LCID just went below $8
- Thread starter noobzilla
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Possible, but unlikely to get that low. The present price in the 6's is a good entry point IMO.
I’m banking on fourth quarter numbers to be disappointing
What is your source?
Just a hunch…,
We will see
Supply chain issues/ delays/ cancellations/ employee discounts. I live 15 min from AZ factory
drive past it 4-5 times a week. It’s a pretty amazing place.
Sid432
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I suspect that they have already produced their 7k reduced guidance, if not more. However, there would still be high gap between produced vs delivered. I don’t expect the stock to go much in either direction. Honestly, 2023 guidance would be the one to watch. New factory, gravity, delivering Pures, S/W improvements etc. Oh and AA and CarPlay. Just my take.
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Possible, but trying to catch the bottom is a difficult thing to do, and if it does not go down, then you miss possible upside.
But I will never tell anyone else what to do in timing stocks as even the experts frequently get it wrong.
All good here. If I miss it by a dollar so it’s not a big deal I’ve lost some $ already buying at $15 I’m in for the long-haul
I still own 80% of my tesla stock I’ve owned since 2014.
Thx
Happy new year
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I posted at another thread, thought I should post here as well….
Imo, I think Lucid as first year production EV, they exceeded Tesla’s first year 2009 at approximately 6000 units. But Lucid is now having building order reservation issue facing recession.
By the end of 2009, Tesla had sold 937 Roadsters and they didn’t really make it that great. It was mostly done by Lotus Motors. Elon is good business man leveraging others’ resources instead of building using own $. Unlike Tesla’s execution at beginning, Lucid started off burning huge of their own $$ making factory and R&D.
2012, Model S was delivered 3100 production leveraging from GM bankrupted asset Freemont Factory. Tesla was hoping GM will just roll over and play dead to close more factories and let Tesla buy them out to save more cost. Not so fast! Tesla has already best profit margin out of all car makers. But that will be eroded hard with so many EVs coming into market. Market is going to be very competitive 2023 and forward, Tesla cannot keep raising price anymore with lesser materials but piggybacking on driver-assist techs and supercharging network to demand that kind of margin forever.
When Lucid Air Pure comes to production, people will realize $87,400 of most basic Air Pure is more attractive than the most basic Model-S at $104,990 not even come with basic charging cable. Even the most basic $69,900 Model-Y Performance doesn’t look attractive price next to Air Pure. Elon has leveraged Tesla forward earning valuation stock price to start his personal Twitter endeavor. Maybe he hopes to sell Twitter to back to Tesla one day when Twitter is reorganized to have more attractive valuation. But meanwhile, Elon will be facing multiple margin calls very soon and more liquidation to keep afloat.
I personally think Tesla make good cars, but it is a bit on overpriced side compare to all the new products out there. Elon has to lower his ego to adjust Tesla products to new market condition. Personally, I like to see both Lucid and Tesla succeed long term.
Imo, I think Lucid as first year production EV, they exceeded Tesla’s first year 2009 at approximately 6000 units. But Lucid is now having building order reservation issue facing recession.
By the end of 2009, Tesla had sold 937 Roadsters and they didn’t really make it that great. It was mostly done by Lotus Motors. Elon is good business man leveraging others’ resources instead of building using own $. Unlike Tesla’s execution at beginning, Lucid started off burning huge of their own $$ making factory and R&D.
2012, Model S was delivered 3100 production leveraging from GM bankrupted asset Freemont Factory. Tesla was hoping GM will just roll over and play dead to close more factories and let Tesla buy them out to save more cost. Not so fast! Tesla has already best profit margin out of all car makers. But that will be eroded hard with so many EVs coming into market. Market is going to be very competitive 2023 and forward, Tesla cannot keep raising price anymore with lesser materials but piggybacking on driver-assist techs and supercharging network to demand that kind of margin forever.
When Lucid Air Pure comes to production, people will realize $87,400 of most basic Air Pure is more attractive than the most basic Model-S at $104,990 not even come with basic charging cable. Even the most basic $69,900 Model-Y Performance doesn’t look attractive price next to Air Pure. Elon has leveraged Tesla forward earning valuation stock price to start his personal Twitter endeavor. Maybe he hopes to sell Twitter to back to Tesla one day when Twitter is reorganized to have more attractive valuation. But meanwhile, Elon will be facing multiple margin calls very soon and more liquidation to keep afloat.
I personally think Tesla make good cars, but it is a bit on overpriced side compare to all the new products out there. Elon has to lower his ego to adjust Tesla products to new market condition. Personally, I like to see both Lucid and Tesla succeed long term.
Tesla is in the best shape of almost any auto company out there look at the balance sheet compared to others. We could go into a deep recession, and they will still stay afloat. Cash is king.
They have the ability to maneuver on the fly. There was a recent article that can be found on Google. It had odds of EV car companies going bankrupt in 2023 and 2024. Tesla was not mentioned.
Fisker 30% Rivian 40% Lucid 33%
Teams it for what’s it worth.
I’m buying more Lucid & TSLA after earnings.
I’m feeling both will be on sale.
KySerenity
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The near future will be very interesting for Tesla. With Zeekr and Nio having released very good EVs in China and Europe priced much lower than Tesla, sales have plunged in China with the Shanghai plant closed for an extended holiday period. As many of you know, the Zeekr and Nio will soon release EVs with 150kw CATL batteries with a range of 621 miles. CATL also supplies batteries for Tesla in Shanghai and easily can provide this technology to Tesla. If Tesla does not improve their range and quality SOON, they will not need a factory in Shanghai. If they increase their range in the models made in China, it will difficult for them to not follow suit in the US (although it will be tough for Tesla 4680 batteries to match the batteries made by CATL). Technology moving forward quickly.
Go keep dreaming. Why so greedy when it’s priced at $6?? More greedy you get, the more you lose out. Buy now, it won’t go below $6
Ball saysNoseyReporter
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Unfortunately Lucids price will nearly always follow Tesla trend wise. Tesla is the big daddy, and almost all EV tickers will follow it's price action. I honestly suspect Tesla will go sub 100 in 2023; 65 is possible, probably in H1 of 2023.
If lucid doesn't buck the trend in following Tesla, lower prices are likely coming.
It's encouraging to see lucid continue to ramp production, work on improving software and to have the PIF continue to back it's capital requirements. However, navigating the company during a possible recession will be tough as luxury goods becomes less desirable. Then there is the ongoing expansion. While others are tightening their purses to weather out the recession Lucid will be burning money to expand production and extend it's reach into other markets. It's a big gamble and it's needs to pay off.
Maybe...the Saudi government accelerates it's 50,000+50,000 Air order to help Lucid. I think the originally agreement is only for 1000-2000 in the first year. I would love to see them come out and say that they will take delivery of 10k+ units in 2023.
If lucid doesn't buck the trend in following Tesla, lower prices are likely coming.
It's encouraging to see lucid continue to ramp production, work on improving software and to have the PIF continue to back it's capital requirements. However, navigating the company during a possible recession will be tough as luxury goods becomes less desirable. Then there is the ongoing expansion. While others are tightening their purses to weather out the recession Lucid will be burning money to expand production and extend it's reach into other markets. It's a big gamble and it's needs to pay off.
Maybe...the Saudi government accelerates it's 50,000+50,000 Air order to help Lucid. I think the originally agreement is only for 1000-2000 in the first year. I would love to see them come out and say that they will take delivery of 10k+ units in 2023.
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I think we are very near the point where the traders will decide that shorting LCID involves more risk than reward.
When the stock was in the low teens I pegged a totally arbitrary entry point of $5.50, and now I'm starting to feel like the converse of my description of the shorts: do i really want to hold out for another buck and risk that it rallies to $8--9?
Next week's trading should be interesting
NoseyReporter
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FWIW I have all my shares up for security lending. I can tell you someone just borrowed all of it last week and it hasn't been returned.
I'm looking to add to my position, I'm just hanging on to a position in MAXR hoping for a higher BO price. Their go shop clause ends in Feb so I'm praying Lucid doesn't pop in the next 30-45 days.
I do not trade the stock market but am actively involved in a lot of businesses and startups so I very well know the internals of business financial trends right now. Here is my take on lucid - It has not bottomed out yet and won't bottom out till probably mid of 2023. Don't underestimate the power of a 25 or 50 basis interest rate hike on a small company like lucid. Personally over the past 8 months my monthly obligations have gone up by around 70k a month due the interest rate hikes. They will come down eventually. The most stable bond ( 5 year ) has fluctuated significantly this year as well which a lot of companies use as their benchmark for borrowing. They need to build that revenue number really fast compared to what they had a year ago in projections and I do not see that happening with the current state of affairs
Other than that it's not going to bankrupt or die off. The technology Lucid has is very lucrative and is currently majority of the company value rather than it's PNL imo. Also the backing of the PIF is never going to let it die. Shares might become diluted and PIF might pump more money into it to keep it afloat at a cost to retail investor.
I am a product user and have put my money only to the product that I believe will survive. For the stock, If I was to trade I am not going in until after 1Q 2023 to build up a sizable portion in the company. Free money has ended and with that also the extra money people had to make those risky bets. Between Lucid and Rivian, Lucid currently, has a lot technology wise than Rivian but Rivian has a more mass market product and the environment currently for at least next 12 months is survival rather than growth. Whoever is walking in more stabilized is going to come out least harmed
Other than that it's not going to bankrupt or die off. The technology Lucid has is very lucrative and is currently majority of the company value rather than it's PNL imo. Also the backing of the PIF is never going to let it die. Shares might become diluted and PIF might pump more money into it to keep it afloat at a cost to retail investor.
I am a product user and have put my money only to the product that I believe will survive. For the stock, If I was to trade I am not going in until after 1Q 2023 to build up a sizable portion in the company. Free money has ended and with that also the extra money people had to make those risky bets. Between Lucid and Rivian, Lucid currently, has a lot technology wise than Rivian but Rivian has a more mass market product and the environment currently for at least next 12 months is survival rather than growth. Whoever is walking in more stabilized is going to come out least harmed
Wow LCID down 9% so far today. Sad face!
Tesla down 14%. I mean I'm sure many are waiting for 2023 for the EV credit to kick in for the Model Y hence one reason of poor Q4 sales (and of course overall economy). I wonder how Lucid did in Q4.
Tesla down 14%. I mean I'm sure many are waiting for 2023 for the EV credit to kick in for the Model Y hence one reason of poor Q4 sales (and of course overall economy). I wonder how Lucid did in Q4.
