LCID just went below $8

[digiboxer]

LOL

Yes, if corporate leadership makes good decisions it is good for shareholders.

IF corporate leadership makes bad decisions it is bad for shareholders.

Most knowledgably investors understand that Lucid is a startup in a capital intensive business. There is going to be "cash burn" funding operating deficits. For years.

Just like Tesla. Yes, there is no guarantee Lucid will see future profits like current Tesla profits.

LOL indeed..so tell us---how far will that latest $1B go? To CF break-even? If not, why only 1B....

 

[borski]

LOL indeed..so tell us---how far will that latest $1B go? To CF break-even? If not, why only 1B....

Building new things often requires many rounds of investment. You raise in subsequent rounds because you show progress between them, increasing your valuation and thus decreasing your dilution. Tesla did the same thing, as does every startup on the planet that has either high capital costs or is focused on growth.

It’s not rocket science (unless your startup is SpaceX )

 

[digiboxer]

Building new things often requires many rounds of investment. You raise in subsequent rounds because you show progress between them, increasing your valuation and thus decreasing your dilution. Tesla did the same thing, as does every startup on the planet that has either high capital costs or is focused on growth.

It’s not rocket science (unless your startup is SpaceX )

Totally agree…been there, etc. if you use the new capital to build value you win. If you use it to fund greater-than-budgeted operating deficits you’re reducing shareholder value.

 

[borski]

Totally agree…been there, etc. if you use the new capital to build value you win. If you use it to fund greater-than-budgeted operating deficits you’re reducing shareholder value.

They are not mutually exclusive. It’s not like they had zero cash on hand and then chose to raise. Funding operating deficits while also creating value is the right play.

 

[Shuasha]

Good run the past couple of days. Back up to $8.

Hopefully they release good production numbers and it continues.

 

[HariK]

Tesla averages $51k revenue per car and gross margin is Q2 2022 was 33%. Market cap is now $383B. They delivered total 1.3M units.
1.3M * 51k $383B market cap.
If Tesla sold let us say say 500k Unit for 125k ARPU the market cap would be $383B.

LCID delivered say 7k units in 2022. Market cap now $12B. Average revenue per car last year was probably 125k. In 2023 ARPU for Lucid could come down to say 115k and total units sold would jump to 20k.

If Lucid follows the valuation of Tesla
and sells 20K units in 22 vs Tesla 500k units for the same ARPU (theoretically) the market cap of Lucid would be $383/25 which makes it about $15B.

What that tells me is Lucid needs to build 40k units for a market cap to be $30B.

 

[Shuasha]

Tesla averages $51k revenue per car and gross margin is Q2 2022 was 33%. Market cap is now $383B. They delivered total 1.3M units.
1.3M * 51k $383B market cap.
If Tesla sold let us say say 500k Unit for 125k ARPU the market cap would be $383B.

LCID delivered say 7k units in 2022. Market cap now $12B. Average revenue per car last year was probably 125k. In 2023 ARPU for Lucid could come down to say 115k and total units sold would jump to 20k.

If Lucid follows the valuation of Tesla
and sells 20K units in 22 vs Tesla 500k units for the same ARPU (theoretically) the market cap of Lucid would be $383/25 which makes it about $15B.

What that tells me is Lucid needs to build 40k units for a market cap to be $30B.

And with their factory expansion in AZ (Q1 finish timeframe, but who knows when production would start there) and the factory started in Saudi Arabia, they should be able to push past 40k pretty easily in a year or two.

I wonder what the margins are for Lucid right now per car.

 

[HariK]

And with their factory expansion in AZ (Q1 finish timeframe, but who knows when production would start there) and the factory started in Saudi Arabia, they should be able to push past 40k pretty easily in a year or two.

I wonder what the margins are for Lucid right now per car.

Also, I do think that the valuation of Tesla with a PE of 37 is a bit much now and the PE needs to be no more than 25% to 30% above that of S & P 500 which is 20.5. That makes the PE to be around 26 for Tesla.

 

[quantum]

Tesla averages $51k revenue per car and gross margin is Q2 2022 was 33%. Market cap is now $383B. They delivered total 1.3M units.
1.3M * 51k $383B market cap.
If Tesla sold let us say say 500k Unit for 125k ARPU the market cap would be $383B.

LCID delivered say 7k units in 2022. Market cap now $12B. Average revenue per car last year was probably 125k. In 2023 ARPU for Lucid could come down to say 115k and total units sold would jump to 20k.

If Lucid follows the valuation of Tesla
and sells 20K units in 22 vs Tesla 500k units for the same ARPU (theoretically) the market cap of Lucid would be $383/25 which makes it about $15B.

What that tells me is Lucid needs to build 40k units for a market cap to be $30B.

Tesla margins around 25% not 33% from what I read. With recent price cuts, margins will be lower. You also have to understand when selling luxury, you cant cheapen out the car the way Tesla does. Lucid target market want better quality that will drive a lot of Tesla buyers to Lucid.

 

[quantum]

Also, I do think that the valuation of Tesla with a PE of 37 is a bit much now and the PE needs to be no more than 25% to 30% above that of S & P 500 which is 20.5. That makes the PE to be around 26 for Tesla.

Agree, I see Tesla stock still struggling...below $100 not out of the question

 

[quantum]

That’s not good for current shareholders though. The more money the Saudis pump in the more existing shareholders get diluted. (And the larger the Saudi govt stake becomes, although at 2/3 owner other shareholders already won’t get much of a voice on anything that goes to shareholder vote).

What I meant was brankruptcy will never happen, Saudi will protect

 

[quantum]

LOL

Yes, if corporate leadership makes good decisions it is good for shareholders.

IF corporate leadership makes bad decisions it is bad for shareholders.

Most knowledgably investors understand that Lucid is a startup in a capital intensive business. There is going to be "cash burn" funding operating deficits. For years.

Just like Tesla. Yes, there is no guarantee Lucid will see future profits like current Tesla profits.

Lucid profits margins per car may equate or be higher than Tesla, average price per car is almost doble that of Tesla

 

[Tesla2.0]

Tesla averages $51k revenue per car and gross margin is Q2 2022 was 33%. Market cap is now $383B. They delivered total 1.3M units.
1.3M * 51k $383B market cap.
If Tesla sold let us say say 500k Unit for 125k ARPU the market cap would be $383B.

LCID delivered say 7k units in 2022. Market cap now $12B. Average revenue per car last year was probably 125k. In 2023 ARPU for Lucid could come down to say 115k and total units sold would jump to 20k.

If Lucid follows the valuation of Tesla
and sells 20K units in 22 vs Tesla 500k units for the same ARPU (theoretically) the market cap of Lucid would be $383/25 which makes it about $15B.

What that tells me is Lucid needs to build 40k units for a market cap to be $30B.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1612860717002285058

40k annual production is not if, but when.

 

[Tesla2.0]

Lucid profits margins per car may equate or be higher than Tesla, average price per car is almost doble that of Tesla

Not sure about that. Tesla increased margin by deleting assembly stations, emphasized on intrinsic software and supercharging station value. Lucid on the hand has real hardware cost in expensive glass, built materials and increased assembly stations and QA.

 

[MoniputerLM]

Lucid profits margins per car may equate or be higher than Tesla, average price per car is almost doble that of Tesla

There is no way that Lucid can make cars with the same margin as Tesla. Maybe in 2-3 years but not now.

 

[HariK]

Tesla margins around 25% not 33% from what I read. With recent price cuts, margins will be lower. You also have to understand when selling luxury, you cant cheapen out the car the way Tesla does. Lucid target market want better quality that will drive a lot of Tesla buyers to Lucid.

The 33% was in q2 2022 BTW

 

[HariK]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1612860717002285058

40k annual production is not if, but when.

The thing is time is important. The stock appreciation depends on growth in revenue. 40k by 24 60k by 25 and so on

 

[JillyBean]

Ended up picking some more lucid early this month $6.17 3K shares and added another 200 TSLA shares at $103. Like them both

 

[joec]

Can we rename this thread to "LCID just went ABOVE $8"?

 

[Volund]

I don't even look at my EV stocks anymore. They've all tanked. Nothing alarming about Lucid today as RIVN and TSLA are down also

Yep, I day trade and for a our 6 months now have been taking a break from trading lol
Not worth it in this market unless you're getting far out leaps.

Or just putting money aside every month in value stocks, in which case, it's long term so current price shouldn't even matter