Wait for used Airs? Depreciation

[noobzilla]

Anyone deciding to just hold it out and wait to buy a used Air after 2 or 3 years from now? Seems unlikely since used cars wont qualify for 7500 tax credit and we live in a weird time where some EVs are even appreciating in value (what?!).

I told myself in the past that I'm never going to buy a car brand new and get massive discount on used models even just 2 years old. As I was driving thinking about my Air reservation I remembered what I told myself before and wondered. Like would a $102k Touring drop to $70k in 3 years? Perhaps a Grand Touring from $139k to $100k? Of course there's a ton of variables. I wonder what people are predicting in terms of depreciation?

I checked some older 2018-2019 Model S. A $100k MSRP 2019 Model S Performance with 40k miles selling for $85k. $135K 2018 P100D with 55k mi for $77k. Tesla did a lot of price cuts and I can't tell exactly the original purchase price of these used S's. Some said they had about 40-50% depreciation in 3-4 years especially for the higher performance models like that 2018 P100D.

 

[Slam08]

We live in a strange time when many EVs gain value because of low volumes. People are willing to pay more for one now than wait a few months. There is dream edition for sale near near me for $260k.

Hard to predict what used car values are going to be in 2-3 years.

I think early editions will still be devalued because in 3-5 years there will prolly be newer models with less bugs and some new features.

But the market is strange and these are strange times. Who knows.

 

[HC_79]

It’s a luxury car also and they depreciate quicker than others. I look at it this way….. if I paid $100K for a car and in 3 years time sold it for $70K then I got a luxury car for $30K. Easier to swallow with that cost analysis, lol!

 

[Sandvinsd]

Hard to predict what used car values are going to be in 2-3 years.

I think early editions will still be devalued because in 3-5 years there will prolly be newer models with less bugs and some new features.

The technology increases will drive devaluation over time. Faster chips and CPUs will make the older versions obsolete, e.g. phones.

 

[CraZ8]

I bought a demo raven Tesla with 2500 miles and got $12000 off the sticker with free lifetime non transferable charging and transferable FSD. It had a black interior which I hated though. I would have kept that but I ran across a lucid prototype and was smitten. I sold it one year ago after 45 k miles and two years of ownership for 19k less than I bought it for to a guy that totaled his S and had an 8 month wait for a X. Prices shot up for used cars soon after and I noticed my car on the Tesla motor club forum for sale. The guy got greedy and tried to market it for 12 grand more than he paid me after owning for 8 months but got only nibbles. He kept dropping the price over the next 5 months to as the market slipped but I never saw a sold notice. It’s final pice was 3 grand less than what he paid me. I think he remained just a little higher than market value discounting a couple grand every several weeks and then people get suspicious of a stale listing ( why won’t this car sell?) he would have made money if he had been a bit more reasonable on the onset but the car was nicely optioned and had a lot of extras I added on.

 

[hmp10]

The technology increases will drive devaluation over time. Faster chips and CPUs will make the older versions obsolete, e.g. phones.

When we traded our 2015 Model S P90D for a 2021 Model S Plaid, the improvements in the new car were only on the margins. Yes, there were a lot of changes in details, many of them driven by hardware and software advancements. But in terms of using the car as a fast, safe, comfortable, and pleasurable driving device, I'd say the 2015 Tesla delivered at least 95% of what the 2021 does. That is hardly obsolescence.

I think the things that will significantly change the "obsolescence curve" that EVs share with ICE cars are: a real breakthrough in battery technology that yields massive advances in range and charging speeds, and the advent of true full self-driving (not that Level 2 marketing hoax that Tesla is perpetrating as "FSD").