, a chip fab supplier to the auto industry that is also based in the USA. Global Foundries stock has been fairly flat, but in my mind it has potential for similar reasons as Sigma Lithium. Global Foundries was just listed last year and has not had a big run-up in value yet. I think that stock has room go grow.

Overall my thinking has evolved to focus on the big value-add suppliers in the EV space. Those will be the batteries and motors, the chassis, and the brains of the vehicles. The rest of it; wheels, glass, leather, carpeting, etc is all fairly basic stuff. As others have said, do your own due diligence and I agree with others that tips on forums should be taken with a big grain of salt.

One other thought on all this. Herein lies part of the inflation issue for EV makers. Big scale industry does not turn on a dime and the EV makers are buying up all the key critical materials they can get their hands on. The results are some of these suppliers' stocks have done quite well, but the down side is the cost of buying an EV is only going to go up in the short term.

 

[steveairgt]

No RIVN?

I don’t believe in Rivian, sorry. Personally I think they’ll continue to struggle. But I am considering Nvidia as they supply many chips especially in autonomous driving, to many EV companies.

 

[LuciPearl]

I am a technical trader rather than an investor in any company. I have never owned LCID, but have frequently traded TSLA, and to a lesser extent NIO, and to a lesser extent XPEV. I've been largely out of the market since the second week of January, though I did test the waters about a month ago and then retreated. I hope to take delivery of an Air GT in about 2-3 months. Been a MB buyer the last 20 years but with Lucid's Saudi backing I don't have the same kind of concerns I have with other EV startups. The combination of that financial backing, management team and product I am purchasing the GT with very little concern about the viability of the Company. If I were an investor I would recognize that any EV company is in a highly competitive industry the next few years, so even though I believe LCID will be a viable long term company market share in the next 2-5 years is just too difficult to predict. As a trader I think there will be many short term trading opportunities, hence, LCID is on my watch list. Regardless of what happens with LCID or the market in general it is very unlikely I would purchase LCID prior to the next earnings report in 28 days. But as Lucid has told me on vehicle updates....my current target to purchase LCID is Q3. (Yes, that was a joke).

 

[Sandvinsd]

Today was a big hit for all the EV makers. With Lucid trading around $17.70, it is probably a good entry point, even if it is before the earnings call next week. I think a lot of the bad news regarding production woes and supply chain issues are now baked into the stock. Still could see a re-test of the post-SPAC merger low of $16.12, but more upside than down at this point.

EDIT: Full disclosure, I am long on LCID and have recently made additional purchases.

 

[steveairgt]

Today was a big hit for all the EV makers. With Lucid trading around $17.70, it is probably a good entry point, even if it is before the earnings call next week. I think a lot of the bad news regarding production woes and supply chain issues are now baked into the stock. Still could see a re-test of the post-SPAC merger low of $16.12, but more upside than down at this point.

EDIT: Full disclosure, I am long on LCID and have recently made additional purchases.

I am also long LCID but I think the current drop in the stock is due to macro economic reasons and nothing to do with Lucid production issues, deliveries etc.
I fully expect it will drop after earnings are released.

 

[Sandvinsd]

I am also long LCID but I think the current drop in the stock is due to macro economic reasons and nothing to do with Lucid production issues, deliveries etc.
I fully expect it will drop after earnings are released.

I agree that the drop is due to macro economic issues, which I think is causing the problems in plant production.

 

[pacific]

EDIT: Full disclosure, I am long on LCID and have recently made additional purchases.

Good timing!
I've just seen the Lucid after-hours announcement, and it looks like the stock price is moving up very nicely.

 

[MarathonGuy]

https://www.lucidmotors.com/media-room/lucid-announces-deal-purchase-electric-vehicles?utm_medium=social&utm_source=linkedin&utm_campaign=purchase-deal-20220426

 

[noobzilla]

My opinion is it's very hard to justify the current market valuation of EV companies right now especially when compared to traditional car companies like Ford that are starting to release more EVs.

Market cap as of ~May 04 2022
Lucid - 32B
Ford - 58B

Lucid is a bit more than half of Ford even though current sales are just a fraction of Ford's. There's the argument that Tesla is more of a tech company than a car company so it's valuation is high. I think Tesla is oddball because of it's hype/hope/'it's the future' that attracted so many regular folks investing in it and holding it. Also they have other products too such as solar and charging infrastructure.
Other EV companies' valuation are being compared and treated like Tesla. Would you really consider Lucid more as a tech or car company? What happens when traditional car companies release more EVs? Are they all of a sudden going to be considered as tech companies in terms of valuation? I think not.

1) EV companies will either drop much closer to traditional car companies because really at the end of the day theyre just selling cars
2) Investors somehow start treating traditional car companies like tech companies and will spike up similar to EV companies
3) Both will meet somewhere mid-way through


#1 is my personal take long term for most EV companies. I don't see a Tesla-like run happening anymore as it's kinda late in the game now to hope for that as EV market is starting to get more competition now. Pandemic was also an oddball where we had an influx of retail investors jumping on stock trading and causing the fairy-tale gains we got during pandemic. Short to medium term I can see these EV companies potentially going up but more so depending on overall market. More likely to go down as I think we havent went down enough.