Brick or Turtle Incidence

[PDiddy]

I appreciate the kind words.

Here’s one good indicator: the lack of a recall. Lucid has been extremely forthcoming with issuing recalls for things that only affect *single digits* of cars, such as the wiring harness issue, or even the tow hook issue that only affected *some* DEs, which would have been a maximum of 520.

That there has been no recall for rear motors or battery packs is a pretty good indicator that the rate of incidence is not widespread, as Lucid has, in the past, issued recalls quite quickly for even much smaller issues.

Thanks, Borski. I appreciate your perspective.

 

[PDiddy]

The problem with a forum like this is that we see the instances where the car suddenly stops on the road but we don't see all the cars that are working perfectly since day one. It is therefore hard to know if the problems are endemic or rare.

Agreed. That is the problem.

 

[Zoef]

Well, if you wanted data the forum moderators could attempt a poll of users of this forum. Not sure what percent would participate and of course there are the questions of whether the forum and the responses are representative samples etc. etc.

Personally I doubt that people suddenly join the forum because they have a massive mechanical issue and are here seeking guidance. The only exception to me would be lurkers who had been regularly following the forum but saw no need to register or post until they had an issue that had not been answered already. But of course you could ask that question in the poll.

 

[borski]

Well, if you wanted data the forum moderators could attempt a poll of users of this forum. Not sure what percent would participate and of course there are the questions of whether the forum and the responses are representative samples etc. etc.

Personally I doubt that people suddenly join the forum because they have a massive mechanical issue and are here seeking guidance. The only exception to me would be lurkers who had been regularly following the forum but saw no need to register or post until they had an issue that had not been answered already. But of course you could ask that question in the poll.

It’s not a scientific poll, but this is an old one: https://lucidowners.com/threads/pol...our-car-was-otherwise-unsafe-to-operate.2350/

11/15 had no failure, 1 had an issue that was resolved and felt confident in it, and 3 had unresolved issues at the time.

People definitely join to vent about concerns or issues, as they are seeking if this is unique to them or not - this is also true in other car forums and Facebook groups. It’s also not limited to cars; this is very common for product groups for all sorts of products. It is human nature.

 

[Dortreo]

I certainly think Borski’s explanation is one possibility, but let’s be honest, the other possibility is the frequency of these drivetrain issues is the same with non-forum members and they’re simply having their cars taken in for service. I think it’s logical that many who are not familiar with this forum will simply call their service advisor rather than researching forums that discuss these things.

Two very plausible scenarios. Unless we got the actual stats from Lucid, which we obviously won’t, we will never know the actual extent of the issue.

Speaking as an epidemiology geek, it is far more likely that the forum members are not representative of the sample of Lucid owners so that the incidence and prevalence of drivetrain issues on this forum are not representative of what‘s actually being seen across all Lucid owners. There are only a few instances where the rates seen in forum members would be the same as the whole owner set. Here are a few:

* The issue is universal or near universal so that underlying characteristics won’t matter.
* The issue is vanishingly rare, so that the differences are just rounding errors.
* A Lucid owner joining the forum is entirely a random event, so that the set of forum members is a random and representative cross section of the entire ownership set. However, we know this to be non-random, as people who seek out online forums to post have different backgrounds and motivations than normal owners.
* Finally, there is the issue of underreporting bias: Consumers with extreme positive or extreme negative experiences with a product are more likely to post about them. However, in this case, people with extreme negative experiences (e.g., drivetrain failure) are the only ones who post. So far, except for @hydbob, no one with a positive drivetrain experience has posted about it. So, short of a poll and preferably one with equal incentives for those with negative and positive experiences to respond, you won’t get an accurate picture from this forum.

 

[Lucken]

Speaking as an epidemiology geek, it is far more likely that the forum members are not representative of the sample of Lucid owners so that the incidence and prevalence of drivetrain issues on this forum are not representative of what‘s actually being seen across all Lucid owners. There are only a few instances where the rates seen in forum members would be the same as the whole owner set. Here are a few:

* The issue is universal or near universal so that underlying characteristics won’t matter.
* The issue is vanishingly rare, so that the differences are just rounding errors.
* A Lucid owner joining the forum is entirely a random event, so that the set of forum members is a random and representative cross section of the entire ownership set. However, we know this to be non-random, as people who seek out online forums to post have different backgrounds and motivations than normal owners.
* Finally, there is the issue of underreporting bias: Consumers with extreme positive or extreme negative experiences with a product are more likely to post about them. However, in this case, people with extreme negative experiences (e.g., drivetrain failure) are the only ones who post. So far, except for @hydbob, no one with a positive drivetrain experience has posted about it. So, short of a poll and preferably one with equal incentives for those with negative and positive experiences to respond, you won’t get an accurate picture from this forum.

I’m just not sure I buy into the idea that those with serious powertrain issues would seek out an enthusiast forum for answers. Most people don’t join forums, period. I’ve lost track of how many owners of different cars that I’ve spoken to, over many years, don’t even know these forums exist (nor do they care).

My logic, flawed or not, leads me to believe most individuals suffering from a catastrophic drivetrain issue are going to call Lucid’s help line or, if close to a service facility, limp to that facility. I can’t imagine many scenarios where the driver, experiencing a drivetrain failure on i95, turns to his significant other and says, “Sweetheart, can you google up some car forums for us to check?”. I think the more rational response is, “Sweetheart where’s that damn Lucid emergency number, hurry!”

On a brighter note, I’m finally scheduled for my first test drive on Thursday, weather permitting.

 

[joec]

I’m just not sure I buy into the idea that those with serious powertrain issues would seek out an enthusiast forum for answers. Most people don’t join forums, period. I’ve lost track of how many owners of different cars that I’ve spoken to, over many years, don’t even know these forums exist (nor do they care).

My logic, flawed or not, leads me to believe most individuals suffering from a catastrophic drivetrain issue are going to call Lucid’s help line or, if close to a service facility, limp to that facility. I can’t imagine many scenarios where the driver, experiencing a drivetrain failure on i95, turns to his significant other and says, “Sweetheart, can you google up some car forums for us to check?”. I think the more rational response is, “Sweetheart where’s that damn Lucid emergency number, hurry!”

Well, of course. But then, after Lucid tows them and they get home, and a few days have gone by without an immediate resolution, you can bet your butt they start seeking answers on the internet. Has anyone else seen this problem? I wonder if this is going to take months. This company is pretty new. Maybe this is a widespread issue. And on and on.

 

[AirDoll]

So far, except for @hydbob, no one with a positive drivetrain experience has posted about it.

Well for transparency, I tried posting about my non-issue successful errands and fun driving experiences but was pretty much called a "fanboy" for it. Which is wrong on a few levels, haha!

 

[Lucken]

Well, of course. But then, after Lucid tows them and they get home, and a few days have gone by without an immediate resolution, you can bet your butt they start seeking answers on the internet. Has anyone else seen this problem? I wonder if this is going to take months. This company is pretty new. Maybe this is a widespread issue. And on and on.

Joe, I’m just not sure. Those buying a Lucid will generally be older than your typical car buyer and, I suspect, less likely to begin searching the internet. I think in many cases they’ll simply ask a service advisor, ‘Hey, does this kind of thing happen with any regularity?’

The truth could reside somewhere between your and my scenarios.

One thing I can say with certainty, I’m not seeing this kind of drivetrain failure frequency on the BMW i4 forums…not even close.

 

[borski]

Well, of course. But then, after Lucid tows them and they get home, and a few days have gone by without an immediate resolution, you can bet your butt they start seeking answers on the internet. Has anyone else seen this problem? I wonder if this is going to take months. This company is pretty new. Maybe this is a widespread issue. And on and on.

Precisely this. Of course they’re not seeking it out while they’re on the highway; but once it’s in the shop and out of their garage, the question of “how long will this take” comes up and they end up here.

Once again, whether you buy it or not, I’ve seen it time and time again across forums and Facebook groups across many product categories.

 

[borski]

Joe, I’m just not sure. Those buying a Lucid will generally be older than your typical car buyer and, I suspect, less likely to begin searching the internet. I think in many cases they’ll simply ask a service advisor, ‘Hey, does this kind of thing happen with any regularity?’

The truth could reside somewhere between your and my scenarios.

One thing I can say with certainty, I’m not seeing this kind of drivetrain failure frequency on the BMW i4 forums…not even close.

Another non-scientific poll, but 57% of the respondents on this forum are 50+: https://lucidowners.com/threads/how-old-are-you-in-years…not-in-attitude.1733/

Older people do know how to use the Internet, after all, especially if they’re buying a high-tech EV.

 

[Lucken]

Another non-scientific poll, but 57% of the respondents on this forum are 50+: https://lucidowners.com/threads/how-old-are-you-in-years…not-in-attitude.1733/

Older people do know how to use the Internet, after all, especially if they’re buying a high-tech EV.

Of course they know how to use the internet, but on average they’re generally not as technically proficient as those that have grown up with this technology. Trust me, I’m quite senior and my friends acknowledge I’m the most technically proficient in our group.

I’m not saying, obviously, that none of them will seek answers on the internet, but I’m simply saying not as many will as those in their 30s as an example. I’ve seen it and experienced it.

 

[borski]

Of course they know how to use the internet, but on average they’re generally not as technically proficient as those that have grown up with this technology. Trust me, I’m quite senior and my friends acknowledge I’m the most technically proficient in our group.

I’m not saying, obviously, that none of them will seek answers on the internet, but I’m simply saying not as many will as those in their 30s as an example. I’ve seen it and experienced it.

I mean, the poll would seem to indicate (small scale, granted) that plenty do.

Also, a search for “drivetrain malfunction” on the i4 forums returns 314 pages of content, as is definitely the most common reliability issue with the i4: https://www.i4talk.com/search/114445/?q=Drivetrain+malfunction&o=relevance

So, anyway, I think we’ve beaten this dead horse to death, and I think we can move on.

 

[stratus]

Another non-scientific poll, but 57% of the respondents on this forum are 50+: https://lucidowners.com/threads/how-old-are-you-in-years…not-in-attitude.1733/

Older people do know how to use the Internet, after all, especially if they’re buying a high-tech EV.

I just figured out how to google yesterday. Total intellectual breakthrough for me.

 

[Lucken]

I mean, the poll would seem to indicate (small scale, granted) that plenty do.

Also, a search for “drivetrain malfunction” on the i4 forums returns 314 pages of content, as is definitely the most common reliability issue with the i4: https://www.i4talk.com/search/114445/?q=Drivetrain+malfunction&o=relevance

So, anyway, I think we’ve beaten this dead horse to death, and I think we can move on.

Just a note, most of those i4 drivetrain malfunctions are warning lights that clear with a reset, not actual failures.

 

[Lucken]

I just figured out how to google yesterday. Total intellectual breakthrough for me.

Some might say a total intellectual failure, but that’s for another thread when we discuss Google.

 

[CLTGT]

Another non-scientific poll, but 57% of the respondents on this forum are 50+: https://lucidowners.com/threads/how-old-are-you-in-years…not-in-attitude.1733/

Older people do know how to use the Internet, after all, especially if they’re buying a high-tech EV.

OK, so now you are calling me "older people". I am offended.

 

[Lucken]

OK, so now you are calling me "older people". I am offended.

Better than ‘ancient’.

 

[borski]

Just a note, most of those i4 drivetrain malfunctions are warning lights that clear with a reset, not actual failures.

I mean:

Drive Train Error

www.i4talk.com

Report your i4 problems.

www.i4talk.com

re-programming after "drivetrain malfunction&quot...

www.i4talk.com

Drivetrain malfunction

www.i4talk.com

Alarm Went Off for no Apparent reason, multiple...

www.i4talk.com

My i4 edrive 40 has stopped working!

www.i4talk.com

Do You Think They Rushed This Model To Market?

www.i4talk.com

My point isn’t to shit on the i4; I’m sure it’s a great car. My point is very much the opposite - all cars have failures. In fact, they are having the *very same* discussion we are. Here’s a few quotes from the last thread I linked:

The problem with a forum like this is that many small issues that only hit a few cars becomes known - and then everyone gets uncertain (Battery recall was approx 76 cars out of more than 10000 built - iX + i4).
The overheating issue that a few owners have seen - and also documented on youtube is not unique to the i4 - The i3 have had the issue since 2013 - but most people dont have any real issues with it) KIA and Volkswagen have the same issues.
When the BMW i3 was new there was issues and recalls about the motormounts. That was fixed. My 2019 I3 with 95000km - have had no issues, but soon need new brakepads and tires.
The most critical undeveloped part of the i4 is the software - and that has improved in the last year - and will probably be improved in the years to come - OTA.”

People get online specifically to complain and ask for help.

Nobody gets online to say "Welp, todays was the 123rd day with no problems." Unless you are 100% comitted to this car, and no other will do, I recommend that you steer clear of threads where people have come to gripe.

Reading a forum about ANY specific car will quickly make you believe that particular car is a steaming pile of garbage.

I speak from personal experience: I read too many forum posts and rejected what was almost certainly a perfectly acceptable Polestar 2.

I've only had my car a week, but I have had no problems. That is simply not the kind of attention-grabbing newsflash that anyone cares about online.

Most of what the internet attracts is complaints about products. It is a place to vent and get some commiseration with the issues being experienced. It is great to get educated, but these complaints have to be taken somewhat with a grain of salt as they are without comparison to the big picture.

At that point I got bored reading about a car I don’t own.

My point is simply that neither the failures / issues nor the griping about them is unique to Lucid, or to these forums. Furthermore, said griping is also over represented, in general, in any discussion group about any product - it is largely why people seek out groups just like this one, and very few people post their positive reactions day-to-day, but people with issues will often post to let off steam, commiserate, or discover if they’re alone in their failures.

Perhaps we’ll simply agree to disagree.

 

[borski]

OK, so now you are calling me "older people". I am offended.

Hey, older than me! (I’m 35)